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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #54,081
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:53pm Feb 4, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting Jlr
A lot of good traders running journals there with their live trades. They provide a lot of analysis and its very helpful. J16 isn't really a signal service though, more of a "teach a man to fish" service. Signal services are good and all, but you can't rely on them for the rest of your life.

exactly this is what i want....people telling why they took the trade and explanation so I start to think like a trader. get the traders mentality. I dont want a signal service but a way to catch fish

thanks for ur reply
  • #54,082
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:57pm Feb 4, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
yeah, if you want to blow an account or just ride a roller coaster you can follow my journal.
Sorry to hear. I'm guessing by your trade of an "ok" 5 min bar on that e/chf, you're an over trader. Could be totally wrong, but I'm guessing that may be your problem. Work on that, and I think your account will be a lot happier. Suffered from the same problems, now I just try harder to occupy myself and stare at the charts a little less. Still play around a little to much, but am improving. Maybe only 6 trades or so in the last 3 weeks That is a big improvement for me.
  • #54,083
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:07pm Feb 4, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting Jlr
Sorry to hear. I'm guessing by your trade of an "ok" 5 min bar on that e/chf, you're an over trader. Could be totally wrong, but I'm guessing that may be your problem. Work on that, and I think your account will be a lot happier. Suffered from the same problems, now I just try harder to occupy myself and stare at the charts a little less. Still play around a little to much, but am improving. Maybe only 6 trades or so in the last 3 weeks That is a big improvement for me.
Hehehehe, the EUR/CHF was strictly trying to take advantage of SNB Intervention. I though it was worth the risk, just wasn't prepared for it to show up during Asia session.

We all have our battles to fight and I'm glad to hear you are improving. Trade Well.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,084
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:17pm Feb 4, 2010 9:17pm
I was a little bored tonight so I logs into the forum to poke around and Jarroo posts a chart of the USDCHF - a pair I got in long yesterday morning.

Speculation is that the SNB intervened. I have no better explanation -

Wondering why at this hour they'd do something like that. Do the gnomes over there work the graveyard shift?

Joel - any thoughts? Just curious. I hope they do it again real_soon_now...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #54,085
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:31pm Feb 4, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting StoragePro
Wondering why at this hour they'd do something like that. Do the gnomes over there work the graveyard shift?

Joel - any thoughts? Just curious. I hope they do it again real_soon_now...
It's all idle speculation, but personally, my thoughts (in order) would be

a) It was someone big playing some games and raking in some cash. You know there are a stack of orders pooled there, you know they are going to have tight stops in case the slide continues, so short a bunch of eufchf, push it through the stops, let the cascade of selling push price down, buy back in at the basement as it exhausts itself, then float rumours of SNB intervention, let the speculators jump in and then sell it back to them at the top.

b) If you wanted to devalue the currency, but not spend any/much money, floating a rumour off hours would be a good way to do it. It's at a key level too, where your rumour is pretty believable, and you might just get enough people piling in to sustain a sharp move. Not sure here, the move is pretty large for something without much substance, but it did retrace quickly.

c) They might intervene off market hours before London opens with more trouble. Yesterday was bad news bears, and it it looks to get worse before London, then NFP, then the weekend... maybe you want to push in first while the market is pretty illiquid to get the most value for your dime. If you wait, you might have to sell into a bit of a buying frenzy tomorrow, and that's just not going to help.

d) a combination thereof - hedge fund tomfoolery, rumour milling and actual intervention.

In the end, who knows - I sure as hell dont Reuters has some speculation it *might* have been intervention, Bloomberg doesnt know, the SNB wont tell us for a couple of days (if ever). As I said before, I'd expect more of it - but it's an open question as to exactly *where* and *when*. Central banks cant control a floating rate indefinitely, they can only draw a line, defend it as long as possible, then fallback to the next position and defend that. Slow the advance, not stop or reverse it

Personally, I'd ask Rac. He is probably somewhere in Zurich, hiding under a ghillie suit with a parabolic mic and a laptop
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #54,086
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:42pm Feb 4, 2010 9:42pm
Just finished watching this on the Dish Network documentary channel

The film is worth watching.

Best regards


Dale
  • #54,087
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:42pm Feb 4, 2010 9:42pm
Quoting joelcf
It's all idle speculation, but personally, my thoughts (in order) would be

>snip<

Personally, I'd ask Rac. He is probably somewhere in Zurich, hiding under a ghillie suit with a parabolic mic and a laptop

Wow - exactly my thoughts....

Uh, in case no one can tell, that was BS

Thanks Joel. Rac is a sneaky little shit.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #54,088
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:46pm Feb 4, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
exactly this is what i want....people telling why they took the trade and explanation so I start to think like a trader. get the traders mentality. I dont want a signal service but a way to catch fish
thanks for ur reply
I'm a life member and everything you need to be successful is there for you in the J16 group. With that said there are no guarantees you'll make it and there is no free lunch. You will have do your part.

Joining was the best decision I made and 100% happy.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,089
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:49pm Feb 4, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting joelcf
Personally, I'd ask Rac. He is probably somewhere in Zurich, hiding under a ghillie suit with a parabolic mic and a laptop
So that's how he does it!
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,090
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:53pm Feb 4, 2010 9:53pm
Wait to load my gun...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20100205_audchf.png Size: 38 KB
Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #54,091
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:02pm Feb 4, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting goldtrader
Wait to load my gun...
There...that's much better!

Nice run Gold!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #54,092
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm
[quote=joelcf;3434140]It's all idle speculation, but personally, my thoughts (in order) would be

a) It was someone big playing some games and raking in some cash. You know there are a stack of orders pooled there, you know they are going to have tight stops in case the slide continues, so short a bunch of eufchf, push it through the stops, let the cascade of selling push price down, buy back in at the basement as it exhausts itself, then float rumours of SNB intervention, let the speculators jump in and then sell it back to them at the top.

I think this is exactly it, but I do think its an intervention. I think its just their way of doing it cheaply. Same thing happens for the yen crosses when they intervene, with sharp moves down, and quick corrections. Always done when the market is not so liquid, so it can be done as cheaply as possible. Last time this happened, was during lunch time in NY on a friday. Seen a few yen interventions too, christmas week, and thanksgiving. Probably totally off, just my opinion.
  • #54,093
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm
Quoting Jlr
I think this is exactly it, but I do think its an intervention. I think its just their way of doing it cheaply. Same thing happens for the yen crosses when they intervene, with sharp moves down, and quick corrections. Always done when the market is not so liquid, so it can be done as cheaply as possible. Last time this happened, was during lunch time in NY on a friday. Seen a few yen interventions too, christmas week, and thanksgiving. Probably totally off, just my opinion.
add a couple hundred pips and cut the retrace by half and I'd definitely agree. As is, it just seems a bit girlish - the move was only 250 pips, and then it got slammed back down. Net benefit of 80 pips, in a quiet session? My little sister can do more damage with her purse

(it could have been, of course - it just seems a bit weak, and didnt have the solid close that you would expect if they were throwing real money into it. then there is the 'shot over the bows' option, warning speculators that they can and will push through your stops if you try messing around)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #54,094
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:21pm Feb 4, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting joelcf
You assume that they *actually* intervened
Hell yeh they did:


[Dow Jones] CHF briefly drops to multi-month lows vs USD, EUR: USD/CHF at 1.0739 after touching 1.0795, and may trade in 1.0700-1.0800 range for now; EUR/CHF at 1.4723 after hitting 1.4809 and may keep to 1.4700-1.4850 band, traders say. Several traders in Tokyo say SNB has been in market, and main move did come in EUR/CHF, which seems to have been SNB's main intervention vehicle in recent times. One senior dealer at European bank in Tokyo says he saw SNB bidding for EUR/CHF for 1.49 on EBS platform, when it was at 1.46, though isn't sure in what size; "I've been a dealer for two decades, but this is my first time to see the SNB doing intervention in Asian time." Another European bank dealer also says bids went across at 1.49, when pair was at 1.46. Dealer in Singapore adds EUR/CHF is "all over the shop (with) rumours of official buying interest. It jumped two big figures in a nanno second and now (there's) contention between banks about the highs." Others remain skeptical; another senior dealer at major European bank says CHF drop was probably just due to speculators selling, while some talk of hedge fund offloading.
  • #54,095
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:27pm Feb 4, 2010 10:27pm
lol, love the rumour mill. Unnamed sources from unnamed banks making competing claims, every one of them with vested interests. You can see why retail newstraders get wiped out within like six minutes of opening an account.

time to thank jim for steering me in the right course, i think
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #54,096
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:32pm Feb 4, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting joelcf
add a couple hundred pips and cut the retrace by half and I'd definitely agree. As is, it just seems a bit girlish - the move was only 250 pips, and then it got slammed back down. Net benefit of 80 pips, in a quiet session? My little sister can do more damage with her purse

(it could have been, of course - it just seems a bit weak, and didnt have the solid close that you would expect if they were throwing real money into it. then there is the 'shot over the bows' option, warning speculators that they can and will push through...
True, was pretty weak. Looking at the weekly chart, hard to tell whether they were interventions or not, but some far more powerful moves. Be interesting to see what comes. Not sure why, but these interventions interest me a lot.
  • #54,097
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:33pm Feb 4, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting raczekfx
How did you like that 1.3675..Cbh123?
I was just about to post this. Great call man.

Cory
  • #54,098
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:45pm Feb 4, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting joelcf
Personally, I'd ask Rac. He is probably somewhere in Zurich, hiding under a ghillie suit with a parabolic mic and a laptop
It's the actual place where rumors initiate.
  • #54,099
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:12am Feb 5, 2010 12:12am
Damn this thread moves fast!.. One of the fastest moving threads online I've ever been on.

After I placed my sell orders, just coming online to manage my trades only to refresh FF J16 thread to see myself left behind @ page 3596...

It's amazing when I think of it sometimes. LOL
  • #54,100
  • Feb 5, 2010 12:25am Feb 5, 2010 12:25am
Ok guys i am off to a little vacation on hills. Won't post charts but will check in from my mobile.

Good Luck.

P.S would have love to stay around NFP time but i am already to much late.. Although i have placed some limit orders. lets see.
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