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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #54,001
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:55pm Feb 4, 2010 2:55pm
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???

I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...

Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs seem to react more to fear of the now massive US gov't/massive financial market in the US?

Possibly it's my own mental block of listening to too much CNBC (30 minutes a day during cardio workouts, lol) or trying to fundamentally implement snippets I hear around youtube?


I see a lot of you successfully trading the USD pairs, so I think maybe my own mental block of having TOO MUCH information on the USD is my flaw?


For those of you who just read this whole rant.... Thank you...

Am I alone in this????



EDIT: also good work to anyone who was still in GBP/JPY... just. wow.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,002
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:00pm Feb 4, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting jarroo
Possible spots to look for some PA. Who knows.
Jim,

quick question for you brother. Do you just pay attention to bar highs/lows or are you looking at open/closes too? And is it a case of "I look 90% at bar highs/lows because that's where price bounced but I keep an eye on closes out of the corner of my eye too". I mean what weight would you give to highs/lows vs closes/opens.

Sorry, not expressing myself too clearly. Shoot me a reply if you need clarification on what I'm after.

Thanks buddy.

Aaron
  • #54,003
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:04pm Feb 4, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???

I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...

Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs seem...
Hey Dan

I think this sounds more like a mental block or just possibly not enough of a sample size to make such a leap. I would continue to trade how you trade, b/c the time will prob come where you run bad on the cross pairs and clean up on the USD pairs

Mike
  • #54,004
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:08pm Feb 4, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???

I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...

Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs...

Hey Dan

let my try it to explain what are my thoughts

first of all you should skip the part of watching news TV,they will only get you more confuse,just forget of them

technical speaking it's all the same on the USD pairs,just that people don't get it that we are already in a new trend,they will figure out to late of this situation,there are a LOT of people that are thinking that this movement are just a retracement, off the main trend, and they still buy, buy as much as they can but all they do is to accelerate the price to fall

after the facts is simple to see the new trend is in place.......

hope I was clearly enough

maybe someone will have a different opinion

wish you the best!
  • #54,005
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:09pm Feb 4, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Dan

I think this sounds more like a mental block or just possibly not enough of a sample size to make such a leap. I would continue to trade how you trade, b/c the time will prob come where you run bad on the cross pairs and clean up on the USD pairs

Mike
I realize it's a very very very small sample size, but I cannot deny the fact that my account summary terminal has this STRONG pattern going on in it. I know when I trade I can't use "tips" or "advice" from other people to manage what I do, but I feel as though it's a secondary thought in my mind that I don't even know is there! (serious)

Try watching youtube/cnbc and hearing an analyst discuss fundamentals of GBP/CHF... that won't ever happen. and I have traded that pair very well.... I think I have made a HUGE breakthrough on my own psychology issues today....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,006
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:14pm Feb 4, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???

I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...

Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs...
Hi Dan,
regarding losing USD pairs, it's interesting phenomena of your trading. But before excluding USD pairs I would have closer look at those losing trades and tried to find out if it's not something else. Were they good setups, at least as good as on your crosses? How did you managed them? Any differences to your crosses? If so, why you trade them differently. Just closer look at them, before throwing them to the trash. You know, measure twice cut once :-)

About the news, personally I was trying to "be informed" every day, reading UBS and Saxo analysis as well as some others. What I find out is that it just kept my head occupied by a lot of information and relations and I lost focus on important thing- price action. I was rethinking each setups 50 times, checking if some news were there, will be there etc. In the end it didn't help me at all. Also it took too much time a day to read it all, and also they often say opposite things, so what's the point?

So I don't bother to be informed about each data release/ event every day. Keep it simple. If you want to have just general idea of "what's going on" read some summary each month/2 weeks, and just watch NFP. That's what I do.

My 2 cents,

Mikey
  • #54,007
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:16pm Feb 4, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting triger88990
first of all you should skip the part of watching news TV,they will only get you more confuse,just forget of them
yeah I'm definitely not going to anymore AT ALL, not even for comedy - which is the main reason i watch those shows to begin with. I think its just a secondary thought in my head that effects my trading in a very negative way - whether I know the thought is there or not.


As far as technically speaking, its the same on USD pairs, as cross pairs - - I agree with you I think. This is just my own mental block I have....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,008
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:19pm Feb 4, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting triger88990
Hey Dan

...and they still buy, buy as much as they can but all they do is to accelerate the price to fall
I'm trying hard but I really don't see how buying e.g EURUSD will accelerate the price to fall...

Am I again missing something or you mistyped?
  • #54,009
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:20pm Feb 4, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting TiaForex
Jim,

quick question for you brother. Do you just pay attention to bar highs/lows or are you looking at open/closes too? And is it a case of "I look 90% at bar highs/lows because that's where price bounced but I keep an eye on closes out of the corner of my eye too". I mean what weight would you give to highs/lows vs closes/opens.

Sorry, not expressing myself too clearly. Shoot me a reply if you need clarification on what I'm after.

Thanks buddy.

Aaron
I would say I agree with 90%-80% on the High/Lows 10%-20% on the Open/Close. But when they all start lining up especailly at a RN I really take notice. Meaning, for example, the High and/or Low of one bar is lining up with the Open and/or Close of another bar. Something is going on at this level.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,010
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:21pm Feb 4, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting michal7
Hi...
Possibly I'm over-trading USD pairs because I am over-confident in the extra information I think I have on it.

As far as not throwing them in the trash, they are definitely going in the trash as far as the live account is concerned because they are screwing with my profits... I will continue demoing the USD pairs until I can sort out this problem... That will be my way of measuring twice

NFP is king I know .
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #54,011
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:26pm Feb 4, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting michal7
I'm trying hard but I really don't see how buying e.g EURUSD will accelerate the price to fall...

Am I again missing something or you mistyped?
nope I heaven't mistyped anything

don't forget that whatever the direction of the price moves there is always someone else on the other boat

or maybe I haven't get the principles of price movements

wish you the best!!

PS: don't forget you are just a retail trader not an institutional one
  • #54,012
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:34pm Feb 4, 2010 3:34pm
Hi All,
Still 30 mins to close, but as it stands eurusd is at a great level to be on the lookout for PA...
The weekly chart shows this level goes way back...I've had that line on the chart for a while and the price has
stopped right there!

Nothing there yet (unless you're in the mood for a touch trade) but worth keeping an eye on I think...perhaps after NFP.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd weekly.gif Size: 20 KB
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #54,013
  • Edited 4:02pm Feb 4, 2010 3:38pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Missed most of the action today cos of the day job....hmmm trading today would have paid more I feel!
I missed it due to getting drunk last night & sleeping, just got into work saw all the charts. I still had my nzd/usd short open so still got a small piece of the pie.
Learning to be rigid in my rules & flexible in my expectations
  • #54,014
  • Edited 7:41pm Feb 4, 2010 3:52pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting james16
VERY NICE J.

i saw your post after i sent this out. after seeing your post i thought i would go ahead and post it here.

there is a reason why jim thinks like i do. he has been riding with me for a while and we are both conservative minded.

jim
In light of the recent move in the Cad.

I strongly believe that the conservative trade management of this style, as shown in your chart (and mine), is worth way more then showing a chart in which Price went to the moon for a 1000 pips.

Thanks Jim,


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,015
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:04pm Feb 4, 2010 4:04pm
Buying a currency pair would make it rise (demand increases, price goes up) and shorting it would make it fall (demand decreases, price falls). It's that simple. When it comes to round numbers, ppz, etc., large orders to buy / sell tend to hover in those areas. When price falls through a round number, for instance, several large stop losses may be in place just below that number. Those stops are placed by people who have bought the currency pair. Once the price falls through that round number, those stops begin getting picked off which creates several "sell" orders, thus accelerating the speed of the fall. The larger the orders, the faster the fall. I hope this helps clarify.
  • #54,016
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:20pm Feb 4, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting nasir.khan
hey guys please don't start to mess around with you trade management plans just only because they moved 100-200 pips more then it often does.what happened today happens 1 out of 10 times. So tell me would you tailor you MM and trade management style accordingly to what happens 9 times or to what happens just once out of 10.keep doing what you do. :thumsup:
what i wanted to say is that if you see an opportunity on a higher time frame or you think that the trade has some potential to move in your direction you can always move your stops to BE and leave let say 1/4 of you trade to see what happens, in any case you bagged in some pips and you dont lose anything

just my 2 pips (recently saw someone saying this on this thread)
  • #54,017
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:32pm Feb 4, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???

I'm thinking of switching to just cross-pairs because this has been really wild, and I JUST realized the only reason I've had losing trades, is because I took positions on the USD pairs...

Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs...
Hey Dan could you show some of the USD pairs that you took or were watching that didn't go your way?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #54,018
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:50pm Feb 4, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
it's funny that so far, in my live trading experience, I have had no losers on my cross-currency trades, and MANY break evens/losers on USD based pairs... Does anyone have a theory as to why???
Variance. It's all sample size. I've seen your charts, and you seem to be doing everything right, so I wouldnt stress too much about changing the way you do things

Quoting Dan Gilbert
Maybe the cross currencys are just more technically inclined, and more people are looking at the same thing as the people in this thread???? Where as the USD pairs seem to react more to fear of the now massive US gov't/massive financial market in the US?
Technicals are fundamentals are technicals. As you suggest, USD pairs do move on good/bad news, but that is less to do with US strength than it might seem - remember that USD is where funds are held... and so, on bad news in the US, you will tend to see the US dollar strengthen (which seems counterintuitive at first) as money floods out of other currencies.

That's why the news earlier has AUDJPY down (oh noes, apocalypse! kill the carry trades!), USDJPY up (I dont want this crazy moon money, gimme US dollars) and USDX is through the roof, even though it was bad US news.

Anyhoo, the point is that technicals are driven by fundamentals, so as long as there is sufficient volume, no currency is more technical than another

Quoting Dan Gilbert
I see a lot of you successfully trading the USD pairs, so I think maybe my own mental block of having TOO MUCH information on the USD is my flaw?
I cant think of a single situation in my life where I wish I was *less* informed
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #54,019
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:04pm Feb 4, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting goldtrader
IB trades...
1 hits target and 2 hit stoploss, the total is nearly +1R, ... and to say i do not really feel comfortable, am i trying to search for the Holy Grail? (that's not good... huh), OK, let's do it from the beginning ...
Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #54,020
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:15pm Feb 4, 2010 5:15pm
Hi,

Just popping in to say hello. I'm still watching the higher tf charts and haven't spotted a really good setup in quite some time. (Not saying there haven't been any!). So I've opened a 2nd demo account to trade the A++ AND the less than A++ setups. This should satisfy my trigger finger and curiosity.

I've moved down to 4 hour and am doing quite well. I'll try to post some charts next week of these 'lesser' setups, maybe they are A++ and I'm just not experienced enough to distinguish. Account is up 3% for the week and I've taken around 20 of these less promising setups. There were a few losses, but mostly breakevens and winners.

It will be interesting to see how the 2 demo accounts look after 3 months.

Jarroo, I promise I'll try harder to use your bar stop trailing method next week! It would have turned some of those b/e's to winners.

There were quite a few 8 Hour pins that worked out, an example below which was a bearish setup off PPZ/xx50, good location, at swing high. TP was set fairly conservatively just above the PPZ below the RN 1.2600, the lower red line which was also the first trouble area that I was cautious about.



- TTP -

...
Attached Image
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