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AUD/USD

  • #14,741
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:59pm Jan 27, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Clouds
just had a dream it was at .8650 hmm
Whatever turkey, It is only now that it looks like it is crossing so I am taking a long at .8955 if it crosses finger on trigger TP .89704.
  • #14,742
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:02pm Jan 27, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Ducci
Whatever turkey, It is only now that it looks like it is crossing so I am taking a long at .8955 if it crosses finger on trigger TP .89704.
Geeting close might go earlier then .8955, and looking at my retracements, I might shoot for .8990 TP.
  • #14,743
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:04pm Jan 27, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Ducci
Geeting close might go earlier then .8955, and looking at my retracements, I might shoot for .8990 TP.
Ok Clouds I am in at .8950, TP .8990, SL is set to withdrawl directly from your account
  • #14,744
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:07pm Jan 27, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting Ducci
Ok Clouds I am in at .8950, TP .8990, SL is set to withdrawl directly from your account
Ok. My SL is .8990
  • #14,745
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:23pm Jan 27, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting Clouds
Ok. My SL is .8990
Ok I reversed, and not sure that I am happy yet with that decision? Have not idea for a TP if I can even make one. My next Support Line is .8854? Have any better ones for me?
  • #14,746
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:25pm Jan 27, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting Ducci
Ok I reversed, and not sure that I am happy yet with that decision? Have not idea for a TP if I can even make one. My next Support Line is .8854? Have any better ones for me?
.65
  • #14,747
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:27pm Jan 27, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Ducci
Ok I reversed, and not sure that I am happy yet with that decision? Have not idea for a TP if I can even make one. My next Support Line is .8854? Have any better ones for me?
The news must have been really really good, don't know why this mornings news which was not good at all couldn't throw in a little retracement to keep my standard deviation logical The dollar index went way up.
  • #14,748
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:33pm Jan 27, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Clouds
.65
If I can hit that TP, I definitely owe you a beer if you are ever in Texas. My next resistance line for the dollar index is 78.96. What do you have on that one?
  • #14,749
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:33pm Jan 27, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Ducci
The news must have been really really good, don't know why this mornings news which was not good at all couldn't throw in a little retracement to keep my standard deviation logical The dollar index went way up.
This is risk aversion, same as last year, bad news is actually good for the dollar. bad for stocks.
  • #14,750
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:35pm Jan 27, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Ducci
If I can hit that TP, I definitely owe you a beer if you are ever in Texas. My next resistance line for the dollar index is 78.96. What do you have on that one?
warning, this is going to be fast. resistance/ support don't mean much now.
  • #14,751
  • Jan 27, 2010 2:04pm Jan 27, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Clouds
warning, this is going to be fast. resistance/ support don't mean much now.
Well of course after that mean green candle, I was second guessing that reversal, and I placed my SL .8990 if it happened to break through 61.8, and I am not convinced it won't. This can either mean one trade too many for me today, or a smart split second decision. I put in .8870 for TP to be above both of our lines. You know my Price extension line on this going south has 161.8 at .87782. That would sure be something else, but obviously not for a few days so not much help at this moment. I needed Gold all day and now it shows up. This one scares me because we ran in overbought for a good 4 plus hours so we were due for a long run.
  • #14,752
  • Jan 27, 2010 2:08pm Jan 27, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Ducci
Well of course after that mean green candle, I was second guessing that reversal, and I placed my SL .8990 if it happened to break through 61.8, and I am not convinced it won't....
surely aud/usd will go down, just let it mature , it's almost ripe
  • #14,753
  • Jan 27, 2010 2:43pm Jan 27, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting Clouds
surely aud/usd will go down, just let it mature , it's almost ripe
I hear ya, but supply and demand can be a powerful obsticale. I hope that you are right. I am just shocked that all of the other short supporters haven't chime in because when I have taken a long this past week, I definitely have received lots of feedback.
  • #14,754
  • Jan 27, 2010 2:46pm Jan 27, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Ducci
I hear ya, but supply and demand can be a powerful obsticale. I hope that you are right. I am just shocked that all of the other short supporters haven't chime in because when I have taken a long this past week, I definitely have received lots of feedback.
Ok. Pretend this is a 4HR chart. Would you be short/long and what would be your target?
Attached Image
  • #14,755
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:05pm Jan 27, 2010 3:05pm
Hi Clouds and Ducci,

What is your ideas this morning?

cheers
  • #14,756
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:09pm Jan 27, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Clouds and Ducci,

What is your ideas this morning?

cheers
I am hoping it is down from here. I am short from 0.8947 tp 0.8905 sl 0.89650

cheers
  • #14,757
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:33pm Jan 27, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Clouds
Ok. Pretend this is a 4HR chart. Would you be short/long and what would be your target?
Attachment
Ok, point taken, is this a March through today chart? Well okay so if this was a 4 hour chart. The best line I have that is a close Fib match is .8248 38.2% retracement, but I would anticipate some delay at .8777. So let's say that I am trading my normal 2 lots. I would probably since I am not targeting 61.8 which is a healthy .7562 (I have a good line at .7711 so it would be interesting to see if a longer time frame look was closer to that one), close my short position on one lot at .82572, and lock in profits on the second with a trailing stop and let it go. That is only if I have to do something in 4 hours, otherwise I would just target .7711. Now if we are truly in the midst of a strong reversal, we should see .8731 in an hour (or month if this is a 4 month chart). Keep in mind professor, I am a momentum trader so grade with a curve. Typically, I only target 7 to 10 PIP moves, but I have a mini-lot account for my wife that I have been branching out getting my toe in the water with some swing trades.
  • #14,758
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:45pm Jan 27, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Ducci
Ok, point taken, is this a March through today chart?...
I'm no professor. Btw, It's a weekly chart. The last down move from .98 to .65 happened relatively fast. "maybe" this one will.
  • #14,759
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:55pm Jan 27, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Clouds and Ducci,

What is your ideas this morning?

cheers
Well beware of longs using your 60 minute CCI, it is bobbing and weaving like crazy on longs, but after a retracement, it has been spot on for shorts where we are reloaded and the lines cross with at least your 20 line getting into the +100 area or better and coming back down. As for exits, I am just using my profit goal, applying it to the right ATR time frame chart , and running Fib's. I couldn't tell how I ended up with a short right now except that for the second time, my 60 min CCI lines crossed on a long in the right area, and it turned right back south in a couple of candles so beware it has biten off a chunk of a nice piece of my 56 PIP short I had earlier. I will wait until this one is done to fully assess the damage . My reversal cost me at least 12 alone.
  • #14,760
  • Jan 27, 2010 3:58pm Jan 27, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm no professor. Btw, It's a weekly chart. The last down move from .98 to .65 happened relatively fast. "maybe" this one will.
Interesting, matches a four month daily very close. I would be a very happy trader if that happened right now. except my TP is to high to get much . So how close would our targets etc be?
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