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  • #3,041
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:17am Feb 4, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Custos
hm, well, there had to be a trigger today to justify such big moves. A perception of a currency being safe is not really a trigger, just a perception traders and investors get over time. Also I am not sure if investors nowadays think that the USD is a safe investment. I would prefer the euro, more stable economy...

just my opinion
I am not sure what caused that, some news had to break somewhere, see we get the news late, even off the economic calendar we get it after the fact, I am not sure where to get live up to the moment news like the big boys are getting. Because they trade the news before we get a chance to even see it we only see the outcome after the fact.

--NM
  • #3,042
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:21am Feb 4, 2010 11:21am
Quoting NightMoves
I am not sure what caused that, some news had to break somewhere, see we get the news late, even off the economic calendar we get it after the fact, I am not sure where to get live up to the moment news like the big boys are getting. Because they trade the news before we get a chance to even see it we only see the outcome after the fact.

--NM
yeah, I guess if you have some spare-cash you can buy reuters and bloomberg, I think they are the fastest media out there. But just costs a couple of thousands of dollars.

However, since we avoid the news with this trading technique, such an investment would be a real waste, haha.
  • #3,043
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:22am Feb 4, 2010 11:22am
Quoting NightMoves
I am not sure what caused that, some news had to break somewhere, see we get the news late, even off the economic calendar we get it after the fact, I am not sure where to get live up to the moment news like the big boys are getting. Because they trade the news before we get a chance to even see it we only see the outcome after the fact.

--NM
2010-02-04 04:51:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: EUR Plunges As Risk Aversion Picks Up

2010-02-04 04:55:00 PM =DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro, Pound Sink On Sovereign Debt Concerns

2010-02-04 04:43:00 PM *DJ Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion Across The Board

2010-02-04 04:52:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: Yen, Dollar Up Sharply As Riskier Assets Swoon


Saw this on the news feed.

pipnut
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #3,044
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:29am Feb 4, 2010 11:29am
Quoting pipnut
2010-02-04 04:51:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: EUR Plunges As Risk Aversion Picks Up

2010-02-04 04:55:00 PM =DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro, Pound Sink On Sovereign Debt Concerns

2010-02-04 04:43:00 PM *DJ Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion Across The Board

2010-02-04 04:52:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: Yen, Dollar Up Sharply As Riskier Assets Swoon


Saw this on the news feed.

pipnut
interesting, so question is why suddenly the start becoming risk averse? I still think there gotta be a trigger or rumour going around the banks that triggered this. People don't get risk averse out of the blue. And I guess the sovereign budget situation was already pretty clear before, or not?
  • #3,045
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:32am Feb 4, 2010 11:32am
Quoting pipnut
2010-02-04 04:51:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: EUR Plunges As Risk Aversion Picks Up

2010-02-04 04:55:00 PM =DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro, Pound Sink On Sovereign Debt Concerns

2010-02-04 04:43:00 PM *DJ Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion Across The Board

2010-02-04 04:52:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: Yen, Dollar Up Sharply As Riskier Assets Swoon


Saw this on the news feed.

pipnut
Yep I just searched around and found something simlar, so risk aversion seems to to be part of the reason, but that seems like such a huge move. Interesting to to say the least, now those investors caused all that commotion and how did that many investors know to do that all at one time? That is the kind of information we need to find, all those investors made a killing on that move and knew when to do it.

How did they all know that? Thats what I would like to know, why did we not know that? Where do we get this kind of info in a timely fashion.

--NM
  • #3,046
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:33am Feb 4, 2010 11:33am
Sorry to be this blunt, PIPNUTS, but that is just: BULLSHIT explanations.

I saw that on my wires too...but, think about it, that is not analysis. that is not even news. everybody knows this already. Heck, the crazy rabbit in my backyard knows it.


Quoting pipnut
2010-02-04 04:51:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: EUR Plunges As Risk Aversion Picks Up

2010-02-04 04:55:00 PM =DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro, Pound Sink On Sovereign Debt Concerns

2010-02-04 04:43:00 PM *DJ Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion Across The Board

2010-02-04 04:52:00 PM DJ MARKET TALK: Yen, Dollar Up Sharply As Riskier Assets Swoon


Saw this on the news feed.

pipnut
  • #3,047
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:35am Feb 4, 2010 11:35am
Quoting NightMoves
Yep I just searched around and found something simlar, so risk aversion seems to to be part of the reason, but that seems like such a huge move. Interesting to to say the least, now those investors caused all that commotion and how did that many investors know to do that all at one time? That is the kind of information we need to find, all those investors made a killing on that move and knew when to do it.

How did they all know that? Thats what I would like to know, why did we not know that? Where do we get this kind of info in a timely fashion....
'
This is what my weekend will be focused on. I am with you there, nightmoves.

Personally, i think that risk aversion is just a lame excuse. everybody already knows the risk aversion theories to death. numb from hearing it over and over.
  • #3,048
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:35am Feb 4, 2010 11:35am
Quoting Custos
interesting, so question is why suddenly the start becoming risk averse? I still think there gotta be a trigger or rumour going around the banks that triggered this. People don't get risk averse out of the blue. And I guess the sovereign budget situation was already pretty clear before, or not?
Good question, I just watch the PA nowadays and look for "swings off the area of Dynamic support/resistance"

pipnut
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #3,049
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:37am Feb 4, 2010 11:37am
You can have rapidly updated news here:

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Forex.aspx
  • #3,050
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:39am Feb 4, 2010 11:39am
Quoting NightMoves
Yep I just searched around and found something simlar, so risk aversion seems to to be part of the reason, but that seems like such a huge move. Interesting to to say the least, now those investors caused all that commotion and how did that many investors know to do that all at one time? That is the kind of information we need to find, all those investors made a killing on that move and knew when to do it.

How did they all know that? Thats what I would like to know, why did we not know that? Where do we get this kind of info in a timely fashion....
You never know, maybe a banker got a tip from a government official and called his buddies in other banks to put on some large billion dollar positions and move this thing down.
I would not be surprised if in the upcoming days some surprising news happen justifying exactly that move.
  • #3,051
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:43am Feb 4, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Custos
hm, well, there had to be a trigger today to justify such big moves. A perception of a currency being safe is not really a trigger, just a perception traders and investors get over time. Also I am not sure if investors nowadays think that the USD is a safe investment. I would prefer the euro, more stable economy...

just my opinion
based on what i read around the news the reason why USD is considered a safe investment is because it is the global currency for trade. global trading is priced in dollars and as such a business or an individual needs to buy dollars to transact.
  • #3,052
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:48am Feb 4, 2010 11:48am
Quoting piyeree
based on what i read around the news the reason why USD is considered a safe investment is because it is the global currency for trade. global trading is priced in dollars and as such a business or an individual needs to buy dollars to transact.
good point. Since usd is the most important currency in the world it will never default (hopefully). Just saying that the euro is maybe more stable overall, since the european economy doesn't participate so much in economic downswings as well as upswings. But I am no economist, so maybe my opinion here is totally wrong.

best regards
  • #3,053
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:50am Feb 4, 2010 11:50am
The two culprits responsible for JPY and USD today. Caught RED handed. See their pictures below:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1265305775

and HIS alter EGO:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1265305775
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TRICHET.jpg Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: trichet brother.jpg Size: 43 KB
  • #3,054
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:55am Feb 4, 2010 11:55am


pipnut
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #3,055
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:07pm Feb 4, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting pipnut
Good question, I just watch the PA nowadays and look for "swings off the area of Dynamic support/resistance"

pipnut
LOL Yes that works all the time, these kinds of moves only come around once in while and would it not be nice to know when these moves are going to happen, somebody knows the answer to this...I can feel the answer is out there somewhere...LOL

--NM
  • #3,056
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:10pm Feb 4, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting EntropyLad
The two culprits responsible for JPY and USD today. Caught RED handed. See their pictures below:


and HIS alter EGO:
Damn I think you just found the holy Grail....I am going to run uptown and get me one of those glass balls with the dollar signs in it, in this town I know they sell them somewhere, anything that is useless is on the shelves somewhere in this toursist town...

--NM
  • #3,057
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:16pm Feb 4, 2010 12:16pm
Keep an eye on the Kiwi and USD, it looks like it is in great position for a very long ride......I am going to watch that pair like a hawk over the next few days (not counting saturday of course) this could be a real good opportunity to get a brazillian beach houses....

--NM
  • #3,058
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:17pm Feb 4, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting NightMoves
LOL Yes that works all the time, these kinds of moves only come around once in while and would it not be nice to know when these moves are going to happen, somebody knows the answer to this...I can feel the answer is out there somewhere...LOL

--NM
Oh Whoowwww - I am particularly please with these massive moves, I spotted their breakouts and now feel like brazillian beach houses / african game farms!

AU trade from yesterday hit the final target - whow... Pitty the others were paper trades, but at least they were identified and paper trader - rather than ignored.

Intraday Market Thought: Global Markets sell-off intensifies, sending"2010.02.04 12:00: Global Markets sell-off intensifies, sending USD and JPY soaring cross the board, but YEN gets the best of USD as the pair targets 88.3061.8% retracement of the 84.85-93.76 move. One of the main culprits was the Portuguese-German 10 year spreads hitting a fresh 11-month highs of 156 bps on reports that Portuguese PM had threatened to resign if Parliament passed a bill that would increase spending. EURJPY & GBPJPY are down +500 pips. EURUSD hits $1.37 less than 24 hours after we called the $1.32 target yesterday. Although markets are eyeing Fridays US jobs report, todays market moves are stealing the show w/ indices down 2%. Watch out for market whipsaws (retracements) during NY Lunch hour before renewed gains in JPY. GOLD still expected to hit that 1040 target after we called the failure at 1123-35 earlier this week. THANKS ! "
  • #3,059
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:24pm Feb 4, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting NightMoves
LOL Yes that works all the time, these kinds of moves only come around once in while and would it not be nice to know when these moves are going to happen, somebody knows the answer to this...I can feel the answer is out there somewhere...LOL

--NM
I know what you are saying, but IMHO, trying to chase the news around and predict the market's reaction is a lot of work for the occasional reward. You may miss a great move today but there is always tomorrow's setup waiting for you with this system. In the end the news will either be with you and you score big or against you and you get stopped out with a profit (hopefully!)

pipnut
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometime.
  • #3,060
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:29pm Feb 4, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting pipnut
I know what you are saying, but IMHO, trying to chase the news around and predict the market's reaction is a lot of work for the occasional reward. You may miss a great move today but there is always tomorrow's setup waiting for you with this system. In the end the news will either be with you and you score big or against you and you get stopped out with a profit (hopefully!)

pipnut
Agree - chasing the news is like a dog chasing a bus, not sure how lucky you're going to get, what if you don't catch the bus, but the bus catches you... not too many smiles around then...

I like the safe and conservative way.
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