Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 482 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,621
  • Edited 8:11pm Jan 29, 2010 7:49pm | Edited 8:11pm
I think it's reasonable to discuss that, and I do agree EURUSD is acting in Elliot fashion. I wholeheartedly agree, though, that Elliot is in the eye of the beholder. If one learns the rules and finds oneself amid a wave 3, then by all means hold on for the ride. Wave 5 is a delemma. A wave 5 extension can produce profit, but why hold onto that fearing a reversal? Move along to the next Wave 3 candidate........could it be, perhaps, USDCHF (longer term than above)???? OMG - what about USDJPY when it moves....is that going to be wave 3??? Is that weekly doji-esque harami off the 50 fibo the trigger we've been awaiting?? Perhaps I am not so dumb after all? Perhaps a buy stop at 91 is in order for those looking for momentum to recoup those lost pips from premature excitement??
  • #9,622
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:04pm Jan 29, 2010 8:04pm
Hmmm...what currency do USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY have in common? Hmmmmm
  • #9,623
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:07pm Jan 29, 2010 8:07pm
USDCAD failed to take out the S/R at 1.0750....darn it!.....wait...wait....convert that weekly candle chart to a line chart......oohhh!!
  • #9,624
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:27pm Jan 29, 2010 9:27pm
Range trading

From the posts on the thread and the PMs I have received, it seems a review of trading a range, consolidation or congestion is in order.

To all intents and purposes, a range, consolidation and congestion are the same – PRICE is contained within a range. For the purposes of this example, range will be used to describe the situation.

Let’s use EURJPY as our example.

FIRST and FOREMOST, we do not do anything any different – we trade using PASR – nothing more, nothing less.

First, we must recognize we are in a range – this should be pretty easy since we are “told” that markets trend maybe 15% to 30% of the time (this is subjective in itself as different “experts” have conflicting views on this).

Since we are simple people, we will make it simple for ourselves.

When PRICE stops making HHs and HLs or LLs and LHs, it can be said to be in a range.

However, it should be noted that PRICE will make HHs and HLs and LLs and LHs WITHIN the given range.

It should also be noted that a range is not determined by a set number of pips but rather by limitations of PRICE. This being the case, each range will be different and relative to the pair being traded.

On volatile pairs, it may not always be obvious from the Worker that PRICE is stuck in a range. As with everything we do in PASR, we must consult the higher time frames for direction. The BOSS sometimes identifies a trading range where it is not readily obvious on the Worker.

A quick eyeball of the EURJPY Worker around June 09 allows us to add a “loose” range of 127 to 138.50. This is confirmed in July and August and subsequently in October and again in November.

Unfortunately, range trading is not like the pinball/tennis video game you see where the ball moves to the top of the screen, bounces off it, goes to the bottom, bounces off it and oscillates up and down between these two “fixed” boundaries.

PRICE is being traded and manipulated by millions of traders all over the world who all have different ideas where PRICE should be and where it should go so, unlike the pinball/tennis ball, it is NOT in a straight line from top to bottom.

As for actually trading the range, we wait until we SEE PRICE at our boundaries and then, with PA, enter the appropriate trade.

Although we have our horizontal boundary lines for our range, we must always use the range extremes for our SL on our trades. If this is not obvious on the Worker, obtain this from the BOSS.

Managing the actual trade then becomes a matter of personal trading style. There are those who will hang on until PRICE, like the pinball/tennis ball, reaches the other boundary.

I don’t like trading ranges – it doesn’t suit my personality or style but I do it for cash flow. I need to be seeing profit or taking profit which, for me, is more difficult in a range than in a trend. I trade ranges with several positions taking profits and moving to BE as PRICE reaches Worker SR PRICE levels within the boundaries rather than holding on as I do when trend trading.

Going back to EURJPY, many thought PRICE had broken out below the range but it was only to the outer limits of the greater range. Correct SR identification would have a PRICE level at 125 which is the outer lower limit of the range and again a SL for a buy would be below the lowest low of that range.

I was going to go into more detail but became tired so I hope this is sufficient to help those needing help.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,625
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:01pm Jan 29, 2010 11:01pm
As requested in various wish lists, here is PASR EURUSD trade:



1We are still LONG in a trend
2BEEB is a warning to PROTECT PROFITS not go short
3Hammer tells us profit taking is finished and to resume LONG positions above the hammer high
4BUOB is another opportunity to add LONG in anticipation of a break out to new highs
5Shooting Star forms double top (“M”) and gives good R:R for a short, COUNTER TREND position
6BEEB straight into support BUT “5” confirmed as swing high
7Hammer at support – chance to resume LONG trend – buy above hammer high
8Cancelled hammer changing sentiment to bearish – sell order below low
9IB – sell order below low
102nd IB – sell order below low
11BEOB – sell order below low
12IB – sell order below low
13Doji – sell order below low
14Doji after 2 strong down bars – pull in SL to protect profits
15Weak hammer – pull in SL above doji
16IB – pull in SL above hammer
17BEOB straight into support – pull in SL above BEOB
18Large spinning top at support – pull in SL above spin top high
19BUEB confirming 18 as swing low – buy order above high with SL below 18 low. All short positions closed by high.
20Bond Shooting Star
21Shooting Star confirms weakness in buying
22Doji confirms 21 as swing high
23BUEB confirms 22 as swing low and shows buying strength. SL moved below 22 low
24Dark Cloud cover takes strength away from buyers
25BEEB IB (no strength) confirms 24 as swing high
26BUOB confirms buying strength.
27Confirms buying strength and confirms 26 as swing low. SL pulled in below low of 26
28Exhaustion doji – recognize possible wave 4 correction. Pull in SL below doji low
29Doji IB – pull in SL below doji low
30Buying strength resumed
31BEEB confirms 30 as swing high and resumption of down trend. Long position closed. Sell order below BEEB low
32Weak attempt at buying. Sell order below bar low
33Weak attempt at buying. Sell order below bar low
34Strong BEEB confirming 33 as swing high
35Bond hammer. Pull in SL below low of 32
36 Weak buy. Confirms 35 as swing low. Sell order below low of bar.
37Doji. Sell order below low of doji
38BEOB. Sell order below low of BEOB.
39Doji confirms 38 as swing high. Pull in SL above 38 high
40Hammer at support – end of move? Pull in SL above hammer high
41Selling strength but end of wave 5? Pull in SL above bar high
42Inverted hammer at support – end of move? Pull in SL above IH high

With anticipation of end of move, trail SL above each successive bar high until taken out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 34 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,626
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:16pm Jan 29, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting MetaBoyOne
Hello.I found very good thread and nice people here... Hard support and fib 50.(Fib 100 expansion in wave 4) What do you think about this setup ? I not comment because my English is bad.HCristea and Soso is my good friend.
Hello.I found very good thread and nice people here...

You may think different when you get on the wrong end of one of my posts!

Hard support and fib 50.(Fib 100 expansion in wave 4) What do you think about this setup ?

Looks to have found strong support

I not comment because my English is bad.

That's OK -my Romanian is even worse!

HCristea and Soso is my good friend.

Any friend of theirs is a friend of ours.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,627
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:23pm Jan 29, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Alexandra
USDCAD failed to take out the S/R at 1.0750....darn it!.....wait...wait....convert that weekly candle chart to a line chart......oohhh!!
Only temporary - on it's way to 1.08 before pulling in to 1.0975

Wait a minute - I see a hanging man - send for that Bones guy - he likes to sell them!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,628
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:27pm Jan 29, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting Alexandra
Hmmm...what currency do USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY have in common? Hmmmmm
Let's see:

Maple syrup, cheese and sushi so - South African Rand?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,629
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:36pm Jan 29, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting Alexandra
I think it's reasonable to discuss that, and I do agree EURUSD is acting in Elliot fashion. I wholeheartedly agree, though, that Elliot is in the eye of the beholder. If one learns the rules and finds oneself amid a wave 3, then by all means hold on for the ride. Wave 5 is a delemma. A wave 5 extension can produce profit, but why hold onto that fearing a reversal? Move along to the next Wave 3 candidate........could it be, perhaps, USDCHF (longer term than above)???? OMG - what about USDJPY when it moves....is that going to be wave 3??? Is that...
Move along to the next Wave 3 candidate........could it be, perhaps, USDCHF (longer term than above)???? OMG - what about USDJPY when it moves....is that going to be wave 3???

Sssssh - don't tell everybody! We'll end up as an EW thread!

Perhaps I am not so dumb after all?

Beauty and brains - a lethal combination - does my head in every time!

PS - Still waiting for your photo - Rumour has it that Christopher is salivating at the mouth at the thought of it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,630
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:52am Jan 30, 2010 2:52am
GBPCAD

Volunteer needed from one of the students on The Path to trade this LIVE with REAL money (not demo) as hcristea did with USDCAD.

To qualify, the student has to send me a screen shot of his live account with this order.

They must also post their PLAN for this trade and all entries, SLs, TPs etc., etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 30 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,631
  • Jan 30, 2010 3:22am Jan 30, 2010 3:22am
Hi everyone,
i'm still on 141 page of this tread and at the sart of the index.
I like to THANK Strat for this educational journey to Forex.
Is this offer to The Path of LEARNING still exist? I would like to participate
this group.

Thanks in advance
John
  • #9,632
  • Edited 5:27am Jan 30, 2010 5:25am | Edited 5:27am
Friday's Daily Ranges


29-Jan
GBPCAD 203
GBPJPY 202
GBPUSD 197
GBPAUD 180
EURJPY 167
GBPCHF 161
USDCHF 160
EURCAD 156
AUDJPY 146
CHFJPY 144
CADJPY 140
EURUSD 124
AUDUSD 121
NZDJPY 115
USDJPY 111
EURAUD 104
AUDCAD 102
AUDNZD 86
NZDUSD 74
USDCAD 71
EURGBP 60
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,633
  • Jan 30, 2010 5:29am Jan 30, 2010 5:29am
Quoting Epsilo
Hi everyone,
i'm still on 141 page of this tread and at the start of the index.
I like to THANK Strat for this educational journey to Forex.
Is this offer to The Path of LEARNING still exist? I would like to participate
this group.

Thanks in advance
John
Send a PM with your details to Naws and join in the fun!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,634
  • Jan 30, 2010 5:52am Jan 30, 2010 5:52am
Quoting strat
As requested in various wish lists, here is PASR EURUSD trade:



1We are still LONG in a trend
2BEEB is a warning to PROTECT PROFITS not go short
3Hammer tells us profit taking is finished and to resume LONG positions above the hammer high...
very very great post. thanks
  • #9,635
  • Jan 30, 2010 6:20am Jan 30, 2010 6:20am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
hi strat,

the EURUSD trade + comments contain VERY rich learning! thank you for making the effort and posting it!
i have already gone through it several times.... bar by bar "what would i have done?" and then "what would el strato have done?" it's a great way to learn PA!

i'd be keen to have a go at the GBPCAD trade, but i am traveling for business next week, so i won't be able to trade. however, i'd like to clearify something if that's ok.... would you please comment on my GBPCAD daily chart and the way i have drawn the TL/DSRI (based on price closes).

looking at this picture - break of the TL/DSRI plus rejection of support - would indicate a possible continuation of the uptrend. whereas your daily chart paints a more bearish picture.

BUT to be fair my monthly also shows a SS, so going short under its low would be the correct thing to do.

i guess my point is, i am getting mixed messages from my charts, and am wondering what i can improve in terms of my line-drawing or interpretation.

cheers
sid
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD daily.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD monthly.png Size: 46 KB
  • #9,636
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:39am Jan 30, 2010 7:39am
Hi all - just trying to get my head around all the information here and wondered if I could post some analysis of just one pair to see if I'm on the right lines. I looked at AUD/JPY at the monthly level (line chart) and marked obvious S/R, then changed to candles and amended the S/R to correspond to the appropriate open/close of candles - not sure at this point if I should be marking Highs/Lows as well (or instead). Then I moved to weekly and added some further lines in a different colour. Some of the lines were very close to round 'psych' numbers so I altered these to fit (was that the right thing to do?). Then I changed to the daily and did the same.

Now here's the analysis of the situation as my newbie brain grasps it :

The big boss chart shows price in an uptrend which has broken through a 50% fib retracement of the previous down trend (almost reaching 61%).

The boss shows an uptrend but there has been a break of a diagonal trend line in the last six days (should I be using diagonal trend lines with this method?).

On the daily I have S/R at 86.00 and another at 80.00. On the 29th price closed below the 80.00 (79.74 on my chart).

As far as I can see there is no obvious price action, suggesting that price could at this point go either way, so no trade.

If price continues down, the next S/R I have is at 76.50 which also corresponds to 38% Fib retracement on the big boss/boss so could be significant.

I'm sure I have missed loads but I would be grateful to know if I am at least following the right path.

Thanks

p.s. I too am interested in the "Path of Learning" - should I PM Naws too?
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,637
  • Jan 30, 2010 12:26pm Jan 30, 2010 12:26pm
Everyone must be out playing...
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #9,638
  • Jan 30, 2010 1:17pm Jan 30, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD

Volunteer needed from one of the students on The Path to trade this LIVE with REAL money (not demo) as hcristea did with USDCAD.

To qualify, the student has to send me a screen shot of his live account with this order.

They must also post their PLAN for this trade and all entries, SLs, TPs etc., etc.
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I would love to do this live trade but have no such pair on my Interbank platform. Bugger!

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,639
  • Jan 30, 2010 1:37pm Jan 30, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I would love to do this live trade but have no such pair on my Interbank platform. Bugger!

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
That's weird. I have it on one of my Interbank demo feeds. I guess they aren't offering it for real accounts . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #9,640
  • Jan 30, 2010 1:39pm Jan 30, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting gododdin
Hi all - just trying to get my head around all the information here and wondered if I could post some analysis of just one pair to see if I'm on the right lines. I looked at AUD/JPY at the monthly level (line chart) and marked obvious S/R, then changed to candles and amended the S/R to correspond to the appropriate open/close of candles - not sure at this point if I should be marking Highs/Lows as well (or instead). Then I moved to weekly and added some further lines in a different colour. Some of the lines were very close to round 'psych' numbers...
Hi Gododdinhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Welcome to the thread. You have arrived at the right place to hone you trading skills. However be prepared to put in the required amount of time to master the skills here as Strat and other tutors here will not give you much hope of getting things on the plate, you will get a "nudge" in the right direction - always, but be patient and learn and practice.

Register with Naws and follow the Path and you will become profitable.

With regard to your trade analysis it is wise to attach your chart to your post so we can comment on what you see, as not everyone trades all pairs you will get a comments from those that do or otherwise from one of our senior tutors - Strat ,Blackeagle, Alexandra, Nicola and others.

If you have read the posts that Blackeagle have posted on the SR lines you will know where your lines will be, with different platforms and feeds your SR lines might be different than mine although they will be close.

I personally do not trade this pair, so my comment here is that this pair has been trading in a range since last October, currently is approaching major SR at 0.79 so as we do not trade when price is within your SR lines we wait for PA when it reaches the SR line and then act or not.

I hope this helps.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
4 traders viewing now