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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,881
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:22am Feb 2, 2010 10:22am
Quoting EntropyLad
Damn! EUR/NZD is not giving me too much of a breathing room. The GAP from yesterday too due to the AUD shock rate announcement. Play at your own risk.

DAILY and H4 chart below.
That trend right now looks like a wild horse, I think I will stay away from that one for the moment....

--NM
  • #2,882
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:28am Feb 2, 2010 10:28am
The EU 4 hour looks good but the weekly support is pretty close by...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.png Size: 45 KB
  • #2,883
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:47am Feb 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting NightMoves
That trend right now looks like a wild horse, I think I will stay away from that one for the moment....

--NM
I understand. Anyways, i did something similar to what CHRISP did here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2721

After the BPC formation low has been breached at 1.9620(which is where your typical entry is suppose to be), i waited for a pullback towards the 1.9650 for entry at 1.9645. Essentially, i decided to copy chrisP on this trade. If eur/nzd reaches the target price of 1.9510, that will give me roughly a 1: 1.5 risk/reward.
  • #2,884
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:53am Feb 2, 2010 10:53am
Quoting EntropyLad
I understand. Anyways, i did something similar to what CHRISP did here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2721

After the BPC formation low has been breached at 1.9620(which is where your typical entry is suppose to be), i waited for a pullback towards the 1.9650 for entry at 1.9645. Essentially, i decided to copy chrisP on this trade. If eur/nzd reaches the target price of 1.9510, that will give me roughly a 1: 1.5 risk/reward.
Totally makes sense, chris's post also had a nice 1-2-3 that would have worked pretty well too. But I see where your coming from.

--NM
  • #2,885
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:54am Feb 2, 2010 10:54am
Quoting NightMoves
The EU 4 hour looks good but the weekly support is pretty close by...

--NM

Hmmm...Interesting...actually, i see a H4, slanted trendline collapse with SETUP chart at M30, Trigger chart at m5. I didnt get in though. i missed it. The trade was triggered at 9am london time. Anyways, i am curious to see if it will reach the projected price target of 1.3966.

On m5, eur/usd is a very UGLY MESS.
  • #2,886
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:12am Feb 2, 2010 11:12am
Quoting EntropyLad
Yeah, the USDSGD. It did setup nicely, smooth setup, nice, 1, 2, 3 formation, 3sma, etc, bpc. Except that the AUD news forced a severe gap, making entry impossible. I have attached the chart below.
Ah ok, I thought you were looking at the 4h chart before. My broker doesn't show quite such a gap as yours, but yes the news did spike that one through. There was an opportunity to take a long position based on the tweezer bars which retested the support. Not as good r:r as waiting for a bpc of the trendline, but a good indicator that price wanted to go up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsgd 1h 020210.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #2,887
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:13am Feb 2, 2010 11:13am
Quoting EntropyLad
Hmmm...Interesting...actually, i see a H4, slanted trendline collapse with SETUP chart at M30, Trigger chart at m5. I didnt get in though. i missed it. The trade was triggered at 9am london time. Anyways, i am curious to see if it will reach the projected price target of 1.3966.

On m5, eur/usd is a very UGLY MESS.
LOL, everything on the M5 is a mess...

--NM
  • #2,888
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:13am Feb 2, 2010 11:13am
Quoting EntropyLad
Rules are rules. I stick to 7am to 9am. Rules are rules. I cannot tell you how many times i have seen breakouts before that time frame, but i dont take them. Why? Because i have seen many other cases where there is that breakout before 7am, only to reverse strongly at 7am or 8am london time and head in the opposite direction. And i dont take LOB trades anytime less than 2hrs before a red-labeled news. That is why i passed on a LOB trade in GBP/CAD yesterday. Rules are there for a reason, and there are meant to be followed. There is always another...
I've not looked at LOB trades for a long time, but I like your take on them. Something to add back into the research list...
  • #2,889
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:17am Feb 2, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Chris P
I've not looked at LOB trades for a long time, but I like your take on them. Something to add back into the research list...
I have noted the "London Momentum" since April/May 2009 - but being a completely new trader, I did not know what to do with it.

In the last 2weeks with the LOB strat, I think a couple of puzzle pieces have come together on this for me.

Agree - rules are rules...
  • #2,890
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:20am Feb 2, 2010 11:20am
Quoting EntropyLad
I understand. Anyways, i did something similar to what CHRISP did here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2721

After the BPC formation low has been breached at 1.9620(which is where your typical entry is suppose to be), i waited for a pullback towards the 1.9650 for entry at 1.9645. Essentially, i decided to copy chrisP on this trade. If eur/nzd reaches the target price of 1.9510, that will give me roughly a 1: 1.5 risk/reward.
Here's another way you could have played this one. Again, we in essence have a 1,2,3 formation. Price then breaks the trendline and the 2 of the formation. Rather than enter here, if we fib out the move down, the 50% and retracement trendline line up perfectly. Opportunity for a touch trade?

I didn't see this at the time, but it shows that this sort of thing works again and again.

Nice trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 4h 020210.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #2,891
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:25am Feb 2, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Chris P
Here's another way you could have played this one. Again, we in essence have a 1,2,3 formation. Price then breaks the trendline and the 2 of the formation. Rather than enter here, if we fib out the move down, the 50% and retracement trendline line up perfectly. Opportunity for a touch trade?

I didn't see this at the time, but it shows that this sort of thing works again and again.

Nice trading
Yes it keeps ticking, those are the best patterns I think, they give you a very nice heads up that things are about to change, as long as they happen around S/R levels they are very accurate.

--NM
  • #2,892
  • Edited 11:38am Feb 2, 2010 11:26am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting Chris P
Here's another way you could have played this one. Again, we in essence have a 1,2,3 formation. Price then breaks the trendline and the 2 of the formation. Rather than enter here, if we fib out the move down, the 50% and retracement trendline line up perfectly. Opportunity for a touch trade?

I didn't see this at the time, but it shows that this sort of thing works again and again.

Nice trading

Thanks, chris. I keep learning things or being reminded of things i already forgot. I noticed that entry pattern...but i didnt take it because of AUD interest rate announcement. Like i said here a while ago(check link below), AUD red-labeled news affect NZD.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2545

And true to form, the AUD interest rate shocker caused a GAP on the 1HR or 15mins for most of the NZD or AUD pairs/crosses on my trading platform.

I respect the news. particularly the interest rate news. that said, that was a very valid setup/point you are making.

BESIDES, I LIKE TRIPLE TOP FORMATIONS:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264360442

UPDATE: i JUST RECHECKED WHAT YOU WROTE AND THE CHART AGAIN, CHRIS. Your entry would have come 4hrs after the news release, more or less, at 1.9695. Just as the spinning top was formed at that 38%, 50% FIB level you posted above. So, yeah, it is PERFECT. My entry at 1.9645 was barely 1hr15mins ago.
  • #2,893
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:39am Feb 2, 2010 11:39am
Quoting NightMoves
Yes it keeps ticking, those are the best patterns I think, they give you a very nice heads up that things are about to change, as long as they happen around S/R levels they are very accurate.

--NM
Me love candlesticks longtime!
  • #2,894
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:43am Feb 2, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Chris P
Here's another way you could have played this one. Again, we in essence have a 1,2,3 formation. Price then breaks the trendline and the 2 of the formation. Rather than enter here, if we fib out the move down, the 50% and retracement trendline line up perfectly. Opportunity for a touch trade?

I didn't see this at the time, but it shows that this sort of thing works again and again.

Nice trading
CHRIS,
I am curious, where would you have your SL in such a trade? 1.9855 area? or a more aggressive 1.9805 area? If so, why?
  • #2,895
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:49am Feb 2, 2010 11:49am
Quoting NightMoves
LOL, everything on the M5 is a mess...

--NM

Nightmoves,

Guess what? As per our post here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2887

EUR/USD just reached the projected price target of 1.3966.

weeee!!!
  • #2,896
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:58am Feb 2, 2010 11:58am
Quoting NightMoves
I was thinking that same thing, I only have one Beach House, I dont have a Brazilian of them, I would not know where to put that many of them....

--NM
Just read this for the first time. LMAO. Hehehe. Well, i would like to have a brazilian(giselle) in one of them. That is my goal.
  • #2,897
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:59am Feb 2, 2010 11:59am
Quoting EntropyLad
Thanks, chris. I keep learning things or being reminded of things i already forgot. I noticed that entry pattern...but i didnt take it because of AUD interest rate announcement. Like i said here a while ago(check link below), AUD red-labeled news affect NZD.
You're reminding me of things I'd forgotten too! It's good to keep involved at FF, helps keep the pencil and mind sharp.

I totally agree with your news sentiment. I wouldn't touch a currency if it's rate announcement is due. I was also asleep when this patern unfolded. Can't catch all the winners!

Best,
Chris
  • #2,898
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:38pm Feb 2, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting NightMoves
Yes it keeps ticking, those are the best patterns I think, they give you a very nice heads up that things are about to change, as long as they happen around S/R levels they are very accurate.

--NM
Yep, if they're formed moving away from support/resistance then they have a lot more meaning behind them. Here, EURNZD is moving away from 2.0000, so it gave a higher probability as to where price wanted to go. It's always about location. Better to have a Brazilian confluences than just one or two

Best,
Chris
  • #2,899
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:47pm Feb 2, 2010 8:47pm
Quoting EntropyLad
I understand. Anyways, i did something similar to what CHRISP did here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2721

After the BPC formation low has been breached at 1.9620(which is where your typical entry is suppose to be), i waited for a pullback towards the 1.9650 for entry at 1.9645. Essentially, i decided to copy chrisP on this trade. If eur/nzd reaches the target price of 1.9510, that will give me roughly a 1: 1.5 risk/reward.
Oh well, closed out of EUR/NZD when it moves back to 1.9640. made only +5 pips there, which sucks because it went to a low of 1.9560. which means i was +85 pips at one time. Obviously, my money management needs more work. Strange, i wasnt expecting such strong S/R action from 1.9550 level. Oh well. I also closed out the GBP/CAD short from 1.6950. First profit was +20pips, second profit = +50pips. price action just zig zagging all over the place without direction.

Let us see what LOB brings.
  • #2,900
  • Feb 3, 2010 1:19am Feb 3, 2010 1:19am
eyeing a few eur/*** setups, waiting on PA to deliver b-p-c's
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