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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #53,321
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:40am Jan 29, 2010 6:40am
Quoting djmanu
Not soo hard
Yeh i guess theres always the traffic right there it would struggle quickly at ..
  • #53,322
  • Jan 29, 2010 6:47am Jan 29, 2010 6:47am
Quoting SeekingLight
I'm writing this because I suspect you've been psychologically lashed out at by your recent experience and are now accordingly showing a counter-reaction. And that in turn carries risk of shooting past the target of being aware to being over-aware, which may just cause you more problems from the other end of the spectrum again with the above mentioned risks("enemies of the state, errr, trade, everywhere!").
I think your analysis of my motives is spot on and very astute. It definitely gave me pause. So easy to fly from one side to another after a bad run.

And I agree that there is potential trading constipation if every bar low looks like trouble.

But it seem that Jim stresses both here and on PF, the importance of that first trouble area. It seems to be his main focus. In fact I'd say it's over 50% of what he says. The email sent out to PF members last night was another re-iteration. He talks of months without a loss, killing trades if they go into drawdown, partial profit at first target and then holding onto the rest forever. I guess once you perfect that system then your stop need never be at the other end of the bar so there's more profit potential that way. And with his "Where is Price Going?" series in PF he also seemed to be pushing people to identify the first area which is usually close.

Now I fully understand what you're saying, which is that being picky allows you to give your trades a little more room. Mike does this, I know you do, and it seems less stressful too. And no amount of tight trade management is an excuse to take a sub-par bar (thinking, oh well I am moving my stop so quickly that I can take a chance on this...been there, done that, got the scars to prove it). And of course price often bounces from first area to retest the entry so you could end up strangling one of those once-in-a-blue-moon A+++++ setups by going to BE after 20 pips and miss the runner.

Jim always says that with a big account, he only needs a couple of slam dunk 50 pip moves a month to make a very good living. So his focus becomes "don't lose money". Then he leaves half the position on to see if he can get some action on a runner. It's a nice compromise between cutting out losses and seeing the potential of long running trades.

I guess it's all just about finding what works for your personality and making all the pieces (selection, management, exits, frequency of opportunity) work for you. I know your focus is on identifying swing points, inter-market analysis, and so it becomes slightly different to just looking for big bars at big round numbers.

Mike's often said this is the hardest stage. You absolutely nailed where I am in your post in my PF journal. I think it's experimenting with a few styles to see what works. And not swinging too far from one side to the other because of some bad experiences. This is where it is hard because I am working out what fits me, rather than just coping the various styles available (James16, Jarroo, Mike, Rac, you etc). This is where the road must be walked alone, because all anyone can offer is how they see and trade the market.

Both approaches are valid I think. Whether you're Jarroo and you watch for a hard break and don't mess with the bar if it doesn't give you that, cutting out early. Or if you're Mike and are super picky thus allowing you to move your stops up slower than Jim does. And all approaches require pickiness to get them to work. I like the idea of Jarroo's free trade/DIBS style approach, but we'll see.

I'm enjoying the conversation and your thoughts, as always, Patrick. I took most of January off from posting (except in my PF journal) to give me focus, and I do want to post a little less in general. But these are stimulating conversations that get me thinking and I really appreciate your perspective.
  • #53,323
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:11am Jan 29, 2010 7:11am
Quoting SeekingLight
If I may add my own (still limited compared to decades+ real seniors) perspective:
While this certainly is true in a "potentially" way, if I really took this notion seriously, the only way I'd end up is being 100% completely paralyzed as I'd look at the chart and think "every nook and cranny may just contain that my-trade-destroying-counter-reaction".

While it's true that if you try and kick things off from the muck-middle of things any bump can derail you, to me the whole point of being ultra-picky to begin with has been to eliminate the constant...
Seeking, this is not intended for you, but thanks to your post, I finally have the courage to say my thoughts out loud in the thread.

So basically what we do is : wait for and pick a darn good setup with super confluence, and leave the stop on the opposite side of PA for room to breathe, I think it might be down to everyone's comfort level, and when you look at my journal, even I myself am comfortable this way, but this is actually the exact issue in which I'm fighting myself right now.

I'm trading 4H bars with some success and there are already more trades than I could ever get than 8 months in trading the daily bars, setups that jumps out, mediocre, or even downright ugly, these bars are just popping out of nowhere. But timeframes aside, since we're only talking about dailies, Jim's words keep repeating itself in my mind, and of course he's saying that it's just him... and we all know how long he has been in this business, he mentioned in the video that he refuse to trade like that (putting R/R before Capital preservation).

These are his exact words that plays every time I went to bed after I watch that Video, taken from the Rants and Charts Video :

"You small account holders, you gotta make a choice, you have to make a choice, if you small account holders are going to watch price reach your first support and resistance area, and leave your stops at losses, because the move between here and here is not enough money to make a difference to you, Stop Right Now. Because it's never going to work for you, you are practicing something that you are never in a million years gonna do, when you have an account where that move does means something to you, you are practicing useless skills, they're not gonna help you a bit"

He also says something of interesting statistical probability : the 1 in 10 trades that don't return to your BE price and take off, are going to happen at least once every 3 or 4 months, if you're picky, that means 4 or 5 trades a month.

Now I know it's down to everyone's comfort level for now, but personally, for me, I don't want to fail in this endeavor, simply because I can't afford to, God knows I've failed myself enough times already, and if I don't make it in trading, I don't think I'll ever going to get out of that hole, ever.

The main reasons I trade 4H is that I've failed so many times, I hunger for success, which 4H brings for me IF I pick my setups with strict rules, so I stayed at loosely placed stops, mainly because a psychological aspect, not healthy for my trading progress, if any.

That's why right now in order to accelerate the learning process on the quick BE trade, I'm looking to expand my markets to stocks, where there might be tons of setups everyday, I'm looking forward for that papertrading account

Just some rants, turns out I'm not very good at them, well, practice makes perfect I guess

Cheers Guys/Gals.

Marcel.
  • #53,324
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:21am Jan 29, 2010 7:21am
Quoting TiaForex

But it seem that Jim stresses both here and on PF, the importance of that first trouble area. It seems to be his main focus. In fact I'd say it's over 50% of what he says. The email sent out to PF members last night was another re-iteration. He talks of months without a loss, killing trades if they go into drawdown, partial profit at first target and then holding onto the rest forever.
Man I'm looking forward to be back in the PF, I want to do it like Jim, however hard that should/would be for me, but there's another question in my mind :

"When is the right time to kill a trade when it goes to drawdown the second our stop order gets filled?"

Jim says it's 30 pips roughly, but I've been thinking of using Fiber as the base of these 30 pips and putting ATR in play, thus the 30 hard pips becomes a dynamic "30 pips", but I know it's mainly Jim's experience. I once don't even bother with position sizes and simply put 30 pips stops to all my Daily bar trades, and then move them to breakeven when it reaches the first area of trouble, but that didn't end well for me though, although I've only tried it a few times.

However, while Jim is my idol and I really wanna be like him, there's one thing about trading that I've always remembered :

"What I want to do, and what I've found good at doing, are two very different things"

Initially said by the_wizard.

Cheers,

Marcel.
  • #53,325
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:30am Jan 29, 2010 7:30am
Quoting marcelnyo

Now I know it's down to everyone's comfort level for now, but personally, for me, I don't want to fail in this endeavor, simply because I can't afford to, God knows I've failed myself enough times already, and if I don't make it in trading, I don't think I'll ever going to get out of that hole, ever.

Marcel.
Ditto that.

Thats the exact same case with me, But if you think my opinion is something worth listening to (which i don't think so),

There is no Shortcut. Never try to push your learning curve cause if you will it will get longer and longer, and if you let things come to you won't take much long.
  • #53,326
  • Jan 29, 2010 7:52am Jan 29, 2010 7:52am
Quoting nasir.khan
ever used a line chart.

With the trend.
.
.
Remember that.
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  • #53,327
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:00am Jan 29, 2010 8:00am
I was stoped out on my cable short which i took last night.

Now continuing from a bit lower price.
.
And nothing less then 91.40 on UJ.
.
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  • #53,328
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:06am Jan 29, 2010 8:06am
Quoting nasir.khan
Ditto that.

Thats the exact same case with me, But if you think my opinion is something worth listening to (which i don't think so),

There is no Shortcut. Never try to push your learning curve cause if you will it will get longer and longer, and if you let things come to you won't take much long.
lol. and who am I not to heed the warnings of a market mover? for an underachiever, you set your standards pretty high nasir

now if I can only get that stop to BE.... EURGBP, GBPCHF... ugh...
  • #53,329
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:16am Jan 29, 2010 8:16am
Quoting marcelnyo
lol. and who am I not to heed the warnings of a market mover? for an underachiever, you set your standards pretty high nasir

now if I can only get that stop to BE.... EURGBP, GBPCHF... ugh...
lol.

Every time somebody mention GBPCHF i feel a pain (missed the trade in circle).

Hmmm moving your stop at BE that could be a conflict of interest cause it may pay a visit to my sell limits.
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  • #53,330
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:25am Jan 29, 2010 8:25am
When you put a pending order, do you put an expiry? For how long?
  • #53,331
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:27am Jan 29, 2010 8:27am
Quoting albertsy2
When you put a pending order, do you put an expiry? For how long?
I don't put any expiry. When i see price get far away from the order i delete them.
  • #53,332
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:28am Jan 29, 2010 8:28am
Quoting jarroo
1st target hit, 2nd break even. "Where going to need a bigger boat" to get where I would like to go. 129-130
Yes, likely headed to that area.

I was a buyer yesterday, all the way to 125.11.
It would be ultra nice for fiber to drop to 1.3850 and spring back.
This action would do nice things to yen...
will see.

enjoy the weekend.
  • #53,333
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:32am Jan 29, 2010 8:32am
Good discussion on moving stops. Once I'm in a trade I usually don't move my stop until price breaks well past the trouble zone. This is what happens when you break your own trading rules. I've already moved my stop. I should have slept in and let the trade manage itself.

Anyway, good discussion.
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  • #53,334
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:35am Jan 29, 2010 8:35am
Quoting lovejoy80
Last trade before bed...it's been avery busy long day!. Will leave this overnight together with pending order on GBP/CHF.
Cool Mark,
I'll wait a bit longer, you know where my orders are waiting....
If I miss it, so be it.
  • #53,335
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:39am Jan 29, 2010 8:39am
Quoting raczekfx
Cool Mark,
I'll wait a bit longer, you know where my orders are waiting....
If I miss it, so be it.
You read every post, i thought i got lucky when you answered me yesterday.

Thanks.
  • #53,336
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:45am Jan 29, 2010 8:45am
I'm going to update this trade (4hr BEOB on GBPCHF), I have moved my stops down to where you see on this chart (1.7050). When price hits the 1.6800 I'm taking half profit. Ignore the "pips to breakeven" thing on J16 EA... That has already been executed to 81 pips above entry.... just ignore it if you are confused Those of you who use that EA know what's up.
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #53,337
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:47am Jan 29, 2010 8:47am
this one was the 4hr pin on GBPCHF that I played on the demo account. S/L trailing manually....
Attached Image
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #53,338
  • Jan 29, 2010 8:53am Jan 29, 2010 8:53am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I'm going to update this trade (4hr BEOB on GBPCHF), I have moved my stops down to where you see on this chart (1.7050). When price hits the 1.6800 I'm taking half profit. Ignore the "pips to breakeven" thing on J16 EA... That has already been executed to 81 pips above entry.... just ignore it if you are confused Those of you who use that EA know what's up.
So how did u execute getting in at that great price ... i am really frustrated as i waited for the break, moved stop to BE too quickly and missed the 100+ run

Anyway it hasnt continued its run at all ...

Neeeexxxt !
  • #53,339
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:00am Jan 29, 2010 9:00am
Quoting raczekfx
Cool Mark,
I'll wait a bit longer, you know where my orders are waiting....
If I miss it, so be it.
Thanks, I sure do..well played on the EJ
  • #53,340
  • Jan 29, 2010 9:01am Jan 29, 2010 9:01am
Quoting pipmyride
So how did u execute getting in at that great price ... i am really frustrated as i waited for the break, moved stop to BE too quickly and missed the 100+ run

Neeeexxxt !
on the BEOB??? I played the break of the 4hr BEOB (it was a pinbar on the demo account).... on the 4hr BEOB I just sat there and watched price straddle my entry for a bit, then it finally broke down a bit... so I moved my S/L down to 1.7050.... unless I don't understand your question correctly...
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
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