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  • #9,841
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:18am Feb 5, 2010 1:18am
Quoting strat

Anyway, watch this closely - very closely - it should be very interesting.
Agree, and that DSRI line is coming from 1992, for the ones who don't have that much historical data.
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  • #9,842
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:29am Feb 5, 2010 1:29am
Quoting strat
What if 1.5700 gives way?

I'll just have to buy more wellies!
No wellies will be available due to the followers of your thread. LOL.

Thanks again for your time and dedication to the thread, my friend.
  • #9,843
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:42am Feb 5, 2010 1:42am
USDJPY Post #9529

89 is hanging in there by the skin of it's teeth

More skin or pulling teeth?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,844
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:54am Feb 5, 2010 1:54am
Back down to Earth.

So while you are all fat and happy with your trades, remember the times when you were bitching and moaning about the lack of trades and profits.

This is the real world of trading. We trade the opportunity. We stand aside when there is no opportunity.

Patience and Discipline will ALWAYS win out over greed and recklessness.

We LEARN to WAIT until PRICE reaches our PRICE LEVELS.

We LEARN what to do and when to do it with HOW PRICE reacts to our PRICE LEVELS.

We do NOT go looking for trades. We let the trades (opportunity) come to us.

Put this experience in your memory bank and remember it when you next bitch and moan about the lack of trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,845
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:05am Feb 5, 2010 2:05am
check
Annoying Precision
  • #9,846
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:10am Feb 5, 2010 2:10am
I love NFP!

NFP can be very profitable, provided that you have a good grasp of the "big picture"

If you look at what's been happening in the last few weeks, it's clear that the markets are in risk aversion.

I'm anticipating the BIG BOSS(es) to continue on their corrections.

My strategy has been to short the commodities currencies (AUD, USD, CAD) since Nov/Dec against USD and JPY.

And for trading through NFP today, I am anticipating 3 different scenarios.

1. NFP pushes the markets in my favor:

Great! I continue with my trading plan.


2. NFP pushes the markets against my position:

Even better! I look for areas to ADD to my position and continue with my trading plan


3. NFP doesn't make much of an impact:

Great! I continue with my trading plan.


NFP will cause market volatility over a day, but it's a small potato compared to the larger economic forces that move the markets on a daily basis. Work with the larger economic forces (don't fight with them, unless you like stepping in front of freight trains) and it will keep you on the right side of the track!
-Razorjack
  • #9,847
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:24am Feb 5, 2010 2:24am
Quoting Blackeagle
Strange. One of the rare JPY pairs resisting to break a major SR. Will it stand?
As Yul Bryner said in The King and I, "its a puzzlement".

139 is obviously (as I write this) strong enough to hold PRICES.

We don't care - where'er she goes we will follow!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,848
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:30am Feb 5, 2010 2:30am
Quoting strat
I was going to title this "Sheep Shaggers Anonymous" but thought that was pushing it - even for me.

Then I remembered the Canadian Brit, Mike Myers, did a James Bond spoof movie with a similar title so I guess it's OK.

Anyway, watch this closely - very closely - it should be very interesting.

If the technicals follow history, we have a "good idea" of where PRICE should go.

As for the funny mentals,

AUD Interest Rate is 3.75% UP from 3.5%

NZD Interest Rate is 2.5% DOWN from 3.0%

So, using the full extent of my funny...
Strat doing funny mentals?? Never thought I'd see the day! A story for the grand kids!

Haha.... just kidding.

Well done Strat! It's a good effort, unfortunately I don't think that it's quite this simple.

I usually don't trade this pair as I think the fundamentals are much more clear cut in the USD pairs and JPY crosses. But I can still provide some input.

I agree with Nicola, but would just like to add that the movements (in this business cycle) will depend quite a bit on NZD and AUD exposure to developments in China.

IMO, Australia has a larger exposure to China than NZ. So in times of risk aversion (i.e. China's monetary tightening) AUD will fall faster than NZD and in times of risk appetite Australia will attract more money from the higher interest rates and thus AUD will appreciate faster than NZD.

Hope this made sense.
-Razorjack
  • #9,849
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:33am Feb 5, 2010 2:33am
So do you think we are going to see a continuation of yesterday?
  • #9,850
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:39am Feb 5, 2010 2:39am
Quoting strat
As Yul Bryner said in The King and I, "its a puzzlement".

139 is obviously (as I write this) strong enough to hold PRICES.

We don't care - where'er she goes we will follow!
Agree, if we use mostly lows to draw SR and it is the last resort, IMO, before next stop at 130.
  • #9,851
  • Edited 3:00am Feb 5, 2010 2:46am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting dre3029
So do you think we are going to see a continuation of yesterday?
IMO, yes, I'm anticipating a continuation over the MEDIUM TERM with minor corrections in the SHORT TERM.
-Razorjack
  • #9,852
  • Feb 5, 2010 3:21am Feb 5, 2010 3:21am
An observation of a lie. Or is it True?

Roy
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Polishing my crystal ball
  • #9,853
  • Edited 3:30am Feb 5, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:30am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting strat
AUDUSD...
that must have been a very revealing conversation you had there strat! i only wish he hadn't told you not to tell anyone about it. it might have been very interesting for us students.

i tried to ask his kiwi-brother for some hints, but he just stuck his head into the sand and shrugged his shoulders.
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  • #9,854
  • Edited 3:39am Feb 5, 2010 3:37am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting Blackeagle
It took 12 days to go from one SR to another after BEOB with more than 500 pips. Anyone got it?
Hi Blackeaglehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I was in this and got three quarters of the move, got SL when I moved it on the 2nd. Got back into it after 3rd BEOB, still in with two lots on BE now.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,855
  • Feb 5, 2010 3:50am Feb 5, 2010 3:50am
Quoting strat
Back down to Earth.

So while you are all fat and happy with your trades, remember the times when you were bitching and moaning about the lack of trades and profits.

This is the real world of trading. We trade the opportunity. We stand aside when there is no opportunity.

Patience and Discipline will ALWAYS win out over greed and recklessness.

We LEARN to WAIT until PRICE reaches our PRICE LEVELS.

[font=Arial]We LEARN what...
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I find this new situation puzzling, as I said previously I move from one trade to next and do not dwell on it so as to attempt everything from scratch and not to be boggled by the "voices " in my head.
However after this couple of weeks I find myself in uncharted territory how do you deal with big wins?

Any comments?

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,856
  • Feb 5, 2010 4:12am Feb 5, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I find this new situation puzzling, as I said previously I move from one trade to next and do not dwell on it so as to attempt everything from scratch and not to be boggled by the "voices " in my head.
However after this couple of weeks I find myself in uncharted territory how do you deal with big wins?

Any comments?

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
However after this couple of weeks I find myself in uncharted territory how do you deal with big wins?

The same way you deal with any other trade:

YOU FOLLOW YOUR PLAN

And as Strat would say: "You do have a plan, don't you?"
-Razorjack
  • #9,857
  • Feb 5, 2010 4:26am Feb 5, 2010 4:26am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Jideck
Hi Blackeaglehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I was in this and got three quarters of the move, got SL when I moved it on the 2nd. Got back into it after 3rd BEOB, still in with two lots on BE now.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
nice one jideck! well done!
  • #9,858
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:02am Feb 5, 2010 5:02am
Quoting 30XTCi
An observation of a lie. Or is it True?

Roy
We will have a better idea when daily and hence weekly bar closes.
  • #9,859
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:11am Feb 5, 2010 5:11am
Quoting Sid
i tried to ask his kiwi-brother for some hints, but he just stuck his head into the sand and shrugged his shoulders.
If you treat him well, he tells good stories. A close above 0.6900 may save the day.
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  • #9,860
  • Feb 5, 2010 5:16am Feb 5, 2010 5:16am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Blackeaglehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I was in this and got three quarters of the move, got SL when I moved it on the 2nd. Got back into it after 3rd BEOB, still in with two lots on BE now.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
Perfect example of Strat's "from one SR to another" trade in trend direction. Well done.
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