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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #10,321
  • Jan 31, 2010 6:37pm Jan 31, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I'm looking at maybe an aggressive short from 14020 area...with a less risky short area being near 14200.

overal main target at the moment on the downside has to be 13750 area - 50% fib strong PPZ etc.

LJ


So you are waiting for the retrace as Jacko mentions to around the 1.4150 area?


Ok, I see what the plan is now, after looking at the Monthly.

I am just wondering if Jacko based this trade on the monthly with the 50 fibo being around the 1.4183 area.
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  • #10,322
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:46pm Jan 31, 2010 7:46pm
Confusing myself with this fibo.

I just opened a fresh chart and drew the fibo from the low on the weekly from the low 1.1640 from 2005/Nov 13- High 1.6018 2008 April 20.
It now appears as if we have already tested the 50 fibo at 1.3829 or came within 20 pips of it. Jacko seems to think it is going to test the 1.4150 or thereabouts. Yet, he also mentions that this continuing move down is unexpected. Ok, my question is, where did Jacko expect price to move to before it retraced. Was it around the 1.3975 area?
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  • #10,323
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:09pm Jan 31, 2010 9:09pm
I drew the Fib from low of 10/08 to high of 10/09 on daily chart and price is approaching 50% at 1.3700. That's why Im looking at that number for a bounce up. I have a pending short order at 1.3840. If it triggers great, if not..oh well.
  • #10,324
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:52pm Jan 31, 2010 9:52pm
i am inclined to hope for a nice retrace up and then find a opportunity to short EURUSD. many of us, jacko included, has been waiting for the pair to do a retrace for weeks now. but it has confounded us and continued on its way down with little retaraces of no significance.

this morning, i had a chance to relook the daily. if you draw the fibs from 21/4/09 low to 26/11/09 high, you will notice the retraces take place in the ranges of the fibos only.

so i think....if there is no significant retrace, then the area of interest should be between 50% and 61.8% and we should short from there. IMHO.

i am sorry there is no chart to better explain my post. will post a chart soon. my laptop has just been restored.
  • #10,325
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:09pm Jan 31, 2010 10:09pm
It seems that Jacko is drawing the fibo from the 1.2328 dated 2008/10/28, according to the mail I just got from him.

It's Monday and the first day of the month, I don't expect many big moves today.
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  • #10,326
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:51pm Feb 1, 2010 2:51pm
Hey guys, i'm officially confused.
Rastaman, am i correct in assuming that jacko's fib would be looking for a long at the 50 Fib?
Today's daily chart is shaping up to be a bullish signal, just above 50 retrace.
I've drawn my fib from Feb 09, as it is at a similar level to where jacko has drawn his fib from Nov 08. I think i'm similarily confused to you, as to why this is a valid point to retrace from.
Other contributors are looking to short- this is obviously dependent on as to whether one views the swing high in dec 09 as initiating a new trend.
Lower Highs and Lower Lows would support this view.

Any advice appreciated.
  • #10,327
  • Edited 9:37pm Feb 1, 2010 8:59pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting w buffet jnr
Hey guys, i'm officially confused.
Rastaman, am i correct in assuming that jacko's fib would be looking for a long at the 50 Fib?
Today's daily chart is shaping up to be a bullish signal, just above 50 retrace.
I've drawn my fib from Feb 09, as it is at a similar level to where jacko has drawn his fib from Nov 08. I think i'm similarily confused to you, as to why this is a valid point to retrace from.
Other contributors are looking to short-...
Jacko seems to waiting for the retrace to around the 1.4150 area where he originally went short, and waiting to go back in short again.
I presume he took TP on the previous short, but this is not mentioned by him? Wouldn't make any sense to keep the short open if one is waiting for the retest of the 1.4150.

I don't think he is looking to go long anywhere on this pair.


In the meantime, I am keeping my eye on these double bottom bars at 1.3852 & 1.3851
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  • #10,328
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:20am Feb 2, 2010 12:20am
A look at the H1 tf seems to show that we are in a channel with hints of a possible bullish breakout. Not that I will be jumping on this breakout with the obvious resistance at 1.3988 area.

Any opinions welcome.
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  • #10,329
  • Edited 8:51am Feb 2, 2010 8:18am | Edited 8:51am
If you believe that there is retracement back to 1.4150, as I also believe is likely, why wouldn't you want to capture some of those long pips? I went long at 1.3925 and am up about 25 pips.

I believe you may have a slight case of "analysis paralysis", something we all catch from time to time, especially those of us who have to analyse everything for our day job, as I do.

Here are my H4 and daily charts, for what they are worth. I have a take profit at 1.3980. If price shoots through that level, I will likely reenter long at some point on prices hopeful journey to 4150.
  • #10,330
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:21am Feb 2, 2010 8:21am
EURUSD H4
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  • #10,331
  • Feb 2, 2010 8:25am Feb 2, 2010 8:25am
EURUSD Daily
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  • #10,332
  • Edited 9:53am Feb 2, 2010 9:07am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting lawgirl21
If you believe that there is retracement back to 1.4150, as I also believe is likely, why wouldn't you want to capture some of those long pips? I went long at 1.3925 and am up about 25 pips.

I believe you may have a slight case of "analysis paralysis", something we all catch from time to time, especially those of us who have to analyse everything for our day job, as I do.

Here are my H4 and daily charts, for what they are worth. I have a take profit at 1.3980. If price shoots through that level, I will likely reenter long at some point on...
You could well be right LG.

I want to believe price will retrace to or around the 1.4150, but first I must work it out myself.
I am not doubting Jacko at all, I just feel that I must learn how to fish rather than being given a fish.

I hope you can understand this and I am sure you can.

Edit: I don't have a day job, apart from studying trading for 10 to 15 hours a day, everyday.
Maybe, this is also a problem in the sense that I may have too much involvement, yet I tend to believe this has served me well rather than being detrimental. That said, I totally understand where you are coming from and I must also be careful of the issue you mention.

Perhaps if you show me exactly why you believe price will retrace to the 1.4150 area, it may be an educational experience.
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  • #10,333
  • Feb 2, 2010 10:42am Feb 2, 2010 10:42am
I don't know why Jacko believes price will go to 4150, but for me it looks like a major resistence level. Take a "clean" chart and place a line at that level and study it on time frames from monthly to H4. I think you will see it as a significant level.

The reason I went long is I almost never trade against the weekly chart. The only indicator I use is RSI(3) and if it is pointing up on the weekly chart, I almost never trade against it. If direction confirms on the daily and H4, as it is now, I feel very confident about the trade. As Jacko says it takes major momemtum to reverse the weekly trend. My dilemna has been at what point in the trading week is the weekly trend set (in stone! lol). My research indicates that by Tuesday or Wednesday the weekly trend is set, and generally does not reverse.

It's good to be able to communicate with someone about this.
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  • #10,334
  • Feb 2, 2010 11:48am Feb 2, 2010 11:48am
Hi lawgirl21,

With respect.

My interpretation of a trend is:
Higher Lows together with higher highs = Uptrend

Lower Highs together with lower lows = Downtrend


Now one and a half days into a new week would be too early in my reckoning to determine a new weekly trend. It would also be too early to determine a new daily trend.

What your analysis is relying on is a 3 period weekly RSI.

Regards,


BabeFX.
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  • #10,335
  • Feb 2, 2010 12:44pm Feb 2, 2010 12:44pm
[quote=lawgirl21;3423111]If you believe that there is retracement back to 1.4150, as I also believe is likely, why wouldn't you want to capture some of those long pips? I went long at 1.3925 and am up about 25 pips./quote]

Because if you're wrong - the trend will not get you out of it. The general idea of trading the trend is that if you make a mistake with your entry you still have the trend on your side and in the worst case scenario you can use the anti-hedge strategy. Trading the trend, as this thread started, was designed to make trading easy and as stress-free as possible - trying to catch every single move (up, down or otherwise) is not.

If you were trading an alternative strategy though, 1.3850 is a reasonable area to go long... but that's a different story.

Regards,

Dan
  • #10,336
  • Feb 2, 2010 1:42pm Feb 2, 2010 1:42pm
my two cents, if we get by 4050 which is 50% of 1/25 to 1/29 (last weeks range) with some S & R. Then 4200 might be a nice short. It's the top of that range, its's 50% of last months range which would make a very easy to see high and low, there's some S & R there and 00s. We'll see what happens.
  • #10,337
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:09pm Feb 2, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting BabeFX
Hi lawgirl21,

With respect.

My interpretation of a trend is:
Higher Lows together with higher highs = Uptrend

Lower Highs together with lower lows = Downtrend


Now one and a half days into a new week would be too early in my reckoning to determine a new weekly trend. It would also be too early to determine a new daily trend.

What your analysis is relying on is a 3 period weekly RSI.

Regards,


BabeFX.
Hi BabeFX,
That is how I see the trends also and it looks to me like we are in a downtrend now.

That said, if there is a retracement period going on now and we are waiting for price to meet a certain level to go short again..I am going to try to take some of those pips as price moves up. Not strictly Jacko trading..but generally works for me.
  • #10,338
  • Feb 2, 2010 2:25pm Feb 2, 2010 2:25pm
[quote=DanUK;3423985]
Quoting lawgirl21
If you believe that there is retracement back to 1.4150, as I also believe is likely, why wouldn't you want to capture some of those long pips? I went long at 1.3925 and am up about 25 pips./quote]

Because if you're wrong - the trend will not get you out of it. The general idea of trading the trend is that if you make a mistake with your entry you still have the trend on your side and in the worst case scenario you can use the anti-hedge strategy. Trading the trend, as this thread started, was designed to make trading...
Hi Dan--Yes, I understand what you are saying, but 1.4150 may be days or weeks away, if ever reached! I guess I am just a little more aggressive a trader... for while I am patient, I am not that patient. I don't find it stressful trading but am always prepared to loose a certain number of pips.

I will be happy when we can short the EUR again, as while the market never seems to go straight up, it seems to go down steadily, which is less stressful in my opinion.
  • #10,339
  • Feb 2, 2010 3:24pm Feb 2, 2010 3:24pm
My charts...

Obvious area for a short is the PPZ and TL which is currently @ circa 1.4200 area.

Targets marked on the 4H as potential trouble areas for a current long trade...I'll be moving to B/E + 1 @ 1.4000 area and the routinely moving the stop up at each area...I prefer tighter stops on counter-trend trades.
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  • #10,340
  • Feb 2, 2010 5:00pm Feb 2, 2010 5:00pm
So, you are in a long trade too?
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