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  • #9,781
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:30am Feb 4, 2010 7:30am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Possible trend change in the works making LL's and LH's. Rejection of the 20 and a strong close below .7100 S/R level. Boss and Big Boss are in agreement with the daily as well.
Boi,

are you looking over my shoulder. It perfectly match my plan and i am already in this trade.
  • #9,782
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:12am Feb 4, 2010 8:12am
Quoting strat
You are very lucky in a lot of ways.

Anything 5 pips above or below a set up bar will more often than not be triggered by Daily noise (long wicks). You must use double figures at least with 20 being a better number.

If you had spent thousands of hours practicing on your charts you would see that sometimes PRICE goes half way up the last exhaustion bar.

Irrespective of profit or break even, your SL should have been no lower than above the Feb 1st exhaustion bar.

I expect PRICE to go through a short term up cycle (wobble) - let's see how you handle...
Thanks for the advise. You are right I have no where near a 1000 hours yet.... BUT I will evenutually. I now see I just got lucky here and will not mistake luck for skill at this point.

Could you point to the post that discusses exhaustion bars?
  • #9,783
  • Edited 8:42am Feb 4, 2010 8:22am | Edited 8:42am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ck#post3380125

Quoting Razorjack
USD
Boss Fundamentals (Outlook few weeks ahead): US economic recovery has been slow, but starting to pick up steam, be careful about shorting the USD. I'm shorting AUDUSD down to at least 0.87, possibly even lower and going long USDCAD up to 1.0850 or higher. I am also long on USDJPY.
AUDUSD is knocking on the door. USD is picking up momentum and I believe there is still quite a ways to go, I'm looking at 0.77 - 0.80 before a turnaround to the upside.

EDIT: It just blew through 0.87 like it was nothing...... and still falling
-Razorjack
  • #9,784
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:28am Feb 4, 2010 8:28am
Boy it's getting ugly today. Just sitting here watching and waiting. Patience I keep telling myself.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #9,785
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:43am Feb 4, 2010 8:43am
The USD seems to be gaining strength across the board, except for JPY where it is the opposite. Why is this, can anyone explain pls.
  • #9,786
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:54am Feb 4, 2010 8:54am
Quoting ave2
The USD seems to be gaining strength across the board, except for JPY where it is the opposite. Why is this, can anyone explain pls.
One word:

Risk Aversion

Sorry that's 2 words.
-Razorjack
  • #9,787
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:12am Feb 4, 2010 11:12am
Quoting strat
AUDUSD BIG BOSS

Since those are all my rules, I cannot argue with them.

All I know is that we are at the Crossroads and I ain't going anywhere until I see the road the big boys take!
Hi Stathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

It all looks like a needlework to me!!! LOL

Happy Tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,788
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:55am Feb 4, 2010 11:55am
So, NFP tomorrow. I know that the advice given here by most is to simply stay out of any trades, but what if you're already in a trade? Do you tighten your stops and then head for shelter?

There's a great line in the film 'Scent of a Woman' where Pacino (the retired Colonel) says, "Son, there are two kinds of people in this world - those who stand up and face the music, and those who run for cover... Believe me, cover is better!"
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,789
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:20pm Feb 4, 2010 12:20pm
Hi Fellow Tradershttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Last night PA looked like the NFP was announced right then and there. Was there any news that caused such a move. Dollar got a major boost.

Happy Tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,790
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:24pm Feb 4, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting Sid
I am with you on this one Sir. Just got filled with break of BEEB (on my feed).

Here is my personal NZDUSD battle song of "formerly New Zealand's fourth most popular guitar-based digi-bongo acapella-rap-funk-comedy folk duo".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGOohBytKTU

Happy love making with the QUEEN!
Hi Sidhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

This one is for all the New Zealanders I guess, it is our export to Hollywood. Good laugh, but you need to be Kiwi to understand some of their stuff too.

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,791
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:50pm Feb 4, 2010 12:50pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Jideck
Hi Sidhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

This one is for all the New Zealanders I guess, it is our export to Hollywood. Good laugh, but you need to be Kiwi to understand some of their stuff too.

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
hey jideck! i'm quite a fan of flight of the choncords! i like their clever sense of humour and great musicality. i can imagine that there are a lot of cultural references hidden in there. :-)
  • #9,792
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:15pm Feb 4, 2010 2:15pm
Rubber band effect coming into play in the majors
  • #9,793
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:26pm Feb 4, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting gododdin
So, NFP tomorrow. I know that the advice given here by most is to simply stay out of any trades, but what if you're already in a trade? Do you tighten your stops and then head for shelter?

There's a great line in the film 'Scent of a Woman' where Pacino (the retired Colonel) says, "Son, there are two kinds of people in this world - those who stand up and face the music, and those who run for cover... Believe me, cover is better!"
I'm in group A then. I personally think the hype about NFP is overdone and after a big move day the market is often quiet the following day.

The employment numbers released earlier this week (ADP non-farms and initial claims) were all worse than expected so it won't be a big surprise if its a bad number tomorrow, the market could already have it priced in and be less volatile.
Tomorrows report will also include the once a year revisions. Each report has a magic birth and death number calculated and then once a year they issue the correction for the year. Bloomberg are reporting that as many as 800,000 more people than previously thought could have lost their jobs last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oQ0vb4M&pos=10
Either way if its on Bloomberg there is a good chance the market has priced it in.

I might be a called a heretic but if I already had a good thing running I would stick to my plan.
Before Strat shouts at me, however, I would say if you are not an experience trader best watch from the sidelines.
  • #9,794
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:31pm Feb 4, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting strat
Now, if your plan had included "I'm shooting for a target of ____, but if I see this price action I will do _______, and my plan changes" then that may be OK.

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO and just in case you don't get the message, NO!

The PLAN must be RIGID, SPECIFIC, IRREVOCABLE and WITHOUT QUESTION.

To do otherwise is providing food for your little people and triggering their hunger for YOUR control.

Accept and TRUST the PLAN and FOLLOW IT THROUGH WITHOUT QUESTION.

If you...
I heard that Strat. As soon as I get my monitor down off the blocks I'm going to carve those words right in the side with my Buck Skinner knife. --------- Thanks my friend.
  • #9,795
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:44pm Feb 4, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting elitejets
I might be a called a heretic but if I already had a good thing running I would stick to my plan.

Before Strat shouts at me, however, I would say if you are not an experienced trader best watch from the sidelines.
I guess all will be revealed... Personally as a rookie I shall be just watching (in between reading the thread from the beginning again, when I should be working!).
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,796
  • Edited 3:15pm Feb 4, 2010 2:48pm | Edited 3:15pm
The NFP is the darling of choice at the moment. At one time it was the trade numbers. I just trade through it, but I never enjoy it. In the long run, it matters little - the longer term charts carry the weight of the move. But it can sure cause a hiccup of late. Today's developements got me both ways - to the good and to the bad. Apparently, I am well hedged against the stupidity of risk aversion.
  • #9,797
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:00pm Feb 4, 2010 4:00pm
I can't say I know what is going to happen next, but what just happened today I have to sit back and digest. Using Strat's method the NZD trade bagged triple digit pips. If anyone remembers Strat's call on the NZDUSD top? A series of inside bars and he warned of an impending change. Well I applied that to the weekly GBP/JPY with a small position size, and successfully closed that trade today for more positive pips than I have ever made. So much that I bailed from both trades like a bandit...
  • #9,798
  • Edited 6:22pm Feb 4, 2010 6:16pm | Edited 6:22pm
With all this quality on here, I feel so humble, small and insignificant!

Post #9771
Watch out for psycho 0.69

Post #9752
Originally Posted by 30XTCi
Strat, I get the feeling they are setting up a bull trap here, I'd love to see 0.8660 taken out first. Time will tell, just my 2 cents.
Roy

Post #9773
Something's going on Roy, that's for sure and I'm not clever enough to know what so I will follow as usual.

Razorjack
Posts #9775 and #9339

I believe we're in risk aversion mode and I'm anticipating a continued down trend in the MEDIUM TERM.
BOSS Fundamentals are pointing downwards with USD and JPY strengthening against AUD, CAD, and NZD and to a lesser extent against EUR and GBP.

We could see AUDUSD hit 80 maybe even down to the 75-77 range, if it really builds up momentum. I think that level would also encourage risk taking again.

However to me, it looks like AUDUSD WORKER down trend is close to or at exhaustion. I'm looking for PA to either glide upwards a few days or to make a small break now below support and test it as a resistance before the big break downwards as my belief is that the BIG BOSS still needs a correction before it can continue upwards again.

Post #9779
AUDUSD BIG BOSS Crossroads

AUDUSD BIG BOSS

Since those are all my rules, I cannot argue with them.

All I know is that we are at the Crossroads and I ain't going anywhere until I see the road the big boys take!

elitejets
Post #9757
Quote:
Originally Posted by 30XTCi
Strat, I get the feeling they are setting up a bull trap here, I'd love to see 0.8660 taken out first. Time will tell, just my 2 cents.
Roy

I concur. I think this is to shake out the weak handed shorts before a move down.

erikte279
Post #9760
He said the big boys are clearing the stop run HIGHS. Which to ME implys that the market makers are going try to clear out some stops before the market proceeds lower.

USDCAD: Post #9712
TRADER HELPING TRADERS

Originally Posted by BaliuxXx
respected 1.0700 resistance. short order below today's BEEB's low.

Be careful - watch closely what happens at 1.0550 and then 1.0460

CrudeCraig
NZD/USD Post #9754
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Post #9780
hcristea

Time is near for Aussie to kneel too.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,799
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:16pm Feb 4, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting Donadoney
I can't say I know what is going to happen next, but what just happened today I have to sit back and digest. Using Strat's method the NZD trade bagged triple digit pips. If anyone remembers Strat's call on the NZDUSD top? A series of inside bars and he warned of an impending change. Well I applied that to the weekly GBP/JPY with a small position size, and successfully closed that trade today for more positive pips than I have ever made. So much that I bailed from both trades like a bandit...
Hi Donadoneyhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

This stuff is great, congratulations on the trades. It feels good to bag a lot of pips, doesn't it.
Move on to new opportunity, forget the last trade as it did not happen and try to start from the beginning - this is what I do.

NZDUSD will go more down IMO.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,800
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:22pm Feb 4, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting strat
With all this quality on here, I feel so humble, small and insignificant!

Post #9771
Watch out for psycho 0.69

Post #9752
Originally Posted by 30XTCi [IMG]file:///C:/Users/Robert/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image001.gif[/IMG]
[i][font=Arial]Strat,...
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

One would have to be blind not to see the footprints that your posts leave. It is only a matter of understanding it and putting it all into place that needs to be done. It is a new realisation for me to be in quadruple pips profit on all the trades I made this month!!

Many thanks for the guidenance.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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