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  • #9,701
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:55pm Feb 1, 2010 7:55pm
Hi all

I am still here Strat just took a break for xmas, new year and more recently our summer holiday.
I attach a trade i initiated today.
Your thoughts and comments would be appreciated as always.
I realise that yen has showed considerable strenth of late but i am comfortable with the risk.
I would love to provide daily updates on this (if it gets off its feet but i lack the knowledge and confidence to do this at the moment).
Hopefully this will change when i read the thread in full throughout April. (as the family are away in England).
Good trading

ps excellent posts of late, this thread is getting better and i hardly venture anywhere else now, other than reading on a probable unhealthy curiosity for longer term grid trading.
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PASR student.
  • #9,702
  • Feb 1, 2010 8:50pm Feb 1, 2010 8:50pm
I may be shot down in flames but this is what I see and am going to trade.

Price retraced almost exactly 50% of the move up, so lets call that B of an ABC with C now in progress. The target eventually is about the same as the A leg near the 98 level.

Entry is above those recent highs and SL must be below the lows, I make that 89.95.

Small $/pip as always but if it goes as planned then I will be adding when PASR allows.

Yesterdays BUEB almost BUOB off that 90 ish SR is my PASR justification for the trade.

I hope Alexandra approves of my support for her views of this pair long term.

Larry
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  • #9,703
  • Feb 1, 2010 9:08pm Feb 1, 2010 9:08pm
An update on this trade.

I got in a bit later than I wanted on friday and was well pleased with the move yesterday until it retraced nearly half the day's move.

This morning I have moved my stop to BE (well small profit actually) just because I would prefer not to take a loss. If my stop is hit and price continues down then I will look for another opprtunity to re enter.

Larry
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  • #9,704
  • Feb 1, 2010 9:32pm Feb 1, 2010 9:32pm
RBA just announced no change in their Interest Rate Statement and the market had priced in a hike of at least 0.25%
Hence Aussie has fallen off a cliff
  • #9,705
  • Feb 1, 2010 9:37pm Feb 1, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting elitejets
RBA just announced no change in their Interest Rate Statement and the market had priced in a hike of at least 0.25%
Hence Aussie has fallen off a cliff
And she's dragging a few other pairs down with here . . . man!
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #9,706
  • Feb 1, 2010 9:41pm Feb 1, 2010 9:41pm
ouch, glad im short
Annoying Precision
  • #9,707
  • Edited 11:29pm Feb 1, 2010 11:15pm | Edited 11:29pm
Quoting elitejets
RBA just announced no change in their Interest Rate Statement and the market had priced in a hike of at least 0.25%
Hence Aussie has fallen off a cliff
I think that was in the cards. There is no squeeze right now on commodity supplies. Prices have recovered, yes, but there is no inflationary pressure. AUD in that environment will not benefit as much as during the initial recovery. The metals should prove interesting....I'm interested in your take on those markets.

From Jan 7th: "Could one say that perhaps the EUR is telling us something about the legs (or lack thereof) of the AUD ascent at this stage? "

I'm not advocating a short position, but it's come awfully far...needs some backing and filling at least.
  • #9,708
  • Edited 11:30pm Feb 1, 2010 11:17pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting LarryK
I may be shot down in flames but this is what I see and am going to trade.

Price retraced almost exactly 50% of the move up, so lets call that B of an ABC with C now in progress. The target eventually is about the same as the A leg near the 98 level.

Entry is above those recent highs and SL must be below the lows, I make that 89.95.

Small $/pip as always but if it goes as planned then I will be adding when PASR allows.

Yesterdays BUEB almost BUOB off that 90 ish SR is my PASR justification for the trade.

I hope Alexandra approves...
I approve wholeheartedly - until the forming weekly pattern is overturned. Nicola's channel needs to be respected though.
  • #9,709
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:33am Feb 2, 2010 12:33am
Quoting hcristea
Hello Strat, I have a question regarding the proper placement of SL for the SELL orders below candles 32 and 33. I've chosen this particular example but there are other similar patterns in the EURUSD chart.

I see two possibilities:

  1. CONSERVATIVE: SL is above the swing high, i.e. HIGH of candle 30
  2. AGRESSIVE/High risk: Above the high of each candle. Candle 32 respectively, candle 33


Do you prefer one of the above or any of them, depending on the market context? Or, none of the above?

Hello Strat, I have a question regarding the proper placement of SL for the SELL orders below candles 32 and 33. I've chosen this particular example but there are other similar patterns in the EURUSD chart.

I see two possibilities:

 

  1. CONSERVATIVE: SL is above the swing high, i.e. HIGH of candle 30
  2. AGRESSIVE/High risk: Above the high of each candle. Candle 32 respectively, candle 33


Do you prefer one of the above or any of them, depending on the market context? Or, none of the above?

I don’t know what the “proper” placement of a SL is – all I can tell you is what I do for my style of trading.

I try to hang in with a trend as long as I can and therefore I put my SL as far away from the noise and stop runs as is practical. This is above the swing high of candle 30.

While candles 32 and 33 were weak pull backs and most likely profit taking, and typical for a strong downtrend, nothing is guaranteed and many times you see the big boys run the stops in these situations.

Placement of SL is always on a case by case basis and dependent on your style of trading.

This is not suitable for those on the early steps of The Path as they should be trading from resistance down to 1st support and support up to 1st resistance.

Attempting to do this without being an expert at basic PASR is like driving a Ferrari when you haven’t even learned to ride a bicycle and is guaranteed to wipe you and your account out. Learn basic PASR first and prove yourself by doing it consistently on a real, live account for at least 6 months.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,710
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:44am Feb 2, 2010 12:44am
Quoting gododdin
Okay, I'd like to have another crack at this if I may - I know the bar hasn't closed yet, but assuming it will close looking something like it is now...

The pair has been in a range since mid October 09 and yesterday price hit a pivot point at around 79.50 which has been hit several times before from above and below (not at the bottom of the range though)....
I also note that volume is falling but I'm not sure of the significance of that if any.

So if you don't understand it, why do you have it on your charts taking up valuable space and providing "food" for your little people.

Only have on your charts, information that you use and rely on - take off everything else!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,711
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:48am Feb 2, 2010 12:48am
Quoting gododdin
I'm now on page 74 of the thread so I've passed the 10% mark!...
though I admit I haven't understood all of it

What is the point in continuing to read if you don't understand what you have already read?

You are wasting your time!

Read and UNDERSTAND - if you don't UNDERSTAND stop there and then UNTIL you do UNDERSTAND
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,712
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:52am Feb 2, 2010 12:52am
Quoting BaliuxXx
respected 1.0700 resistance. short order below today's BEEB's low.
Be careful - watch closely what happens at 1.0550 and then 1.0460
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,713
  • Feb 2, 2010 1:02am Feb 2, 2010 1:02am
Quoting strat
GBPCAD

Volunteer needed from one of the students on The Path to trade this LIVE with REAL money (not demo) as hcristea did with USDCAD.

To qualify, the student has to send me a screen shot of his live account with this order.

They must also post their PLAN for this trade and all entries, SLs, TPs etc., etc.
Post # #9630

This is very disappointing! I post a chart showing a candle at support and ask for volunteers to sell it.

So much for my tests these days!

Where were the questions and challenges to this?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,714
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:23am Feb 2, 2010 2:23am
Quoting strat
Be careful - watch closely what happens at 1.0550 and then 1.0460
thanks Strat. 1.0460 was marked in my charts, when I did the entry.
  • #9,715
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:23am Feb 2, 2010 2:23am
Quoting strat
I also note that volume is falling but I'm not sure of the significance of that if any.

So if you don't understand it, why do you have it on your charts taking up valuable space and providing "food" for your little people.

Only have on your charts, information that you use and rely on - take off everything else!
Well, because you said it is a part of the method that you use and I figured if I have it on there I may begin to see the significance of it. If I don't have it on there at all I've got no chance, have I?
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,716
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:27am Feb 2, 2010 2:27am
Quoting strat
though I admit I haven't understood all of it

What is the point in continuing to read if you don't understand what you have already read?

You are wasting your time!

Read and UNDERSTAND - if you don't UNDERSTAND stop there and then UNTIL you do UNDERSTAND
I do go on to say in that post that it's because there are puzzles to which the answer has not been revealed. But I will do as you suggest and go back over it from the beginning before going any further. Thanks for your observations.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,717
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:56am Feb 2, 2010 2:56am
Quoting strat
Attempting to do this without being an expert at basic PASR is like driving a Ferrari when you haven’t even learned to ride a bicycle and is guaranteed to wipe you and your account out. Learn basic PASR first and prove yourself by doing it consistently on a real, live account for at least 6 months.
Indeed. At the moment trying this would not be stress free for me. Thanks for clarifying this aspect.
  • #9,718
  • Edited 4:58am Feb 2, 2010 3:30am | Edited 4:58am
Quoting strat
Post # #9630

This is very disappointing! I post a chart showing a candle at support and ask for volunteers to sell it.

So much for my tests these days!

Where were the questions and challenges to this?
Well, if the big boys plans were to massive buy GBPCAD, they changed their mind after you said "SELL". That support didn't had any chance.

There were a few technical reasons in favor for a SHORT at GBPCAD:
- clear down trend and all time frames Big Boss, Boss, Daily
- boss SS at TL and at Fibo 50 from last Boss swing.
- on some feeds the 1, 2, 3, candles noted on the volunteer (pipfx) chart shown a SS, followed by a doji followed by a BEOB which confirmed the SS as swing high.
- the support seems minor. It doesn't exist on the boss chart.
- these candles touched the Boss's 20 EMA (Worker 100 EMA) which the Worker seem to follow religiously. Boss's 20 EMA seems a more powerful resistance than the worker minor support @1.7078

The cons against the SHORT is the support and personally i'm not convinced about this support. There is another support at 1.69 and this one looks more meaningful. If i would had to choose between 1.69 and 1.7079, I chose 1.69 which is a true psycho
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  • #9,719
  • Feb 2, 2010 5:50am Feb 2, 2010 5:50am
Quoting strat
Post # #9630

This is very disappointing! I post a chart showing a candle at support and ask for volunteers to sell it.

So much for my tests these days!

Where were the questions and challenges to this?
I must confess I have yet to learn that not all you post is PASR gospel, and that you often say the exact opposite to what is correct in order to exact a response.

The potential trade that you posted looked very valid to my inexperienced eye, particularly in that it was with the trend of the boss, although the big boss candle for jan might have given one pause. However the boss candle for last week was very encouraging for a short trade.

I was just envoius that I did not have it on my platform.

Larry
  • #9,720
  • Feb 2, 2010 5:58am Feb 2, 2010 5:58am
Hi,

well whilst long term trading is much more hands free and gives you time away from the screen (which in itself reduces stress massivley) I wouldn't automatically say long term trading is stress free.

Generally it has wider stops so bigger losses. The drawdons are bigger and tend to last longer.

But as long as you take a long term view, take low risks, it is the best way to proceed for a longer happier trading life.
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