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  • #9,761
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:16pm Feb 3, 2010 10:16pm
Quoting erikte279
He said the big boys are clearing the stop run HIGHS. Which to ME implys that the market makers are going try to clear out some stops before the market proceeds lower.

Thats why I asked T.H.A.T. question
T.H.A.T. question for your information, was similar to the first question I ever asked Strat and that was his response...go and read the damn thread, so I'm not being too out of place here. What you don't know is that your question whether or not you had the correct answer in mind exposed your lack of confidence, and someone who has read the thread would automatically and confidently know what he meant.

Just my opinion, which means nothing.
  • #9,762
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:23pm Feb 3, 2010 10:23pm
apology accepted

Quoting Donadoney
Just my opinion, which means nothing.
Annoying Precision
  • #9,763
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:27pm Feb 3, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Possible trend change in the works making LL's and LH's. Rejection of the 20 and a strong close below .7100 S/R level. Boss and Big Boss are in agreement with the daily as well.
Craig on my feed she broke the the BEEB? or BEOB? I see a BEEB ....already and I am in short. I had to pinch myself because it was so obvious I got goose bumps. FYI I haven't changed my SR lines significantly since November last year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,764
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:53pm Feb 3, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting Donadoney
Craig on my feed she broke the the BEEB? or BEOB? I see a BEEB ....already and I am in short. I had to pinch myself because it was so obvious I got goose bumps. FYI I haven't changed my SR lines significantly since November last year.

I see it as an OB as it fully engulfs and closes beyond the previous candle.

Only worries are that the swing up to the 20 and .7100 was pretty small but i think we have a good chance here.
  • #9,765
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:37pm Feb 3, 2010 11:37pm
CrudeCraig

are you thinking about the .7150 area for your stop?
  • #9,766
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:08am Feb 4, 2010 12:08am
Quoting Lou
CrudeCraig

are you thinking about the .7150 area for your stop?
Yes Lou, i have mine at .7155 to be exact.
  • #9,767
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:06am Feb 4, 2010 1:06am
Quoting elitejets
I concur. I think this is to shake out the weak handed shorts before a move down.
My candles look nothing like yours, I like yours better
Hi Nicolahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to have you back!

I agree with you on the look of the candles on Strat's chart, mine looks even more different than Strat's and yours to yours. However when I consider stop runs I thought that the wicks would be even longer, on the other hand the number of candles with long wicks this is a warning.
I am waiting for NFP to sort this one out.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,768
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:15am Feb 4, 2010 1:15am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Possible trend change in the works making LL's and LH's. Rejection of the 20 and a strong close below .7100 S/R level. Boss and Big Boss are in agreement with the daily as well.
Hi CrudeCraighttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

With the unemployment data on the recieving end the NZD went downwards and the sell on the big BEOB looks very promising and the LH and LL look definitely like trend change. I would like Blackeagle opinion on this too he has a great ability to determine such a change.

I would love a move to around 0.6542.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,769
  • Edited 2:12am Feb 4, 2010 2:09am | Edited 2:12am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting CrudeCraig
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Possible trend change in the works making LL's and LH's. Rejection of the 20 and a strong close below .7100 S/R level. Boss and Big Boss are in agreement with the daily as well.
I am with you on this one Sir. Just got filled with break of BEEB (on my feed).

Here is my personal NZDUSD battle song of "formerly New Zealand's fourth most popular guitar-based digi-bongo acapella-rap-funk-comedy folk duo".

Inserted Video


Happy love making with the QUEEN!
  • #9,770
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:52am Feb 4, 2010 2:52am
Quoting pipfx
My stop loss at the worker 20 and minor R from a Dec 30 and 31st candle did not trigger, I got saved by my 5 pip buffer.

Today's candle shows a bond SS. It does show me that the buyers lack power to really drive this one up.

I will continue to leave my stop loss in place, due to today's high being right at the worker 20.

Cheers!
You are very lucky in a lot of ways.

Anything 5 pips above or below a set up bar will more often than not be triggered by Daily noise (long wicks). You must use double figures at least with 20 being a better number.

If you had spent thousands of hours practicing on your charts you would see that sometimes PRICE goes half way up the last exhaustion bar.

Irrespective of profit or break even, your SL should have been no lower than above the Feb 1st exhaustion bar.

I expect PRICE to go through a short term up cycle (wobble) - let's see how you handle that.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,771
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:59am Feb 4, 2010 2:59am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Looking to go short on the break of this BEOB.

Possible trend change in the works making LL's and LH's. Rejection of the 20 and a strong close below .7100 S/R level. Boss and Big Boss are in agreement with the daily as well.
Watch out for psycho 0.69
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,772
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:01am Feb 4, 2010 3:01am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I was in this short until today when my SL got taken out by the big bar! (didn't expect it to recover that fast after yesterdays bar either!)

I would'nt have normally taken this trade as it was CT but the daily closes lined up very well on MY chart so i was comfortable taking it as an ATM trade to first support.

I may have broke my rules on this?? (Not sure if it counts as IMO i just tried to adjust to the market) The initial plan was to take FULL profit at first support 1.2432 for me BUT yesterdays bar and the fact that the Aussies decided to...
BUT - you did not LOSE so you are still ahead of where you used to be.

Walking on water, Craig, walking on water - eat humble pie for the next 5 trades!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,773
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:03am Feb 4, 2010 3:03am
Quoting 30XTCi
Strat, I get the feeling they are setting up a bull trap here, I'd love to see 0.8660 taken out first. Time will tell, just my 2 cents.

Roy
Something's going on Roy, that's for sure and I'm not clever enough to know what so I will follow as usual.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,774
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:13am Feb 4, 2010 3:13am
Quoting PistolDave
------

[color=RoyalBlue]I may have broke my rules on this?? (Not sure if it counts as IMO i just tried to adjust to the market) The initial plan was to take FULL profit at first support 1.2432 for me BUT yesterdays bar and the fact that the Aussies decided to leave rates unchanged led me to think this could go further so i pulled in my SL and left the trade be.

[color=Black]Craig,

My opinion is that if you planned originally to take full profits at your target and you changed your plan in the middle of the trade then you made an error.

I...
Now, if your plan had included "I'm shooting for a target of ____, but if I see this price action I will do _______, and my plan changes" then that may be OK.

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO and just in case you don't get the message, NO!

The PLAN must be RIGID, SPECIFIC, IRREVOCABLE and WITHOUT QUESTION.

To do otherwise is providing food for your little people and triggering their hunger for YOUR control.

Accept and TRUST the PLAN and FOLLOW IT THROUGH WITHOUT QUESTION.

If you lose, you lose, so be it as you have already prepared yourself for it during your PLANNING.

If you understand and are applying PASR correctly with good MM, your winners (and profits) will far outnumber the losses.

Any losses are just the cost of doing business - accept them, get over them and MOVE ON!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,775
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:34am Feb 4, 2010 3:34am
Quoting strat
Call me Paranoid (Hello Paranoid!) over the big boys making stop runs but I thought on Feb 1st that was a stop run and now with today's bar, I'm even more convinced.

The big boys are clearing out for a big move up me thinks - if I'm right (or even if I'm wrong), this thing should take off after we clear the stop run highs at 0.8930.
I believe we're in risk aversion mode and I'm anticipating a continued down trend in the MEDIUM TERM.

BOSS Fundamentals are pointing downwards with USD and JPY strengthening against AUD, CAD, and NZD and to a lesser extent against EUR and GBP.

We could see AUDUSD hit 80 maybe even down to the 75-77 range, if it really builds up momentum. I think that level would also encourage risk taking again.

However to me, it looks like AUDUSD WORKER down trend is close to or at exhaustion. I'm looking for PA to either glide upwards a few days or to make a small break now below support and test it as a resistance before the big break downwards as my belief is that the BIG BOSS still needs a correction before it can continue upwards again.

So I'll be holding the line - Toto late 1970's ......

Hope you don't mind my "Strat-like" quote above.
-Razorjack
  • #9,776
  • Edited 5:36am Feb 4, 2010 3:47am | Edited 5:36am
When I accidently bumped into this thread few days ago I felt like if I was back in the Corps. An outfit with clear purpose and direction. The masters of the 7Ps - Proper Prior Planning Prevent Piss Poor Performance. This newbie expatriate living in Slovenia will read every posting in this priceless thread.

Thank you Strat! Thank you ff gang!

Question..I want to see every daily candle Strat sees but my Alpari candles are not same as his. Does anyone know which broker is feeding Strat's candles?
  • #9,777
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:46am Feb 4, 2010 4:46am
Quoting klobasa
Does anyone know the broker Strat uses?
sorry mate, this is a classified national security information. if we tell you, we have to kill you after
my chart (broker fxpro) is not like strat's so i will wait for a confirmation next days regarding the trend.
  • #9,778
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:47am Feb 4, 2010 6:47am
Quoting strat
Call me Paranoid (Hello Paranoid!) over the big boys making stop runs but I thought on Feb 1st that was a stop run and now with today's bar, I'm even more convinced.

The big boys are clearing out for a big move up me thinks - if I'm right (or even if I'm wrong), this thing should take off after we clear the stop run highs at 0.8930.
The way I see it, Jan close confirmed Nov as a swing high on the monthly, and we got a confirmed weekly swing high as well 2 weeks ago...

Feb 1st failed to close above the 100 ema and was never confirmed as a swing low on the daily. To me, everything on the AUD/USD screams a short which will prob go a long long way.
Yesterday was an IB and its low is broken today.. sure, there was the Dec swing low, but other than that I see no reason to go long, and many reasons to be short this one.
No way I'd be buying this baby. I am not that brave! http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5017/audusd.jpg
  • #9,779
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:25am Feb 4, 2010 7:25am
Quoting pr0spero
The way I see it, Jan close confirmed Nov as a swing high on the monthly, and we got a confirmed weekly swing high as well 2 weeks ago...

Feb 1st failed to close above the 100 ema and was never confirmed as a swing low on the daily. To me, everything on the AUD/USD screams a short which will prob go a long long way.
Yesterday was an IB and its low is broken today.. sure, there was the Dec swing low, but other than that I see no reason to go long, and many reasons to be short this one.
No way I'd be buying this baby. I am not that brave! http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5017/audusd.jpg...
AUDUSD BIG BOSS

Since those are all my rules, I cannot argue with them.

All I know is that we are at the Crossroads and I ain't going anywhere until I see the road the big boys take!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,780
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:05am Feb 4, 2010 8:05am
Time is near for Aussie to kneel too.
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