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AUD/USD

  • #15,421
  • Edited 1:44am Feb 4, 2010 1:43am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting BobbyBob
Ok, lets have a look at both sides for the time frame of 12+hrs (i don't scalp, only trade 1-3time a day and may hold for days)

Reasons for Short:
- Technically on the H4 chart its clearly on a down trend (may argue its at the bottom)
- Technically on the H1 charts it failed to reach the level pre- interest rate decision from TUE
- Technically on the Gold chart clear "decending triangles" on the H4 charts forming for the last 2 months
- Fundamentally - a failed RBA rate rise
- Fundamentally - Crappy retail data today
- Fundamentally -...
wow, your analysis is change my mind mate. ha3. thanks.
about the rumours of china selling out USD, where can i get the news?
  • #15,422
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:01am Feb 4, 2010 2:01am
Quoting yeri
wow, your analysis is change my mind mate. ha3. thanks.
about the rumours of china selling out USD, where can i get the news?
Rumours were from this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15396
I'm still taking it with a grain of salt, can't find it from original source yet

I wouldn't call my post "analysis" as such, more like stating some facts which people should have a look at themselves.
  • #15,423
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:42am Feb 4, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Clouds
Entered long at .7010
NU
Quoting egkid
Well ....GL bro I'm sure you have good reason on your view!!
Quoting egkid
Dont' try to pick up the bottom (Hope you didn't forgot that)I always see you as experience trader
Current price 0.6955, Still have the position open?
  • #15,424
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:04am Feb 4, 2010 4:04am
Jobless claims soon
  • #15,425
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:15am Feb 4, 2010 4:15am
Quoting Saxon
Jobless claims soon
How do you think this will affect the AUD ?
  • #15,426
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:23am Feb 4, 2010 4:23am
Quoting Daytrader74
How do you think this will affect the AUD ?
Not much. its released every week, no one really takes any notice of it, unless its wildly off prediction. But i still think that any *slightly* better then forcast news may give reason for the bears to keep pushing this pair down, but thats probably just me being bearish.
  • #15,427
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:27am Feb 4, 2010 4:27am
Quoting Daytrader74
How do you think this will affect the AUD ?
Well, we have a lot of fundies coming out today:
EUR IR Decision
USD Jobless
USD Non-Farm Prod
and a few other semi-important fundies. Since I didn't have the time to do any good research, I am placing orders above and below the bollinger squeeze/lull that should start soon. I am just looking for highs and lows to set my TP/SL and entries at right now. I think that there is just too much coming out today to place anything before the news. I don't know if your platform allows OCO orders but those are nice at times like these. My real only advice I have is not to be in before any news and set pendings around the consolidation. I am steping off the desk for a few hours to meet with clients then back here after the news.
  • #15,428
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:37am Feb 4, 2010 4:37am
Quoting BobbyBob
Ok, lets have a look at both sides for the time frame of 12+hrs (i don't scalp, only trade 1-3time a day and may hold for days)

Reasons for Short:
- Technically on the H4 chart its clearly on a down trend (may argue its at the bottom)
- Technically on the H1 charts it failed to reach the level pre- interest rate decision from TUE
- Technically on the Gold chart clear "decending triangles" on the H4 charts forming for the last 2 months
- Fundamentally - a failed RBA rate rise
- Fundamentally - Crappy retail data today
- Fundamentally - Better...
I respect your post my friend..
This is the correct way of thinking...

Good Luck
Let Price determine your future!
  • #15,429
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:47am Feb 4, 2010 4:47am
Why is this pair stuck between 0.8780 and 0.8808 for the last few hours ???
  • #15,430
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:49am Feb 4, 2010 4:49am
Quoting Daytrader74
Why is this pair stuck between 0.8780 and 0.8808 for the last few hours ???
Honestly speaking....I can see accumalation...dont quote me on it but now
I shall start building longs if this does not break on the news...

Currently I am seeing a dollar retracement and accumalation on Gold...

Once the news is over ...I will take my positions...for an overnight trade leading to NFP

Hope this makes sense
Let Price determine your future!
  • #15,431
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:50am Feb 4, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Daytrader74
Why is this pair stuck between 0.8780 and 0.8808 for the last few hours ???
That's a pretty triangle. Great floor too
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  • #15,432
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:52am Feb 4, 2010 4:52am
Quoting Saxon
That's a pretty triangle. Great floor too
And that mean ? lol
  • #15,433
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:59am Feb 4, 2010 4:59am
! only way is UP
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  • #15,434
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:59am Feb 4, 2010 4:59am
Quoting Daytrader74
And that mean ? lol
Na, it can just help to give some reason for the range in question. It has an outer and inner upper support. For me, I have been seeing prices hit the upper, but settle at the lower upper band. The floor has been a good resistance from swings for the last few days. I didn't give it too much thought but it might be somthing to consider. If it does swing/break, it might be from those lines and as the pressure builds in the triangle. But like I said, new might be the catalyst for this break. But I do agree with the statement someone made earlier about how a little good US new might give a good reason for the bears, but it might take a lot more US bad news to bring it up. That is why I am staying out. And I haven't had breakfast and my gallon of coffee yet so I am not thinking straight
  • #15,435
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:01am Feb 4, 2010 5:01am
may be...
Attached Images
  • #15,436
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:16am Feb 4, 2010 5:16am
News shortly...
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  • #15,437
  • Edited 5:35am Feb 4, 2010 5:20am | Edited 5:35am
If history were to teach us anything, The pair will be ranging for the next 24hrs till non-farm.

Lets cast our minds back to the last two releases to see what happened pre-news and also what happens when it hits a strong resistance or support

EDIT: News was pretty on par, nothing special, time to tryout some boring range trading tomorrow
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  • #15,438
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:36am Feb 4, 2010 5:36am
Well news came and gone and we still stuck in the same range !!
  • #15,439
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:47am Feb 4, 2010 5:47am
its so boring watching this pair at the moment I think I might go to bed...if anything happens can someone please wake me up!!
  • #15,440
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:52am Feb 4, 2010 5:52am
My triangle stated previously is holding pretty well.
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