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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #41
  • Jan 31, 2010 6:59pm Jan 31, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting shahab8b
thanx for the charts patience,
have you look at my EURGBP bullish Gartley? I'm long that pair , RRR is good but I need to keep it for at least one week or two (if my sl is not taken out though)
btw you might want to consider my Long EURUSD suggestion at 1.3750 if you think USDindex is topping ;-)
I did see your bullish Gartley. I just don't like this pair because it smacked me the last two times I traded it. I've flicked through my charts and I'm just trying to find reasons not to buy it. I don't like the look of the weekly or monthly but don't let my charts put you off

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #42
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:00pm Jan 31, 2010 7:00pm
please note the inverse price quotation here,
the market is slightly net short JPYUSD (at your chart long USDJPY) by
-4,347 , they reduced their short JPYUSD contracts from -16,744. it means they are reducing their Long USDJPY position and at the current time the markt is practically nuetral in this pair (may be a little bit favoring USD over JPY)
the COT index increased from the extreme bearish 0 (extreme bullish for USDJPY) to 17. two weeks ago this reading (extreme 0) gave us a nice signal to short USDJPY from 93.
right now I favore up side for the USDJPY
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #43
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:07pm Jan 31, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting Patience
I did see your bullish Gartley. I just don't like this pair because it smacked me the last two times I traded it. I've flicked through my charts and I'm just trying to find reasons not to buy it. I don't like the look of the weekly or monthly but don't let my charts put you off

Attachment

Attachment
thanx for the chart , if I think which pair I hate the most I would say Cable, that pair is a beast, it too hard to trade (at least for me).
I've already taken the long on EURGBP, not many traders approve that thought, there are lots R in the way up, but lets stick to the pattern and hope H.M. Gartley hadnt been drunk when he wrote his book in 1935!
  • #44
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:23pm Jan 31, 2010 7:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
thanx for the chart , if I think which pair I hate the most I would say Cable, that pair is a beast, it too hard to trade (at least for me).
I've already taken the long on EURGBP, not many traders approve that thought, there are lots R in the way up, but lets stick to the pattern and hope H.M. Gartley hant been drunk when he wrote his book in 1935!
I would have to agree with that. I very rarely touch it. I still think the sentiment towards GBP is worse than EUR so it will be interesting to see how your trade plays out.

I'm already loaded up with A/J so I'd really like JPY to weaken (got bullish divergence on monthly) because if AUD keeps weakening I'm getting the double whammy. I said to Clouds the other night that I was starting to look at worse case scenario with A/J. No stops on these ones - ho, ho, ho. Just bounced off daily 200 MA. Got a sub-account to short A/J if I get really desperate and have to do damage control which I may have to do if indices keep melting down.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #45
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:42pm Jan 31, 2010 7:42pm
well, we all have a love and hate feeling toward this one.
can anyone claim he/she didnt want to long it in early 2009 and hold it till Dec 2009?
I am a EWI follower (at least I read what they say) and they kept saying Gold is topped in 2008 , sure it topped!!! I just dont understand why they still insist on their wrong analysis,

back to COT analysis, the large institute love this metal, they just buy and hold forever , market is net long with 211,924 open interets however the net long is reduced from 221,469 (note the net long extreme before the reversal in early Dec 09).
the COT index is extreme bearish 0 which makes me think of having a Long position if the S at 1,070 holds
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #46
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:59pm Jan 31, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi deanbo
thanks for the chart but why didnt you drop some brief analysis of what is shown becuase I cant understand what was your idea.
Not sure if there is any chance of EUR/USD rising to 1.40100 anytime soon, but if it did that would be my entry point at the moment for shorting EUR/USD with my stop at 1.40500. Included the chart again for reference. First TP would be at 1.38800.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #47
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:18pm Jan 31, 2010 8:18pm
I have two trade set up for Gold based on whether S at 1070 holds or not

first scenario, if S at 1070 holds go long at break of R at 1090

second scenario if the S at 1070 breaks short this pair till 1.618 projection of BC at 1025-30 then switch to long aiming 1140 , 50% of AD
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  • #48
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:40pm Jan 31, 2010 8:40pm
Quoting puks
G'day team,

First of all, nice thread.

I'd like to say something if I may.



Cheers
hi mate,
what you said is a good idea,
btw I sent you an email, let me know when you read it.
  • #49
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:07pm Jan 31, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi mate,
what you said is a good idea,
btw I sent you an email, let me know when you read it.
hey buddy,

Thanks for the e-mail. i read it on my phone but will open attachment and read in detail when I get home tonight.

Will reply back there.

Thanks
  • #50
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:22am Feb 1, 2010 4:22am
trade up date:

SHORT GBPUSD (from 1.6210) is closed at 1.5910 target (+300 pips)
  • #51
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:40am Feb 1, 2010 4:40am
trade update:
SL for the LONG EURGBP from .8680 moved to B/E
  • #52
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:00am Feb 1, 2010 5:00am
Quoting shahab8b
trade update:
SL for the LONG EURGBP from .8680 moved to B/E
Nice one Took off without me on board. It doesn't pay to try and convince myself not to take the trade. Nothing earthmoving happening elsewhere. AUD still looking heavy.

Daily Market Strategy attached
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_1_Feb_2010.pdf   233 KB | 811 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #53
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:08am Feb 1, 2010 5:08am
Quoting Patience
Nice one Took off without me on board. It doesn't pay to try and convince myself not to take the trade. Nothing earthmoving happening elsewhere. AUD still looking heavy.

Daily Market Strategy attached
thanx, I did try to convince you ,
I think Aussie may break tonight, it really depends on NYSE today, if they fall assuie/kiwi will follow
btw ,thanx for the report, great as always
  • #54
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:11am Feb 1, 2010 5:11am
for those who missed the short GBPUSD call last time,
Sell Cable on the retest of S turns R at 1.6075,
dont jump in now, it's too oversold and RRR is not favorable IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:34am Feb 1, 2010 5:34am
Quoting shahab8b
for those who missed the short GBPUSD call last time,
Sell Cable on the retest of S turns R at 1.6075,
dont jump in now, it's too oversold and RRR is not favorable IMO
Hope so coz I am long :-)

aiming to TP at first psych level 1.60
  • #56
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:04am Feb 1, 2010 7:04am
Quoting puks
Hope so coz I am long :-)

aiming to TP at first psych level 1.60
when did you go long cable? you will recover it, dont worry
  • #57
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:07am Feb 1, 2010 7:07am
Written by Danske Bank | Feb 01 10 10:42 GM
Speculative investors turn net long the dollar
The latest IMM data cover the week from 19 to 26 January.
Coinciding with the past week's strong dollar performance, non-commercial investors have once again turned net long the dollar.
Long dollar positions against the euro were built further to reach 21 percent of open interest – not far from the level of short EUR positions in place at the height of the financial crisis. As a result, the risk to EUR/USD from a position squeeze remains skewed to the upside.
While the extension of short EUR positions was the main driver of the increase in net long dollar positions, the IMM data do show a broad-based build-up in USD longs. This is not least visible from the unwinding of long positions in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD.
Contrary to the overall trend, non-commercial investors reduced net short positions in the yen – implying that net positions are now close to neutral
Attached Image
  • #58
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:36am Feb 1, 2010 7:36am
Quoting shahab8b
when did you go long cable? you will recover it, dont worry
I was trapped long from Friday, then hedged it, cleared it (hedged position) and now nett long.

In short, I am looking at 1.6 to get out at b/e.
  • #59
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:37am Feb 1, 2010 7:37am
Quoting puks
Hope so coz I am long :-)

aiming to TP at first psych level 1.60
you know that weekly pivot for cable is 1.6070 , dont hold it till then , they will sell it below the weekly pivot if it gets there
  • #60
  • Feb 1, 2010 7:37am Feb 1, 2010 7:37am
Quoting shahab8b
when did you go long cable? you will recover it, dont worry

Thanks a lot for the e-mail and attachment with it. I found it quite useful.

Just installed it on my platform and will keep you posted on how I went.

thanks
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