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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #54,041
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:19pm Feb 4, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
I had a post i was typing but deleted b/c I am the worst at predicting. But I was going to say if that was the "intervention" level. The snap back should have been REAL quick once we hit there. It was suspicious to say the least, Should be a good point to sell at though for those aggressive touch traders out there

Mike
I've never really studied the touch trade approach . . .obviously . .case in point. lol

I would like to see a big PB at this "intervention" level, which could be in the making as we speak. The only time I really look at the Hourly is to see how hard higher time frame PA breaks.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,042
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:20pm Feb 4, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I wasn't expecting that... I was thinking long... errrr.
lol me too. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,043
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:41pm Feb 4, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I wasn't expecting that... I was thinking long... errrr.
lol, you arent alone. where the hell did that spike come from?

The thing is, you have so many people buying francs at the moment, especially over the last few months - no european wants to be in euros atm, they want something safe that wont implode if spain and greece collapse.

And so after last nights bad news, that's just going to be magnified. Bad news leads to fear leads to panic leads to buying francs in Europe, yen in Asia and USD everywhere else. The SNB would be kinda crazy to try and run a deval program in the middle of a rush of bidding.

I wouldnt rule it out in the near future though. The Swiss economy is still pretty fragile, and deflation is a real threat. Will we get a huge pin? Maybe, maybe not. All those people buying francs gives a good opportunity for bigger players to try and establish a short franc position to take advantage of any intervention in the future at that historically significant level. Or perhaps a bit of stop hunting to clear out speculators before a big move up. Maybe.

But even if it doesnt pin, I think we are definitely going to see some more sharp moves upwards in EURCHF in the near future (and to a lesser extent, USDCHF and GBPCHF).

Then again, if the Germans keep getting angry (and history shows that, as a nation, they can get pretty cranky), they might just split the whole EU up. And then all kinds of craziness could ensue.

That's my baseless stargazing predictions and posthoc analysis for the day
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #54,044
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:44pm Feb 4, 2010 7:44pm

Well if everyone was thinking long then a stop hunt might make sense. Tight stop at strong support for a long. Maybe? That would be my low budget speculation.


Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,045
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:45pm Feb 4, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting joelcf
lol, you arent alone. where the hell did that spike come from?

The thing is, you have so many people buying francs at the moment, especially over the last few months - no european wants to be in euros atm, they want something safe that wont implode if spain and greece collapse.

And so after last nights bad news, that's just going to be magnified. Bad news leads to fear leads to panic leads to buying francs in Europe, yen in Asia and USD everywhere else. The SNB would be kinda crazy to try and run a deval program in the middle of a rush of bidding....
I like it, joel. It makes sense.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,046
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:48pm Feb 4, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting jarroo
No problem brother.


Hey Aaron lets have some fun. Lets take this eur/chf trade (blind entry, kind of) stop loss about 15 pips, off this weekly trendline and see what happens. Maybe we could get Rac to share some comments on it. Whatda say?
I was just about to agree with you when I saw the charts....lol

Shows me what a bias does to my head. I've been looking for PA hoping to not miss the big "intervention bounce" when it comes but it looks like someone used the quiet Asian session to buy a load of Swiss Francs.

That pair has just gone on to my "don't mess with this unless it's price action even my grandma would trade" list.

Makes me think though. With all this talk about fundamentals and working out the market, I say good luck to you with whatever works. Those who stay away from fundamentals do it because usually it gives them analysis paralysis. I am not terribly good at interpreting these things but the great great joy of price action is that we get to see these big orders as they go into the market.

I may not be good at interpreting the fundamentals but thank God those who are reacting to these things leave great big footprints in the market. And thank God that what Jim has taught us here helps us to see those footprints and hitch a ride along the way.

Touch trading still seems like voodoo to me...lol...my demo account fared badly.
  • #54,047
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:52pm Feb 4, 2010 7:52pm
That EURCHF chart.....madness. I don't see a high probability trade on that thing anywhere. Just the tempting promise of huge volatility to come.

That kind of tempting promise has burnt me so often I've got plastic fingertips. (Musn't miss out! Intervention coming!) Luckily we have other pairs to trade while all those looking to hitch a ride on the SNB's coattails get hammered.

Is it just me or is this the biggest moving pre-NFP day in years?
  • #54,048
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:55pm Feb 4, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting joelcf

Then again, if the Germans keep getting angry (and history shows that, as a nation, they can get pretty cranky)
This is why I love you Joel.

When are we going to see JoelCF's 30 minute TV show? Kind of like The Daily Show but for finance.....
  • #54,049
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:00pm Feb 4, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting TiaForex
I was just about to agree with you when I saw the charts....lol

Shows me what a bias does to my head. I've been looking for PA hoping to not miss the big "intervention bounce" when it comes but it looks like someone used the quiet Asian session to buy a load of Swiss Francs.

That pair has just gone on to my "don't mess with this unless it's price action even my grandma would trade" list.

Makes me think though. With all this talk about fundamentals and working out the market, I say good luck to you with whatever works. Those who stay away...
Did I say "go long" I meant short. lol


Yeah . .It's still seems a little to voodoo to me too. lol

But I thought I had some assemblage of something close to it. Oh well.

Your right, good old PA is the way to go. And "fundamentals" . . . forget about it. Although I like when Joel talks about it. He explains it in a way that I can understand.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,050
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:12pm Feb 4, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting TiaForex
This is why I love you Joel.

When are we going to see JoelCF's 30 minute TV show?
I'd pay for that.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,051
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:36pm Feb 4, 2010 8:36pm
Yeah baby!!!!

God bless roger miller.

Quoting mbqb11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj2daexbhgi
  • #54,052
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:58pm Feb 4, 2010 8:58pm
It looks to me that this pair is in a kinda make it or break it area right now, either it will go back up in the channel, or it could break out and have a good move lower
which one I don't know, but it is possible that we could find out tomorrow after NFP.
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You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.
  • #54,053
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:06pm Feb 4, 2010 9:06pm
I've never seen price drop 150+ pips in a few seconds. Unreal....

EUR/CHF
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,054
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:11pm Feb 4, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I've never seen price drop 150+ pips in a few seconds. Unreal....

EUR/CHF
Was watching 1 min charts of eur/chf, seeing if anything was about to go down. Saw a huge 1 min bar to kick off things, flip over to Oanda, and spread was up to 15 pips to play the pair. Not sure how they knew, but they knew. Fun to watch nonetheless, action lately has been interesting.
  • #54,055
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:14pm Feb 4, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting Jlr
Was watching 1 min charts of eur/chf, seeing if anything was about to go down. Saw a huge 1 min bar to kick off things, flip over to Oanda, and spread was up to 15 pips to play the pair. Not sure how they knew, but they knew. Fun to watch nonetheless, action lately has been interesting.
I had a buy order in it was up 240 pips and dropped to 60 so I closed now it's back up and now back down LMAO.

I almost made up all my losses and have my account back to BE, could have been ahead. Just by a few seconds.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,056
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:16pm Feb 4, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I had a buy order in it was up 240 pips and dropped to 60 so I closed now it's back up and now back down LMAO.

I almost made up all my losses and have my account back to BE, could have been ahead.
At least you cashed something, nice play. A profit, and a nice rush, what more can you ask for. What was your entry based on?
  • #54,057
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:21pm Feb 4, 2010 9:21pm
Fly me to the moon. wow crazy night.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,058
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:21pm Feb 4, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting Jlr
At least you cashed something, nice play. A profit, and a nice rush, what more can you ask for. What was your entry based on?
This ugly bar 5 minute. Man, I was so ready to close the trade and it just dropped like a stone.

EDIT: This was more of a roll the dice trade vs. genuine PA. I can admit that.

.
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Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #54,059
  • Edited 10:02pm Feb 4, 2010 9:22pm | Edited 10:02pm
Here is a follow up on the trades I was able to get into.

In this case I left any directional bias behind, just wanted to use the "POP" to get into positions. My hope was that fear and greed that was currently in the market would get the market to move.

Although I had several positions take a loss, my account is up a bit due to taking partial profits and I have some "free" positions.


Best regards

Dale
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  • #54,060
  • Feb 4, 2010 9:31pm Feb 4, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
This ugly bar 5 minute. Man, I was so ready to close the trade and it just dropped like a stone.


.
That first red bar, after a 200 pip move, I would of cut that thing so fast. I remember last intervention, just 5 mins or so of pure up move, and then it just ended like that. Nice play being on top of that though, I would of too, but darn spread. They didn't raise any of the other pairs, just wasn't thinking fast enough. Edit: Oh wow, just noticed, you really got in on that thing early. On my feed, was just a huge 1 min bar, was pretty obvious something was up. Seeing price at those weekly lows, seemed like now or never.
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