james16 Chart Thread

Before going to bed last night, I had to decide whether to close my fiber short trade or not, since it had arrived at the daily/weekly ppz of around 1.3740. Ordinarily, I would have closed (part of) the trade at the ppz @ around 1.3740, but given the bearish momentum yesterday on everything ***USD and ***JPY, I decided to move my stop loss on both positions to 1.3857, which at that time was just above the 38 fib retracement of the swing down from 1.40 (unfortunately, my attachment space is full at the moment due to the newbie restrictions of FF, so I cannot add a chart without deleting others).

Well, the retracement did not (yet) take place, and fiber is still going down. Don't know what NFP will bring this afternoon and where price will close by the end of the day, but in my view, the next target for fiber could well be the daily/weekly ppz @ around 1.3470, which coincides with the 61 fib retracement on the weekly chart.

My trade, in which my initial risk was 1%, and to which I later added another position, risking again 1% (but which would not let the trade as a whole turn negative if it would have been stopped out) is now up approximately 30%. Even though I had anticipated a move down from 1.40 since last week already, I definitely did not expect it to drop through so much high timeframe support and confluence. Maybe in a few years we can all trade Deutsche Mark again.

Hey Triger, are these touch trades?

Looks like they let all us weak longs get shaken out first though!

hey joel

You are very right on your statements,probaly I didn't expres myself properly,I was referring to small players like us,retail traders, which is just a part of the story...............

and about the news,I'm not completely ignoring them, I'm aware only about the interest rate and some important news,but that are just for giving me some clues about the direction anything else is right on the charts


PS:those of you who catch the move on SNB intervention just want to say....,I'm too lazy this day, I wake up at 10:30AM my local time(GMT+2) and missed all the action,anyway I didn't planned to play it whatsoever,just to monitorized to see how she behave

wish you the best!!

thanks for pointing this out jl.

there are half a dozen people or more in the group that can run circles around any trading guru on the net.

Makes me feel kinda tough actually. (think don knotts)

I like that feeling - Always have.

God Bless them all.

Together we all kick ass.

Alright i will calm down.

be safe my friend.

Although I do have a plan and I intended to stick to it,I would like to hear your "version" and how you interpreted this kind of movement, but thats after the nfp as you wish

wish you all the best!!!

yes majority of them are, only one or 2 are based on PA

wish you the best!!

you deserve it

hope you will have an enjoyable trip there!!

wish you the best!!

PS:hope you will come with some photos from there

Good to have you around as well buddy

remember this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=53933

just checked my platform an see that my order was triggered

lets see what can we get from it

ps: just ignore the sell limit line

trig is on a great roll.

you new folks be sure and remember post 1.

treat this like a business and demo until you know what your doing.

remember you can still use pa to signal your breakout and touch entry on a pullback.

like this chart.

thanks sir!

haven't I told you that you have changed my life,and your requirement from post nr 1 is tremendous helpful, I have graduate it with succes and the curious think is that I never stop learning, I'm keeping doing it to re-view your videos and charts,the simplicity of your charts is killing me ,they always remind me something new

I'm only studying them on a demo account, is a diferent approach more agressively,and they give you the opportunity to be more ahead from the first critical point,and you have more space to manage them.

you are so blessed man, and you have a special gift to manage this thread like no others

you are in my Nr 1 list thats for sure!!

GOD BLESS YOU

I love how after 3 pages of talk of the CHF madness Jim comes in and calms us all down with a safe obvious and easy trade (the NZD was also backed by 2 monthly bearish pinbars). Either a play of that outside bar or a touch pullback to 7000 with a 20 pip stop would have been a great trade (Full disclosure: I didn't take either because I don't do touches or continuation bars yet)

As I said before, volatility gets me excited. It gets us all excited. Big moves are what we love. Well, not quite. We love big moves signalled by PA. Find me some PA on that EURCHF chart because I can't see any. All I can see is a bunch of traders getting creamed because they thought that somewhere, somehow the SNB was due to intervene. And when price moved lower, well you needed a bulldozer to sweep away all those dead stops.

We trade here with relative certainty. Good PA, PPZs, A+++ setups, there really is relatively little doubt how it's going to pan out. Where we get killed (myself very much included) is in taking mediocre setups on hope. Or playing the tables with the EURCHF because, well, maybe, just maybe....

The last play I see on that chart was around 1.5. Bounces off that level and breakouts through it were good plays IMO. And that's because it was solid support. Anything after that was dancing with gorillas.

If you really think you can play SNB intervention ask yourself if you've studied all the past SNB interventions on that chart. What day? What session? How many pips? All in one go, or a little first followed by a bit later? How much did they retrace, and how soon? Remember, that every single retail trader in the known universe is looking at that chart and thinking 'intervenshunz coming!'. It isn't some dark secret that you've stumbled on in the bowels of the Vatican archives. Everyone is looking, waiting, getting ready to jump in. At the tiniest twitch in price upwards, the world and his dog would be buying that pair. If I was a mischievous hedge fund trader in a low liquidity session looking to grab some cash, I would make the chart look exactly like it did. Maybe the SNB jumped on the back of that too, maybe it was Blofeld in his cave, maybe it was a cycle of the moon.

The retrace from the move came far sharper than in previous 'interventions' and during low liquidity session too. In the past it's taken several days to retrace as much as it's done now. Does that mean it was the SNB? a mischievous hedge fund starting the gold rush that every man woman and dog watching that chart was looking for? some combination of that? none of the above? I don't know. Seems to me that intervention from a national bank the day before NFP is a little bit weird and not the best bang for your buck. The retrace was super fast too, which doesn't usually happen when the SNB flex their muscles. But then, I'm not Rac, that guy is a master and this is perfectly his style, he understands the big picture better than I do, and I bet he made a killing.

The one thing I know for sure is that I simply don't know. I have an infinitessimally small amount of the information available to those in the know and I simply see no pinbars, I see no outside bars... and even if I did I wouldn't particularly go for them on that mad chart. There are far far safer trades out there for me

Phew that turned into something of a rant. Thanks for indulging me fellas. This is pretty much the only place on the web where I feel I can vent this way and not get into some mad WWE style flame war.

Took that one on the break

Here's the EUR/CHF PA I played - and lost.

Granted not the _best_ shaped pin and was biased by intervention rumours but not a bad play.

This is a 2-day chart.


Edit: I cant put up my 2 day chart! Basically there was a 2-day pin the formed during the consolidation (21st/22nd Jan), which was triggered and stopped out on 29th Jan

Edit: Attached is a 1-day chart instead

USD/JPY is looking ripe for a breakout, both on the 1H (2IB) and the 4H (consolidation)

Tiaforex i love your posts!

Thank you!!

Great post Aaron.

I admire how you can put your thoughts into words. Good stuff.

'intervenshunz coming!' lol

Thanks for the visual Joel. lol