Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

good, I'm looking at EURUSD development, I think we might get our Long entry at 1.3750 by tomorrow or Wend , that will be an exciting trade!!
of course if it dosent escape from our hand right now!!!

that indicator is perfect for hedging and un-hedging, just follow the trend and arrows to get in and get out till you clear everything, I prefer to use 1Hr as I cant watch the market every minute

Yeah, I know you did, I'm just a

I'm not really liking this PA. With US futures green and gold going up. If it doesn't start going down soon, my Jurik charts are going to start turning back up.

Nice Long AUDJPY you have!!!! is it +150 pips till now or what?
gold didnt surprise me at all, with those patterns and strong S line I expected that to happen.
I still think we need another push lower for kiwi and assuie and loonie till make me satisfied for this week, beside I'm waiting for my Long EURUSD order to get filled at .13750.

Cool Thread. Very interesting.

Patience, I wonder if you like to post your fxcm sentiment repot here,whenever you feel like it thought, that's very relevant to this thread.

Unfortunately I only had a small buy waiting at 0.7920 on A/J (daily 200 MA). I didn't go all in because I have quite a few positions higher up and I wasn't sure if market meltdown was going to come to fruition. What a difference a day makes. Caught looking the wrong way

My 4 hour Jurik charts have now turned up on A/U and A/J (the alert box gives me a heads up before the RSX goes green on the chart). I've got a couple of short positions around 0.8840. I guess I was thinking (but more like hoping) it was going to head down to S2 at 0.8746. I'd still like to see a test of 200 MA on daily - might have to wait a little longer than I thought though. Let's see what the RBA dish up. EUR still struggling.

[EDIT] The Jurik indicators are courtesy of Godfrey on FF. Thanks Godfrey!

Nice call on Gold as well. I see Soros is calling it bubble territory and then I read another article from some bloke on Seeking Alpha saying that Soros is probably buying.

[EDIT] Sure, I'll post the sentiment index. Do you want me to post the full monty with pie/bar charts and run-down of all the currencies?

whatever you feel it , do it that way.
btw, where did you read about Soros activities?

I saw him being interviewed on Bloomberg (on the box) in Davos but here is his interview.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/busi...imate_bub.html

And this was the article on Seeking Alpha saying that he was probably buying - lol. Looks like he was today!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1854...uying-gold-now

[EDIT] Forgot to say that the Jurik indicators were courtesy of Godfrey on FF. Thanks Godfrey!

Shahab, FXCM haven't posted the sentiment index for this evening. It's usually posted before 8.00 pm so I guess they've been a little busy today. Saw this on their newsfeed:



The sharp pickup in speculative net-positioning (as seen through the COT report) suggests that the EURUSD may bottom through near-term trade. Yet the overall reversal favors continued losses after a potential short-term bounce.

http://twitpic.com/10wy8u

I've now had daily RSX cross-ups indicating buy possibilities on NZD/USD, AUD/JPY and Gold AUD/USD hasn't quite crossed up yet. Nice pin bar on daily Cable as well.

Good morning - nice 90 pip 5 minute candle on AUD Missed all the action because announcement was 3.30 am in London. Out of my AUD shorts at 0.8800. Done it's daily ATR. Looks like Soros is still buying gold though

SSI: AUDUSD Ratio Flips, Shorts Slip 15% as Retail Bears Take Profit
Tuesday, 02 Feb 2010 10:24 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:





SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 17.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 19.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 9.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 6.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.8% higher than yesterday and 21.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.78 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 4.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.7% weaker than yesterday and 11.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 5.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.63 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 16.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.8% weaker than yesterday and 4.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.9% higher than yesterday and 30.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.5% lower than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.24 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 2.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.9% higher than yesterday and 48.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 6.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Daily Market Strategy attached. Good trades.

I did well short on AUD/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=168
It was indeed possible to profit from being both bullish EUR/USD and simultaneously bearish AUD/USD
I hope you backed at least one of your own calls shahab8b

Thanks for the SSI patience, much appreciated

G'day patience,
so you missed all those actions, I loaded 3 short below the weekly pivot at .8915 before the announcement , but close them all at .8845 with +70 pips, I missed the rest of action.
about Soros you are right, this guy just moves the market by his talk to get better entry for himself, I rememebr last year in January 09 he said he stopped selling GBP then the market moved 500 pips in 2 days and again headed to a new low, that time I said this guy had a plan to short GBP for the last time!!! no wonder he is a trading legend!!!

btw, thanx for the SSI & report , very useful as always

G'day M.A.C.Doug,
It's great that most of us were short AUDUSD before that announcement, I did well due to my shorts just before announcment.
I was looking at the charts and COT index and get that conclusion on Sat that we can be bullish EUR and bearish AUD at the same time,
Aussie short went well according to the plan but my Long EURUSD could get filled - I thought 1.3750 is the bottom- ab=cd might be completed now but I dont want to buy EUR at this level.
btw ,please feel free to post your idea or charts here, we can learn alot from your vast experience.

Wow! that book is lopsided bigtime. Looks everyone is on the same side - long. That can't be good for them. Thanks for the info, Patience.

Nice one. Looks like everyone was in the I was a litte surprised at Soros' comments on gold given John Paulson's latest venture http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...428787876.html but maybe it was just to get in at a better price

Looks like the NFP malaise has come over the market early this week. Apart from the RBA last night, PA seems to have died in most pairs. Scalpers paradise.

Hey Leche Mocha, been playing any gaps lately?? Lol

Not much change to the sentiment index from this morning but have posted it anyway. Good trades.

SSI: Retail Traders Step in to Immediately Fight USDCHF Range Reversal
Tuesday, 02 Feb 2010 18:46 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 8.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 29.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 11.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 22.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.0% stronger than yesterday and 1.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.5% higher than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.7% higher than yesterday and 26.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.6% stronger than yesterday and 13.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.04 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.78 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 1.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.6% stronger than yesterday and 19.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 7.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 2.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.8% weaker than yesterday and 4.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.63 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.1% lower than yesterday and 12.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.1% higher than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.9% weaker than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.4% higher than yesterday and 17.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.6% lower than yesterday and 11.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.9% weaker than yesterday and 4.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.24 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.9% higher than yesterday and 60.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

HI Patience,

I read this post and considering it went all the way up to .8915, I am suspecting it had finished its bull run and now ready to go down south. I am, more likely hoping it to see 87xx level to clear my open positions which I took from .8810.

When did you enter at 0.8810? After the RBA announcement? Did you take note of the daily ATR? I got out of my shorts because it had done it's daily ATR. I know that it could have continued downward and exceeded it's daily ATR but with risk on and gold going up, I wasn't going to look a gift horse in the mouth so I closed them thinking I could re-enter higher up once the dust had settled.

My charts are now telling a different story but I generally don't like NFP week because they play funny games. It could very well be a pump and dump but until I get PA confirmation, I'm not going to go short just yet.

You can see from this 4 hour AUD chart that PA hasn't succesfully been able to break above my 34 EMA since 18 Jan or so and we are having trouble breaking above weekly pivot. I'm waiting to see how it plays out. I do feel that the market is nervous though, from what I'm reading.

Daily Market Strategy attached as well if you feel like having a read.

trade up date,
closed long Gold from 1090 at 1115 (+250 pips)

short gold at 1115 SL=1126 TP=TBD