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Mechanical trend trading

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  • Post #61
  • Quote
  • Jan 24, 2010 2:01pm Jan 24, 2010 2:01pm
  •  kostas1
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: I know that I know nothing | 2,724 Posts
Quoting Paulus
Disliked
A note on trends

If you look at signal G there was no HH made so possible trend reversal and break we do not take this signal.Thumbs up was swing high thumbs down is where a swing high should of occured but didnt so the signal after this is ignored
Im looking at this to short cut all this so give me time
P
Ignored
Paulus,
Your charts although take time are extremely useful to us. Thanks and keep them coming when you have a chance...

Kostas.
  • Post #62
  • Quote
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:30pm Jan 24, 2010 3:30pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
To project TPs and SLs, this is one way of setting SLs and TPs. Measure the the last swing and then place it to where the price retraced. I will show you the 2nd way to set up the TPs/SLs on my next post. Guys this kind of projection is not alway 100%, to have higher accuracy make sure you place your TP 10-20 pips above the projection line.
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  • Post #63
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  • Jan 24, 2010 3:45pm Jan 24, 2010 3:45pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
The 2nd way which is my way(I don't like to measure, sometimes it is confusing to find the exact swing point) I just use the fib lines, this is widely used areas by the experienced traders as well.
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  • Post #64
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  • Jan 24, 2010 6:50pm Jan 24, 2010 6:50pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
First trade of the week I just took. This pair is trending down nicely and it is right at the spot that I like to see, that is why I took it. Lets see what happens, it is all up to the market from here on. I checked the 4 hr chart and it doesn't sit on any major support line, it should flow nicely.
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  • Post #65
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  • Jan 24, 2010 9:41pm Jan 24, 2010 9:41pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
I have extended the SL to 9110 on that trade which is the next high, it might find a resistance there and I am still under the 1:1 RR, which is fine. Or we could see the price retrace to 9150 area and that is with higher 4hr time frame.
  • Post #66
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  • Jan 25, 2010 8:27am Jan 25, 2010 8:27am
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
trades so far shown on charts

USDCHF +43 and just triggered short entry S and TP can be seen

USDCAD long from 1.0536 TP and SL can be seen

EURUSD +48 and very close to another long

GBPJPY loss of 26 pips waiting for long signal
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  • Post #67
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:31am Jan 25, 2010 8:31am
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
EURUSD just triggered long we made a higher high so trade is valid for me

As always RR 3:1


P
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  • Post #68
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  • Jan 25, 2010 8:38am Jan 25, 2010 8:38am
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
here is the 5min version of the above signal
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  • Post #69
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  • Jan 25, 2010 10:37am Jan 25, 2010 10:37am
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
Update

USDCHF +43 and short from 1.0407 SL 1.0424 TP 1.0366

USDCAD +64

EURUSD +48 and long from 1.4144 SL 1.4125 TP 1.4193

GBPJPY -26 pips

EURGBP long from 0.8742 SL 0.8728 TP 0.8779

p
  • Post #70
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  • Jan 25, 2010 5:40pm Jan 25, 2010 5:40pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
Hi guys, here is a trade that I took about 30 min ago with eur/jpy. As I have mentioned prev I always go with round #s and this is between the round#s, so I am taking it with my demo account.
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  • Post #71
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  • Jan 25, 2010 5:47pm Jan 25, 2010 5:47pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
This is my seond trade that I took with chf/jpy, the signal wasn't near the the round# just like the above so I am also with demo on this one.

To update my first trade aud/usd that I took yesterday, I am still holding it, it is not functioning as I have planed it but I am hoping the best for that one.
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  • Post #72
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  • Jan 25, 2010 8:37pm Jan 25, 2010 8:37pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
loss on those 2 jpy pairs eur/jpy and chf/jpy, good thing those trades were with demo. I don't trust trades if they don't meet round #s.
  • Post #73
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2010 9:46pm Jan 25, 2010 9:46pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
I have posted this setup last friday with my pending orders. This one triggered and I just noticed now, it is one of my 5 setups that I follow. The price is on a round # and I am taking it live. Lets hope for the best. All the elements are there to take this trade.
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  • Post #74
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  • Jan 25, 2010 11:22pm Jan 25, 2010 11:22pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
I have closed my aud/usd trade that I took yesterday and closed it for 32 pips, the market is ranging and I don't want to take the chance any more on that one. this pair didn't continue its trend. I did risk 55 pips and I was lucky the price came back again.
  • Post #75
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2010 11:39pm Jan 25, 2010 11:39pm
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
I have closed my nzd/jpy trade for 70 pips, I got what I was looking for, it will retrace and I will look for another opportunity. On this one I should have opened 2 entries, because it was a 4hr setup which has more room for movement, close one and ride the 2nd entry as much as possible. Too bad..
  • Post #76
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2010 3:01am Jan 26, 2010 3:01am
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
Well done fed your really cracking on with it..

You have a very good style you could easily open your own thread on this and get a huge following.

Its good to see charts with just price action..I think you should write a PDF document on your 5 set ups with chart examples etc..more and more traders are steering away from indicators

--------------------------------------------------------------

Update

USDCHF +43 and short from 1.0407 SL 1.0424 TP 1.0366..this turned into a loss of 20 pips after gaining 33 pips on the position but considering the winner being twice the size Im happy with the result

USDCAD +64

EURUSD +48 and long from 1.4144 SL 1.4125 TP 1.4193 this turned into a loss of 22 pips after gaining 38 pips on the position but considering the winner being twice the size Im happy with the result

GBPJPY -26 pips

EURGBP +33 pips

Signals so far today

EURJPY +148 pips chart posted

GBPUSD long from 1.6196 TP 1.6269 SL 1.6168 chart posted

p
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  • Post #77
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2010 8:22am Jan 26, 2010 8:22am
  •  Cain_
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
Hi Paulus! I allways traded in a similar way, the trend is my friend!

How can I make my fibs look like that? Sorry about the dumb question...





Best regards, Cain
  • Post #78
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2010 10:51am Jan 26, 2010 10:51am
  •  Jaula
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
Expecting bounce off the trend line, if there's a significant break going up, going long is a good idea. On the breaking of the trend line we could be a bit more cautious by placing our stop on the other side of the break with say 10 pips breathing room. If it hits SL then trade the bounce. Bounces with a more larger SL. How would you go about it Paulus?
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  • Post #79
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2010 11:27am Jan 26, 2010 11:27am
  •  fed
  • | Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Member | 613 Posts
Quoting Paulus
Disliked
Well done fed your really cracking on with it..

You have a very good style you could easily open your own thread on this and get a huge following.

Its good to see charts with just price action..I think you should write a PDF document on your 5 set ups with chart examples etc..more and more traders are steering away from indicators

--------------------------------------------------------------

Update

USDCHF +43 and short from 1.0407 SL 1.0424 TP 1.0366..this turned into a loss of 20 pips after...
Ignored

thanks budy, i think i will do that then.
  • Post #80
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:03pm Jan 26, 2010 12:03pm
  •  Paulus
  • Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 2,600 Posts
Jaula Hi

I would go about it by only trading the trend I see which is down,as you can see the trend started nicely late DEC so for me to draw a long trend I would need the break up at B to be higher than C with a higher low put in..for me atm the down trend is in place

On EURCHF we had the entry and I identify point A as the last swing low which automatically gives me a SL at 1.4752 which is 1/3 of my TP so if all goes well and we win its a RR of 3:1

To get the fibs looking like mine you need to alter the Fibo levels as shown

Cheers

P
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