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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #14,961
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:50am Feb 3, 2010 8:50am
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
I was not watching the market at the time but the price spike was just within 5 pips of the level line so I assume that the momentum of the move was sloooow and your judgement was that the momentum was in your favour for the short - short answer = expectancy
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #14,962
  • Feb 3, 2010 8:58am Feb 3, 2010 8:58am
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Hello FX,

At a guess, I think you held on because there is an FCR above the X point, which could potentially stop price from heading higher? you wanted to see how price reacted at that FCR before deciding to exit and switching to long?
  • #14,963
  • Feb 3, 2010 9:05am Feb 3, 2010 9:05am
Hi guys....
I would like to test my thinking process here with this quiz from the Master....

After a move up, price made a FCR1 to the downside, that once broken, began to hesitate a little bit to go down...

As far as it is a FCR1, and we are not risking more than 15 pips placing safetly our Stop Loss above the fractal. It worths give price some room to let it show his real colors...... and play the appropriate #2 move as our defensive play... I think it is all about Risk management here....
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  • #14,964
  • Feb 3, 2010 9:16am Feb 3, 2010 9:16am
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
As much as I would like to say yes I know - I don't. I only have hindsight to work with since I closed my long at 4010 and went to bed. I can look at the chart and the truth is - what I would do in the heat of price action is probably haved exited the short and taken the long at that time.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #14,965
  • Feb 3, 2010 9:34am Feb 3, 2010 9:34am
Quoting fxachilies
i hear you all.. i want everyone to be heard.. this is a important one.. so give your opinion.. don't shy away, thats how u grow..


i be back in couple of hours.. and I will give you guys a post to remember..


i just closed this for 55 big ones and 42 from earlier today.. thats is good enough to take her to a nice dinner... see you in a few..



ps) i will sure take note of who is participating and who not..
Hi Fx and all rock familie.
To your question:You didn't exit as you stick with your plan.That LV line is like wall and you just watch price on this level,basically price lost speed and you just watch that LV level as your stop loss was enough far from fire and you been ready kill that trade if that bar will be close abou LV level.
Anayway you did great job,you are tru champ!!!
  • #14,966
  • Edited 10:35am Feb 3, 2010 10:13am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
My answer is - reason, why you Fxa are in that trade still - is properly execution of Scenario 1, #1play.

So - when you are in the trade already, and it is not a fakeout - you place your SL 3-5 pips above Level (because it is short trade), and you are interesting - how the price will react to this particular Level.

You know, that price can be very deceiving, especially on the early stage of the trade. So - with knowing that you do not alow the market to deceive you, and just hold your trade, because what important is - is risk management..... More than anything else....

... and enough screen time and a lot of experience tell you, that in most situations the price reacts to the level, and goes again in your favor, even if PA looks like it wants to revers. This situations happen more than not.

Hope my answer is "on the money"....

Thank you!
  • #14,967
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:34am Feb 3, 2010 10:34am
Reason: FCR1 with #2 for protection. SL should have remained at 1.4021 until the first hurdle just before NY open was taken out.
Plus, the break above 1.4009 was weak, with no speed and enough time to watch it closely
  • #14,968
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:41am Feb 3, 2010 10:41am
I hope his dinner is a snappy McDonalds and not a 5 courser at a fancy restaurant...the suspense is killing me.

Hey Fx...don't even think about going for the brandy and cigar..lol!
  • #14,969
  • Feb 3, 2010 10:43am Feb 3, 2010 10:43am
My answer #1 scenario 1 watching how prices react to the LV line
Don't stop believing
  • #14,970
  • Feb 3, 2010 11:56am Feb 3, 2010 11:56am
Can anybody help me get to the post where Scenario is explained?
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
  • #14,971
  • Feb 3, 2010 12:07pm Feb 3, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting K7420
Can anybody help me get to the post where Scenario is explained?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11758
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #14,972
  • Feb 3, 2010 12:11pm Feb 3, 2010 12:11pm
Thanks that was quick.
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
  • #14,973
  • Feb 3, 2010 1:12pm Feb 3, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
My opinion: since price has broken down and moving around 16 points from level line, we are already playing #1. Therefore, since price apparently has not gone more than 5 pips above the level line (it was really tight, to be honest), you are still on the trade.

However, as I am a student and I am full of questions... I have one that arised the past days while talking to Dim. Thing is, yes, we are playing #1, but we have seen that a new FCR is later developed exactly at the level line, and even pierced. We are supposed -aren't we?- that we will not keep any trade once any new FCR on the opposite direction appears and it's broken, and that we will take that one long and will close all existing deals. This means that FCR, located at 4009.3 bid rate, based on my charts, will be activated at FCR + spread + 3, in my case say 4009.3 + 1.3 + 3 = 4013.6. High bid was 4013.3, which means assumming spread of 1.3, that the correspondent ask rate was 4016.3, which means... you should have been triggered, shouldn't you?

Was it a bit of luck, in the middle of an outstanding and proper #1 played and besides new FCR on the upside not activated?

Thanks.
  • #14,974
  • Feb 3, 2010 1:14pm Feb 3, 2010 1:14pm
I am still holding this short with a stop at 1.3930. Is anyone still in?
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You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #14,975
  • Feb 3, 2010 1:17pm Feb 3, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting coronajazz
I am still holding this short with a stop at 1.3930. Is anyone still in?
Hi Corona

I'm still in, stop at 1.3926 - could be a long night!
  • #14,976
  • Feb 3, 2010 2:08pm Feb 3, 2010 2:08pm
Hi everyone,
This is only a hindsight answer since work is keeping me away from the charts at the moment...reading everything!

FCR1 entry with defensive play #2.

But like I said, I wasn't in the trade so it would have been interesting how I would've reacted the second time it came at the LV and also breaking it. When I trade, I always put a hard stop at my max risk tolerance per trade and manually play the #2 and #G2+ defensive plays as they develop. I feel this way I can stay calm and play the correct defense most of the times if the mind doesn't play up....

If I did exit in this case, I would've been ready to play BB re-entry 1.3993 to catch most of the ride down.

This family is rocking!! Thanks FX and everyone else!












Quoting fxachilies
i hear you all.. i want everyone to be heard.. this is a important one.. so give your opinion.. don't shy away, thats how u grow..


i be back in couple of hours.. and I will give you guys a post to remember..


i just closed this for 55 big ones and 42 from earlier today.. thats is good enough to take her to a nice dinner... see you in a few..



ps) i will sure take note of who is participating and who not..
I follow THE PLAN to Survive & Preserve..
  • #14,977
  • Edited 3:18pm Feb 3, 2010 3:01pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting fxachilies
hi,
as you all see I am on the short runner from original entery.. now..

can anyone tell me the reason Fxa still is in the trade and did not exit and reverse at the X spot..

the answer is within the plan..


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
Ok, I will attempt to answer the question although I wasn't here when all the action happened (was away at work)

Looking at the chart, it looks like we have a SF, therefore #1 Play was used. We know that #1 play is a offensive/preserving strategy. With the SF, I believe Fxa would have placed his mental stop 5 pips behind the LV with the hard stop a little bit further back. So when the PA tested the 5 pips mental stop line, it wasn't a real threat and the line held. Fxa was willing to give the battle at the LV a good fight as a battle won there would have give him an early entry and with that put him in the driver's seat if it's the start of a good run, which meant that he would have more options opened to him as to how he can manage the trade. H e would have the choice of not entering in and out of other trades further down the line as his early entry gives him that advatage. So that also meant less risk involved (less trades).

As for why the fcr was ignored, I don't know what Fxa's thinking is about it but I would have have disregarded it as the trend was not an established one that was exhausting to take that fcr to the long side, where as the short trade was based on a fcr at the end of a run and showing signs of WB and WR and carries a greater reward to risk ratio.

I hope that answers Fxa's question. Am looking forward to his answer!

B.
  • #14,978
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:37pm Feb 3, 2010 3:37pm
Folks, just remember that Fxa would like the 1000th page dedicated to Feb, to thank him for everything he has done for us and to wish him well.
  • #14,979
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:50pm Feb 3, 2010 4:50pm
Hello,
Great job by most everyone to participate and sharing your knowledge within our frame of work here... it’s a beautiful thing.. Sorry for my late reply here but like I said i wanted everyone to get chance to be heard.
Now.......
Are u looking for a magic answer? a holy grail commentary by FXa? hehehhe... not even close...

My answer is very short... it’s called: INTUITION... that’s it.

At some point of your career as a trader if you’re lucky you will achieve that.. i am not fully there yet.. but i do get glimmers of it at times and its increasing by time..
but how?... this thing that called "intuition", is only a possibility if you stick with your gun for enough time that you learn and experience the every bit of it in the line of the daily battle, and learn to not just love it, but to even love the crust of the MFer... then you might have a chance or a real crack at this thing.

Now, you all see me preach to you.. Stick to the plan... that’s the reason for it. if i had not stick to my guns and switch from this to that, system to system often, I guarantee you i would not had made this great play today and other good plays that you have witnessed from me often.
So, my glued mentality to the plan, coming with many practices as well as mistakes, agonies, missing opportunities, only ending up with fake outs, and you name it.. has led me to where i can see the market and the price movements in a much clearer way and seas the opportunities and taking advantage of it by making slight audible to a valid signal.

I mean... check it out.. most of you gave all kinds of very valid scenarios and options.. there was a valid #1 exit there, before price really took off for a runner, than before that it formed a solid fcr for a long trade.. i concur 100%.. elizo for one was spot on this!!!.. but yet we got Nahrbart saying, it was all expectancy and momentum!! who cannot agree with that.. than we got, Jplo, saying fcr1, #2 play and risk managment babyyyyy, who cannot agree with that one either.. than we got Dimitri, saying it was all sc1 and experience, ohhhh babyyy again, how can you go wrong with that one too... and you got fxfighter saying it’s the level line play, how can you not agree with that solid play!!!.. and many other of you who gave very valid and smart points..

so you get my point!!!..

I... you... we... got all kinds of tools and options in this great thread at our disposal... to earn us to see and feel everything with our only naked eye at its purity.. which has been the sole purpose of this great thread.. and its all been build up to make us better into a intuitive trader that we and the whole world wish to achieve someday.

Folks.. you all know we got no system.. no strategy... nothing that we should worship about.. not even the Plan.. all we got is some basic tools, our eyes and heart, and some basic structures (the plan) that keeps a leash on us to stay in the right path.

I promised you guys I give you a post to remember… I hope I have full fill that… I know you were ready for it at this junction of our journey, thats why i put up the quiz.. and it's even proven to me more when I read your very thoughtful professional posts.. my hats off to you admirably.


Ok… now… u guys all know me... i never let u hanging there on what goes on in my head... if you really want some technically stuff from me on this particular play, i tell you that too..

First of all this was a fcr1 to go with a #2 play that my total risk on this was no more than 15pips..
then price dropped for 15pips from LV then tested the LV and had a weak resume.. I guess at that point i could have preserve for a few pips but u all know that’s not my style, to preserve much under 25pips inside the 1st hurdle.. than we got a 6pips break of the fcr and a solid long setup.. ok!!!.. but don't u think there is a reason i got a initial setup with a solid defensive play to go with it and sc1 to guide me through sc1 as well.
so at that point, i will rather give the best trade management possible on the task at hand (short trade) before making a quick ins and outs execution, and really focus analyses the fcr break at the level line to see if the break is for real.
Surely i did risk my sl to be hit for 15, and surely i would have missed a long runner opportunity.. and i have lost such opportunities in the past. other side of the coin would look like this: losing 15 pips and watching a runner go by for 80pips+ on the long side, me watching it all happen befor my eyes.

as a trader you live and die with your decisions.. so just like coping with your losing side of this game, that everyone being trained here for.. coping with your decision making its got to be in your agenda as well..
but my intuition and many many training has led me to feel such instances to know that i am better off to do what i did and in the long run be compensating for me in the give and take perspectives.
and it sure ain't very scientific, but hell, what is when you are faced with this beast.

I am sure if you all work as hard as you are, which is sticking to the plan, staying focus, blocking all negativities and keeping yourself on the correct path.. not only you will succeed in being text book plan, but also develop this sharp intuition along the way...
Now… that’s ladies and Gentlemen is a dangerous combo.. your ticket to financial freedom.


Well done everybody.. i enjoyed reading all your posts.. I see a lot of talents and rising stars.

Ok… we are reaching the 1000pg.. give your many thanks to the man that made all this possible to us..
I will frame this next two pages in gold and deliver it to my dear mentor and friend the one and only Feb.
  • #14,980
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:57pm Feb 3, 2010 4:57pm
test..
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