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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,461
  • Jan 24, 2010 4:10pm Jan 24, 2010 4:10pm
Hello – my first post.

I wanted to thank NightMoves for championing this method and his patience in outlining the details. It is an excellent learning place for beginners looking for a good method and for experience traders to add to their arsenal.

And similarly, a big “thank you” to all the regular contributors who have made this a success.

As I understand it, the entry has been covered many times with the many different nuances but I would like to ask if you have explored different ways of exit? I think you mentioned 2 ways in this thread – at a RN and measuring a previous swing (and using that as a target)

Since we are trading trends (sometime strong trends), would targets be the best option or would other exit methods yield better results? What is your experience?
  • #2,462
  • Jan 24, 2010 5:53pm Jan 24, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting laimonk
Hello – my first post.

I wanted to thank NightMoves for championing this method and his patience in outlining the details. It is an excellent learning place for beginners looking for a good method and for experience traders to add to their arsenal.

And similarly, a big “thank you” to all the regular contributors who have made this a success.

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]As I understand it, the entry has been...

PRICE TARGETS DETERMINANTS:

RN, ADR, previous swing, price pattern projection
  • #2,463
  • Edited 8:55pm Jan 24, 2010 8:25pm | Edited 8:55pm
Quoting Custos
here is an example
This is my alternate entry method. If I see the break of a good TL (not all TL's are created equal), then I will look to sell the pullback to an area of former support. I will only do this at the last area of support, and if it greatly increases by R:R. My initial SL is above that previous high.
Here is an example.
Not only does this allow you to position with less risk, but it also allows you to move the SL pretty quickly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-01-24_2154.png Size: 91 KB
  • #2,464
  • Jan 24, 2010 10:14pm Jan 24, 2010 10:14pm
BULLISH formation setup in EUR/AUD. Keep in mind that we have orange-labeled EUR news in about 3hours time. ADR = 123.

Anyways, EUR/AUD is setting up for a bullish upmove in the 1hr/15mins time frame. Naturally, since this is right below the RN, i will wait for a triple bottom formation /or a breakout above the rnd #, and a solid retest of the rnd # and enter on continuation. Anyways, here is the chart. the first one is the 1hr chart.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264392675



the second one is the 15mins trigger chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264392688
  • #2,465
  • Jan 25, 2010 1:52am Jan 25, 2010 1:52am
Quoting EntropyLad
BULLISH formation setup in EUR/AUD. Keep in mind that we have orange-labeled EUR news in about 3hours time. ADR = 123.

Anyways, EUR/AUD is setting up for a bullish upmove in the 1hr/15mins time frame....
Well, it seems that the last line of defense, the 61% fib level on EUR/AUD, has been rudely disrespected. Nullifying the setup
Anyways, the AUD/NZD(long; 1hr/15mins), NZD/CAD(short; H4/1hr ), and the CADJPY(short; 1hr/15mins) are setting up. The AUD has bank holiday today too, that is another thing to consider. HECTOR recommend against trading a currency with BANK HOLIDAY.

On another news, the USDJPY almost approach my BE+1 point of 90.39. if that triggers, i will only have banked 1/3rd +50pips. Anyways.....
  • #2,466
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:42am Jan 25, 2010 4:42am
Quoting EntropyLad
Well, it seems that the last line of defense, the 61% fib level on EUR/AUD, has been rudely disrespected. Nullifying the setup
Anyways, the AUD/NZD(long; 1hr/15mins), NZD/CAD(short; H4/1hr ), and the CADJPY(short; 1hr/15mins) are setting up. The AUD has bank holiday today too, that is another thing to consider. HECTOR recommend against trading a currency with BANK HOLIDAY.

On another news, the USDJPY almost approach my BE+1 point of 90.39. if that triggers, i will only have banked 1/3rd +50pips. Anyways.....
Bullish EUR/GBP(30mins/5mins) is setting up.
  • #2,467
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:03am Jan 25, 2010 7:03am
Hello NightMoves, Custos and Entropy Lad et al,
Thanks for starting this thread NightMoves, and to all of you for the education you have provided.
Have arrived here via Jacko and DanUK threads.
Have spent weekend reading and watching Hector's chapter 1, and have read about 1/4 of this thread so far. I hope to become proficient in the method and contribute to the thread.
Re EG, Entropy Lad: good cases for entry on H4 and H1 I think, but in opposite directions.
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #2,468
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:32am Jan 25, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Kanderpro
Hello NightMoves, Custos and Entropy Lad et al,
Thanks for starting this thread NightMoves, and to all of you for the education you have provided.
Have arrived here via Jacko and DanUK threads.
Have spent weekend reading and watching Hector's chapter 1, and have read about 1/4 of this thread so far. I hope to become proficient in the method and contribute to the thread.
Re EG, Entropy Lad: good cases for entry on H4 and H1 I think, but in opposite directions.
Kan
yeah, I like jacko's style too. It's very simple, that's actually where I got my touch trade entry strategy from. And DanUK has some pretty impressive results using jacko's method.
I am sure you get good results with this method here in this thread pretty fast. It's a very good and logical approach.
  • #2,469
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:34am Jan 25, 2010 7:34am
Quoting EntropyLad
Bullish EUR/GBP(30mins/5mins) is setting up.
I hope you were aware of the time. london was on lunch at that time. and right now it's the ny session. might become a risky trade.
  • #2,470
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:48am Jan 25, 2010 7:48am
I don't know what the expectations are for the USD news at 1500 GMT.
Is ECad going to break 1.50 "by proxy" when /if the news takes UCad through 1.06? Does that happen / are they linked like that?
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #2,471
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:49am Jan 25, 2010 7:49am
eur/usd is getting ready for a breakout I think. Attached is the h4 setup chart. I think the news in an hour for usd will make that thing move.
Only worry I have is not getting filled when the news come out, and I would have liked to see the breakout happening during london, but since it's a setup based on the h4, I don't worry too much when it triggers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h4 25.1.2010.gif Size: 73 KB
  • #2,472
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:53am Jan 25, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Custos
I was thinking of a more low-risk entry using the...
Now were talking. This is what i meant when i said I didn't always agree with the people in this thread.

This idea of entry is more my cup of tea.

I do not agree with your money management but not for the reasons Entropylad pointed out.

Quoting EntropyLad
[b]CUSTOS...
This must have been some work to make this post, good job.

However, I agree with Custos that looking for top/bottom is not that bad of an idea. It doesn't matter if your looking for top/bottom or waiting for a break out. you're always trying to predict where the market is going.

The conservative way may have better odds of succeeding but the more aggressive way clearly has higher profit margins.

I would never change my money management on a trade like that. Which means 5% stays 5%. My stop loss will be a low number which makes my pips worth triple or more in some cases. RR 1:4 or 1:5

Even hector states that you could trade his system like that if being aggressive is more your style

the 1h 11am gmt candle cad/jpy is a perfect example of how that could work. I happen to be in that trade. sadly enough I got in late but still cruising on 30+ pips
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,473
  • Jan 25, 2010 7:58am Jan 25, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Kanderpro
I don't know what the expectations are for the USD news at 1500 GMT.
Is ECad going to break 1.50 "by proxy" when /if the news takes UCad through 1.06? Does that happen / are they linked like that?
Kan
they are linked, but in general, if there is news coming out for usd, only usd pairs will move, except it's really big like interest rate cuts or something like that.
I would only recommend you trading news, when you have already a technical setup, but then be very careful, cause you might not get filled where you wanna get filled (fast market).
  • #2,474
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:01am Jan 25, 2010 8:01am
Hi guys and gals.

Anybody watching the gbp/usd 1h setup chart?

Looks like its setting up slowly but surely for a continuation of downtrend.

im still fairly new with this method. I understand (sort of) that you take into account adr proyections, specially on shorter TF´s such as 1h and below...

cheers.

pip
  • #2,475
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:11am Jan 25, 2010 8:11am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi guys and gals.

Anybody watching the gbp/usd 1h setup chart?

Looks like its setting up slowly but surely for a continuation of downtrend.

im still fairly new with this method. I understand (sort of) that you take into account adr proyections, specially on shorter TF´s such as 1h and below...

cheers.

pip
hm, I just see that one ranging, and from below a trendline is coming. Just very muddy that pair for the moment. At least my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd d1 25.1.2010.gif Size: 62 KB
  • #2,476
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:14am Jan 25, 2010 8:14am
Quoting laimonk
Hello – my first post.

I wanted to thank NightMoves for championing this method and his patience in outlining the details. It is an excellent learning place for beginners looking for a good method and for experience traders to add to their arsenal.

And similarly, a big “thank you” to all the regular contributors who have made this a success.

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]As I understand it, the...
Hi Laimonk,
The targets are set according to how you are trading, if you are trading long term then the normal major S/R levels apply if you are intraday trading, then the targets are set a little different.

What we use is the "Average Daily Range" or ADR of the pair, Round numbers (RN), and the previous swing lows and highs. For example of an intraday trade, suppose we are looking at a short position entry, we would look at at how far the pair has moved in the direction of the trend for the current day and we could base our exit based on how mmany pips are left on the ADR, if the pair has a current ADR of 150 pips and has already moved 75 pips in the direction of the trend then we would look for an exit target of around 75 pips in our favor, if there is an RN between our 75 pip target and our entry price say 10 to 15 pips from the 75 pip target then would look to take the exit at the RN or in that area. Usually a handfull pips shy of the target just in case it does not quite reach the target. Also Price pattern projections are used and usually will require the trade to run for a couple of days to reach that target.


If you are long term trading then the ADR does need to be used and you set your targets using the normal long term Support and resistance methods.

--NM
  • #2,477
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:17am Jan 25, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi guys and gals.

Anybody watching the gbp/usd 1h setup chart?

Looks like its setting up slowly but surely for a continuation of downtrend.

im still fairly new with this method. I understand (sort of) that you take into account adr proyections, specially on shorter TF´s such as 1h and below...

cheers.

pip
I don't really like it. Did you check the daily tf?

I don't tell you what I see so you can look yourself :-)
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,478
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:22am Jan 25, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Custos
hm, I just see that one ranging, and from below a trendline is coming. Just very muddy that pair for the moment. At least my opinion.
I see your point of view

This is how im personally seeing it right now....

I could be wrong but its what im seeing at the moment.

cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1h.png Size: 44 KB
  • #2,479
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:26am Jan 25, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Custos
hm, I just see that one ranging, and from below a trendline is coming. Just very muddy that pair for the moment. At least my opinion.
I agree with you Custos, that pair right now imo is not a pair to trade at the moment, it is on a pretty big brush pile and its best not to tangled up in that brush, a person could get his eye poked out playing there...

--NM
  • #2,480
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:28am Jan 25, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Pipalicious
I see your point of view

This is how im personally seeing it right now....

I could be wrong but its what im seeing at the moment.

cheers.
Pipalicious....

I'm watching the same setup. Housing numbers come out in the US in about 30 minutes so I'm sitting on the sidelines for now.
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