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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #5,941
  • Feb 3, 2010 12:27pm Feb 3, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting Naynay
Grr... I'm just miffed that my stops were killed (or I entered too early).

If there was some way I could have avoided having my stops killed too early, I'd be all ears. I guess my stop was too tight... but I find it hard to understand why the price went so high above the 161 before the free-fall. What fib was sitting at 1.6070?

UPDATE: Ah, seems it retreated from a two week low of 1.6076
Naynay, I'm confused.

If you look at my chart and it looks like your Fib is the same, then the trade commenced at the -61.8 and finished at the 161.8 extension.

This is a text book Fib trade with price respecting the Fib every step of the way.
  • #5,942
  • Feb 3, 2010 1:52pm Feb 3, 2010 1:52pm
I using FxCompass method but with my own little twist.On Gbp/Usd I drew fibs on the last monthly candle but Im following it on the daily and I have removed all the inner fib lines. Lets see what happens!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rodneys Chart.JPG Size: 169 KB
  • #5,943
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:37pm Feb 3, 2010 3:37pm
Closed out trade with a 59 pip profit!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rodneys Chart.JPG Size: 120 KB
  • #5,944
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:04pm Feb 3, 2010 5:04pm
The Fed will be coming to you for funding at this rate!

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,945
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:27pm Feb 3, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Misterdaz
The Fed will be coming to you for funding at this rate!

MD.
Now that 's funny!!!!
  • #5,946
  • Feb 3, 2010 7:43pm Feb 3, 2010 7:43pm
thank you for sharing...i will tes it for my system trading
because i'm new still search a better system for my trading
  • #5,947
  • Feb 3, 2010 9:03pm Feb 3, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting FX Compass
Naynay, I'm confused.

If you look at my chart and it looks like your Fib is the same, then the trade commenced at the -61.8 and finished at the 161.8 extension.

This is a text book Fib trade with price respecting the Fib every step of the way.
I think you misunderstand what I did. I started a trade down from the 161.8 extension, but put a stop just behind the inital pierce of the 161.8 when the price moved down to the 138. Then the price flung back and went through the 161.8 on that spike you see on your chart, before flying all the way down.

What I don't understand is why the price wasn't satisfied by touching the 161.8 and had to pierce it all the way through to 1.6070
  • #5,948
  • Feb 3, 2010 9:31pm Feb 3, 2010 9:31pm
Just looking at where the opund might go today.
Lots of fib clusters up north, at the pivot, resistance2 and 3.

Meanwhile, down below, we have a 138 sitting out there in the open with a clustered support 3...

It seems like a reverse of yesterday's fibs. I suspect that the pivot cluster will be respected before heading down..... but this is just a wild guess.
What's everyone else's take on it?
Attached Image
  • #5,949
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:22pm Feb 3, 2010 10:22pm
Thanks to all of you that put in your input to my question yesterday...

Fxcompass, can you direct me to where I can read about your fib method everyone is talking about?

Thanks
R
  • #5,950
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:34pm Feb 3, 2010 10:34pm
Quoting Naynay
Just looking at where the opund might go today.
Lots of fib clusters up north, at the pivot, resistance2 and 3.

Meanwhile, down below, we have a 138 sitting out there in the open with a clustered support 3...

It seems like a reverse of yesterday's fibs. I suspect that the pivot cluster will be respected before heading down..... but this is just a wild guess.
What's everyone else's take on it?
I think it might move down towards 1.5805. That's my guess.

Cheers
Sk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0202 GU.JPG Size: 156 KB
  • #5,951
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:12pm Feb 3, 2010 11:12pm
I feel a bit more confirmed about the move down to the 138. I hear talk of selling between the clustered pivot at 1.5050 and 1.5070.

Looks like the best trade in the near term is to enter for a sell within those ranges and target the 138 fib below. In even shorter terms, looking at the consolidating price, we might want to trade the cable back up to the 1.5050

I will try this out on demo. No idea if this is the correct way to play it or not, but I have been nailing a few predictions of late, so I'll give it a swing.

This is interesting, how successive clustered pivots and fibs (as well as an unclustered 138) seem to dictate the pullback and direction of the currency for day trading. I wonder if this estimation holds up on other pairs.....?
  • #5,952
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:34pm Feb 3, 2010 11:34pm
Here is a short that I have been watching on GY all week...

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6477/2310a.gif

We may see a retracement to the 38.2 of the orange fib. Due to the fact that u can pull a nice fib off of this weeks low and swing. However on most my feeds it has not triggered yet, but if you pull the fib you will see the 138 is right at 38.2 retrace of orange fib.

R
  • #5,953
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:21am Feb 4, 2010 1:21am
Quoting Sirens
Thanks to all of you that put in your input to my question yesterday...

Fxcompass, can you direct me to where I can read about your fib method everyone is talking about?

Thanks
R
Sirens, click on FXCompass on any post, it will take you to my profile.
Then click on view posts.
You will see all of them there.
  • #5,954
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:24am Feb 4, 2010 1:24am
Quoting Naynay
I think you misunderstand what I did. I started a trade down from the 161.8 extension, but put a stop just behind the inital pierce of the 161.8 when the price moved down to the 138. Then the price flung back and went through the 161.8 on that spike you see on your chart, before flying all the way down.

What I don't understand is why the price wasn't satisfied by touching the 161.8 and had to pierce it all the way through to 1.6070

Naynay, be careful.

Just because price reaches a Fib extension level, doesn't mean it will automatically retrace. Sometimes it will consolidate and then keep going in the same direction.

When this occurs, you need to Fib other timeframes to see what is going on in their part of the story.
  • #5,955
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:25am Feb 4, 2010 1:25am
GBP has done a significant break of the previous daily low fib and returned. With pressure to the downside, I take it that this significant break is the cable signalling it's intention to *eventually* hit that floating 138 on the way down.... but this kind of indication ALSO seems to signal that it wants to significantly retrace first... and there is a GBP news event coming up in an hour or so. I wonder if we'll hit the 1.5950 by then... and after the news report... we may be heading all the way down again!

I'm riding the trade back up to the 1.5950 to find out, and it's jumped back a bit from the zero. I'm moved my stop to breakeven, so this trade can't be a loser now.....
Attached Image
  • #5,956
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:29am Feb 4, 2010 1:29am
Morning chaps. Watch out for the rate decision today, it will be no change but it's the QE the market will be looking for. There has been speculation the MPC wil extend QE further which is one of the reasons cable is already this low. If they do not do any we could see a rally in cable.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,957
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:10am Feb 4, 2010 2:10am
I pulled that trade when it was in profit. Looks like it would have hit breakeven if I had not.

Not trading anymore now. No idea where the price will go when the news hits.
  • #5,958
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:22am Feb 4, 2010 4:22am
Quoting RaptorUK
There is a school of thought, that I have heard from more than one source, that says that News does not change the direction that price was taking, it simply makes it get to where it was going quicker . . .

DYOR
For those that may be interested, one of these sources was Sam Seiden
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #5,959
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:58am Feb 4, 2010 5:58am
Quoting RaptorUK
For those that may be interested, one of these sources was Sam Seiden
Raptor, nice helmet. I am a disciple of Sams teachings and do not disagree. I vent my concerns for short term players who run tight stops thru major news events. They may well be right but they can get caught in the whip.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #5,960
  • Feb 4, 2010 6:06am Feb 4, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Misterdaz
I vent my concerns for short term players who run tight stops thru major news events. They may well be right but they can get caught in the whip.

MD.
Agree 100%. Helmet is rubbish . . . you should see the car Forti Corse F1 car

(I know you can't see much of it, just a few yellow bits)
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
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