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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #13,021
  • Jan 22, 2010 5:08pm Jan 22, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting auxesis
Brown wins! There's still hope.
Hey auxesis, I remembered this post a while ago and wanted to get back to it. Isn't it amazing! The "progressives" on MSNBC are going out of their minds and it is the best stuff on TV! Unfortunately, Obama is on track (as traders we can spot a trend a mile away) to be the biggest failure in the last 100 years. I understand that Jimmy Carter is very excited that he will move up from the bottom on the list - lol.
  • #13,022
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:09pm Jan 22, 2010 10:09pm
I thank all of you for your kind words and help .
I'm learning the chicken dance first before moving up the ladder.
I know i'll be able to waltz when the time comes!
  • #13,023
  • Edited 11:13pm Jan 22, 2010 10:32pm | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi fti, I missed this story completely. Do you have more details on this? Not the middle finger part - LOL - I get that part. Most importantly, how are you doing? I hope you are well, and I miss your daily leadership here. Have a good weekend.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...2352100600.htm

here is one moronic thought, you judge.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...7-e9680c073cbb

The market has spoken.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...banking-reform

if the Conservatives win , looks like it time to bail out of the UK?
If you cannot get it key word is Osborne.

regards
  • #13,024
  • Edited 2:00am Jan 23, 2010 1:48am | Edited 2:00am
sayonara, my dear friend.

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“Believe not each accusing tongue, As most weak persons do, But still believe that story wrong, Which ought not to be true...’ KC Liu 1955
Attached Image
  • #13,025
  • Jan 23, 2010 2:27am Jan 23, 2010 2:27am
Quoting fti
sayonara, my dear friend.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8epndp0eQx0&fmt=18

“Believe not each accusing tongue, As most weak persons do, But still believe that story wrong, Which ought not to be true...’ KC Liu 1955
hi fti,

I am glad to see that you are not MIA yet. Time will heal the wounds.

Oanda was a good broker until one day the news trader exploits almost killed it. Now its average like everybody else.

best regards,
  • #13,026
  • Edited 3:07am Jan 23, 2010 2:55am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting Fana
Yes, it was really mistake. Another thing is how to prevent myself(before myself), before big loses.... How to be able to close it, when i find myself at the bad side...? Regards
if you read the thread then this is what you should be focusing on:
Quoting fti
As a wrongly timed entrance , just signifys your lack of the ability to pulse the market.
The right protocol, I repeat, would be to either withdraw from the position
with minimal damage.(damage control if you please).
or to commit into the position, as a rescue process and a re-averaging process
for position retreval.
There is no other avenues other than these two options.
Read the last sentence again. Notice that there is no such option- do nothing.

From my own experience I can say that first you need to get comfortable with booking losses. Otherwise your mind will play tricks on you and eventually you will pick the wrong battles.

I know it is hard to judge in the beginning:
- should I cut it?
- should I rescue it?
- should I flip it?

And if these questions pop in your head then there is only one real option- bite the bullet.

Quoting fti
If positioning was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis,
then the whole process collapses into hope.
And a host of subjectivity and egoistical processes begins.
Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking.
  • #13,027
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:00am Jan 23, 2010 3:00am
Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep.
Romans 12:15




Take as long as you need fti.
  • #13,028
  • Jan 23, 2010 5:18am Jan 23, 2010 5:18am
Quoting fti

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...2352100600.htm

here is one moronic thought, you judge.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...7-e9680c073cbb

The market has spoken.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...banking-reform

if the Conservatives win , looks like it time to bail out of the UK?
If you cannot get it key word is Osborne.

regards
Thanks fti. Big fight going to happen in US over this bank reg issue. Not sure why UK would venture down this path, too. Obama is going to be a lame duck in about 10 months, but they can still do great damage until then. UK must resist much of what is being proposed.
  • #13,029
  • Jan 23, 2010 7:31am Jan 23, 2010 7:31am
Quoting piccolo
if you read the thread then this is what you should be focusing on:

Read the last sentence again. Notice that there is no such option- do nothing.

From my own experience I can say that first you need to get comfortable with booking losses. Otherwise your mind will play tricks on you and eventually you will pick the wrong battles.

I know it is hard to judge in the beginning:
- should I cut it?
- should I rescue it?
- should I flip it?

And if these questions pop in your head then there is only one real option- bite the bullet.
When your field of focus is limited to the last couple of days of price movement, you're at the market's whim. Taken in to account that you are going in the daily direction (daily charts) you can find your self caught in a correction that will take you out of your present area, think corrective C wave. At this point, if you do not have the time or resources to fight it out, at this point you would cut even though the position could be rescued.

If my focus is reduced further, to the last few hours of PA, how much more at risk am I?

Each smaller picture (timeframe) is just part of a larger one, and so on. When we put all of our eggs into a trade in a small context, we cut the ability to properly manage, and eventually we will take a serious blow to the account as resources and time constraints will force one into surrender.

I have my reservations on the ability to properly use this MO on a limited or part time basis. Yes there are times to cut and run, but if every time you find yourself in the rears and out of time or money to rescue, just cutting the position is a slow death.

jmho.

regards,
  • #13,030
  • Jan 23, 2010 7:43am Jan 23, 2010 7:43am
Quoting piscicida
Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep.
Romans 12:15




Take as long as you need fti.
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  • #13,031
  • Jan 23, 2010 7:54am Jan 23, 2010 7:54am
Quoting auxesis
When your field of focus is limited to the last couple of days of price movement, you're at the market's whim. Taken in to account that you are going in the daily direction (daily charts) you can find your self caught in a correction that will take you out of your present area, think corrective C wave. At this point, if you do not have the time or resources to fight it out, at this point you would cut even though the position could be rescued.

If my focus is reduced further, to the last few hours of PA, how much more at risk am I?

Each smaller...
Well put auxesis. I see a lot of people here trading the 5M chart and falling into the troubles you describe. For me, it is best to trade a higher chart (1H) in the direction of an even higher chart (4H), only using the smaller chart (10M) for entry and exit. I believe this is what fti does, when he pulls back to higher charts for better view/analysis. It would be a good idea to do this before entering any trading opportunity.
  • #13,032
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:03am Jan 23, 2010 9:03am
Quoting GEfx
Well put auxesis. I see a lot of people here trading the 5M chart and falling into the troubles you describe. For me, it is best to trade a higher chart (1H) in the direction of an even higher chart (4H), only using the smaller chart (10M) for entry and exit. I believe this is what fti does, when he pulls back to higher charts for better view/analysis. It would be a good idea to do this before entering any trading opportunity.
GE,

Imho, For FTI, yes and no. He has already said he keeps the daily charts in the background, but I'd say he fully engrossed in the current PA (small time frame battle) but within the context of the next larger picture.

Meaning, he doesn't allow himself to be trapped/surrounded inside a full attack, when there's the possibility of further correction. That being said, PA can do what ever it wants, but by his own experience, the possibilities of being caught fully off guard are v.small and if caught knowing it and exiting before serious damage occurs.

The other thing imho, even when we see L4, L5 attacks we do not know the step of the skew,as he jumps levels at times, but I'd go as far as saying at what we consider full attack, FTI has suffecient resources to rescue if needed. Remember one of the main ingredients for success listed at the beginning of this thread, Capitalization.

Some here seem to be having difficulty as of late, one of the main reasons I believe is the limited view and over exposure in the initial positioning, plus the lack of time needed to bring the book into a positive position. With out the time resolve and capital needed this MO (although the best way to beat the house) is questionable.

Back to the garden,

regards,
  • #13,033
  • Jan 23, 2010 12:46pm Jan 23, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting auxesis
GE,

....... Remember one of the main ingredients for success listed at the beginning of this thread, Capitalization.

Some here seem to be having difficulty as of late, one of the main reasons I believe is the limited view and over exposure in the initial positioning, plus the lack of time needed to bring the book into a positive position. With out the time resolve and capital needed this MO (although the best way to beat the house) is questionable. .....
Wise words

And the ability to orchestrate the skew while dancing is the cream on top

Now on my second read of the TAF thread and half way through the lounge thread - so much wisdom from fti and fellow students

Regards
  • #13,034
  • Jan 23, 2010 2:17pm Jan 23, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting auxesis
When your field of focus is limited to the last couple of days of price movement, you're at the market's whim. Taken in to account that you are going in the daily direction (daily charts) you can find your self caught in a correction that will take you out of your present area, think corrective C wave. At this point, if you do not have the time or resources to fight it out, at this point you would cut even though the position could be rescued.

If my focus is reduced further, to the last few hours of PA, how much more at risk am I?

Each smaller...
You gave me a lot to think about what I do?

Here is my list:
1. Check 1D and its level...Trending or ranging?
2. Checl 1H...Waving or on break out state?
3. Check the upcoming news...if many news, then I am out regardless
4. Choose a direction...
5. Check 15M...wait for a reversal toward the chosen direction.
6. Send the scout.
7. If scout winning...let it run, before sending a 2nd wave...if scout losing, review 15M and 1H and decide either to flip or to rescue...if first rescue fail...then another decision: send another rescue wave or pull-the plug..if flip, I want to do it early...if too late then risk is too large for me...
in any case... I must pray!

Constrains:
1. Tokyo dance
2. Out by midnight...if in rescue mode...I must pray even more...

Of course, any one that believe that knows what PA should contact me. I have a bridge that I want to sell.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,035
  • Jan 23, 2010 2:38pm Jan 23, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting luSan
You gave me a lot to think about what I do?

Here is my list:
1. Check 1D and its level...Trending or ranging?
2. Checl 1H...Waving or on break out state?
3. Check the upcoming news...if many news, then I am out regardless
4. Choose a direction...
5. Check 15M...wait for a reversal toward the chosen direction.
6. Send the scout.
7. If scout winning...let it run, before sending a 2nd wave...if scout losing, review 15M and 1H and decide either to flip or to rescue...if first rescue fail...then another decision: send another rescue wave or pull-the...
Lusan,

How's the new job going?

I'm just letting my thoughts ramble this weekend. I just believe that squeezing this method into a small window of time and PA is not the intended way. That's not to say that one cannot be profitable with the teachings and concept offered in the thread, but most are using a modification of the original concept imho, as the broker/MM does not sleep. Most here do not have the ability to ride the open book for long periods with reserve capital, so short circuits, limits are built into the MO by the individual for self protection but I'm not sure if this nullifys the MO's longterm ability......... FTI would have that answer as he has been using and teaching this method for many years.

Time to take the better half out to the movies, wishing all a great weekend

reagrds,
  • #13,036
  • Edited 3:54pm Jan 23, 2010 3:01pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting auxesis
GE,
Some here seem to be having difficulty as of late, one of the main reasons I believe is the limited view and over exposure in the initial positioning, plus the lack of time needed to bring the book into a positive position. With out the time resolve and capital needed this MO (although the best way to beat the house) is questionable.
,
hello auxesis,

i woudl like to argue with you, letting my thoughts ramble and keep my ambition to trade alive...
"i can trade with lack of time".

Dealers generally eliminate inventory positions quickly. The half-life of an inventory position is below five minutes for highly active dealers and below half an hour for less active dealers (Bjønnes and Rime 2005, Osler et al. 2007).

this is from a "A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE" by : carol L. olser.

i read about fti and elliot wave he talked about junior dealer getting nto troubles. they where maybe on minute or minor w degree and fti switched to intermediate/primary degree to save their ass.

i still believe trading can be done at minute wave degree and manage the dance. maheswara had a good expalnation about managing a dance a couple of posts ago thanks for that.

we don't have fti to save us out of a bad position so what you say about time and capitalization is super importand..... i trade demo only now... thinking some more about what you said.


edit: i just had a party so maybe i edit tommorow and make more sense.... or even less
regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #13,037
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:03pm Jan 23, 2010 3:03pm
Some people say she is 92, some says 80... doesnt matter if you can DANCE like this...


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V
  • #13,038
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:21pm Jan 23, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

How's the new job going?

I'm just letting my thoughts ramble this weekend. I just believe that squeezing this method into a small window of time and PA is not the intended way. That's not to say that one cannot be profitable with the teachings and concept offered in the thread, but most are using a modification of the original concept imho, as the broker/MM does not sleep. Most here do not have the ability to ride the open book for long periods with reserve capital, so short circuits, limits are built into the MO by the individual for...
Job seems going well.
good people trying to do their best...

fti told us everything: it is so simple but so hard to accept it: three components: market structure, etc...
so what is the real problem?
I think that the darn thing is so simple that it becomes hard for many people to take...and of course...then the market almost inmediately destroy them...
think about this: let us suppose that I took the wrong trade and I rescue the trade...
I keep doing this day in and day out...
I am happy...then one day...
I am against the trend and ...kapooom!
I am destroyed...
that is the problem of some...
another believe that they know what PA will do next...
then PA destroy them...
another think that they could statistically model the next PA move...
they are also destroyed...everyone is destroyed...
included all those that play with MA, sto, trend lines...etc...
but then you dance...you see yourself using you experience developed steps...tic-tac-tic...
order in and order out...
you do ok as long as pride does not interfere and make you believe that you KNOW what is going to happens next...
so you become profitable...etc...
and this trading "thing" becomes part of your life...
it makes you a more flexible person, a "better" human being...etc.
Then the big question comes:
" is trading using a dance strategy a self improving method"
or
is it an "spiritual practice" that makes you a better human being?
that is so hard to accept to those that look into Forex to just make money..
Me? I am totally reversing to the very basic...I tried so many variants and they do not deliver on the long whole...(even though I am doing great versus the MM average in this country)...
so I just want to dance the 1D-1H-15M-5M music.

I am just waiting until Sunday evening:
What Japan will bring to me?
that is really exciting!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #13,039
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:29pm Jan 23, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting luSan
it makes you a more flexible person, a "better" human being...etc.
Then the big question comes:
" is trading using a dance strategy a self improving method"
or
is it an "spiritual practice" that makes you a better human being?
Lusan,

Remeber this is what we talked when we met....

I have accepted this.... this changes you as a person....


V
  • #13,040
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:37pm Jan 23, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Lusan,

Remeber this is what we talked when we met....

I have accepted this.... this changes you as a person....


V
Indeed...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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