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AUD/USD

  • #15,241
  • Edited 3:06am Feb 3, 2010 2:52am | Edited 3:06am
Quoting Ducci
Any ideas, and BTW, I had my bottom on the dollar at 78.85. My next line on the dollar would send AUD into the Stratosphere, and it has been testing 78.85.
Thats my concern too if this goes any lower then its a definite trend change. I chart March futures and its been as low as 78.94 so far. 78.70 is the absolute lowest it can go for me before its trend change and we probably go back up for the next few weeks.
  • #15,242
  • Feb 3, 2010 2:57am Feb 3, 2010 2:57am
short @8900
  • #15,243
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:09am Feb 3, 2010 3:09am
Quoting sibajnok
short @8900
Why?? couldn't you wait until 0.8925 ??
  • #15,244
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:09am Feb 3, 2010 3:09am
Quoting amyc
Thats my concern too if this goes any lower then its a definite trend change. I chart March futures and its been as low as 78.94 so far. 78.935 is the absolute lowest it can go for me before its trend change and we probably go back up for the next few weeks.
I am actually charting the NYBOT Index $DXY, and it defintely broke that line. Now thank God I am not in trade right now so Patience's 5 year old comment doesn't apply to me yet although I have been called worse . I just don't feel comfortable taking a long with so many indicators showing something different if not at least a healthy retracement coming. I was hoping for another good 50 PIP short? These last candles defintely delayed my time line for a confirmation. I might go sleep for a couple of hours? We are definitely in an overbought situation right now with CCI at +214 right now.
  • #15,245
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:13am Feb 3, 2010 3:13am
Quoting Daytrader74
Why?? couldn't you wait until 0.8925 ??
I have to leave now. I didn't want to place an order, maybe it wouldn't be trigerred during I am away.

And, I like round numbers :]
  • #15,246
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:15am Feb 3, 2010 3:15am
Quoting sibajnok
I have to leave now. I didn't want to place an order, maybe it wouldn't be trigerred during I am away.

And, I like round numbers :]
Oh OK...good luck
  • #15,247
  • Feb 3, 2010 3:22am Feb 3, 2010 3:22am
Quoting Patience
You're the pro who knows where the market is going to go. What are you asking me for?

And it was the words of Master Jacko that I was referencing. You showed a chart in an uptrend and asked if it was going down - it just reminded me of his post about showing a chart to a 5 year old. You should take some time to read his words of wisdom. It's a very good thread.
Hi Patience,

Could you please attach FXCM sentiment index and your analysis on AUDUSD?

Thanks
  • #15,248
  • Edited 6:27am Feb 3, 2010 4:15am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting puks
Hi Patience,

Could you please attach FXCM sentiment index and your analysis on AUDUSD?

Thanks
Hey Puks - unlike some people on this thread, I can't say with any certainty where the market is going to go. The days that I do that, it always bites me in the arse. But I can show you what my charts are saying.

1 hour USDX has found support at 200 MA and RSI is oversold. We could get a pullback or we could range in a tight range thus easing the oversold status. 4 hour USDX could run further once the 1 hour has eased it's oversold status. I don't know if you saw my posts last night but COT was suggesting that EUR could do a short squeeze and I also posted a daily AUD chart showing hidden bullish divergence.

Being NFP, they could be pumping to dump. I posted FXCM's sentiment in Shahab's thread last night. It suggests more US$ gains given placement of traders but this should only be used in conjunction with your charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-1hour-3feb.jpg Size: 145 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-4hour-3feb.jpg Size: 159 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #15,249
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:17am Feb 3, 2010 4:17am
Took short on NZDUSD at .7134 with a TP of .7119 for 2 lots. Getting close on AUDUSD.
  • #15,250
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:24am Feb 3, 2010 4:24am
Quoting Ducci
Took short on NZDUSD at .7134 with a TP of .7119 for 2 lots. Getting close on AUDUSD.
And your reasoning behind this trade is ?
  • #15,251
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:33am Feb 3, 2010 4:33am
Quoting Daytrader74
And your reasoning behind this trade is ?
Let me see if I can get this damn thing to post a chart, but give me a minute about to take a short on AUD USD. I will post both charts.
  • #15,252
  • Feb 3, 2010 4:56am Feb 3, 2010 4:56am
Quoting Daytrader74
And your reasoning behind this trade is ?
Okay I apologize for the colors, I use a black background, and when I print in PDF, it makes it white for some reason? I also put a vertical line through my chart and two indicators. Anyway, what you are looking at as to my reasoning is for 4 main areas.

1. CCI went past +200-very overbought, and is coming back to cross over +100 good trend entry with NZD, it will linger waiting for AUD so sometimes you have to enter a little earlier on NZD
2. At the bottom if you can see that red bar which is a histograph indicating that Ketner is inside of Bollingerbands indicating a coil, which is a strong indication of a reversal.
3. The Dollar index is showing way oversold going past -245 and just now making a cross indicating a trend reversal.
4. Up on my candles, you can see that red solid line that looks like an SMA, it is a Linear Regression indicator, and NZD broke through that line on the 15 minute chart also signifying a trend reversal.

My exit is based on my closest line that marches my Fib Extension Lines that I ran.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf NZDUSDCHART.pdf   11 KB | 247 downloads
  • #15,253
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:02am Feb 3, 2010 5:02am
Quoting Daytrader74
And your reasoning behind this trade is ?
Ok took short on AUDUSD at .8992 with a TP of .8857.
  • #15,254
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:03am Feb 3, 2010 5:03am
Quoting Ducci
Ok took short on AUDUSD at .8992 with a TP of .8857.
Sorry that should have said .8892 (wishful thinking )
  • #15,255
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:09am Feb 3, 2010 5:09am
Here is my very first post:

shorted NZD @ 0.7130 with SL @ 0.7170
shorted AUD @ 0.8910 with SL @ 0.8970

I can't attach screenshots yet so in a few words:

NZD is stuck in a range between 0.7000 and 0.7135 and offered me a shooting star on 1HR chart right at this resistance. On 4HR chart the same pattern has been forming after the nice rise since the beginning of this week.

AUD similar story, a range between 0.8790 and 0.8910 plus the shooting star formed right at the matching point of this resistance and the bear trend line since 18th of Jan.

A few pips profit at the moment of writing I will see what's gonna happen overnight. I am going to bed now as it is midnight here in NZ...
  • #15,256
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:10am Feb 3, 2010 5:10am
Quoting Ducci
Let me see if I can get this damn thing to post a chart, but give me a minute about to take a short on AUD USD. I will post both charts.
Here is my AUDUSD chart, and my Dollar Index Chart, which you will see long trend indicators.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AUDUSD.pdf   12 KB | 284 downloads
File Type: pdf Dollar Index Chart.pdf   18 KB | 345 downloads
  • #15,257
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:15am Feb 3, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Ducci
Sorry that should have said .8892 (wishful thinking )
And I decided to go with another line at .8872 as my TP on this one just not sure how far this will fall if it does at all for that matter. I entered just a tad early, but I should live through it maybe
  • #15,258
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:21am Feb 3, 2010 5:21am
Quoting Ducci
And I decided to go with another line at .8872 as my TP on this one just not sure how far this will fall if it does at all for that matter. I entered just a tad early, but I should live through it maybe
I'm waiting to enter a short @0.8925
  • #15,259
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:36am Feb 3, 2010 5:36am
I have question to ask of good traders here, I had a limit buy order at 8915 on the aud/usd. My broker charts and broker tables show the high was 8915. Why was my order filled, if there is a 2 pip spread? Or have the brokers taken advantage of me
  • #15,260
  • Feb 3, 2010 5:37am Feb 3, 2010 5:37am
Quoting Daytrader74
I'm waiting to enter a short @0.8925
Well then, you made me show you my chart, let's see your reasons. I defintely can see this pull back on me and go your direction since I didn't wait quite long enough to get an absolute indicator. Worse case scenario, I can live with .8925 as an SL, but I just don't want to. I will probably add a lot on both trades if that happens.
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