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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,441
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:04pm Jan 23, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting soso
Nice one hcristea, once again it proves how reliable are Weekly & Monthly SR levels.

P.S. Before completely cornering the bulls I would like to see the ball back down a little for us late comers.
Yes, they are, as long as you keep your chart clean (major ones).

Don't worry, if buyers are strong enough, you'll have your opportunity after breaking 1.0700 major.
  • #9,442
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:10pm Jan 23, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting mstandifer
Noted. Poor wording again on my part. Do you see any validity to an internal path within a range such as I have shown with those lines? I don't know what else to call them but I see them often...it's almost as if they were non-horizontal SR lines...not quite DSRI. I realize they may be old DSRI but they still show a path to me.

-m
If you are talking about channels, and if price does not respect it in several occasions, its importance lessens. But, if you are talking about non-horizontal SR lines, then please check my GBPCHF chart. I use them as long as they are well respected, but they are rare, in my experience.
  • #9,443
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:14pm Jan 23, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting Naws
this seems like a very tempting trade especially if you traded off the first BEEB

i feel its a little late to enter now because i think that a safe SL should be placed above the resistance of 1.7000 which would give a crappy r:r

although it does seem likely that the price will go to the bottom of the range at least to the first tp

also there is some minor suport at 1.6700 or so that you would be trading right in to
Agreed.
  • #9,444
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:18pm Jan 23, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Based on daily, entry would be at the open of Friday's bar due to Bearish Engulfing at resistance (if you use H4 based on my previous posts, entry was at 1.6964 or 1.6910 - depending on your risk profile). Entry on Monday is a bit late, IMO.
Thank you for your input. I will study that.
  • #9,445
  • Edited 11:52am Jan 24, 2010 3:25am | Edited 11:52am
I rewrote this a little following a review of the swings...

Worker - we continue to push lower with a new lower high and lower low on the daily, but we are moving into "traffic" and given we are making higher swing highs and higher swing lows I currently expect the DSRI to provide strong support, its my current TP. I have not drawn it but you could draw a weak trend channel between 8th and 19th Jan highs and 8th and 22nd Jan lows...I don't put any meaning on this given the price action but its in the back of my mind for Mondays open if we cannot make a new low....

Boss - Shooting star off the 50% fib from swing high to swing low...that gives me more confidence we should arrive at my first TP. We see a lower swing high and higher swing low highlighting the consolidation we are in.

Big Boss - Doji (indecision) - as a side thought...so far for this months big boss (who is still being born) we have continued to make lower highs but have as yet not taken out last months low...which again highlights the consolidation...

Given the confluence of support below = boss 50 + DSRI + Major Static Support and also given the Big Boss PA and swing story I am skeptical that we can break this support area in the short term....but will wait for PA to confirm.

The violated worker TL above...which I am treating with caution as it has been broken...kicked in again and marked our daily highs on Thursday and Friday... so at the moment I cautiously expect price to consolidate in a coil and eventually break downwards (given higher time frames) after clearing the confluence of support. Note I will draw in a new TL to factor in the Jan 19th high...

I don't think further shorts would be stress free until we clear the Oct 13 low of 1.57 with strong bearish PA.

On the bullish side any reversal PA from the DSRI or static support and I would put in a small size (as counter trend trade) position on the upside. With the trend line already violated it is plausible we could retest the above DSRI again given the bigger consolidation story.

Fundamentals thoughts
-----------------------

Just a few of my ideas as a side note :

1.) New taxes kick in from April and VAT has already been raised draining cash from an already overleveraged population. BoE factors this in and won't be raising rates anytime soon...hence this weeks market reaction to the figures.

2.) Fiscal tightening starts after March election whoever wins. Similar to Greece markets reaction to fiscal tightening plan will be key. I would expect higher volatility moving into the election as the market worries about a hung parliament, etc.

Overall I believe the fundamental picture turns increasingly bearish throughout the year until a solid debt reduction plan is accepted by the market, in the short term we will see high inflation figures for at least another month given lasts years cut in VAT and the jump in Oil prices. I'll watch to see if bullish news gets sold into (like this week) to just increase my confidence that the fundamental data "reaction" is supporting the PA.

Also IF we have now started a longer term risk aversion event I expect cable to be dragged lower with other risk assets as dollar strength continues to build.

Thoughts and criticism welcome...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (22-JAN-10)_daily.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (22-JAN-10)_monthly.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (22-JAN-10)_weekly.png Size: 13 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #9,446
  • Edited 7:22am Jan 24, 2010 4:39am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting Sinan
Worker - HL + LL ...
I see HL-HH on Worker (I am talking about swings, not daily candles).
  • #9,447
  • Edited 5:54am Jan 24, 2010 5:15am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting Blackeagle
I see HL-HH on Worker.
Cheers.. corrected I meant Lower High and Lower Low...(LH and LL)...on the HH...on my data I see Thurdays high as 1.63122 and Fridays high as 1.62846

Ah...I am also refering to the daily candles and not the swings...I should modify my analysis to make the distinction...will look at this later today
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #9,448
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:46am Jan 24, 2010 7:46am
Quoting hcristea
There is one week left until we get a new message from Big Boss so i'll skip the monthly chart now.

I've marked the last 3 candles on the weekly chart, because there is a story there. I've understood the Boss's story this way:
After a consolidation, the bears charged the major support (candle #1) The bulls defended the support, stopping the bears right there (candle #2 doji). Then the bulls counter attacked (candle #3) and managed to drove the bears above the first candle's high. The bulls have the ball and they are in the bears penalty box....
If price retraces, I think price will reaction to 1.0400 level and also a 50% retracement. If your SL is near this level, there is a high chance of it's been taken out and go in your direction.
  • #9,449
  • Jan 25, 2010 1:42am Jan 25, 2010 1:42am
I have not been able to concentrate on studying the PA last week, took delivery of new Xtrail and new desktop computer so still getting sorted out.

I have asked this before but could you guys PLEASE put the pair you are discussing in the title specially if a chart is not attached, very difficult to follow the discussion otherwise, I am sure others would appreciate this as well.

I will get back to posting when I have caught up and studied my charts.

Larry
  • #9,450
  • Jan 25, 2010 2:54am Jan 25, 2010 2:54am
Quoting LarryK
I have asked this before but could you guys PLEASE put the pair you are discussing in the title
Hi Larry, it's about USDCAD.

You can easily follow the discussion if there is a quote in the message and the quote chain is not broken. You could click the link near the username to go to the quoted post. I usually open the quoted post in a new tab/window because its easier to follow.

Attached Image
  • #9,451
  • Jan 25, 2010 4:50am Jan 25, 2010 4:50am
Quoting hcristea
Hi Larry, it's about USDCAD.

You can easily follow the discussion if there is a quote in the message and the quote chain is not broken. You could click the link near the username to go to the quoted post. I usually open the quoted post in a new tab/window because its easier to follow.

Attachment
Thank you that is useful to know, but still nicer if people just put the pair under discussion in the title

Larry
  • #9,452
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:23am Jan 25, 2010 8:23am
For those who doubt the power of PASR, go back to my post where I first mentioned 1.0600.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,453
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:26am Jan 25, 2010 8:26am
Quoting ave2
Just wanted to say a big thankyou to everyone involved in this thread. I have been studying and practicing and I think improving.
I remember Strat saying that the AAA+ setups "jump out at you", and I had that experience for the first time with GBP/CHF last week. It is so gratifying to see things work out the way you visualise them. So, thanks again, and I am now on my second "jump out" trade, I know it will work out great. I wouldnt have been able to do it with out this thread.
Right, you don't have to go hunting for them (conjuring), just look and you will "SEE" them. If you don't "SEE" them, there are no PASR trades.

The ones you "SEE" will stand out like a sore thumb or Dolly Parton's boobs!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,454
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:28am Jan 25, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Donadoney
Blackeagle and Strat thanks

The value of your training cannot be expressed.

I still have a ways to go, but I see some more light.

Hopefully the government doesn't destroy our leveraging ability.

for now I'll keep learning!
WE are ALL learning my friend and we will keep on learning until the day that we die.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,455
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:31am Jan 25, 2010 8:31am
Quoting Lotuselanman
There have been some interesting posts on GBPCHF showing the retesting of the R line around 1.7003 (and thanks to Blackeagle for suggesting the R line could be sloped downwards! Now why didn't I think of that?).

I've had a look at the Daily chart and am sorely tempted to go short at 1.6739 which is 10 pips below the shadow of yesterday's candle (daily) with a SL at 1.6937 (10 pips above wick of the candle) but there are some issues.

I've missed the first day of the drop!...
Look for a re-test on minor Worker resistance or the other thing I told you. Make sure it is in line with your R:R and MM.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,456
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:35am Jan 25, 2010 8:35am
Quoting mfsloane
Hi Strat,

I have been lurking and skulking around these parts for a couple of months now, signed up late last year and still working my way thru the thread - I thought it was time to come clean and say G'day.

I am also an engineer and I am looking forward to the celebration of my 3rd 20th birthday later this year. I don't play the guitar, but I do have several cartons of vinyl that I hoarded waiting for the technology to catch up - now I just need to create the spare time to convert it into digital format to play on my IPod that may buy real...
Thanks, Mike. Don't confuse this thread with an ego driven trading thread - this is 100% transparent ego - less teaching on here. You will get the Good, the Bad and the Downright Ugly and if you persevere long enough, you will get the little people and all that goes with them!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,457
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:39am Jan 25, 2010 8:39am
Quoting Sinan
Cheers.. corrected I meant Lower High and Lower Low...(LH and LL)...on the HH...on my data I see Thurdays high as 1.63122 and Fridays high as 1.62846

Ah...I am also refering to the daily candles and not the swings...I should modify my analysis to make the distinction...will look at this later today
Worker candles are part of the Worker swings are part of the BOSS candles are part of the BOSS swings are part of the BIG BOSS candles are part of the BIG BOSS swings!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,458
  • Jan 25, 2010 8:44am Jan 25, 2010 8:44am
Quoting LarryK
I have not been able to concentrate on studying the PA last week, took delivery of new Xtrail and new desktop computer so still getting sorted out.

I have asked this before but could you guys PLEASE put the pair you are discussing in the title specially if a chart is not attached, very difficult to follow the discussion otherwise, I am sure others would appreciate this as well.

I will get back to posting when I have caught up and studied my charts.

Larry
I agree.

I must admit to studying Pamela Anderson's pair this week-end but that was a necessary break from what I'm working on just lately!

I did wonder if there was a double bottom to go with the double top but there again there may not be enough plastic to go around!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,459
  • Jan 25, 2010 10:54am Jan 25, 2010 10:54am
Quoting Naws
this seems like a very tempting trade especially if you traded off the first BEEB

i feel its a little late to enter now because i think that a safe SL should be placed above the resistance of 1.7000 which would give a crappy r:r

although it does seem likely that the price will go to the bottom of the range at least to the first tp

also there is some minor suport at 1.6700 or so that you would be trading right in to
Price has made its way back up to 1.69 today. The Worker looks very Bullish to me and its cousin EUR GBP is pointing Down. If you liked this Short off the BEEB would you open a position here with your stop above 1.7 as discussed?
  • #9,460
  • Jan 25, 2010 11:06am Jan 25, 2010 11:06am
Quoting pi piper
Price has made its way back up to 1.69 today. The Worker looks very Bullish to me and its cousin EUR GBP is pointing Down. If you liked this Short off the BEEB would you open a position here with your stop above 1.7 as discussed?
No I wouldn't enter a short now, not in to that big bullish candle

maybe if another bearish candle will form at the resistance I might consider it but now its too late

better to just wait now and see how the price plays out
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