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Attachments: scooby-doo BOJ JPY pairs trading robot
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scooby-doo BOJ JPY pairs trading robot

  • #5,161
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:54am Jan 31, 2010 4:54am
Quoting arjuncora
manual..

i've been trolling around trying to look for a good s/r indicator to combine scoobs bots to. no luck so far
Try this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=204276

IMHO best SR indi around.
I incorporated into another of Steve's bots, see this post for details http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=225
  • #5,162
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:09am Jan 31, 2010 5:09am
Quoting arjuncora
manual..

i've been trolling around trying to look for a good s/r indicator to combine scoobs bots to. no luck so far
try this
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ROIAlert.ex4   6 KB | 354 downloads
  • #5,163
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:15am Jan 31, 2010 5:15am
Thx scoob. Is there a reason why you haven't added this onto any of your bots?
  • #5,164
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:22am Jan 31, 2010 5:22am
Quoting arjuncora
Thx scoob. Is there a reason why you haven't added this onto any of your bots?
People know my views on S/R in retail fx.

Like any indicator they only tell you what is happening on your broker's side and not what is happening at pending IB level.

But I guess you have to use something.

Scoobs.

PS. I am not saying you cant make money in retail fx but you cant see the big picture and is why many believe that its basically a coin toss at this level. All you can do is try to increase the odds in your favour.
  • #5,165
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:43am Jan 31, 2010 5:43am
The Yen is very strong at the moment and this is likely to continue so be careful with those BUY JPY baskets.

Any market retraces are going to be short lived or false.

Scoobs.
  • #5,166
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:09am Jan 31, 2010 8:09am
Quoting scooby-doo
PS. I am not saying you cant make money in retail fx but you cant see the big picture and is why many believe that its basically a coin toss at this level. All you can do is try to increase the odds in your favour.
This seems a little remark thrown in at the end but to me this is very concerning. Does everyone share Scoob's views around retail trading? Steve, could you please comment? I was thinking of giving up my day job to move into FX trading, but this is making me think twice. I have not made any money with any robot or manual trading (just lost a few quid), but always thought it was because i can't spend 5*8 hours a week on it. Am i wrong?

Fredella
  • #5,167
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:49am Jan 31, 2010 8:49am
Quoting Fredella
This seems a little remark thrown in at the end but to me this is very concerning. Does everyone share Scoob's views around retail trading? Steve, could you please comment? I was thinking of giving up my day job to move into FX trading, but this is making me think twice. I have not made any money with any robot or manual trading (just lost a few quid), but always thought it was because i can't spend 5*8 hours a week on it. Am i wrong?

Fredella
You have not made any money out of FX and you are thinking of giving up your day job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



The future does not look very good.



Scoobs.
  • #5,168
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:59am Jan 31, 2010 8:59am
Quoting scooby-doo
You have not made any money out of FX and you are thinking of giving up your day job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



The future does not look very good.



Scoobs.
Not tomorrow nor the week after but once i have an idea that it can work out. I guess you earn your commissions from trading the bank's money and with the information you get of interbank volumes. But apart from that, is there any robot that you have developed or using that is profitable for RETAIL (the ones you regularly publish seem not to). You say yourself it's a coin toss. So I'm just confused. The EA's Steve has kindly worked on might work fine but once in a while could fall into the trap of huge drawdowns as can be seen in backtests. I just need to understand your views better as right now they are not clear to me.
  • #5,169
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:21am Jan 31, 2010 9:21am
Quoting Fredella
Not tomorrow nor the week after but once i have an idea that it can work out. I guess you earn your commissions from trading the bank's money and with the information you get of interbank volumes. But apart from that, is there any robot that you have developed or using that is profitable for RETAIL (the ones you regularly publish seem not to). You say yourself it's a coin toss. So I'm just confused. The EA's Steve has kindly worked on might work fine but once in a while could fall into the trap of huge drawdowns as can be seen in backtests. I just...
There are many methods to making money in retail fx. The biggest problems are peoples expectations.

Most are over leveraged or using a lotsize way too high for their account size.

Example:

You have a 100K account and want to trade the XXXJPY pairs as a whole unit when they become oversold or overbought. You set your lotsize to accountbalance/50000 units and open 7 x 2.0 = 14.0 standard lots.

Immeadiately this is asking for trouble if there is any significant move on the Yen or Dollar and the DD will more than likely get you margin called.

Before you can get a TP you also need to overcome the combined spreads involved on this type of trading.

However, this does not mean you cannot do it. It just means you have to seriously think about risk/reward.

You may make many $$$ per week/month etc but it only takes one mistake on entering the market wrongly and you will crush your account.

Remember ALL indicators lag and not being able to see the big picture means you are partly trading blind.

If you had 3 indicators telling you to BUY a currency and unknown to you there was thousands of pending sell orders waiting then you would be entering the market wrongly through no fault of your own.

Its a bit like driving down a motorway at 100 MPH not knowing where the speed cameras are. You may get away with it but the odds are not on your side.

Scoobs.
  • #5,170
  • Jan 31, 2010 9:42am Jan 31, 2010 9:42am
Quoting scooby-doo
There are many methods to making money in retail fx. The biggest problems are peoples expectations.

Most are over leveraged or using a lotsize way too high for their account size.

Example:

You have a 100K account and want to trade the XXXJPY pairs as a whole unit when they become oversold or overbought. You set your lotsize to accountbalance/50000 units and open 7 x 2.0 = 14.0 standard lots.

Immeadiately this is asking for trouble if there is any significant move on the Yen or Dollar and the DD will more than likely get you margin called.

Before...
Thanks Scoobs for your highly appreciated insights. It seems to indicate to me we should stay in a trade as short as possible. It has been mentioned so many times but the value you keep adding to this thread and i'm sure others as well is enormous!
  • #5,171
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:10am Jan 31, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Fredella
Thanks Scoobs for your highly appreciated insights. It seems to indicate to me we should stay in a trade as short as possible. It has been mentioned so many times but the value you keep adding to this thread and i'm sure others as well is enormous!
Try the original BOJ intervention method and keep to the rules.

Scoobs.
  • #5,172
  • Jan 31, 2010 1:27pm Jan 31, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Try the original BOJ intervention method and keep to the rules.

Scoobs.
I will back this up. Those of us here whose accounts are slowly growing are enjoying this because we are trading the Original robot. There are others that look promising, but the Original is succeeding because it is trading a proven system. All the others are speculative to some degree.

Someone suggested to me both here and in a pm, that not allowing Original trades to remain open too long cuts losing baskets short - sorry but I cannot remember who this is.

I have adopted the suggestion of using mptm to close Original baskets if they are still open after two and a half hours. The only losing baskets I have endured recently have been wave 2 baskets; the mtpm suggestion cut the losses dramatically. I am considering incorporating this function within the robot.


  • #5,173
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:08pm Jan 31, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
I will back this up. Those of us here whose accounts are slowly growing are enjoying this because we are trading the Original robot. There are others that look promising, but the Original is succeeding because it is trading a proven system. All the others are speculative to some degree.

Someone suggested to me both here and in a pm, that not allowing Original trades to remain open too long cuts losing baskets short - sorry but I cannot remember who this is.

I have adopted the suggestion of using mptm to close Original baskets if they are still...
Following on.....

If anyone has done any analysis on the XXXJPY pairs will have quickly found out that BUY'S tend to close allot quicker than SELL's.

This means that buying against the trend is more profitable than selling with the trend.

How can that be I here people ask ?

Well, the answer is in the BOJ intervention policy document, if anyone actually read it completely.

The markets trully believe that the YEN is overvalued due too artificial daily manipulation!!!!!

Scoobs
  • #5,174
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:00pm Jan 31, 2010 3:00pm
A bit of Sunday free flow here I see.

I too believe that a time based exits has some merit and worthwhile exploring further.

Based on Scoobs last post (Yen skewed value due to daily manipulation) if we were to employ time based exits, I suggest based on the premise that the buy time be shorter than the sell time;

Buy close out time) 90 minute

Sell close out time) 150 minute.
  • #5,175
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:07pm Jan 31, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting scooby-doo
How can that be I here people ask ?

Well, the answer is in the BOJ intervention policy document, if anyone actually read it completely.
Hehe. Scoobs, reading it is one thing. Understanding a single word is something completely different. Anybody here who understood a word is already well ahead of me.

  • #5,176
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:20pm Jan 31, 2010 3:20pm
Quote
Based on Scoobs last post (Yen skewed value due to daily manipulation) if we were to employ time based exits, I suggest based on the premise that the buy time be shorter than the sell time;

1. I don't think we are talking about time based exits, rather setting a point at which we have very low expectation that the signal will result in the orders reaching our TP, and so instead of waiting, hoping for the best and then hours later seeing the basket crash into our 10% (or whatever) equity stop, we decide to pull the plug at that point.

2. I think Scooby's comments refer to the current market in which the Yen is very strong. I don't think this would also be the same if the Yen was on a par with most other currencies, or was generally weaker. For that reason I don't think we should have different time outs for buy and sell baskets.

3. I have been running this strategy on my FXDD demo using Steve's MPTM EA to do the work. The account would be back near break even now rather than 9% down if I have had this running right from the start of the year when there was a large hit.
  • #5,177
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:22pm Jan 31, 2010 3:22pm
@ Scooby

I was wondering how the 3TF robot did in the end? You said you would be testing it until the end of Jan.

I did check back here - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lenovos10e/3tf/14536 - but the promising results are no longer displayed.
  • #5,178
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:22pm Jan 31, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting getdown71
A bit of Sunday free flow here I see.

I too believe that a time based exits has some merit and worthwhile exploring further.

Based on Scoobs last post (Yen skewed value due to daily manipulation) if we were to employ time based exits, I suggest based on the premise that the buy time be shorter than the sell time;

Buy close out time) 90 minute

Sell close out time) 150 minute.
It hadn't occurred to me to make them separate figures. Good idea.

Poor octomanoak is already beginning to understand the thankless nature of writing user guides. Not to worry, octomanoak, yours really will not need a lot of updating. The Original bot will not require huge amounts of extra features, I promise.

  • #5,179
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:49pm Jan 31, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting Invisible
@ Scooby

I was wondering how the 3TF robot did in the end? You said you would be testing it until the end of Jan.

I did check back here - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lenovos10e/3tf/14536 - but the promising results are no longer displayed.
Not really been keeping up, have you? If you can't even be bothered to read Scoob's posts here, you really have problems.

Do take up golf rather than forex trading, won't you.

  • #5,180
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:26pm Jan 31, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting scooby-doo
The Yen is very strong at the moment and this is likely to continue so be careful with those BUY JPY baskets.

Any market retraces are going to be short lived or false.

Scoobs.
Do you think is a good idea to turn off buy actions onboj original and 24h robots?
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