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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #21
  • Jan 30, 2010 11:40am Jan 30, 2010 11:40am
If you have taken a short position from higher level you are a happy man by now (I actually recommended in this thread 3 weeks ago as you can see).
well , what I think now is somehow aggressive (you need a strong heart) I think we are completeing an ABCD pattern to be precise a
[.382/2.240] one
having said that the D point is gonna be completed sometime early this week around 1.3750 then we will head higher if I'm right.

for agressive trader (buy at 1.1375 SL=1.3600 as I think R now S at 1.3650 might hold)
for conservatice trader buy a break above 1.4050
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #22
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:36am Jan 31, 2010 2:36am
Hope you don't mind me butting in on this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #23
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:08am Jan 31, 2010 3:08am
Quoting shahab8b
According to COT report this week....
Thanks for teaching analysis of C.O.T
I could not find an actual chart representation like yours at the site you gave. Where can I find them or are they your own?
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #24
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:04am Jan 31, 2010 4:04am
When do you get the figure of "short EURUSD positions from 25,282 to 39,359" from? and how to get the COT Index? Thanks.

Following is from CME Short Format :

EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/26/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) OPEN INTEREST: 184,978
COMMITMENTS
33,106 72,645 652 107,572 66,224 141,330 139,521 43,648 45,457

CHANGES FROM 01/19/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 20,477)
-1,080 13,177 -1,120 27,079 6,452 24,879 18,509 -4,402 1,968

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
17.9 39.3 0.4 58.2 35.8 76.4 75.4 23.6 24.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 137)
37 49 10 29 32 73 84
  • #25
  • Edited 7:18am Jan 31, 2010 6:58am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting SamTIF
When do you get the figure of "short EURUSD positions from 25,282 to 39,359" from? and how to get the COT Index? Thanks.

.
COMMITMENTS
33,106 72,645 652 107,572 66,224 141,330 139,521 43,648 45,457

CHANGES FROM 01/19/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 20,477)
-1,080 13,177 -1,120 27,079 6,452 24,879 18,509 -4,402 1,968

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
17.9 39.3 0.4 58.2 35.8 76.4 75.4 23.6 24.6
..
Hi SamTIF,
look at this numbers at your table or click on this link http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
the fist one ,33,106 is the number of long contratcs in EURUSD
the 2nd one,72,645 ,is the number of short contracts
the 3rd one,-1,080 is the change from previous week in long contratcs
the 4th one, 13,177 is the change from previous week in short contratcs

now the calculation:
Net positions= Long-Short= 33,106-72,645= -39,539
the sign is negative means the market is net short EURUSD by -39,539 contratcs
for the previous week you have,
long=33,106+1080=34,186
short=72,645-13,177=59,468
net position in previous week= long-short=34,186-59,468= -25,282
mean the market was net short by -25,282 contracts

when I said they added to their short fro 25,282 to 39,539 I meant the net open position. hope it helps


as for the COT index, it is subjective, some people use 26 weeks or 52 ,I prefer 13 weeks,
there are lots of tools and website that help you can to calculate it based on the open interest difference
what I use is this website:
http://timingcharts.com/index.php
  • #26
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:02am Jan 31, 2010 7:02am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Thanks for teaching analysis of C.O.T
I could not find an actual chart representation like yours at the site you gave. Where can I find them or are they your own?
hi M.A.C.Doug,
you are welcome , I'd be happy to contribute something helpful
for charting I use this website ,its very user friendly, you need to work with the options you have and set the COT index on 13 weeks to get my chart, and look at large trader
http://timingcharts.com/index.php

cheers
  • #27
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:04am Jan 31, 2010 7:04am
Quoting deanbo
Hope you don't mind me butting in on this one.
hi deanbo
thanks for the chart but why didnt you drop some brief analysis of what is shown becuase I cant understand what was your idea.
  • #28
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:15am Jan 31, 2010 7:15am
first of all note the inverse price quotation here,
we have the chart of CHFUDS and long/short is inverese comparing to what you see at you forex platform

the large institute has reduced their net long CHF position (short USDCHF) from 13,971 to 5,705 contratcs.
the COT index is dropped 66 to 40.
the overall picture is they are betting less on CHF strenght comparing to the past, I think we can see higher USDCHF (lower CHFUDS in this chart).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #29
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:25am Jan 31, 2010 7:25am
Well, I missed the trian last week and to be precise I got burned at the last 2 hours of the market on Fri by probable SNB intervention.
for this week I'm waiting for a short trade on USDCHF coz the pattern is so pretty to be missed, as Jeffrey Kennedy says "
Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them."

I look to go short at 1.0700 at AB=CD , the pattern should be completed sometime around w/t this week,
the AB=CD here is a [.618/1.618]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30
  • Jan 31, 2010 7:53am Jan 31, 2010 7:53am
Quote
Hi SamTIF,
look at this numbers at your table or click on this link http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
the fist one ,33,106 is the number of long contratcs in EURUSD
the 2nd one,72,645 ,is the number of short contracts
the 3rd one,-1,080 is the change from previous week in long contratcs
the 4th one, 13,177...

Shahab8b,

Thank you for the very clear explaination.
  • #31
  • Jan 31, 2010 8:58am Jan 31, 2010 8:58am
Quoting shahab8b
about the USDX, I think the market is nervous , and everone fears the next big leg down for equities, which will be USD positive and bring a rally like Q3 2008,here I see lots of new foreclosure on commercial properties going on ,weak housing market and high rate of unemployment affect this country, I wont be suprise to see EURUSD at 1.25 before Q3 2010.
Thanks for your comments Shahab. It's happening a little faster than I anticipated. Thought I better update my fib on another chart. We've got 38.2% at 80.07.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I was saying on the EUR thread that the average yearly range for the E/U for the last 10 years (2000 to 2009) comes out at 2161 pips. If the high at 1.4577 is the high for the year then deducting 2161 pips gives us a low of 1.2416. Also, regarding equities, this article was definitely flashing a warning signal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0mN6g861SCI

Weekly round-up report attached for you as well. Good trades this week
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 290110_Financial_Markets_REVIEW.pdf   116 KB | 1,183 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #32
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:07am Jan 31, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Patience
Thanks for your comments Shahab. It's happening a little faster than I anticipated. Thought I better update my fib on another chart. We've got 38.2% at 80.07.

Attachment

I was saying on the EUR thread that the average yearly range for the E/U for the last 10 years (2000 to 2009) comes out at 2161 pips. If the high at 1.4577 is the high for the year then deducting 2161 pips gives us a low of 1.2416. Also, regarding equities, this article was definitely flashing a warning signal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0mN6g861SCI...
thanks patience for your invaluable attachment as always, do you think we may see some resistance on that long term MA that you have on your chart? I'm looking to trade agianst this trend sometime this week and I'm betting on my ab=cd pattern ,
btw , what do you think of Aussie? is she falling finally or not?
  • #33
  • Edited 12:15pm Jan 31, 2010 11:26am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
btw , what do you think of Aussie? is she falling finally or not?
Everything is pointing down for me. Chuck in the bearish sentiment on equities (and EUR etc) and I'm only going to be looking for and placing short positions. 200 MA on AUD daily is currently located at 0.8562. I think this is a good target for this week - well within average weekly range of 300 pips. I don't think the AUD rate announcement is going to make much difference. If they raise, it might initially spike up but then we'll probably read that there is concern in the market that the RBA are raising too fast considering any rate adjustments supposedly take 18 months to filter into the economy and if they don't raise, with this sentiment, look out below. I'll be selling any spike if there is any.

FXCM traders are confirming US$ strength as well. Too many long on AUD, NZD, EUR etc and they have gone long CAD and CHF so it's all lining up.

Are we going to get a 20% correction on S&P? That would take us to 920. Funnily enough I've got a gap on daily chart between 14/15 July. Closed at 905.82 on 14 July and opened at 910.13 on 15 July. Puks would kill me for talking about gaps Should be seeing a few whites of the eyes about then .... There is another gap on 1 April at 813.60 that was never filled

I see we've hit 200 MA on weekly EUR. Not sure if 200 MA on weekly USDX is going to stall PA.

I know, I know, I like to look at funny things but I'm not sure what it's going to take to turn this around at this moment so I'm going to go with the flow and hopefully won't get run over. NFP as well which is usually a funny week. May just stall middle of week and then get the fireworks on Friday.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #34
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:04pm Jan 31, 2010 5:04pm
G'day team,

First of all, nice thread.

I'd like to say something if I may.

I was long from .8920 but hedged at .8830 in anticipation of rate pause tomorrow.

Market has 60% priced in the rate rise and if RBA doesn't hike the rate (which IMHO they wont), look for a vertical move down towards .8560

I've learned from highly reliable sources that rate wont be hiked.

NAB has made a statement that they wont hike bank rates EVEN IF RBA hikes the rate tomorrow and that really does tell me something.

I am hoping to get a rally towards .8930 so that I can clear my trapped longs and then be nett short.

Cheers


Quoting Patience
Everything is pointing down for me. Chuck in the bearish sentiment on equities (and EUR etc) and I'm only going to be looking for and placing short positions. 200 MA on AUD daily is currently located at 0.8562. I think this is a good target for this week - well within average weekly range of 300 pips. I don't think the AUD rate announcement is going to make much difference. If they raise, it might initially spike up but then we'll probably read that there is concern in the market that the RBA are raising too fast considering any rate adjustments...
  • #35
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:26pm Jan 31, 2010 5:26pm
not a COT based trade but I'd like to share the idea here,

Long EURGBP at current level (.8685) , based on completed Bullish Gartley
[0.618/0.500/1.618] ,
TP=.9100
SL=..8600
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:37pm Jan 31, 2010 5:37pm
Very good thread, thanks Shahab8b, I have already tried to combine COT report with technical, I like your approach. I will visit often, keep it up
  • #37
  • Jan 31, 2010 5:40pm Jan 31, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting cesare76fx
Very good thread, thanks Shahab8b, I have already tried to combine COT report with technical, I like your approach. I will visit often, keep it up
thanx for the comments, you are welcome to post your analysis here
  • #38
  • Edited 7:13pm Jan 31, 2010 6:22pm | Edited 7:13pm
the large institute decrease their all time long psoitions during previous week, however the market is net long with 45,318 open contracts. (last week # was 62,851) ,please note that the extreme # was collected on 19th of Jan, which was just before the reversal,(3 weeks ago,I recommened here to take short side at the break of S at .9170)
the COT index for this week is 42 which is way below the extreme reading of the previous week (100).
I think considering the magnitude of the long positions ; S level at .87400 might hold for the time being ,however, looking at the chart one can suggest SL for lots of those long positions are placed below S at .87400. having said that the AUDUSD is so vulnerable to a drop and a break of S at ,87400 will cause a vertical move down till .8500 due to those SL taken out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #39
  • Jan 31, 2010 6:36pm Jan 31, 2010 6:36pm
Well market seems to have stabilised so far. US futures are green at the moment and what's open in Asia isn't sliding into the black hole so that's a good sign. Just flicking through my charts again, daily USDX is looking rather toppy.

Will see how London opens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-DAILY-1FEB.jpg Size: 155 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #40
  • Jan 31, 2010 6:42pm Jan 31, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting Patience
Well market seems to have stabilised so far. US futures are green at the moment and what's open in Asia isn't sliding into the black hole so that's a good sign. Just flicking through my charts again, daily USDX is looking rather toppy.

Will see how London opens.

Attachment
thanx for the charts patience,
have you look at my EURGBP bullish Gartley? I'm long that pair , RRR is good but I need to keep it for at least one week or two (if my sl is not taken out though)
btw you might want to consider my Long EURUSD suggestion at 1.3750 if you think USDindex is topping ;-)
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