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2 losses,30 winners, out of 32 trades

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:30am Feb 6, 2010 4:19am | Edited 4:30am
I have finally knacked the market. Finally found out an edge.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/6647/part1vw.jpg

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1980/part2i.jpg

This is on mbt, real live account.

Here is my iq as well.

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/8544/fuckingiq.jpg


about me: been trading currencies since i was 18, im now 24, so been doing it for 6 years. Im finally getting consistent results. Have an msc in economics.


My system:

Never adding to a winner or to a loser. No fixed tp or stop losses. My philosophy is to get in, and get out when i think it is optimal. I try to preserve capital, so i get out very quickly to minimze my losses. Holding to a losing trade have been my worst enemy for a long time.

Only price action. Not a single indicator, beside bollinger bands. I put very much weight on whether it is trending, oversold,overbought.

Im also taking into account fundamentals. I never listen to any signals, tips on internet. Only following my own ideas on where the price is going.

After 6 years:

all indicators are shit. And no one knows for sure where the price is heading. You can only speculate.

My worst enemies have been having false opinions about where the price is going such as:

it must go down, becuse it is trending down, because...etc, which has harmed my trading.

Instead: you have to be open for all possibilities, like it can go upp or down, however, a higher chanse it is going up,because this and this have happened. With experience, you will interpret,see things more clearly without false opinions and views. This will take experience.
  • #2
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:23am Feb 6, 2010 4:23am
kudos 2 you bro
  • #3
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:36am Feb 6, 2010 4:36am
Thanks. YOu can easily profit from this market, because the market is trending,

FOr instance.

Only use trend following strategies, but ONLY WHEN THE MARKET IS TRENDING.Dont do it, if it is consolidating.

If it is consolidating, pick bottoms,tops, or sell when it is overbought, and stop with this strategy immediately when you think it is starting to trend. For instance if the price has broke through and important technical level and is heading in this direction, you will know it might be trending.
  • #4
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:42am Feb 6, 2010 4:42am
About false belief:

when i started trading:
i thought: the price has increased so much, it has to go down now(me adding to this losing trade), but it kept increasing, and i had a very big losing trade.


now: ok, the price has increased, but i now that the price can easily trend. Well it seems that it may trend, i will go out at next retracement/pullback at 1min chart. etc or getting out when the price is moving withi a range back and forth, and thus increasing possibility that it will go up, thus i go out, eventhough there has been no retracement,pullback.

really its all about being flexible. I cant fathom how you could program this and let a computer do it.
  • #5
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:48am Feb 6, 2010 4:48am
3 pips 2 pips 1 pip. what a beautiful world
  • #6
  • Feb 6, 2010 4:53am Feb 6, 2010 4:53am
Quoting fantom
3 pips 2 pips 1 pip. what a beautiful world

well i think it is so fucking hard having an ede on longer time horizons. That is my conclusion after 6 years of trading.

You can either be profitable during longer time horizons only with:

trend following strageies. Or

buy when the price has broke through an important level, for instance pivot,previouis high, consolidation area.

But even then, it is impossible to have 90% winners. Maybe 60%, or even 50% where your tp is bigger than stop loss.
  • #7
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:03am Feb 6, 2010 5:03am
Quoting woo
I have finally knacked the market. Finally found out an edge.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/6647/part1vw.jpg

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1980/part2i.jpg

This is on mbt, real live account.

Here is my iq as well.

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/8544/fuckingiq.jpg


about me: been trading currencies since i was 18, im now 24, so been doing it for 6 years. Im finally getting consistent results. Have an msc in economics.


My system:

Never adding to a winner or to a loser. No fixed tp...


This is a joke ? lol

Man you must have SL and you must have good RRR also.Withaout SL you will loose your balance soon for sure.I know people wich has "great" results but without SL and then after 2,3 months i got 10 emaiils,man i lost my balance....

Ma advice,PUT SL and trade minimum 1:1 RRR with strategy you practiced...


Cheers

This is bad accounts >
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: part111.JPG Size: 171 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4part.JPG Size: 278 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #8
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:04am Feb 6, 2010 5:04am
Dear woo,

Woo Hoo!

Keep up the good woork!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:06am Feb 6, 2010 5:06am
I'm not saying this only to hurt your feelings, I'm trying to give you a realistic perspective.

Are those standard-lots ?? Try and check how much your spreads are costing you! 30 + trades on a few days is just crazy. You seem very excited for your results based on way too low data.

I also saw that a majority of trades came from shorting eur/usd, a currency who have been in a strong downtrend since medio january. Don't fool yourself like I once did a few years ago when euro was in a strong uptrend.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #10
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:19am Feb 6, 2010 5:19am
Quoting woo
I have finally knacked the market. Finally found out an edge.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/6647/part1vw.jpg

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1980/part2i.jpg

This is on mbt, real live account.

Here is my iq as well.

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/8544/fuckingiq.jpg


about me: been trading currencies since i was 18, im now 24, so been doing it for 6 years. Im finally getting consistent results. Have an msc in economics.


My system:

Never adding to a winner or to a loser. No fixed tp...
I couldn't see a single stop loss on your account history. If you are trading without stops you are asking for trouble...
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #11
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:22am Feb 6, 2010 5:22am
Congrats, if you think your is system working well, keep going!!

But however, i am going to play devil's advocate here (which i think is more constructive for a reply), Looking at your trading log, you are obviously a scalper.

I have tried scalping for three months a few years ago, and i really think you need to log up more trades (600+) before even thinking about whether it is successful or not in this style of trading.

The reason i say this is because
a) you are averaging 10+ trade every day and each trade aiming for <15pips. 30 trades is just 3 days worth of work
b) there will be bad runs which will test your MM skills
c) there will be bad day which will test your faith and execution of the system

Finally, you will know you are successful, the day you feel you don't have to prove to anyone that you are successful

Edit: Looks like people here have already expressed what i should have bluntly said.
  • #12
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:30am Feb 6, 2010 5:30am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm not saying this only to hurt your feelings, I'm trying to give you a realistic perspective.

Are those standard-lots ?? Try and check how much your spreads are costing you! 30 + trades on a few days is just crazy. You seem very excited for your results based on way too low data.

I also saw that a majority of trades came from shorting eur/usd, a currency who have been in a strong downtrend since medio january. Don't fool yourself like I once did a few years ago when euro was in a strong uptrend.

Those are mini lots, and yes, the earlier trades in my account can be attributed to the strong down trade, but the other half of trades, are don using a compeletely different stragy, where i even started to buy sometimes, and selling in the short tearm up trend. Im changing strategy depending on the situation.

hope i dont come across as an arrogant fool However, im still not sure, if ive an edge. Ive to trade a little bit more, and i will update you on this. For instance, i still have to work on getting out quicker.


About my stop losses. Whenever i trade, i watch the price. so i do my stop losses manually. If ive to go to work, i quit. I get out and dont trade.
  • #13
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:35am Feb 6, 2010 5:35am
Quoting BobbyBob
Congrats, if you think your is system working well, keep going!!

But however, i am going to play devil's advocate here (which i think is more constructive for a reply), Looking at your trading log, you are obviously a scalper.

I have tried scalping for three months...

I completely agree that 3 days is too little, especially since the market changes from day to day, and ive not yet proven if i can conquer these changes and adapt my trading style to them.

Well, yes, i got a bit happy, wanted to prove something. I think ive go thorugh all market cycles, choppy,trending and other markjet styles, and prove i can profit during these times as well,before i know.

I will update. Thanks for this insigth. You can get a bit blind when you have a winning streak and think you are invisible. I will continue keep my losses very short, getting out quickly and not hold on to a to a trade becaue i cant accept a loser.

However, my philosophy is that, if you hold on to a losing trade, you are about to lose,becaue the market trend generally, and if you hold to the losing trade, you go with the trend....
  • #14
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:38am Feb 6, 2010 5:38am
You sound excately like me when i first started to make some $$$ because of a new "system" - an excitable naive fool (which is human nature and part of the game). Don't let these comments discourage you, their just wake up calls which i wish someone reminded me of during such times of "Excitment"
  • #15
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:41am Feb 6, 2010 5:41am
Quoting woo
About my stop losses. Whenever i trade, i watch the price. so i do my stop losses manually. If ive to go to work, i quit. I get out and dont trade.
One problem with that, your trading is intense and there is nothing wrong with scalping but try to set an emergency stop loss at the very least, even if you come out manually, because there will come a day when your internet fails or something else happens that you have no control over and you will need it.

Scalping doesn't take note of R:R its a different kind of trading but you need a very high hit rate to overcome losses which you obviously have had at the moment, but the other posters saying you need more trades to tell that for sure are correct. If you can keep that hitrate up consistently then you are doing really well.
  • #16
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:41am Feb 6, 2010 5:41am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
This is a joke ? lol

Man you must have SL and you must have good RRR also.Withaout SL you will loose your balance soon for sure.I know people wich has "great" results but without SL and then after 2,3 months i got 10 emaiils,man i lost my balance....

Ma advice,PUT SL and trade minimum 1:1 RRR with strategy you practiced...


Cheers

This is bad accounts >
Sorry but i dont know what 1:1 RRR is.

Do you mean where: TP=SL?i

I know you want to help me. BUt however, i may be ignorant,and i may have to pay for my ignorance in the future, but i wontlearn otherwise, i think im too stubborn. But i think : getting out when it is optimal, is better in a market that changes all the time, that changes faster than your stop loss rules. Which is why you have to adapt your stop loss continually, especially when you are only trading on price action.

THe other account,where you painted with green. Man that was amazing results.
  • #17
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:44am Feb 6, 2010 5:44am
Hi Woo
Woo Hoo lol
Good result but i was wondering why closing postions with small profit if u think ur a profitable trader with this consistency than why dont u target like +40 or +50 Pip's?
Just 7-trades in a whole month in Pair like Gbd/Jpy with a target of +40 Pip's per trade can easily gives u +280 Pips in the end...
  • #18
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:53am Feb 6, 2010 5:53am
Quoting woo
Sorry but i dont know what 1:1 RRR is.

Do you mean where: TP=SL?i

I know you want to help me. BUt however, i may be ignorant,and i may have to pay for my ignorance in the future, but i wontlearn otherwise, i think im too stubborn....
My friend i just gave you advice for future...Account i posted is bad acc and account of that type and cant survive long....I earned this month about 1400 pips and last month about 2000 and every trade with SL,you must have SL,Good MM and RRR (Risk Reward Ratio).That is just advice for future...


Cheers
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #19
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:54am Feb 6, 2010 5:54am
Quoting PipHacker
Hi Woo
Woo Hoo lol
Good result but i was wondering why closing postions with small profit if u think ur a profitable trader with this consistency than why dont u target like +40 or +50 Pip's?
Just 7-trades in a whole month in Pair like Gbd/Jpy with a target of +40 Pip's per trade can easily gives u +280 Pips in the end...

Because, if you hold on to a trade for a longer time, proability that it will go against you, with a bigger loss as a result increases.

So you minimizes risk, by only being in the market for a short period of time. The drawback is that your profits wont be big.

I have only 2000 dollar in my account. so with 6 minilots im heavily leveraged. If i would aim for 40 pip, i would only trade maybe 3 mini lots. Because i dont want 20pip*6dollar=120 dollar loss.


and i think ive an edge, with shorter time horizonts. I dont think i can get 20 winners in a row like i did now,trading longer time horizonts. I think it is impossible to have 90% accuracy aiming for 40pips. Its impossible.
  • #20
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:58am Feb 6, 2010 5:58am
Quoting PipHacker
Hi Woo
Woo Hoo lol
Good result but i was wondering why closing postions with small profit if u think ur a profitable trader with this consistency than why dont u target like +40 or +50 Pip's?
Just 7-trades in a whole month in Pair like Gbd/Jpy with a target of +40 Pip's per trade can easily gives u +280 Pips in the end...
Woo likes scalping its the way he likes to trade. A trade has much more chance of going 4-5 pips into profit than 40.

Its the same as conversations about R:R theoretically they work, in real life situations they don't. I could say I have a 50 pip stop loss and a 100 pip take profit, everyone would say, great R:R that doesn't mean that its going to work, that the market is always going to give me 100 pips. Too many people take too much notice of that and end up with 80 pips on the table and they will let themselves go back into loss because their take profit hasn't been hit. Is that a sensible way of trading?

Yes of course, the optimum situation is that we target more than our stop loss but to stick to it rigidly is what causes the downfall of many traders.
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