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  • #14,981
  • Feb 1, 2010 10:52am Feb 1, 2010 10:52am
Quoting Clouds
what about this TL?
Attachment
...... it makes me thinking, I dont want to go short here, I prefer to take it at weekly P, hope it gets filled
  • #14,982
  • Feb 1, 2010 10:58am Feb 1, 2010 10:58am
dam my short is not doing so well right now, thinking of coming out soon if it hit new lows, if not gotta take a bigger loss... ohh well, $1 pip anyway...
  • #14,983
  • Feb 1, 2010 11:29am Feb 1, 2010 11:29am
Quoting tradoholic
just took a risk, added more shorts 8876, SL 89.00. Hopefully it will not cross the resistance
I took a short as well at .8883, might be a risk, but on a price extension basis, it should be a real nice short if it hits. Normally, I would wait for a 60 minute confirmation on CCI, but it is in the Stratosphere right now so by the time I get it I would miss it. What are you thinking about as a TP because I am afraid to even put mine on here?
  • #14,984
  • Feb 1, 2010 11:41am Feb 1, 2010 11:41am
Quoting tradoholic
just took a risk, added more shorts 8876, SL 89.00. Hopefully it will not cross the resistance
If it does turn back up, my next line would force me to bail. The max retracement that could happen also rests on that line at .8920. I defintely get a little uncomfortable when lines and fib's align. This should be interesting.
  • #14,985
  • Feb 1, 2010 11:52am Feb 1, 2010 11:52am
Quoting Clouds
what about this TL?
Attachment
Hey bro
I Like your chart but hmmm..... Can u tell me where are we going
  • #14,986
  • Feb 1, 2010 11:58am Feb 1, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Ducci
If it does turn back up, my next line would force me to bail. The max retracement that could happen also rests on that line at .8920. I defintely get a little uncomfortable when lines and fib's align. This should be interesting.
I bailed and looking to re-enter around .8920? We have a nice short coming soon, or 60 min CCI confirmation.
  • #14,987
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:05pm Feb 1, 2010 12:05pm
the question is, with all this AUD strength thus far today, are we already pricing in the rate hike? or will this strength continue through the Asia session in to london. if that is the case these pullbacks that everyone sees as downward trend resuming could just be good oppts to buy. were already up 100 correction pips on the day...
  • #14,988
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:14pm Feb 1, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting jdutch
the question is, with all this AUD strength thus far today, are we already pricing in the rate hike? or will this strength continue through the Asia session in to london. if that is the case these pullbacks that everyone sees as downward trend resuming could just be good oppts to buy. were already up 100 correction pips on the day...
Good point, but I just have a hard time seeing this go above .8920 without some type of retracement of 61.8 or better. I will probably set a TP at 61.8 when I do enter with a trailing stop in case we do continue further up. Mondays are always hard so either way I am waiting for a confirmation on my main indicator this time even if it means entering 20 PIP's lower on a 50 PIP or better move.
  • #14,989
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:16pm Feb 1, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting egkid
Hey bro
I Like your chart but hmmm..... Can u tell me where are we going
i dont know. .89 and down to .88
  • #14,990
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:18pm Feb 1, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting Ducci
Good point, but I just have a hard time seeing this go above .8920 without some type of retracement of 61.8 or better. I will probably set a TP at 61.8 when I do enter with a trailing stop in case we do continue further up. Mondays are always hard so either way I am waiting for a confirmation on my main indicator this time even if it means entering 20 PIP's lower on a 50 PIP or better move.

it just a tough call because the quickness with which all these dollar pairs dropped last week, you would expect and equally quick correction and that coupled with the fact that gold is having a phenomenal day and the dow is holding higher, riskier assets are looking like a buy today. i think the rate hike this evening is only going to solidify that IMO, but where it lands, who knows. with the large move it made already, i def think it will test the upper end of the down trending channel on the 4hr, from there who knows. obviously, IMO.
  • #14,991
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:39pm Feb 1, 2010 12:39pm
Sell pending order @ 3911
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #14,992
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:42pm Feb 1, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting jdutch
it just a tough call because the quickness with which all these dollar pairs dropped last week, you would expect and equally quick correction and that coupled with the fact that gold is having a phenomenal day and the dow is holding higher, riskier assets are looking like a buy today. i think the rate hike this evening is only going to solidify that IMO, but where it lands, who knows. with the large move it made already, i def think it will test the upper end of the down trending channel on the 4hr, from there who knows. obviously, IMO.
I might even enter a short when I get a decent confirmation with a TP of 38.2% with a trail. I figured that we were headed for a long at the end of last Friday, but I hate to bet on this one sustaining without a retracement at this point. It seems to be stalling at .8900? I am still not taking it yet. Every time on days like this that I anticipate an indicator, I end up taking a small loss and re-entering.
  • #14,993
  • Feb 1, 2010 12:48pm Feb 1, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting Ducci
I might even enter a short when I get a decent confirmation with a TP of 38.2% with a trail. I figured that we were headed for a long at the end of last Friday, but I hate to bet on this one sustaining without a retracement at this point. It seems to be stalling at .8900? I am still not taking it yet. Every time on days like this that I anticipate an indicator, I end up taking a small loss and re-entering.

IMO, i think the market is just stalling at .8900 given what i wrote about before that with the rate hike there could be potentially more movement this evening, and right now the DOW has been giving back just a little, so its pulling AUD back a little. its having a little trouble with the 10173 level, and gold is giving a little right now too. only time will tell. if we close the NY session though with these type of gains in equities and gold, i think that can be seen as another solidifying indicator of more correction to come
  • #14,994
  • Feb 1, 2010 1:07pm Feb 1, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting jdutch
IMO, i think the market is just stalling at .8900 given what i wrote about before that with the rate hike there could be potentially more movement this evening, and right now the DOW has been giving back just a little, so its pulling AUD back a little. its having a little trouble with the 10173 level, and gold is giving a little right now too. only time will tell. if we close the NY session though with these type of gains in equities and gold, i think that can be seen as another solidifying indicator of more correction to come
At this rate unless we continue to channel and maybe continue up, it wouldn't be until around 4 Eastern that I would even get a solid indicator for a short so this will be close to the end of the NY Session. I also would not be surprised if we did retrace a good 50 PIPs and climbed all night through the Europe session? If I were an instituational buyer, I sure would rather see it happen that way, push it down, then ride it up. I think what will answer our questions as to where we are headed is the percent of the next retracement.
  • #14,995
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:11pm Feb 1, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting Ducci
At this rate unless we continue to channel and maybe continue up, it wouldn't be until around 4 Eastern that I would even get a solid indicator for a short so this will be close to the end of the NY Session. I also would not be surprised if we did retrace a good 50 PIPs and climbed all night through the Europe session? If I were an instituational buyer, I sure would rather see it happen that way, push it down, then ride it up. I think what will answer our questions as to where we are headed is the percent of the next retracement.

i agree.
  • #14,996
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:45pm Feb 1, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting WedWed
Sell pending order @ 3911
i just selled from 3911...cheers...
  • #14,997
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:15pm Feb 1, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Clouds
when aud/usd fell from .97 to .60 , there was only 1 bullish week. the odds are in the shorts favor, if you agree that the usd is indeed bullish, it's unlike the environment when the usd is bearish and there's retracements all the time.
I agree with that. Any positive #'s coming out of Australia are weak and cyclical. It seems everybody knows something bad is about to come around the corner, what it is I don't know, but most traders have negative sentiment, and the USD is the safe haven.
  • #14,998
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:23pm Feb 1, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting jdutch
the question is, with all this AUD strength thus far today, are we already pricing in the rate hike? or will this strength continue through the Asia session in to london. if that is the case these pullbacks that everyone sees as downward trend resuming could just be good oppts to buy. were already up 100 correction pips on the day...
Or, you could look at it as the correction to the top of the down trend channel, and it coincides with the rate announcement. Whether or not the rate rises today the traders in it for the day will close out long position after the announcement and the downtrend will commence.
  • #14,999
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:38pm Feb 1, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Or, you could look at it as the correction to the top of the down trend channel, and it coincides with the rate announcement. Whether or not the rate rises today the traders in it for the day will close out long position after the announcement and the downtrend will commence.
I had to pass on this one because I am at a school event,but I bet this is really close now to a nice short. I had .8920 as the top end of this run.
  • #15,000
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:08pm Feb 1, 2010 4:08pm
Aud will be back down to 8751 sometime in February, but in the mean time there is nothing stopping it going up to 8999 first if rates are raised today.
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