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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,801
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:41pm Feb 4, 2010 8:41pm
I believe the saying goes something like

You reap what you sow!!!


[quote=strat;3433557]With all this quality on here, I feel so humble, small and insignificant!
Annoying Precision
  • #9,802
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:51pm Feb 4, 2010 8:51pm
The AsiaPacific Chunnel

Channel or Range or ?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,803
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:08pm Feb 4, 2010 9:08pm
Here is something to do while watching the NFP on Friday.

Use the FFF calendar

The Canadian Employment CHANGE (not rate) comes out an hour and a half before the US Non Farm Payrolls (Employment Change)

Something to consider. Is the Canadian Employment Change a leading indicator for the US NFP ?

I suppose someone could go back and check historical charts. Note that some months the Canadian report comes out on a different day, after the US report. So those months the info is a non factor.
  • #9,804
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:11pm Feb 4, 2010 9:11pm
I was going to title this "Sheep Shaggers Anonymous" but thought that was pushing it - even for me.

Then I remembered the Canadian Brit, Mike Myers, did a James Bond spoof movie with a similar title so I guess it's OK.

Anyway, watch this closely - very closely - it should be very interesting.

If the technicals follow history, we have a "good idea" of where PRICE should go.

As for the funny mentals,

AUD Interest Rate is 3.75% UP from 3.5%

NZD Interest Rate is 2.5% DOWN from 3.0%

So, using the full extent of my funny mentals knowledge, the money flows into Australia at the expense of New Zealand therefore AUDNZD should increase.

Now, it can't really be that SIMPLE can it?

Over to our resident funny mentalists:

Alexandra
Razorjack
Elitejets
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,805
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:26pm Feb 4, 2010 9:26pm
Looks like the SNB just intervened to push up EURCHF. Not a very liquid pair at this time of night it looks like they bought USDCHF and GBPCHF as well, probably to leg in to EUR which means EURUSD and EURGBP go up too.
Their goal is to devalue the CHF vs the Euro but it makes them all move.

Perhaps we should trade stocks, then we wouldnt have to deal with the steamroller effect of central banks.
  • #9,806
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:47pm Feb 4, 2010 9:47pm
Quoting elitejets
Looks like the SNB just intervened to push up EURCHF. Not a very liquid pair at this time of night it looks like they bought USDCHF and GBPCHF as well, probably to leg in to EUR which means EURUSD and EURGBP go up too.
Their goal is to devalue the CHF vs the Euro but it makes them all move.

Perhaps we should trade stocks, then we wouldnt have to deal with the steamroller effect of central banks.
They mainly sold CHF against USD this time, according to news which affected all CHF pairs. EURCHF appreciation is giving some support to EURUSD but it only moved 20 pips since intervention began.
  • #9,807
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:47pm Feb 4, 2010 9:47pm
Thats why I dont trade Eur/chf unless a golden oppurtunity arises because it seems to really SPAZ OUT randomly which is lame...
Annoying Precision
  • #9,808
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:50pm Feb 4, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting strat
I was going to title this "Sheep Shaggers Anonymous" but thought that was pushing it - even for me.

Then I remembered the Canadian Brit, Mike Myers, did a James Bond spoof movie with a similar title so I guess it's OK.

Anyway, watch this closely - very closely - it should be very interesting.

If the technicals follow history, we have a "good idea" of where PRICE should go.

As for the funny mentals,

AUD Interest Rate is 3.75% UP from 3.5%

NZD Interest Rate is 2.5% DOWN from 3.0%

So, using the full extent of my funny mentals...
Hmm Maybe
The 3 G10 currencies with highest yielding rates are NZD AUD and NOK
Of these the NZD is the Japanese savers (like Mrs Watanabe's favourite).
Before April 09 they both were 3%. Then in April 09 NZ cut rates to 2.5% so up it went. Then it dropped back because China was struggling and AUD was seen as more exposed to China and more likely to cut rates too. It didnt. NZD got stronger.
In Oct the RBA started a series of incremental 0.25% rate hikes, the last of which was in Dec 09.
Now it is all a case of who the market *thinks* will recover quicker and raise rates sooner. NZD had v. bad news this week re employment (the market tanked Weds night) and that might make the market less likely to think NZD is next.

If you think the NZD is sleepy compared to the "sexy" euro or cable then check out summer 2007. It fell 500 pips in a couple of days, stabilised then crashed falling a total of 1100 pips in 2 weeks.
  • #9,809
  • Edited Feb 5, 2010 1:07am Feb 4, 2010 10:03pm | Edited Feb 5, 2010 1:07am
I'll post a few charts worth watching.

Let's start with today's star. A little bit late, but...
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  • #9,810
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:03pm Feb 4, 2010 10:03pm
AUDUSD

While I respect my learned funny mentalist friends, I am first and foremost a technical trader.

With the funny mental opinions of where AUDUSD should go, I thought it best to have a conversation with the AUDUSD BIG BOSS.

What he told me was very interesting.

August 2016 and 0.73 – Hmmm

He also told me not to tell anyone about his 4 year 3 months EW waist coast and his A – B – C correction.

He especially told me not to tell my students about his coil as he was ashamed that he exceeded his target by 724 pips

He said not to think about his next coil as my students will lose interest.

He also made me promise not to tell my students about his relationship with the Italian Ice Cream man (Fibonacci) as it could be very embarrassing for him so I’m afraid I can’t tell you about that.

He became very angry when I discussed my MAs, especially my Green Line, as he felt they were far too revealing for him.

I usually enjoy my conversations with the BIG BOSSES but after this, I don’t know.

Blackeagle – did you listen in on this conversation?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,811
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:07pm Feb 4, 2010 10:07pm
Range Breakout.
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  • #9,812
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:07pm Feb 4, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Blackeagle
A few charts worth watching, IMO.
Hopefully they have been watching this from the VERY FIRST TIME you alerted them to this - many moons ago!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,813
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting strat
Blackeagle – did you listen in on this conversation?
Of course.
  • #9,814
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm Feb 4, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting Sid
I am with you on this one Sir. Just got filled with break of BEEB (on my feed).

Here is my personal NZDUSD battle song of "formerly New Zealand's fourth most popular guitar-based digi-bongo acapella-rap-funk-comedy folk duo".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGOohBytKTU

Happy love making with the QUEEN!

Hahaha... that was a great laugh, i needed that Sid!

After my 1.25 Hr commute home from work in Bay Area traffic! AND i only live 15 miles from work! What a joke. (i guess some people thought it would be fun to play bumper cars on the highway tonight)
  • #9,815
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:11pm Feb 4, 2010 10:11pm
Oooooopppppsssssss.
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  • #9,816
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm
Gotta go out, will continue with charts when I get back.

Cheers.
  • #9,817
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm Feb 4, 2010 10:13pm
got ya covered

Quoting Blackeagle
A little bit late, but...
Annoying Precision
  • #9,818
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:26pm Feb 4, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting elitejets
Looks like the SNB just intervened to push up EURCHF. Not a very liquid pair at this time of night it looks like they bought USDCHF and GBPCHF as well, probably to leg in to EUR which means EURUSD and EURGBP go up too.
Their goal is to devalue the CHF vs the Euro but it makes them all move.

Perhaps we should trade stocks, then we wouldnt have to deal with the steamroller effect of central banks.
I deleted EURCHF from my list after their last SNB games so they didn't get me this time.

I'm seriously thinking of doing the same with GBPCHF.

USDCHF is OK - far too big for them to really mess with and besides, they would need Alexandra's permission.

Stocks - not as crazy as it sounds. Our Ryan does terrific with penny stocks in the high volatility sectors. Maybe something for our new developments - AGP - are you up for it?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,819
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:36pm Feb 4, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting pipfx
Thanks for the advise. You are right I have no where near a 1000 hours yet.... BUT I will evenutually. I now see I just got lucky here and will not mistake luck for skill at this point.

Could you point to the post that discusses exhaustion bars?
Could you point to the post that discusses exhaustion bars?

There isn't one and won't be until we move into the new developments as it is too distracting to learning basic PASR.

Learning PASR and especially basic PASR is the be all and end all to trading - there is nothing that comes even remotely close to it. Learn this until you can.........(hopefully you know the rest of this sentence).

When you understand PASR and can do it .......(fill in the space), adding additional technical information is just putting icing on the cake - make sure you have a cake FIRST!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,820
  • Edited 10:50pm Feb 4, 2010 10:38pm | Edited 10:50pm
In an effort to look ahead and for those looking for a news-inspired bounce, please note that we are up against a 2004 support in EURUSD; the stablity against GBP is reassuring as well. Timing for this is as per ones's stress-free tolerance. I would also encourage a look at the weekly USDJPY chart against the Eur-inspired fray in E/J.

USDCHF is nowhere near the same chart position - highlighting the EUR bludgeoning - the SNB has permission to rectify this obvious inequity - and we should profit from it.

There - you have your background and your S/R level - await your appropriate PA and make some dough before the arbitragers figure it out.
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