(binned per thread starter's request) For What It's Worth

My first E/J trade was at 134.06, with exit of second trade at 133.19, for a total move of 87 pips, and I captured 109 pips from that move. This is why I love fibs!

Here is a cleaned-up picture of the trades above:

Just shorted the GBP/$ at 1.6534, with a stop at 1.6540. Unknown limit, maybe the 1.6500, not sure. This was in response to the GBP hitting the .786 fib.
Edit: I am going to keep my stop where it is and set my limit at 1.6490. If stopped out, I will wait for a second reaction to the 786 and then re-evaluate an entry. Risking 6 pips for 44 pips, so ok for now with this trade.
Edit: Square with a 6 pip loss.

Short again the GBP/$ at 1.6536, with a stop at 1.6550, and limit of 1.6490. Last try on this one.
Edit: moved my stop to 1.6530.
Edit: square at 1.6530. Got my 6 pips back! I think it will eventually move back to below 6500, but am changing my focus to elsewhere now.

Posting just one of my trades from today, the $/CHF. The red lines show when and where I moved my stop as the PA unfolded.

It's been about a month since my last post, so I thought I would throw a few charts in from today trading the E/J. First trade happened around 4:20AM today. This was a breaking, engulfing candle on the 10M chart. My first target is the -1.27 fibo, but my ultimate target was 45 pips. I put in another set of fibs on the move and placed my stop at about 20 pips, well below the .786 fib for a retracement. Also, notice that the orange line above fills the gap from Sunday's open.



The next chart shows what happened as the morning progressed. It took about three hours for the thing to move towards my limit. As you can see, there is a price rejection. I then put in another set of fibs on the most recent move up, and waited for price action to retrace to the .50 fib to place a second position, which occurred on a spike. When that occurred, I put a stop at about the stop on the first trade, which had been raised to positive pips by this time (this was about a 15 pip stop). The limit on the second trade was again 45 pips.



The last chart shows how the trade progressed. Limit was hit on both trades and that was it for my E/J trading today.



I know there are traders who do not use fibs, but for me it is a nice crutch for trading and adding to my positions. The basic idea is that as the trend develops, and surges occur, the market will move then retrace, then move again and retrace. If the .786 fib is breached, then the trend is probably over, at least for me. But as long as the .786 is not hit, I consider the trend that I am trading to be in force and additional positions can be added to hits at the .50 fib. I know other traders look for .618 hits, but I like the .50.

Here is another trade from this evening on the GBP/$. Basically, the same concept as previously described. Breaking candle (the orange resistance line). Notice the fibs. After breaking candle, the PA hit the .50 fib, which for me adds validity to trading the break. Stop is only 15 pips away, and target was 35 pips. Also notice how the -.618 broke the up move, as expected. Ultimate target remains the -1.27. Will watch for another entry at the .50 if the price action retraces this most recent move.

Here is a trade from this morning with some TA included. Great E/J opportunity with small risk for large reward, with the first target being the first -.270 fib, where the PA had some difficulty moving through, but eventually it did get through. When the initial move started to retrace, I added the next fib levels and moved my stop to the .618 fib/just below the entry price. When the PA showed notice of or respect for the .382 level, I decided to stay in the trade until the -.270 was hit. Eventually, the price movement went further south and hit another fib target below (I think it was the -.618), but I did get 81 pips out of the trade.

Here is another trade from last week on the $/CAD, making proper use of TA. Chart one shows a breakout trade opening up on the 10M candle at 1:50A CST. I was asleep at that time so I started evaluating the next entry at around 2:40A. My strategy is to enter as the market approaches a significant fib level, which in this case is the .500 fib, entering with an 18 pip stop (risk) and a target at the -1.27 level, which is about 75 pips.



The next chart shows the PA moving to the target.



As you can see, once the -1.27 fib level is hit the market starts a pull back. I added the next level of TA to determine where I would risk more money on this move up.



I decided to wait to see if the equalibrium area would attract the PA, which is also where two fib levels overlapped. I made the entry as PA hit the 50. fib level/ .786 fib level overlap. My stop was about 15 pips and my target was the .786 fib level of the retracement move.



Two trades and about 114 pips.

I've been neglecting my journal for several months now, and have decided to put more focus here rather than participate in other threads. I will start posting at least one trade every day, or make comments on news events as they come up. This thread is for documenting my trading in a shared environment for comments and discussion.

Two trades on the GBP/$ today. The first trade was on the break of a support line at 1.5866, the second trade on a retrace to the .50 fib at 1.5844. Together these trades added up to 63 pips. Trades were made ahead of the BOE announcement to hold QE and interest rates, which caused the market to sharply reverse above the support line.

Another trade from today, this time on the E/J. Entry after a retrace to a .50 fib with a quick entry (you need to be focused to catch the best entry). Reasonable stop of 20 pips with a target of 40 pips (2 to 1 ratio).



Have also taken several quick .50 fib hit trades on the E/$ and the CAD today for 15 pips each, just chipping away on those pairs as other better trades develop.

There have been some comments lately regarding forex market structure and liquidity, and I want to demonstrate in this journal that there are no issues with the forex now and trading is good and profitable. That does not mean that problems will not develop in the future, but for the time being everything works fine, at least for my trading. Stay focused and good trading.

Another trade on the E/J that is still open. Entered on the 50 fib retrace that got close to moving over the .786 but did not. I am now protecting the entry on this one and will watch for follow thru beyond 125.00.



Edit: square and out at the 124.87 target, but I am not going to post a chart to show that it hit the target. Take my word for it as it move on south past 124.76 now.

Final trade posting of the day. Just exited a E/J trade for +130 pips. Entry was on a small retrace at the .382 fib, with a stop of 25 pips at the .786 fib. I had to adjust the limit several times as the trade really rolled south.



As I type this the E/J is strongly moving south again, and the E/$ is moving south, too. It seems that confidence in Europe has taken a hit today and money is flowing to the dollar and yen. Great trading day and I hope everyone got theirs today. Back to work...where are the buyers?

OK, NFP tomorrow at NY open, but also same report for Canada an hour and half ahead of NFP US. However, before that, PPI for GBP at London. Should be some interesting trading tomorrow. Word of caution: the Labor Department will adjust unemployment by about 850K tomorrow, which by itself should drive the unemployment rate from 10.0 to 10.3'ish (at least). Very nervous trading around this number, and when combined with questions about EC (Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc) and the G7 meeting this weekend, expect just about anything.

Been on the side lines since London open waiting for the market to reveal itself. Conflicting indications now, and chart analysis has been correct all morning pointing to a wait trade. Let's see how NY handles this now that the equity markets are open. I am leaning south on the euro, e/j, and gbp; north on the cad. We'll see, but better to wait than be stupid with a guess. Focus.

Edit: after the announcement, it seems pretty clear that the numbers are being engineered and are subject to heavy revisions.

Happy trading day to eveyone. Good trades all day and here are two on the E/J. The first is based on a hit of the .50 fib, the second was on a break of the bear flag after a hit of the .618 fib. Both trades had 35 pips stops and 70 pip limits. Here is trade 1:



Trade 2 was later in the morning (all times on the charts are CST USA) and was about the time of an announcement of relief for Greece. Here is trade 2:



Total take was 133 pips (140 minus spread).

I start my day at 2:30 AM CST USA, and I love it when I see a chart setting up as it did this morning on the E/$. Small risk (just above the .786 fib) for large return (targeting the -.786 fib). The trend on the 4H chart was down. Entry was on the hit of the 50 fib, and I love it when the trade involves a big candle in my direction. Here is the set up chart:



My stop was 18 pips, and the limit was 60. Here is the result:

Been a while since I posted a trade, so I thought these two trades from today would be good posts. Both on the E/J.

First trade was after a break of a previous resistance and subsequent retrace/reload to a .50 fib. First chart is the entry and the second is the result:



Second trade was a follow on trade, after a retrace to the .50 fib again and with a small stop level just below the .786 fib.