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AUD/USD

  • #14,861
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:58am Jan 29, 2010 2:58am
Quoting Clouds
well. jpy pairs go up and down lately. so it could be a swing. will set to BE once again.
sorry I meant long against USD or JPY, I know you got the drift though
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #14,862
  • Jan 29, 2010 3:04am Jan 29, 2010 3:04am
Quoting tradoholic
sorry I meant long against USD or JPY, I know you got the drift though
Hmmm, I'm long AUD/JPY SL/BE TP 88 - See you next weekend.
  • #14,863
  • Jan 29, 2010 3:30am Jan 29, 2010 3:30am
Thats a nice looking green candle on the 15min chart.
Anyone wishing to sell wallstreet warriors season 3 please pm me
  • #14,864
  • Jan 29, 2010 4:41am Jan 29, 2010 4:41am
Quoting tradoholic
sorry I meant long against USD or JPY, I know you got the drift though
i did when i read it... you need coffe and chocolate to bring you up we are all tired with you...
  • #14,865
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:09am Jan 29, 2010 9:09am
Quoting egkid
Why u want go against daily trend?
Quoting Ducci
Hey I am in on this downtrend right now, but there is nothing wrong with riding retracements also? I have this charted to possibly go to .8855, not sure that it will make it quite there, and I see another nice opportunity to ride this back up to 61.8% retracement. If more realistically, we hit around .8897, which also closes a Stochasic move, I see it retracing up to .8982. The question should be after such a long sustained down trend, how can you pass up a tracement? Odds are after a sustained daily trend like this one that we will see a decent...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post3411782
Hope now know what i mean i was feel comfortable and add to my positions because i go with the trend (Less trade Less risk)
But if u do good well that is great , It's just my rule and everyone has his own way to Read his chart and do his trade

GL ALL
Cya next week
  • #14,866
  • Jan 29, 2010 10:10am Jan 29, 2010 10:10am
Quoting egkid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post3411782
Hope now know what i mean i was feel comfortable and add to my positions because i go with the trend (Less trade Less risk)
But if u do good well that is great , It's just my rule and everyone has his own way to Read his chart and do his trade

GL ALL
Cya next week
I know and appreciate what you are saying. I totally enjoy this forum because of people like you with diverse opinions of things that I might be missing, and I learn something new every single day. I decided not to take that trade as you probably can see from other posts later, but I did call the uptrend close at .8970. I think even as slowly as it was moving that it went as high as .8961. I more wanted a retracement so we could have a better short today. I just hate channeling trends. Today, I waited to short until after the GDP anouncement, and I entered at .8916. I am being a little more cautious today because with the indications that I am looking at if it does bottom out there will defintely be a supply and demand correction. My TP is set at .8853 with an SL at .8973 where my 11 hour adjusting pivot sits right now.
  • #14,867
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:00am Jan 29, 2010 11:00am
Quoting AlexC
From Saxon,
See below. I thought it might help you in your Trent/Reversal decisions. It is CME's open interst on AUD (Options and Futures). If anyone needs help understanding what this means for AUD then shoot me a reply:

Attached Thumbnails http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264755540 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264755540...
Sorry for the late reply Alex and Elio,
I use this report a lot. It tells you basically the level of dsareement in the futures and options market. If a the forex market is trending and open interest is going up, then there is healthy disagreement going on and this disagreement should keep the trend going. If however, Open Interest drops, one side looks to be winning the battle and a reversal is near. Also, if a reversal does happen and open interst drops, this shows less disagreement about the direction of the market and the reversal is confirmed. The above show a change in open interest.
  • #14,868
  • Jan 29, 2010 11:01am Jan 29, 2010 11:01am
Also, here is the link to the above tables. I check it every day. People should be checking it more due to the recent market.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...olume_voi.html
  • #14,869
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:02pm Jan 29, 2010 12:02pm
Thanks Saxon.
Appreciate your reply.
  • #14,870
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:22pm Jan 29, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting egkid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post3411782
Hope now know what i mean i was feel comfortable and add to my positions because i go with the trend (Less trade Less risk)
But if u do good well that is great , It's just my rule and everyone has his own way to Read his chart and do his trade

GL ALL
Cya next week
You won't believe what I just did. I decided to actually TP my short at .8860 instead of .8858 because I was not liking how this trend is leveling out. Well I forgot about canceling my limit buy order at 58, and now I am in a long at .8858. I have been up as high as 7 PIP's so I might just let this one run a little with a tight SL. Now this one was an accident so don't give me a hard time . I set my TP for .8920.
  • #14,871
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:26pm Jan 29, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting Ducci
You won't believe what I just did. I decided to actually TP my short at .8860 instead of .8858 because I was not liking how this trend is leveling out. Well I forgot about canceling my limit buy order at 58, and now I am in a long at .8858. I have been up as high as 7 PIP's so I might just let this one run a little with a tight SL. Now this one was an accident so don't give me a hard time . I set my TP for .8920.
Well... Wish u all the best bro
  • #14,872
  • Jan 29, 2010 12:37pm Jan 29, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting egkid
Well... Wish u all the best bro
Well I am going to need it although I know that a real retracement is overdue . I just wouldn't have the guts to take it if I hadn't done it on accident. I could absolutely be wrong, but I do think that one is coming soon.
  • #14,873
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:03pm Jan 29, 2010 1:03pm
now what? is it a consolidation/continution pattern (like a flag) or we are looking at a topping activity?

we all have lots of indicators/fib/r/s line on our charts, just looking at the naked weekly charts, what are we looking at really? just compare the Aussie and Kiwi charts with Euro
comments welcome,
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  • #14,874
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:11pm Jan 29, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting Ducci
Well I am going to need it although I know that a real retracement is overdue . I just wouldn't have the guts to take it if I hadn't done it on accident. I could absolutely be wrong, but I do think that one is coming soon.
I had my TP for this latest downturn at a conservative .8858. Well I was defintely off as it stands now it went down to .8839, and I have a 3 day down trendline that this candle is bounces on right now at .8831 with an old line also at .8834. So on this accidentally executed long, what does everyone think: entry long .8858, TP .8920. We might as well have some fun dialogue with this boring day. It is really hard to call the market on a day like today with short term indicators so I would really like to hear some of your swing charting analysis. I changed my SL down to .8800 which is a risk of my profit today and some of yesterday. My estimate of the next retracement will be in about an hour to an hour and a half.
  • #14,875
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:29pm Jan 29, 2010 1:29pm
what if...
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  • #14,876
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:34pm Jan 29, 2010 1:34pm
IMHO, The AUD is going to take a big shit.

AUD strength depends on a number of factors that are becoming increasingly negative.

1) If RBA does raise rates in early Feb, that will be the fourth time in less than six months.
2) Australians hold more debt per capita then Americans.
3) China's stimulus is being reduced.
4) Gold is overbought.
5) Commodities prices are dropping.
6) Panic in the EU, with assurances of NO bailouts.
7) And we know from past experience, USD is the safe haven.

That's just a few fundamental issues going up against the AUD. If anyone has some positives I'd love the hear them.
  • #14,877
  • Jan 29, 2010 1:53pm Jan 29, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
IMHO, The AUD is going to take a big shit.

AUD strength depends on a number of factors that are becoming increasingly negative.

1) If RBA does raise rates in early Feb, that will be the fourth time in less than six months.
2) Australians hold more debt per capita then Americans.
3) China's stimulus is being reduced.
4) Gold is overbought.
5) Commodities prices are dropping.
6) Panic in the EU, with assurances of NO bailouts.
7) And we know from past experience, USD is the safe haven.

That's just a few fundamental issues going up against the...
Well I almost forgot that it is Friday, and I would have to hold this for the weekend so I plan to go ahead and take a small loss because there is no way that I am going to hold this one. I can't even imagine or venture to guess what kid of after hours activity will be sitting there waiting to print on Sunday night. Although if everyone agrees with you, they might try to drive it up at open? Anyway in regards to the RBA actions to deal with inflation, what do you foresee them doing with interest rates.
  • #14,878
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:13pm Jan 29, 2010 2:13pm
I gave this question some serious thought Ducci, and I must say it's a very tough call, but at the end of the day, the RBA bias will be toward a rate rise.
  • #14,879
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:26pm Jan 29, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting Ducci
Well I almost forgot that it is Friday, and I would have to hold this for the weekend so I plan to go ahead and take a small loss because there is no way that I am going to hold this one. I can't even imagine or venture to guess what kid of after hours activity will be sitting there waiting to print on Sunday night. Although if everyone agrees with you, they might try to drive it up at open? Anyway in regards to the RBA actions to deal with inflation, what do you foresee them doing with interest rates.
The reason why I am curious about your thoughts on them raising interest rates is because historically when Australia cut interest rates/cash rates from 17% to 4.75% from 1990 to 1994 it led to a sharp decline in the AUD/USD, but on the other side of the coin from 2000 to 2004, the US cut interest/cash rates and Australia increased interest/cash rates. It seems that when the differential gap increases so does the value of the Australian dollar.

How about the weather? You mention commodities, and I am really interested in how you see agriculture playing out since it accounts to close to 3% of the countries GDP. Droughts like the one in 2002 have highly impacted the currency. On the bright side, Australia recovers strongly after a drought for example 1982-1983 drought first subtracted then added 1 to 1.5 percentage points to growth.
  • #14,880
  • Jan 29, 2010 2:47pm Jan 29, 2010 2:47pm
Never give much thought to drought. There's always some drought somewhere in this country.

I would have thought more importantly that the volume of printing the USD would have a positive effect on the AUD, but it's not really coming out that way.

Strictly speaking about AUD/USD fundamentals, the USD has much more going for it. I don't care much for Australia or its dollar. I'm moving everything to the USD ASAP.
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