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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,821
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:43pm Feb 4, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting strat
I was going to title this "Sheep Shaggers Anonymous" but thought that was pushing it - even for me.

Then I remembered the Canadian Brit, Mike Myers, did a James Bond spoof movie with a similar title so I guess it's OK.

Anyway, watch this closely - very closely - it should be very interesting.

If the technicals follow history, we have a "good idea" of where PRICE should go.

As for the funny mentals,

AUD Interest Rate is 3.75% UP from 3.5%

NZD Interest Rate is 2.5% DOWN from 3.0%

So, using the full extent of my funny mentals...
My daily chart has me cautious that we COULD be in for another push down to 1.2430 or the TL whatever comes first??? Interesting it will be for sure!
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  • #9,822
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:44pm Feb 4, 2010 10:44pm
Nice Chart!
Annoying Precision
  • #9,823
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:58pm Feb 4, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting strat
I deleted EURCHF from my list after their last SNB games so they didn't get me this time.

I'm seriously thinking of doing the same with GBPCHF.

USDCHF is OK - far too big for them to really mess with and besides, they would need Alexandra's permission.

Stocks - not as crazy as it sounds. Our Ryan does terrific with penny stocks in the high volatility sectors. Maybe something for our new developments - AGP - are you up for it?
Stocks - not as crazy as it sounds. Our Ryan does terrific with penny stocks in the high volatility sectors. Maybe something for our new developments - AGP - are you up for it?

I like this idea. I have been using a stock screener for the past few months and just watching some real nice set-ups play themselves out in the equities lately. I have been excluding anything with less than a million shares of volume and that seems to weed out a lot of the more volatile ones.
  • #9,824
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:05am Feb 5, 2010 12:05am
I am breaking my own rules and replying on the thread to a lurker/freeloader/Troll/Wannabe Trader – whatever.

I am doing it because I think (reading between the lines), it is a cry for help and maybe he/she will continue on the thread (and therefore am not disclosing any identity).

The chart I was emailed was pretty crappy so I have duplicated it on a larger scale.

The text was:

“Help me! I been making money when all indicators agree til yesterday when I lost money. All indicators said up but it go down and I lose and not understand – why?”

You lost because you are trading INDICATORS.

Indicators are derivatives of PRICE and LAG the movement of PRICE by a function of their algorithm or mathematical formula.

Anything derived from a formula will ALWAYS be 2nd, 3rd or maybe 4th generation and will lag PRICE and PRICE ACTION by the same amount.

Also, you have co-linearity of indicators with your 2nd and 3rd indicators. In simple terms they are both telling you the same thing but with different graphical representation. In other words, they are both momentum indicators using the same information in their formulae. They will either be both right, or in this case, both WRONG.

Your first indicator is an oscillator which moves from 0 to 100. Unfortunately, PRICE is NOT as orderly and does not move from 0 to 100. Neither does it do it in such a cyclic fashion. Presumably you are trading the cross of the signal line over the main line which then adds further lag.

The signal cross of the main line does NOT appear until the last bar has completed so at best, you will ALWAYS be one bar behind PRICE. Add this one day lag to that of the formula and you could be 2 or 3 days behind PRICE.

In addition, indicators have NO KNOWLEDGE of market structure or sentiment. They are only calculating functions of PRICE.

Compare this to the REAL world of Professional Traders who know and understand market structure and sentiment without indicators.

The Market Makers in their individual institutions are BUYING and SELLING at specific PRICES.

They are NOT buying and selling using indicators.

They know to BUY when PRICE reaches a certain level and then SELL when PRICE reaches another different level.

Many times PRICE will do the opposite to what your indicators tell you, as in your recent experience. This is because PRICE had reached a certain PRICE level that the market and its structure could not support. At this point, the market sold and your indicators, being derivatives and therefore reactive, could not respond accordingly.

In this case, what usually happens is that by the time your indicators turn themselves around, PRICE has reached another level and goes in the opposite direction again (your original indicator direction!) and you now have a DOUBLE LOSS!

This thread teaches students to trade using the same tools the Professional Traders use – PASR.

This thread is a professional teaching thread and is called The Path of Learning. The Path starts on Post # 1 of Page 1 and never ends.

Read and UNDERSTAND each and every post until you get back here.



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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,825
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:15am Feb 5, 2010 12:15am
Not to patronize you or anything. But you TRULY must CARE if after all this time you still respond in detail to a most basic question. Many pips to you.

Quoting strat
I am breaking my own rules and replying on the thread to a lurker/freeloader/Troll/Wannabe Trader – whatever.

I am doing it because I think (reading between the lines), it is a cry for help and maybe he/she will continue on the thread (and therefore am not disclosing any identity).

The chart I was emailed was pretty crappy so I have duplicated it on a larger scale.

The text was:

[font=Arial]“Help me! I been making money when all indicators agree til yesterday...
Annoying Precision
  • #9,826
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:27am Feb 5, 2010 12:27am
Quoting Alexandra
In an effort to look ahead and for those looking for a news-inspired bounce, please note that we are up against a 2004 support in EURUSD; the stablity against GBP is reassuring as well. Timing for this is as per ones's stress-free tolerance. I would also encourage a look at the weekly USDJPY chart against the Eur-inspired fray in E/J.

USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and...
In an effort to look ahead and for those looking for a news-inspired bounce, please note that we are up against a 2004 support in EURUSD

Even more important my dear - it goes back to 1990!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,827
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:36am Feb 5, 2010 12:36am
Quoting elitejets
Looks like the SNB just intervened to push up EURCHF. Not a very liquid pair at this time of night it looks like they bought USDCHF and GBPCHF as well, probably to leg in to EUR which means EURUSD and EURGBP go up too.
Their goal is to devalue the CHF vs the Euro but it makes them all move.

Perhaps we should trade stocks, then we wouldnt have to deal with the steamroller effect of central banks.
Yep:


[Dow Jones] CHF briefly drops to multi-month lows vs USD, EUR: USD/CHF at 1.0739 after touching 1.0795, and may trade in 1.0700-1.0800 range for now; EUR/CHF at 1.4723 after hitting 1.4809 and may keep to 1.4700-1.4850 band, traders say. Several traders in Tokyo say SNB has been in market, and main move did come in EUR/CHF, which seems to have been SNB's main intervention vehicle in recent times. One senior dealer at European bank in Tokyo says he saw SNB bidding for EUR/CHF for 1.49 on EBS platform, when it was at 1.46, though isn't sure in what size; "I've been a dealer for two decades, but this is my first time to see the SNB doing intervention in Asian time." Another European bank dealer also says bids went across at 1.49, when pair was at 1.46. Dealer in Singapore adds EUR/CHF is "all over the shop (with) rumours of official buying interest. It jumped two big figures in a nanno second and now (there's) contention between banks about the highs." Others remain skeptical; another senior dealer at major European bank says CHF drop was probably just due to speculators selling, while some talk of hedge fund offloading.
  • #9,828
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:36am Feb 5, 2010 12:36am
It took 12 days to go from one SR to another after BEOB with more than 500 pips. Anyone got it?
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  • #9,829
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:41am Feb 5, 2010 12:41am
Quoting strat
AUDUSD

While I respect my learned funny mentalist friends, I am first and foremost a technical trader.

With the funny mental opinions of where AUDUSD should go, I thought it best to have a conversation with the AUDUSD BIG BOSS.
You really are one weird cat ...
  • #9,830
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:42am Feb 5, 2010 12:42am
Quoting Alexandra
In an effort to look ahead and for those looking for a news-inspired bounce, please note that we are up against a 2004 support in EURUSD; the stablity against GBP is reassuring as well. Timing for this is as per ones's stress-free tolerance. I would also encourage a look at the weekly USDJPY chart against the Eur-inspired fray in E/J.

USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and...
the stablity against GBP is reassuring as well.

Such a clever girl!

See Blackeagle Post #9809 for what Alexandra is referring to
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,831
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:47am Feb 5, 2010 12:47am
DSRI, SR, Boss 20. The level where the price stopped yesterday is a beauty. Are buyers strong enough to fight with these three musketeers (and add the fourth one as trend), we'll see.
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  • #9,832
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:53am Feb 5, 2010 12:53am
Quoting strat
I'm seriously thinking of doing the same with GBPCHF.
Maybe this chart makes you change your mind. Even with today's intervention, price touched the upper sloping SR @1.7025 and reversed. Watching carefully for breakout either side. Can you believe it was 2.7320 in year 2000 and 2.4965 in 2007?
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  • #9,833
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:56am Feb 5, 2010 12:56am
Strange. One of the rare JPY pairs resisting to break a major SR. Will it stand?
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  • #9,834
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:56am Feb 5, 2010 12:56am
Quoting Alexandra
In an effort to look ahead and for those looking for a news-inspired bounce, please note that we are up against a 2004 support in EURUSD; the stablity against GBP is reassuring as well. Timing for this is as per ones's stress-free tolerance. I would also encourage a look at the weekly USDJPY chart against the Eur-inspired fray in E/J.

USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and...
USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and your S/R level - await your appropriate PA and make some dough before the arbitragers figure it out.

And just to show she knows what she is talking about, here is the picture:
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,835
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:58am Feb 5, 2010 12:58am
What if 1.5700 gives way? God save the Queen !!!
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  • #9,836
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:06am Feb 5, 2010 1:06am
Quoting strat
See Blackeagle Post [/font][/color]#9809 for what Alexandra is referring to
I have deleted post #9809 (GBPUSD chart) and replaced it with post #9835.
  • #9,837
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:08am Feb 5, 2010 1:08am
Quoting Blackeagle
DSRI, SR, Boss 20. The level where the price stopped yesterday is a beauty. Are buyers strong enough to fight with these three musketeers (and add the fourth one as trend), we'll see.
With yesterday's bar being 30% greater than the average range, it looks to me like another clear out is in progress before the next move.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,838
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:10am Feb 5, 2010 1:10am
Will it manage to stay above 1.0700 this time?
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  • #9,839
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:12am Feb 5, 2010 1:12am
Quoting Blackeagle
What if 1.5700 gives way? God save the Queen !!!
What if 1.5700 gives way?

I'll just have to buy more wellies!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,840
  • Feb 5, 2010 1:12am Feb 5, 2010 1:12am
Another JPY pair fighting for life.
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