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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,041
  • Jan 23, 2010 6:06pm Jan 23, 2010 6:06pm
Thanks Lusan,

your comments were great specially rescue
think about this: let us suppose that I took the wrong trade and I rescue the trade...
I keep doing this day in and day out...
I am happy...then one day...
I am against the trend and ...kapooom!

I thought I was good at rescue until last tuesday big wave kapoom - dead (luckily it was demo)
I was thinking to trade live in Febuary then I have to think again.

and this trading "thing" becomes part of your life...
it makes you a more flexible person, a "better" human being...etc.
Then the big question comes:
" is trading using a dance strategy a self improving method"
or
is it an "spiritual practice" that makes you a better human being?
Great comment

Regards,
  • #13,042
  • Jan 23, 2010 6:16pm Jan 23, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Thanks Lusan,

your comments were great specially rescue
think about this: let us suppose that I took the wrong trade and I rescue the trade...
I keep doing this day in and day out...
I am happy...then one day...
I am against the trend and ...kapooom!

[color=blue]I thought I was good at rescue until last tuesday big wave kapoom - dead (luckily it was demo)
I was thinking to trade live in Febuary then I have to think again....
stop thinking and keep practicing my friend....
Forex is a cemetery full of proud traders...

By the way, I believe that the sooner anyone move to real money the better would be...why? Because then the inner dragons will come, show their faces and try to eat us alive.

What am I saying?
Demo money does not help, in my opinion, to develop mindset.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,043
  • Jan 24, 2010 12:32pm Jan 24, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting j-pax
hello auxesis,

i woudl like to argue with you, letting my thoughts ramble and keep my ambition to trade alive...
"i can trade with lack of time".

Dealers generally eliminate inventory positions quickly. The half-life of an inventory position is below five minutes for highly active dealers and below half an hour for less active dealers (Bjønnes and Rime 2005, Osler et al. [size=3]2007)....
i would like to say about my above stupid post i agree with auxesis it is questionable if the way of trading teached here can be done part-time.

i try to find arguments why it can be done. i should not share my thoughts against what makes alot of sense after a reread.

it's not nice to study and practise something as good as this thread and have to decide i cannot do it.
i have not decided this yet, but i am full of doubt.

regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,044
  • Jan 24, 2010 12:45pm Jan 24, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting j-pax
i would like to say about my above stupid post i agree with auxesis it is questionable if the way of trading teached here can be done part-time.

i try to find arguments why it can be done. i should not share my thoughts against what makes alot of sense after a reread.

it's not nice to study and practise something as good as this thread and have to decide i cannot do it.
i have not decided this yet, but i am full of doubt.

regards, pax
J-Pax. To be profitable forex trader is elite. Profitable forex traders are aristocracy of the trading. Unique, excellent persons with years of experience.
YOU CAN BE... one day such trader. But you have to survive.
Everytime i fall, when i think i am profitable and make mistake again. I stand up and say : Relax, and prepare for another lessons. BE PREPARED. Not killed. You have to kill others in markets. It is easy? There are only people. They also have their doubts. Only masters possibly do not.
Here at this thread are masters. True masters.

When you listen to them, learn, resist, you are already the winner.
Just the only brick is the time, which is necessary.
Regards
  • #13,045
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:20pm Jan 24, 2010 1:20pm
Stumbled across this one today, you won't hear about it, the information is 2 years old.

Question, why if there's enough inland oil to fuel the US for the next 2000 years, why are we not exploring it? Environmentalists are blocking the production, but who are they, and who would benefit from keeping it closed?

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
  • #13,046
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:33pm Jan 24, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting auxesis
Stumbled across this one today, you won't hear about it, the information is 2 years old.

Question, why if there's enough inland oil to fuel the US for the next 2000 years, why are we not exploring it? Environmentalists are blocking the production, but who are they, and who would benefit from keeping it closed?

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
That is big mess. One side wants everything green. Power from the sun, wind powerplants...(reduce using oil)
And the others want to save oil... for what then...?
This doesnt make any sense to me...

They maybe now, that the green energy wouldnt be enough, but they need it as populism. And maybe unfortunatelly they thing of war (i hope not...).
  • #13,047
  • Jan 24, 2010 2:11pm Jan 24, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting auxesis
Stumbled across this one today, you won't hear about it, the information is 2 years old.

Question, why if there's enough inland oil to fuel the US for the next 2000 years, why are we not exploring it? Environmentalists are blocking the production, but who are they, and who would benefit from keeping it closed?

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
Add to that the 15 billion barrels of oil sand in Utah (along with over 1 trillion barrels of that stuff in Canada), plus enough natural gas to power the nation for over 250 years, plus billions of barrels of oil just off the coasts of California and Florida, plus more coal reserves than the entire known world wide oil reserves, and you really start scratching your head. Was trying to find an article from a few years ago that estimated oil reserves under the Colorado Rockies to be three times the estimated reserves in the Middle East, but can't find it. Maybe when the myth of man mad global warming goes away, we can get on with tapping into our own resources.
  • #13,048
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:06pm Jan 24, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting auxesis
Stumbled across this one today, you won't hear about it, the information is 2 years old.

Question, why if there's enough inland oil to fuel the US for the next 2000 years, why are we not exploring it? Environmentalists are blocking the production, but who are they, and who would benefit from keeping it closed?

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
good post,
commodity ccy may be a bit unstable, very difficult to sustain growth figs if your officially a one trick pony, not to mention the sovereign action, possible liquidity drain may lead to liquidity trap ( infinite elasticity).
http://www.financialpost.com/news-se...tml?id=2463322

Should be an interesting year.
just my 2.
Regards and rhythm to all,
  • #13,049
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:39pm Jan 24, 2010 3:39pm
Good evening and morning everyone.
The week starts.
I am in.
Good luck to everyone
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,050
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:53pm Jan 24, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Fana
J-Pax. To be profitable forex trader is elite. Profitable forex traders are aristocracy of the trading. Unique, excellent persons with years of experience.
YOU CAN BE... one day such trader. But you have to survive.

Just the only brick is the time, which is necessary.
Regards
thanks Fana, for your support....

i've survived for some time now. but with my lack of time and because of this not switching higher TF or wave degree (wich i mentioned in my drunk/ stuppid post) for rescues, a big loss is just a matter of time??

i don't know if i magage my trades well or i was just lucky.... ATM. i think lucky..... i keep trading and try to get my confidence back.

regards, pax
'
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,051
  • Edited 5:12pm Jan 24, 2010 4:55pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting j-pax
thanks Fana, for your support....

i've survived for some time now. but with my lack of time and because of this not switching higher TF or wave degree (wich i mentioned in my drunk/ stuppid post) for rescues, a big loss is just a matter of time??

i don't know if i magage my trades well or i was just lucky.... ATM. i think lucky..... i keep trading and try to get my confidence back.

regards, pax
'
Hi j-pax,
I notice that many here have time constrains which pushes professional trading , out of your scope.
What i had presented is professional's perspective to trading.
To trade as as an investor , there is only 1 way to do it.
I have to think about, if I should bring anyone there.
Need some time to think about that.

regards
  • #13,052
  • Jan 24, 2010 5:13pm Jan 24, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting luSan
Good evening and morning everyone.
The week starts.
I am in.
Good luck to everyone
Trade nimble Lusan, much undercurrents.One thing stands out like a sore thumb. the usd is dying.The question is how is she dying.that we cannot see yet.


Its not spiritual mostly, lifestyle( way of life) only. but its niceto have your creator and angels on your side.


regards
  • #13,053
  • Jan 24, 2010 5:45pm Jan 24, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting fti
Trade nimble Lusan, much undercurrents.One thing stands out like a sore thumb. the usd is dying.The question is how is she dying.that we cannot see yet.


Its not spiritual mostly, lifestyle( way of life) only. but its niceto have your creator and angels on your side.


regards
thanks for the warning.

Actually, I am feeling uneasy with my buying of the dollar...
so I am out...closed positions and will have a chat with my wife.
Good night to all and be warned...as fti said...
(that big dumped of on $/Y is bogging me)
Those that want to gamble might want to buy Euro.

Happy to know that you keep an eye on us!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,054
  • Edited 6:53pm Jan 24, 2010 6:23pm | Edited 6:53pm
watching e/u 4139 for direction and scout entry.

note taken @ e/u 4162
  • #13,055
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:27pm Jan 24, 2010 6:27pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Thanks Maheswara for your response ...... are you now more "comfortable" adding /attacking fti-style since you've been trading for a while with that mo/mm ?

Some nice discussion about higher time frames ....... If I may to add from my limited knowledge of fti's MO ..... yes, be aware what's going on with daily, but entries and exits are made by watching PA on 5 and 15 min charts (with keeping an eye on hourly "form").

The most important thing seems to me is what fti said over and over again ..... you have to be NIMBLE. If daily is "trending" nobody knows when it's going to stop , go to consolidation from there or reverse, some unexpected news can hit you. It's complete "unknown" out there !!! Maybe, within a daily candle, pair will move 400 pips against the trend and then come back from where it started ..... can your rescue / survive 400 pip move? (and "know" it will revert back to trend??? I like what fti said about OUR view of the markets .... " don't fall in love with your bias "....

Big "unknown" is a trader himself also. One that is battle-tested is going to react differently from the novice. (I'm not a novice trader but definitely winning consistently would be a "novelty" to me ..... lol)

I hope that attachment/chart will show up in my post. It's example of fti's "nimbleness". It was a while back so I think I it's on 30 min chart .... couldn't go back farther with 5 min. Daily was "down" . Fti was long at first, but then had a "massive" attack shorting the pair resulting in a substantial gain. I have watched that chart so many times and I always came with the same conclusion ...... I would never attacked aggressively like that ...... probably wouldn't go short at all ..... respecting too much chart support to the left.

Thanks for your time and comments :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fti 20 a.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #13,056
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:33pm Jan 24, 2010 6:33pm
Ai ya, this morning is a waste of eyeballs.
Sandwiched between big hands.
  • #13,057
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:41pm Jan 24, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting luSan
stop thinking and keep practicing my friend....
Forex is a cemetery full of proud traders...

By the way, I believe that the sooner anyone move to real money the better would be...why? Because then the inner dragons will come, show their faces and try to eat us alive.

What am I saying?
Demo money does not help, in my opinion, to develop mindset.
Lusan,

Thanks for your comment but I'm still not happy with my results so I need to find final solution before I go for live

Regards,
  • #13,058
  • Edited 7:44pm Jan 24, 2010 6:51pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting luSan

By the way, I believe that the sooner anyone move to real money the better would be...why? Because then the inner dragons will come, show their faces and try to eat us alive.

What am I saying?
Demo money does not help, in my opinion, to develop mindset.
I agree, I like the example of fti teaching our step mother with the risk of reward being able to by a ice cream cone with her gains.
your in with a little risk and it has your attention.
  • #13,059
  • Jan 24, 2010 10:48pm Jan 24, 2010 10:48pm
from the "archive":

Quoting fti
In trading, it is quite impossible to KNOW if a trader is trading a market that runs.
As professionals we have to be trading it all the time when we come on board.
For traders too, many must be able to trade the markets whenever they come on board, otherwise the productivity is lost to opportunity cost.
So in essence , whenever a trader comes to battlestation, he should trade.

But sometimes his form is bad and his timing is bad. It is these times that the trader should be wary that is he should over stay a bad entry.

During the initial stages of his entry, he would be able to begin to graps the flow of the market. That is why a quick snap shot of the daily chart is necessay for him to determine the undertone of the market. It is from this analysis that he must determine the relationship of the 3 kingdoms and the general volatility , ie the gradient of the footprints of the market would hghlight , what the MM should be required.

If volatility was high then the MM should not be aggressive and the tolerance of reverse swing to his position should be re-active.

Under low vol conditions his MM must be strong and non riding. His stay would be protracted. AND it would require him to spend much time to carve out his profits. If time was a factor against him for whatsoever reasons, then the trader should not attempt to begin anything that he may not be able to finish.

Generally the text from Sun Zi highlights that protracted battles uses lots of energy, therefore should not be attempted unless the charisma was strong And afforded.

Side note: This is what killed the kerviel and leeson, etc. Overstaying bad positions. This is why I trade the short charts. because a protracted battle in 5 min charts can cause a trader to be involved in active battle for up to 24 hours. Just imagine if such was attempted on hourly or 4 hourly charts . The tenure of protracted battle could last for up to a week+. Any thing that last more than 3 days would have totally drained the alertness and nimbleness of the trader. And this can disturb the careful natured behaviour of the best traders. When a trader is not proactive in his managing his positions, chances are that HOPE and numbness have stepped in to his mindset.

Mostly , traders gets killed not because of MO but on MM. Which is clearly the case. When positions get large , its basically cos/ the trader is timed out. If trader was against trend , he can definately feel that his exposure was already dead in the water. Then the decision of whether to rescue comes into play. If such was attempted , it would be an exercise to book damage control, overstaying the trade would only work to his disadvantage. And if the damage increased, it would be fool hardy to increase stake. If stake was increased and the situation for recovery does not surface then it is clear that he's on the wrong side of the fence. Then if reacue was attempted again, surely over staying that rescue woud only show his ego at work. And if a trader continue to attempt rescue after rescue without improving book bottom line. It is clear that the trader is disillisioned.

Rule of thumb: Rescues must be strong and swiftly executed. Only profitable trades should be protracted in tenure of attempt, and even that must be limited in strength, for defensive options to be available.
  • #13,060
  • Jan 24, 2010 10:50pm Jan 24, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting auxesis
Stumbled across this one today, you won't hear about it, the information is 2 years old.

Question, why if there's enough inland oil to fuel the US for the next 2000 years, why are we not exploring it? Environmentalists are blocking the production, but who are they, and who would benefit from keeping it closed?

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
it's the psychology of last man standing. who do you think will have the last fuel in its military tanks and ships? ok, some submarines and aircraft carriers are fueled by nuclear power but the rest use oil products.
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