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AUD/USD

  • #15,201
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:23pm Feb 2, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting Patience
I thought you had long-term shorts. Can you hedge or are you not holding shorts anymore? It always seems to take more time when it comes to my trades - lol

Thank goodness they didn't raise last night because I had some shorts at 0.8840 that I thankfully closed out at 0.8800 when I got up this morning. Was thinking that I might have to sit on them for a few days paying that awful swap
no, i ended up closing my shorts a couple times, only to re-open. now they are closed, and will try keep these open till i change positions. i'm short usd, and short yen for a basket of pairs right now.
  • #15,202
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:26pm Feb 2, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting tradoholic
Fundamentally speaking, the US has nothing going for it in the immediate future.
Well, ****, maybe i should just give up.
  • #15,203
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:28pm Feb 2, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting Patience
I think Jacko's 5 year old would disagree with you.

Firstly, how do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY...
Thank you for an informative post...petty I don't have a 5 year old around that I could show it to lol
  • #15,204
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:30pm Feb 2, 2010 6:30pm
oh ma ma mia
  • #15,205
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:32pm Feb 2, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting Clouds
no, i ended up closing my shorts a couple times, only to re-open. now they are closed, and will try keep these open till i change positions. i'm short usd, and short yen for a basket of pairs right now.
I do think that there is a general nervousness in the market and any little thing that the market doesn't like, it seems that risk aversion is quick to take hold. Dubai, Greece, China Bubble, Obama's speech on banking etc etc. But while risk is on, I'm not looking to place any shorts.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #15,206
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:35pm Feb 2, 2010 6:35pm
think it will hit .8910 then have a fall to mid .8850 area
15min chart all though still def in a down trend
  • #15,207
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:39pm Feb 2, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting tradoholic
On technical analysis, my charts indicate a bottom of 9950 in the Dow ( next leg down), and lower in the one after. This should bring the AUD down to .76 or so within the next 4-6 weeks. This is just my take and I stand to be corrected.
I am looking at a similar technical correction for the indicies, S&P should touch 1026 this quarter, then lower over the next few months, 970 is a number I am interested in. I think the down trend will resume in either Wednesday or Thursdays trading.

I would be suprised to see the aud back up at 93 again in the next few months.
  • #15,208
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:40pm Feb 2, 2010 6:40pm
shorting at 9300-9280 in 1-2 weeks
Attached Image
  • #15,209
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:40pm Feb 2, 2010 6:40pm
AUD is gunnin for the 200SMA on the 30 min chart at .8898. if it gets beyond that, the next stop looks like the neckline of the double bottom, which if successful could project us to .8960, IMO...
  • #15,210
  • Feb 2, 2010 6:48pm Feb 2, 2010 6:48pm
my worries
Attached Image
  • #15,211
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:05pm Feb 2, 2010 7:05pm
Risk off? Lol.
  • #15,212
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:14pm Feb 2, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting amyc
I am looking at a similar technical correction for the indicies, S&P should touch 1026 this quarter, then lower over the next few months, 970 is a number I am interested in. I think the down trend will resume in either Wednesday or Thursdays trading.

I would be suprised to see the aud back up at 93 again in the next few months.
I am wih you there. Interestingly, the astrological retrogate that initiated the downside push of dow on 15th Jan, continues to 15th June, peaking in April end - beg May. So if this is correct, then Gold and Dow will continue downsie run till then. Sofar it has been accurate with a 13 day cycle two day correction. Lets see if it turns around again tonight.
I am holding shorts in Dow, and just went short in ASX200 and Gold. Lets see.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,213
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:26pm Feb 2, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting tradoholic
I am wih you there. Interestingly, the astrological retrogate that initiated the downside push of dow on 15th Jan, continues to 15th June, peaking in April end - beg May. So if this is correct, then Gold and Dow will continue downsie run till then. Sofar it has been accurate with a 13 day cycle two day correction. Lets see if it turns around again tonight.
I am holding shorts in Dow, and just went short in ASX200 and Gold. Lets see.
Dow looks perfect for shorting to me as well, but i am not convinced that the S&P won't try to move slightly higher before resuming the down move, thats why I'm not sure if any down move will take place tonight or tomorrow.
I think the ECB's decision about Greece is tonight as well so that could provide a catalyst to get it moving again.
  • #15,214
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:29pm Feb 2, 2010 7:29pm
Quoting tradoholic
I am wih you there. Interestingly, the astrological retrogate that initiated the downside push of dow on 15th Jan, continues to 15th June, peaking in April end - beg May. So if this is correct, then Gold and Dow will continue downsie run till then. Sofar it has been accurate with a 13 day cycle two day correction. Lets see if it turns around again tonight.
I am holding shorts in Dow, and just went short in ASX200 and Gold. Lets see.

June is a long way off. My ideal scenario is down to around 970 then back up to 1200 and beyond by late in the year, but if its still going down by June then it should be well past 970 by then. Are you looking for a double bottom type scenario?
  • #15,215
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:37pm Feb 2, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting amyc
June is a long way off. My ideal scenario is down to around 970 then back up to 1200 and beyond by late in the year, but if its still going down by June then it should be well past 970 by then. Are you looking for a double bottom type scenario?
If you look at the 12 month chart of Dow, The rate of rise is quite steep. I have applied BARR theory to both AUD and Dow, and they seem to be following the pattern. Going with that we are looking at a 30% drop from 10750 which gives us double bottom. But I am not aiming at that, anywhere near 9000 is good for me as I have loaded up my shorts.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #15,216
  • Feb 2, 2010 7:56pm Feb 2, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting Ducci
I am trying something a little different this time with a lower TP on two pairs, but I needed a little higher SL then usual. I had a stronger indication on the NZDUSD for a short now, but it will drag along waiting for AUDUSD, which I think is close just might channel for 30 minutes to an hour. I basically took a short on 2 lots AUSUSD at .8868 with a TP of .88555(12.5 PIP's), and a short on 2 lots of NZDUSD at .7128 with a TP of .71155. Basically my SL amounts to $500 on this trade. I am hoping to hit 12.5 PIP's each on this trade, which makes...
I already cashed in on easy 25 PIPs on both of these pairs, and the real short is just about to hit. Don't know about anyone else's indications, but here are three reasons that we go down.

1. Time Series Forecast-Same as Linear Regression, Breaking line as we speak on 60 Minute chart.
2. CCI-Screaming Downtrend on 60 Minute Chart.
3. We have a coiled spring forming where Ketner is inside of the Bollinger Bands.
  • #15,217
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:10pm Feb 2, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting Clouds
shorting at 9300-9280 in 1-2 weeks
Attachment

Looks like a very nice head and shoulders pattern!?!?!?!
  • #15,218
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:12pm Feb 2, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting Ducci
I already cashed in on easy 25 PIPs on both of these pairs, and the real short is just about to hit. Don't know about anyone else's indications, but here are three reasons that we go down.

1. Time Series Forecast-Same as Linear Regression, Breaking line as we speak on 60 Minute chart.
2. CCI-Screaming Downtrend on 60 Minute Chart.
3. We have a coiled spring forming where Ketner is inside of the Bollinger Bands.
another test of .88? i think so.
  • #15,219
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:30pm Feb 2, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Clouds
another test of .88? i think so.
I went back in on AUDUSD only this time at .8855 with a TP of .8826. Really, I thought pretty hard about setting it at .8800. Now I use Heikin Ashi Charts, and so I reserve the right to TP sooner if I get a any green on my 15 min chart. At this angle, I should not see any until it is truly reversing.
  • #15,220
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:32pm Feb 2, 2010 8:32pm
Hi All,

It would seem that the major players that stepped in with unlimited buying capacity - that absorbed all the volume being poured into the markets the other day - distributed their purchases in the upward price correction that would seem to have ended at or about .8880.

Once they resold at higher prices the inventory they accumulated from the large sell off, the buyers were locked in and they began to bring price down.

From a chart perspective, these actions lined up with the upper trend line of the downward channel.

This not a forecast of where price is going, but rather information to learn how it all began.

Take care,
BR
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