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Mechanical trend trading

  • #121
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:35pm Jan 29, 2010 1:35pm
gbpusd was in a congestion area, finaly it break to the downside, before the real break it faked out most of the traders out there that is for sure. I stay out of these types of markets, first let it break out and then look for setups for that direction.


So from here on I will only look for short entries, because that breakout gives me some ideas it is a bearish market for gbp/usd
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  • #122
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:41pm Jan 29, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Paulus
EURCAD same as yours SL 1/3 of TP

Question why is your TP less than the last swing low..if the down trend is in place the swing low has to be taken out for it to continue ?

Good trading

P

I am sorry, I should of mentioned my first TP already hit in its place where just above 4800, on that pic what you are seeing is my 2nd TP.
  • #123
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:46pm Jan 29, 2010 1:46pm
come on I am still watching my nzd/jpy trade, another 15-20 pips to go to secure profit. If I secure profit then I will leave the 2nd entry over the weekend for next week, it is a free ride from there on,
  • #124
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:10pm Jan 29, 2010 2:10pm
Hi Fed,

Looking at the Gbpusd, how did you understand that at the top it was a fake breakout and when it broke from the bottom it was a true breakout.

Thanks
  • #125
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:11pm Jan 29, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting Paulus
'Look at this trade today with eur/jpy, I got stoped at 126.67, The price came down hard after, I had my SL at 126.60. This is my first loss for this week trading live. If I have placed the SL another 10 pips higher I would of had a great winning trade. Pairs like eur/jpy, gbp/usd, gbp/jpy does need that extra cushion.'

fed

This is the trade that was opened yest on EURJPY TP is swing low 1/3 of that value is SL which is above the last swing high.Bad luck on the stop out ..its a beast this swap

P
Paulus thanks for making me realise about the SL there, it is very neat. I usually use 10-20 pips above 70%. I am analysing your SL....Probably I will implement your way, looks very effective.
  • #126
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:27pm Jan 29, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting ukcool
Hi Fed,

Looking at the Gbpusd, how did you understand that at the top it was a fake breakout and when it broke from the bottom it was a true breakout.

Thanks
ukcool there are 2 types of break outs, one is when price makes a break it will usually pull back and then continue, this will confirm the break (not 100% true but it is the most acurate), the second type of a break is when the market has a lot of momentum, the price will strike itself out of its congestion area without looking back and the price will break 100-150 pips easily out of the area. Breakout traders will not trade if there is alot of momentum, they would usual wait for it to pull back and then they would wait for the price come back to that direction again which is point A and enter 5 pips above it. I hope that made sence
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  • #127
  • Edited 2:53pm Jan 29, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 2:53pm
finally nzd/jpy hit my first TP and from here on it is a free trade, see how far I will go with it....

Another half hour guys for my brocker will wrap up for the week, it was a profitable week for me that is for sure. Next week will be another exciting one....
  • #128
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:36pm Jan 29, 2010 2:36pm
Thats a beautiful explanation, thank you my friend.
  • #129
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:50pm Jan 29, 2010 2:50pm
Here is when I don't take a trade even my elements line up perfectly, when I see a big movement with one candel, so if one candel moves viciously by itself all the way to the entry point then I close my pending orders. Probably some news effects which I am not aware of is happening and it will kill your trade with in 15-20 mins..

I also don't take trades when I already have 3 open, I would only open the 4th trade only if I see A+ trades....

I forgot to inclue, any interest rate news or NFP news I don't trade, I wait at least few hours for the spikes to finish.....
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  • #130
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:55pm Jan 29, 2010 2:55pm
Hey fed are you doing limit orders at the trend line, or do you enter a stop limit order after the trend line is touched?

In other words if the trendline is sloping down do you have a sell limit order on the trend line? Or do you enter a sell stop order below the trendline after the trendline is touched?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #131
  • Jan 29, 2010 3:23pm Jan 29, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting stevegee58
Hey fed are you doing limit orders at the trend line, or do you enter a stop limit order after the trend line is touched?

In other words if the trendline is sloping down do you have a sell limit order on the trend line? Or do you enter a sell stop order below the trendline after the trendline is touched?
depends, usual before the price touched to the trendline, lets say the round # lines below the trend line and at the same time the fibs levels 38-61% also below the trend line, then I would put the pending orders below it and this happens more often. Sometimes the 2 elements will be just above the trend line about 5-20 pips (market is not perfect) then I would enter to those trades slightly above the trendlines. If the price made a big move above the trendline then I don't enter in, that would mean the price break the trendline and could move against my trade and take a loss. Everything has to line up accordingly, if it is off by 5-20 pips, it is not a big issue.
  • #132
  • Jan 29, 2010 4:44pm Jan 29, 2010 4:44pm
Hello, i found this thread and i think very intresting the way you trade, very simple but eficient at the time, but there are a thing that i don't understand, when you write for example:

Quote
Ok so far today..

USDJPY no sig
USDCHF +51
USDCAD no sig
GBPUSD +71-30
GBPJPY no sig
EURUSD -10
EURJPY currently short 127.71 TP 126.53 SL 128.13
EURGBP -10

what means that numbers.
i have been read all the thread, and i don't understand, maybe because my lenguaje is spanish and there are some point that i don't see well in my reading.

greetings!

Alejo
  • #133
  • Feb 1, 2010 6:27am Feb 1, 2010 6:27am
Quoting alej0
Hello, i found this thread and i think very intresting the way you trade, very simple but eficient at the time, but there are a thing that i don't understand, when you write for example:



what means that numbers.
i have been read all the thread, and i don't understand, maybe because my lenguaje is spanish and there are some point that i don't see well in my reading.

greetings!

Alejo

See post #14, #15 in page 1.
  • #134
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:28am Feb 1, 2010 7:28am
a quick update..

2 open positions from Friday 1 closed 1 still open

EURJPY +150 pips

USDJPY still short from 90.61 TP 89.15 SL 91.14

1st Feb new trades/positions

USDCAD +34+18 -10 +17 -8

EURJPY short today from 125.71 TP 124.54 SL 126.15

cheers

P
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  • #135
  • Feb 1, 2010 8:06am Feb 1, 2010 8:06am
Paulus,
What do you do, when you are stopped out from a trade? Do you enter twice in the same setup, if the price action is good, or do you wait for the next one?

Thanks

Brian
  • #136
  • Feb 1, 2010 8:48am Feb 1, 2010 8:48am
yes good question but I wait until we have a conclusion on the trade.. if I miss the 1st then id take the 2nd though..

new signal

short eurusd 1.3923 TP 1.3851 SL 1.3950

P
  • #137
  • Feb 1, 2010 10:39am Feb 1, 2010 10:39am
Quoting Paulus
a quick update..

2 open positions from Friday 1 closed 1 still open

EURJPY +150 pips

USDJPY still short from 90.61 TP 89.15 SL 91.14

1st Feb new trades/positions

USDCAD +34+18 -10 +17 -8

EURJPY short today from 125.71 TP 124.54 SL 126.15

cheers

P
I thought your rules were to draw the line off the previous 2 highs. Your EY chart is incorrect?
  • #138
  • Feb 1, 2010 11:32am Feb 1, 2010 11:32am
Hi PorkPie

yep your correct I was trying to pick up an accurate trend line going back to the start of the down trend in Jan

It lost 44 pips and have marked the trend as per my earlier post and your recent observations.

Im still trying to formulate an accurate formula of constructing the trend lines

I have marked the trend again we have lower highs and lower lows so it seems ok

Thanks for keeping me on my toes

P
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  • #139
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:12pm Feb 1, 2010 3:12pm
Hi guys, just to give you guys some ideas about the majors, most of them are near sup/res levels and when that happens I always wait for the price to break itself out of these levels, then I look for setups. The setups that we will see, they could be loosers. For example look at the daily chart for eur/usd, there is a support at 3750 area and the price came close to that line this morning, now it could either break that line to the downside or the price could reverse back tot he upside if the level holds. Untill then I will wait and watch.

I have missed a great trade with EUR/CAD, my pending orders didn't trigger over night by 2 pips and that is too bad.....
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  • #140
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:44pm Feb 1, 2010 3:44pm
Here is a nice setup cought my attention with usd/chf
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