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  • #14,881
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:59pm Jan 29, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting shahab8b
what if...
I love a long term chart like this because it doesn't look much like a big down trend going back a few years . Being an ex-executive in the insurance industry, we had calculations that generated a factor calculated into base premiums called On Level Premium Factors. Essentially, it would look at historical loss performance, project it forward into a percentage amount to be applied to current and future clients premiums. Even though only 10 percent of the customers have claims, a portion of everyone's premiums are calculated to keep reserves at the necessary levels to cover claims for the unlucky 10 percent.

The reason why I am telling you this is that in order to remain competitve, you had to throw out abnormal losses that could not be statistically validated with any frequency (One time events basically). As I look at 2008 on this chart, it makes me ponder on whether we see the action on 2008 on a repeatable basis, and if it can truly be used for future projections. Just run a retracement of the recovery, and you will get numbers even at 61.8% retracement that I can't see us hitting unless Australia sinks into the ocean altogether.
  • #14,882
  • Jan 29, 2010 3:02pm Jan 29, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Never give much thought to drought. There's always some drought somewhere in this country.

I would have thought more importantly that the volume of printing the USD would have a positive effect on the AUD, but it's not really coming out that way.

Strictly speaking about AUD/USD fundamentals, the USD has much more going for it. I don't care much for Australia or its dollar. I'm moving everything to the USD ASAP.
You crack me up. If you saw under the covers a little bit over here with the people out of work, banks not loaning moey, foreclosures, bankruptcies, etc, you might be more like me and start thinking about a Swiss Account
  • #14,883
  • Jan 29, 2010 3:07pm Jan 29, 2010 3:07pm
I know it sounds funny, but Queensland makes California look fiscally responsible. With unemployment #'s half of what they are in the US, Australians have the worst attitudes. Honestly, I am being biased, because I'm in the worst state, but they drunken, ignorant, nationalist, protectionist, communist white trash. I'd rather be in California. Contrasting my recent experience in both countries, I'm moving back to California and taking everything with me. This country is headed in the toilet, or as you might put it, sinking into the ocean.
  • #14,884
  • Edited 4:16pm Jan 29, 2010 3:57pm | Edited 4:16pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
I know it sounds funny, but Queensland makes California look fiscally responsible. With unemployment #'s half of what they are in the US, Australians have the worst attitudes. Honestly, I am being biased, because I'm in the worst state, but they drunken, ignorant, nationalist, protectionist, communist white trash. I'd rather be in California. Contrasting my recent experience in both countries, I'm moving back to California and taking everything with me. This country is headed in the toilet, or as you might put it, sinking into the ocean.
That is a strong statement. Whatever the country is, at the moment the stars are shining for it. The US will be going down with nothing to save it for the next 5 months. The banks are in a bad shape, and the govt has run out of money to help out. Even if they keep printing money, they wont be able to save it. I agree with your opinion of Qld, but is US or for that matter CA better? For decades US has been used to taking what is not theirs. Its people's IQ is amongst the lowest in the world. Crime rate? well lets not go there. Drugs? Abuse of all sorts? Suicide? Obesity? this list goes on and on. I live in Sydney and have an office in US, CA ( oragne county) and even though OC is one of the best parts of CA to live in, but my god I would never trade-in the security of this county, education standards for my kids, and social environment of Australia to that of America. You talked about white trash? Well next time you are sitting at a red light in Downtown LA, after dusk, leave your car doors unlocked, bring down your window, and talk into your iphone, showing your gold ring and Rolex watch if you dare. More than likely you will have a gun to your head, and striped. And more than likely it wont be a white trash. I will do the same here in Kings Cross, St Kilda, The valey, even in Redfern with no hesitation.
And as about this country going down in the ocean, one of the main characterstics of ocean is that it throws out all the rubish that gets thrown into it, gently in waves after waves.
So if you are packing and leaving to go there, well well well, all I can say is good luck mate!
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,885
  • Jan 29, 2010 4:14pm Jan 29, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
now what? is it a consolidation/continution pattern (like a flag) or we are looking at a topping activity?

we all have lots of indicators/fib/r/s line on our charts, just looking at the naked weekly charts, what are we looking at really? just compare the Aussie and Kiwi charts with Euro
comments welcome,
Hi Shahab,
I cant chart from this computer, but from your charts I can see the level 7660 looks like a destination within reach. Wouldnt you say so?
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,886
  • Jan 29, 2010 4:17pm Jan 29, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Ducci
I love a long term chart like this because it doesn't look much like a big down trend going back a few years . Being an ex-executive in the insurance industry, we had calculations that generated a factor calculated into base premiums called On Level Premium Factors. Essentially, it would look at historical loss performance, project it forward into a percentage amount to be applied to current and future clients premiums. Even though only 10 percent of the customers have claims, a portion of everyone's premiums are calculated to keep reserves at...
hi Ducci, I wonder what you mentioned includes something like a 'black swan" event. if that's the case why no big company such as AIG wasnt prepared for what happend in 2008 (an unlikly event).
btw it seems you are extremely experience in dealing with Odds and Probability, may I ask you if you come up with a high probability set up with good results in trading?
  • #14,887
  • Jan 29, 2010 4:48pm Jan 29, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
I cant chart from this computer, but from your charts I can see the level 7660 looks like a destination within reach. Wouldnt you say so?
Hi tradoholic,
you know the S is .8750 which is about 650 pips from the top, having said that a very fast move is on the card if it's broken to .8100.
but we have some serious S zone at .84750-8200 ,
I think it's gonna fall vertically (you can see in 4hr is accelarating already) till .8500, I will jump in any retracement when market opens, shorting against .8960 , look at DJI the same pattern, today GDP came better that expected and they just sold stocks at S now R touch, it means that whatever is the reason we are heading south fast for next couple of weeks
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  • #14,888
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:52pm Jan 29, 2010 6:52pm
tradoholic,

So you agree then that QLD is shit? As for drugs, in California I'm treated like an adult. I can walk into a store and buy them. As for downtown LA, why would you go to downtown LA at night? That's a silly loaded response. As for IQ, that's funny, because of anything going for California over all of Australia is the brain power.

In all seriousness, does the Labor party give license to Australians to act like morons? I was warned of the racism before I arrived here over seven years ago, and had never seen until recently, and it's every where and it's truly disgusting. So, like I said, I'm biased because I'm in QLD, but to defend King's Cross? Give me a break man.

Ever since Rudd was elected this place has gone further and further down the toilet. As for money, why would any large investor place there money in Australia? A high interest rate from the RBA is only one variable, and it's becoming a weaker and weaker variable. Jack it up to 17%, who cares? If the value of the AUD drops back to .65 you still get your ass handed to you.
  • #14,889
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:21am Jan 30, 2010 2:21am
Guys,
I usually trade USD against AUD and Euro. I wanted to check how commodity prices (or AUD/CAD) effect USD. I have a few questions. I am not looking at the charts, but looking for your common sense answers :-)

In recent months, Excessive spending (stimulus) and printing, bought USD down.

Interest rate was lowest--> money went into stock market
Interest rate was lowest--> money went into gold--> Gold price has peaked --> manufacturers stocked gold

  1. Now US economy is trying to come back in shape. GDP has risen, this week NFP is going to be better than last month's. Soon the interest rate will go up. So USD will go up as happened starting from last week and accelerated after the GDP results yesterday. So I beelive in the coming months, USD will strengthen and that wil bring the commodity (gold/oil) prices down. Right?

  1. My question is here. Obama pronounced that he wants to double US exports in 2 years or so. To do that, USD should be depreciated and not aporeciated as is happening now, so that US goods are cheaper to foreign currencies.

So I have two contradicting scenarios above. Any experts here, would you throw some light on what will happen based on these scenarios above? Will USD continue to climb up as commodity price goes down?
Will US produce it's goods in Asia at cheap price and export from there, so it is cheaper to buy from a foreign country than from strong USD? That means less jobs in US--> bad for US economy.

Thanks in advance!

  • #14,890
  • Jan 30, 2010 3:34am Jan 30, 2010 3:34am
I watched that speech and wondered the same thing.
To have lower prices, you must have lower costs, or you must be subsidized, either direct $ or tariffs on competition. Obama is a democrat, and they love unions. But, it's the unions which have killed US companies competitive abilities. So, in my opinion, it was more campaign bullshit. He's forgotten that he already won the election, and needs to address reality.
  • #14,891
  • Jan 30, 2010 3:50am Jan 30, 2010 3:50am
Well, this is my 1st message. Just to remind you of monday's RBA meeting, could trigger a short-covering ahead of rate hike (or not) announcement.
  • #14,892
  • Jan 30, 2010 5:22am Jan 30, 2010 5:22am
Quoting TheTopBloke
In all seriousness, does the Labor party give license to Australians to act like morons? I was warned of the racism before I arrived here over seven years ago, and had never seen until recently, and it's every where and it's truly disgusting.
That's quite shocking to read considering that I was contemplating moving from London to Queensland to get away from the racism, gang mentality, all too frequent teenage stabbings, high house prices, crappy weather, binge drinking mentality, grid-locked traffic, out of control teens .... (I won't go on anymore ). Three black marks against Queensland already - bad healthcare system/hospitals, crap transport/road system and now racism.

I did see something on Bloomberg about the Indian student attacks the other week although I think the latest attack was in Melbourne. I am aware that there is racism in most places but it is sad to see Australia going down this road and, from your post, has been for several years.

My brother was recently in California (but resides in Queensland most of the time now). He has been to CA several times over the last 10 years or so and resides for varying lengths of time picking up odds 'n sods for work. He couldn't get any work this time around and commented that even the locals were really stuggling and out of work. He said it was the worst he had ever seen it.

I better get the map out again .....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #14,893
  • Jan 30, 2010 5:35am Jan 30, 2010 5:35am
Daily H&S and EW scope

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Zoomed-in (daily)

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Zoomed-in (H4)
Broken resistance not yet retested as support (0.8500) would coincide with 138.2 fib extension from EW5 high to EWa low.

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  • #14,894
  • Edited 4:03pm Jan 30, 2010 2:42pm | Edited 4:03pm
Great charts Doblece. Thanks for posting
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,895
  • Jan 30, 2010 4:59pm Jan 30, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
tradoholic,

So you agree then that QLD is shit? As for drugs, in California I'm treated like an adult. I can walk into a store and buy them. As for downtown LA, why would you go to downtown LA at night? That's a silly loaded response. As for IQ, that's funny, because of anything going for California over all of Australia is the brain power.

In all seriousness, does the Labor party give license to Australians to act like morons? I was warned of the racism before I arrived here over seven years ago, and had never seen until recently, and it's...
We all have stories to share about good and bad of a place. But all in all, between all my friends who have moved from US to here, I havent seen one unhappy with the move. Sure its more relaxed laid back and slower pace, but thats what everybody wanted.

Back to the AU/USD topic, I think we have another week of fall in the Dow, which should bring down AUD ( risk aversion). RBA decision on Tuesday will probably slow down the rate of decline, but if they decide to hold rates, then I think .8690 will be broken this week.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,896
  • Jan 30, 2010 7:26pm Jan 30, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
I know it sounds funny, but Queensland makes California look fiscally responsible. With unemployment #'s half of what they are in the US, Australians have the worst attitudes. Honestly, I am being biased, because I'm in the worst state, but they drunken, ignorant, nationalist, protectionist, communist white trash. I'd rather be in California. Contrasting my recent experience in both countries, I'm moving back to California and taking everything with me. This country is headed in the toilet, or as you might put it, sinking into the ocean.
Charming, charming, charming! What a great idea for you to go back and live in the US, Australia will be so much better off for it.
  • #14,897
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:02am Jan 31, 2010 12:02am
You know what would be great? If you guys grew up and stopped bitching and started contributing ideas that pertain to the topic of this thread. If your confused, it is about trading AUD. If you want to go start a thread about yourselves, then go start a douche bag thread and jog off. Sorry for my language everyone else.
  • #14,898
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:39am Jan 31, 2010 12:39am
Quoting shahab8b
I think it's gonna fall vertically (you can see in 4hr is accelarating already) till .8500, I will jump in any retracement when market opens, shorting against .8960 , look at DJI the same pattern, today GDP came better that expected and they just sold stocks at S now R touch, it means that whatever is the reason we are heading south fast for next couple of weeks
I agree - I normally trade EUR/USD exclusively but I saw a better opportunity occuring on this pair and i have shifted my focus for a while. I live in Melbourne and I am aware that we have inflation on the rise and will almost definetly get a rate rise next meeting. Bernanke, on the other hands is saying he will keep rates flat for a long time - That means go long AUD/USD to me so I switched charts to have a look for a long entry. Instead I saw the shorting opportunity of the year! It looks to me like risk is going to dominate the market for the foreseeable future causing another bear market run on equities, commodities and this pair. Big problems in the Eurozone and uncertainty in China are the cause of the fear and I am going to aggressively trade the fallout on this pair
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #14,899
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:49am Jan 31, 2010 12:49am
This week I ll be waiting to see which way the rate rise will go before trading. From recent news it seems near certain we will see a .25% rise. If the rba doesn't move rates up it will be a surprise.
I noticed on thursday that the amount of long trades for the aud was up around 80% for the brokers I watch. Makes me think it was an added incentive for the market to move down and lap up those stop losses. But then maybe its me just being paranoid.
  • #14,900
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:12am Jan 31, 2010 2:12am
Potential EW count for AUD. RBA may save break of 0.8715 in ST but equities downturn may accelerate the downside
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Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I agree - I normally trade EUR/USD exclusively but I saw a better opportunity occuring on this pair and i have shifted my focus for a while. I live in Melbourne and I am aware that we have inflation on the rise and will almost definetly get a rate rise next meeting. Bernanke, on the other hands is saying he will keep rates flat for a long time - That means go long AUD/USD to me so I switched charts to have a look for a long entry. Instead I saw the shorting opportunity of the year! It looks to me like risk is going to dominate the market for the...
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