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AUD/USD

  • #14,921
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:40pm Jan 31, 2010 5:40pm
Hi Thetopbloke!

Mate i have the same thought as you on this one.
and yes i think today we will see a rise and maybe after the announcement but then sell sell in for another long short .87 at least
  • #14,922
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:04pm Jan 31, 2010 7:04pm
Hi Guys,
I can remember having a sling shot, you know: the Y shaped piece of wood and long piece of elastic. You put in a stone and pulled and pulled and pulled and swoosh your stone took off and hit your target.
Well IMHO I believe the big boys have a sling shot. They want to use the AUD to make a profit one more time before the USD strengthens half way through the year. So, they have put the AUD in the elastic and are pulling and pulling, everything says the AUD should be going up but they are still pulling down and one of these days the big boys will jump on board and swoosh the AUD will go up and the big boys will be onboard making their profits. WHERE WILL YOU BE???
Lots of pips http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Peter-FX
  • #14,923
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:15pm Jan 31, 2010 7:15pm
I am raising my TP level on the aud shorts to 8764. I really hope that this moves down into the green lows during the London session on Monday as I want to be out of all contracts bar 1 in the next 24 hours.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #14,924
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:47pm Jan 31, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting amyc
I am raising my TP level on the aud shorts to 8764. I really hope that this moves down into the green lows during the London session on Monday as I want to be out of all contracts bar 1 in the next 24 hours.
I have 8791 as a major support then down to 8745. I am waiting to go long from 8791 the till tomorrow then short from 8950.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,925
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:53pm Jan 31, 2010 7:53pm
Westpac report ( extract):

Australian dollar

Further falls in US equities were sentiment rather than event related

. The S&P500 closed 1.0% lower. US data - GDP, consumer sentiment, and several regional PMI’s, all surprised on the upside, but could not dispel investors’ gloom. Unsubstantiated rumours circulated suggesting treasury head Geithner would resign, pressured by the anti-bank crusade. The S&P500 lost 3.7% overall in January. Commodities were lower, the CRB index down 0.7% to
levels last seen in October. Copper (-1.5%) and oil (-1.0%) made new 2010 lows, while gold consolidated (-0.5%). US treasury yields were lower across the curve, the 10yr shedding 5bp, on safe-haven and month-end buying.


Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,926
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:57pm Jan 31, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting tradoholic
I have 8791 as a major support then down to 8745. I am waiting to go long from 8791 the till tomorrow then short from 8950.
I also have 8790 as a major support and I will be taking profit there on the shorts I took today at 8870.
  • #14,927
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:46pm Jan 31, 2010 8:46pm
possible double bottom forming on the 15M charts. if its successful,should take us to the 200SMA at .8938. not sure if its realistic though to think of a bull run against the dollar right now
  • #14,928
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:56pm Jan 31, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
hi peetee09,
is it what you really believe or you are affected by Vincy EW analysis?
I have an earlier post with a more bullish pattern, with AUD being in wave 2 but it is negated if it breaks 0.8715. With the downturn starting again in global equities since that post (and I believe its a big move down) I can't see that AUD can keep going up. Vincy has pointed the way to a more complex correction which I think is panning out with RBA tomorrow likely to give short term boost (B), but continued weakenss in equities providing downward pressure (C) so this is preferred option now. The eventual wave five may fail if global equities continue downtrend
  • #14,929
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:27pm Jan 31, 2010 9:27pm
aussie d lookin weak on the weekly's..... monthly charts still 50 50.......h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weakly aussie d.gif Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie jp.gif Size: 61 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #14,930
  • Feb 1, 2010 1:58am Feb 1, 2010 1:58am
so quiet AUDUSD??

Long or Short? anybody?
  • #14,931
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:13am Feb 1, 2010 2:13am
Lookin at the attached chart I
am more in the view that Aud is goin down...
but always trade with a stop.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: awawwawawaw.JPG Size: 144 KB
  • #14,932
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:37am Feb 1, 2010 2:37am
need to be careful, could be in for a correction...
  • #14,933
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:58am Feb 1, 2010 3:58am
Quoting Marginal
so quiet AUDUSD??

Long or Short? anybody?
I went long at 0.8874 on Friday.

Originally I was only going to grab a quick profit and exit before the weekend.

Now i will be holding until at worst it hits 0.8732 then I will add to my position and keep my SL very tight.

Not what I planned on doing but that is the route I am taking.

The loss will hurt but it will be a manageable loss.

I hear so much about how the AUD/USD is going to take a big hit here in the near term. Don't ask me why but I think it has another good run left in it...at least.
  • #14,934
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:02am Feb 1, 2010 4:02am
My AUD last week analysis.

AUDUSD

Based on the previous analysis of 240 min chart, the closest target along the trend was Т1-0.8925 (Fig. 1).

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...0/image001.jpg

Fig. 1 – 240

The target was reached on Jan. 28, 2010, but the trade was not made due to a small estimated profit (Fig. 2).

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...0/image002.jpg
Fig. 2 – 240
  • #14,935
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:34am Feb 1, 2010 4:34am
Quoting yorygog
I went long at 0.8874 on Friday.

Originally I was only going to grab a quick profit and exit before the weekend.

Now i will be holding until at worst it hits 0.8732 then I will add to my position and keep my SL very tight.

Not what I planned on doing but that is the route I am taking.

The loss will hurt but it will be a manageable loss.

I hear so much about how the AUD/USD is going to take a big hit here in the near term. Don't ask me why but I think it has another good run left in it...at least.
you are baised due to your Long position , but hopefully for you SL at .8735 may hold. but keep your SL there , its never late to cut the loser and stick to your plan, if you are too confidence on another leg up, put a Pending Sell order at your SL (if you can hedge with your broker) then if it goes down you are managing the risk and when the trend turns up again close the short with some profit and hold the old long to TP
  • #14,936
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:44am Feb 1, 2010 4:44am
Geez I went away for a few days and had no net access and was not able to set a SL before I left.....just got back to see my current trades total are -450pipis
  • #14,937
  • Feb 1, 2010 4:57am Feb 1, 2010 4:57am
Quoting yorygog
I went long at 0.8874 on Friday.

Originally I was only going to grab a quick profit and exit before the weekend.

Now i will be holding until at worst it hits 0.8732 then I will add to my position and keep my SL very tight.

Not what I planned on doing but that is the route I am taking.

The loss will hurt but it will be a manageable loss.

I hear so much about how the AUD/USD is going to take a big hit here in the near term. Don't ask me why but I think it has another good run left in it...at least.
Don't ask you why? Is it because you don't know why? If so, it sounds like you're hoping. Adding to that position may be 'managable', but why would you want to take more of a loss, just because you can afford to?
  • #14,938
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:01am Feb 1, 2010 5:01am
Quoting john2301
Lookin at the attached chart I
am more in the view that Aud is goin down...
but always trade with a stop.

cheers
I agree, that's a clear trading channel if you place a trend line at the peaks. The trend is definitely down.
  • #14,939
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:04am Feb 1, 2010 5:04am
looks like PA is trying to head to the neckline of this double top on the daily charts which is around the .8750 range. i think if we make it there, we should see a pretty significant bounce, or some form of retracement, and then another huge leg down, ultimately leading to first .8560(200SMA), and then to the .8200 area. IMO...
  • #14,940
  • Feb 1, 2010 5:04am Feb 1, 2010 5:04am
Quoting Daytrader74
Geez I went away for a few days and had no net access and was not able to set a SL before I left.....just got back to see my current trades total are -450pipis
What???? You went away and expect everything to be fine without a SL?
Lessons learnt? No margin call?
Sorry to hear that man.
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