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  • #9,861
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:19am Feb 5, 2010 5:19am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

However after this couple of weeks I find myself in uncharted territory how do you deal with big wins?

Any comments?

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
At this stage of Strat's teachings, from first support to resistance or vice versa trades should be your guide, IMO.
  • #9,862
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:28am Feb 5, 2010 6:28am
Quoting strat
With yesterday's bar being 30% greater than the average range, it looks to me like another clear out is in progress before the next move.
I agree with that.
  • #9,863
  • Feb 5, 2010 6:55am Feb 5, 2010 6:55am
Quoting strat
I deleted EURCHF from my list after their last SNB games so they didn't get me this time.

I'm seriously thinking of doing the same with GBPCHF.

USDCHF is OK - far too big for them to really mess with and besides, they would need Alexandra's permission.

Stocks - not as crazy as it sounds. Our Ryan does terrific with penny stocks in the high volatility sectors. Maybe something for our new developments - AGP - are you up for it?
I heard they are also in the cleaning business.

Swiss National Bank - Professional cleaning services.
  • #9,864
  • Feb 5, 2010 8:23am Feb 5, 2010 8:23am
Like I wrote earlier, I love NFP. Generates a lot of market movement to only end up right back where we started.... great when you want to add to your position

Ok, so looks like the NFP numbers were a bit mixed, some positive, some negative and all contradictory!

I don't put much in the employment numbers due to huge revisions, but the good news for the US economy is that the unemployment rate fell from 10% to 9.7%.

This validates the US recovery has turned the corner and is accelerating.

This also reinforces my view that long term fundamentals for USDJPY is pointing up. I anticipate that this will be much more evident once the markets move into risk appetite.
-Razorjack
  • #9,865
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:43am Feb 5, 2010 9:43am
Hello all,

I just wanted to thank Blackeagle and all the others for all the great posts recently. Blackeagles posts always help me with S/R lines so much and help clarify the most important ones. I have been struggling with those on the EUR/US and its keeping me out of trades because I always feel I'm trading into support as I tend to find to many lines. Better safe than sorry I guess, but my glasses seem to be a bit foggy. Also wanted to say nice job Jideck, you must be reading and understanding! keep it up.

Best to all , Poncho.
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #9,866
  • Feb 5, 2010 10:21am Feb 5, 2010 10:21am
Here is the final update. The trade hit my TP and the trade was closed.

My first trade was successful, but as Strat mentioned I got lucky. I moved my SL due to gremlins and FEAR of taking a loss. I will follow my plan next time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad - final update.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #9,867
  • Feb 5, 2010 10:33am Feb 5, 2010 10:33am
So many excellent posts occurred over night. Looks like I am going to spend my Friday night studying charts gain.

Thanks again everyone.
  • #9,868
  • Feb 5, 2010 10:34am Feb 5, 2010 10:34am
Firstly I would like to echo poncho1's thanks to Blackeagle and all the others for all the great posts of charts recently - very helpful indeed.

Also congratulations to Jideck and others who have been successful and 'got fat with trades' (Strat's term) - wish I was one of them.

So it's time to 'fess up' that January was a disaster for me, 16 trades but only two were winners. The previous three months were definitely in the black (or blue), but January!!!!!!!!!!!!! Fortunately I use tight MM, risking no more than 1.% per trade, and usually quite a bit smaller than that.

What have I learnt? Far too many trades for a start. I was trying to catch the moves before they were confirmed to get the largest 'meat' - trying to be clever I suppose - with predictable results.

So it's back to the beginning of the learning process again for me, taking care every evening after the 10.00 pm GMT close, checking everything that needs to be checked according to the rules, and sitting on my hands when in doubt. Of course I knew all this but........ didn't stick to the rules.

LESSON: DON'T GET OVER CONFIDENT AND TRY AND BE CLEVER.

So.. when Jideck asks what he should do now he has had some really positive results? I would say, just make sure you keep them by continuing what you were doing to become successful and don't try anything more just for now! Winnings can disappear very quickly! lol
  • #9,869
  • Feb 5, 2010 11:25am Feb 5, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Razorjack
Like I wrote earlier, I love NFP. Generates a lot of market movement to only end up right back where we started.... great when you want to add to your position

Ok, so looks like the NFP numbers were a bit mixed, some positive, some negative and all contradictory!

I don't put much in the employment numbers due to huge revisions, but the good news for the US economy is that the unemployment rate fell from 10% to 9.7%.

This validates the US recovery has turned the corner and is accelerating.

This also reinforces my view that long term fundamentals...

What are some clues you use(commodities,equity markets, etc) that risk appetite is returning into the market for a extended period(months), instead of just a few days and giving a head fake?

Thanks
  • #9,870
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:48pm Feb 5, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting jcd5816
What are some clues you use(commodities,equity markets, etc) that risk appetite is returning into the market for a extended period(months), instead of just a few days and giving a head fake?

Thanks
It's too complicated with fundamentals to explain on this thread.

But what I can say is that in the LONG TERM the markets are already in risk appetite. However we're seeing MEDIUM TERM risk aversion.

The reasons, IMO, for this MEDIUM TERM risk aversion are sovereign debt problems in Europe and China's monetary tightening. Once these 2 problems seem resolved and prices get to a low enough level, then risk appetite will return.

Could be a few weeks to a few months.

Hard to give a more detailed answer than this without cluttering up this technical thread with fundamentals.
-Razorjack
  • #9,871
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:54pm Feb 5, 2010 12:54pm
At work so I can't post a chart.

It is breaking through 1.57 like it's nothing... obviously willl wait for the close.

IF it does close below, we have long way to go to next R.
  • #9,872
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:21pm Feb 5, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting pipfx
At work so I can't post a chart.

It is breaking through 1.57 like it's nothing... obviously willl wait for the close.

IF it does close below, we have long way to go to next R.
won't it be more stress free waiting for the re-test of this 1.57 support like resistance?
  • #9,873
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:28pm Feb 5, 2010 1:28pm
Definitely. I would wait to see PA and a potential retest.

Just making an observation more than anything.
  • #9,874
  • Edited 6:52pm Feb 5, 2010 6:49pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting strat
USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and your S/R level - await your appropriate PA and make some dough before the arbitragers figure it out.

And just to show she knows what she is talking about, here is the picture:

BUT will it ignore this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,875
  • Feb 5, 2010 7:22pm Feb 5, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I find this new situation puzzling, as I said previously I move from one trade to next and do not dwell on it so as to attempt everything from scratch and not to be boggled by the "voices " in my head.
However after this couple of weeks I find myself in uncharted territory how do you deal with big wins?

Any comments?

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
You deal with it as you would any business - you have made some profits so lock some away for a rainy day and invest some back into your business.

Above all - DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING and whatever you do, do NOT try to walk on water.

As a trader, you are at your WEAKEST when you have just come off a winning streak. This is the time to tighten up more than ever. Do NOT be tempted to take on more RISK than your MM and personality allows.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,876
  • Feb 5, 2010 10:08pm Feb 5, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Firstly I would like to echo poncho1's thanks to Blackeagle and all the others for all the great posts of charts recently - very helpful indeed.

Also congratulations to Jideck and others who have been successful and 'got fat with trades' (Strat's term) - wish I was one of them.

So it's time to 'fess up' that January was a disaster for me, 16 trades but only two were winners....
So it's time to 'fess up' that January was a disaster for me, 16 trades but only two were winners. The previous three months were definitely in the black (or blue), but January!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh dear, Christopher. This is more what I would expect from one of our rampant studs!

All is not lost – you know the error of your ways, you are still positive and the method still works.

The thing is, most of us will, at some point in time, do exactly this so just consider it a “bump” on your Path.

However, the problem is deeper than the lesson you have identified.

The real problem is that you gave up CONTROL to the 95% that does the financial damage. In fact, you are a perfect shining example of this.

From your posts, it would appear that your technical understanding of PASR is sound so no matter what you do technically, you will not improve UNTIL you address “The Little People”.

Working “The Little People” is unique to each individual and there is no “one fits all” prescribed treatment.

What is unusual in your case is that you know trading is not a “get rich quick” scheme and as such, treated it seriously.

We have to find out the root cause of your problem – the reason for your “surge” to want more and quicker. Until we can do that and address it, your “Little People” will continue to have their way with you.

“The Little People” aside, let’s put some DISCIPLINE back into your trading life.

Forget wanting more meat – your top priority is only taking OPPORTUNITIES in BASIC PASR. NOTHING MORE.

When an opportunity presents itself, the “meat” will be what it is – no more, no less – there is NOTHING you can do in a low risk stress free way to make the meat more.

If you don’t SEE the opportunity, it is NOT there and therefore NOT a trade for you.

Do NOT be distracted what others do, or don’t do on this thread or the trading club you are in. They are not responsible or accountable for your trading and your account.

Do not worry about missing trades or not seeing trades that others see – when you are ready, you, too, will see them.

Do NOT do the “IF ONLY” scenario EVER – ALWAYS and ONLY focus on the NOW and what is in front of you.

I’m sorry this is all DON’TS but it is what you need right now.

If you need help with “The Little People” you know what to do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,877
  • Feb 5, 2010 11:54pm Feb 5, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting 30XTCi
An observation of a lie. Or is it True?

Roy
An observation of a lie. Or is it True?

What Roy is alluding to (I think) is what I call the technical chartists nightmare while others around me call it the technical chartists DREAM!

Let’s look at the FACTS:

We have PRICE bouncing UP off LONG TERM (1990) support as identified in earlier posts by Alexandra and myself.

PRICE has made a PERFECT ab = cd wave. However, PRICE does NOT always make perfect ab=cd waves – many times cd is greater than ab!

PRICE has made a HAMMER on the Worker (may be a Bond Hammer on some platforms).

Let’s look at the ““magic, illusion and smoke and mirrors””:

“IF” March 3, 2009 to March 23, 2009 is EW 1

“IF” March 23, 2009 to April 20, 2009 is EW 2

“IF” April 20, 2009 to Nov 25, 2009 is EW 3

“IF” Nov 25, 2009 to Feb 5, 2010 is an ABC correction, then it “could” be EW 4

“IF” all the above is TRUE, then EW 5 should follow in accordance with EW theory.

Let’s look at what we don’t have:

We don’t have confirmation from the Italian Ice Cream man in any way, shape or form. However, there will be those that say it has not exceeded such and such a level so…………………

The problem with the Italian Ice Cream man is that you can draw him from where you want to TELL THE STORY you want!

He MUST be drawn on an Impulse Wave and if we draw him on either EW 3 or EW 0 to 3, there is still no confirmation.

Is Jan 13, 2010 to Feb 5, 2010 “C” leg (c-d), and therefore EW 4, complete?

How do we know the big boys have finished selling and are happy with PRICE at 1.3660?

How do we know the big boys won’t drive PRICE down to next support at 1.2930?

“WE” don’t know and neither does anyone else – except the big boys.

There will be those EW technicians and technical chartists who will BUY on Monday’s bar – and I have been among them in my losing life.

I found out, at my cost, that trading “IF”s was very, very expensive and damaging.

What is my safest, lowest risk, stress free way to trade this?

Having been caught out many times trading magic, illusions, smoke and mirrors, I prefer to teach students to WAIT for PRICE to confirm its move.

“IF” the next move is indeed EW 5, and “IF” EW theory holds true, PRICE should exceed or at a minimum reach 1.5144 which is 1481 pips from Friday’s close.

The safest part of that is the “meat in the middle” – let’s just use 75% - that is 1110 pips. That is what we are after. The remaining 371 pips are HIGH RISK.

If we divide this between the top and bottom we have 185 pips at each end.

We can AFFORD to let PRICE prove itself by 185 pips BEFORE we initiate our trades.

We can further reduce RISK and STRESS by using and trading our HHs and HLs. In other words, let it make its first higher swing “IF” indeed it is EW 5 and then wait for the HL to come in.

“IF” Friday’s bar is the end of EW 4 and PRICE moves up – who cares? PRICE will NOT leave the station without us.

There is NO RUSH to trade EW waves or anything else for that matter.

Then, after your dream or nightmare, decide who YOU really are.

An amateur only thinks about profit (correct Christopher?)

A Professional only thinks about RISK and LOSING.

And, for those who have no intention of taking this advice and entering a buy stop above Friday’s bar, do it with a reduced position – there is plenty of time to fill yer wellies!

Finally, the big boys know what we know AND MORE!

They know what we see. They know what we will be thinking. They know where we will have our orders and SLs.

They know what impact their fun and games will have!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd if.gif Size: 33 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,878
  • Feb 6, 2010 1:38am Feb 6, 2010 1:38am
Quoting pipfx
Here is the final update. The trade hit my TP and the trade was closed.

My first trade was successful, but as Strat mentioned I got lucky. I moved my SL due to gremlins and FEAR of taking a loss. I will follow my plan next time.
Here is the final update. The trade hit my TP and the trade was closed.

My first trade was successful, but as Strat mentioned I got lucky. I moved my SL due to gremlins and FEAR of taking a loss. I will follow my plan next time.

Congratulations on making a profit on your first live trade. While the priority is always to make a profit it must be done with a method which is repeatable and therefore consistent. Unless you change your trade management and control your “Little People”, I fear your next may well be a loser.

Aside from the incorrect positioning of your SL, what is your reason for TP?

We traded off the BEEB at 1.7226R with a target of support at 1.6520.

Our SL is now moved to above the quadruple swing top at 1.6956 locking in profit on a portion of our positions. We are now in a FREE trade and CANNOT lose.

If you cannot recognize support at 1.6520 you should at least see the hammer on Dec 29, 2009 giving you a target to shoot for.

This has been a pretty smooth ride down and my anticipated “wobble” did not occur indicating strength in the sellers.

You MUST eliminate all FEAR of losing – you MUST identify a losing scenario in your PLAN.

You MUST accept that you have a 50% probability of losing.

Trading is only probability – if you can’t accept the losing probability, you will NEVER be a successful and profitable trader.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,879
  • Feb 6, 2010 5:19am Feb 6, 2010 5:19am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Does anyone here trade Silver? (I only very rarely do)

Just wanted to share this beautiful hammer on the worker.

I see confluence with 1470 BOSS Support + BOSS TL + BIGBOSS bounce off MA.
BUT we also have a double top (spring/summer 08 and winter/spring 10), with its base at ~1600...


My conclusions:

A) we might see an initial retrace up to 1600 area and then a continuation of the downtrend...

B) OR IF we see a significant break of 1620 resistance this would indicate a continuation of the longer term up-trend.

My gut tells me scenario A is more likely at this stage (especially due to change of economic sentiment)



My gut knows nothing, PRICE knows all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver Worker.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver BOSS.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver BIGBOSS.png Size: 29 KB
  • #9,880
  • Edited 8:57am Feb 6, 2010 8:22am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting strat
An observation of a lie. Or is it True?

What Roy is alluding to (I think) is what I call the technical chartists nightmare while others around me call it the technical chartists DREAM!

Let’s look at the FACTS:

We have PRICE bouncing UP off LONG TERM (1990) support as identified in earlier posts by Alexandra and myself.

PRICE[font=Arial] has made a PERFECT ab = cd wave. However, PRICE...
Nicely stated. Make sure you read that post several times.

The 95 percent will read it and cast it off. That's why they are the 95 percent.
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