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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,441
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:33pm Jan 22, 2010 10:33pm
Guys 'm still not reading this thread. Just trading system without being influenced :-) I will have a read back in a week or so and compare your findings with mine.

What I wanted to say for the new people or for those having trouble with the indicators. I found that the mt4 version that BROCO supplies works perfectly without any glitches.

I know how frustrat5ing it can be if you can't get the darn thing to work.

happy pippin guys
It's my price or no price at all!
  • #2,442
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:46am Jan 24, 2010 1:46am
HI...

I am reading entire thread... but I see your post.

Can you kindly share your sma trend strategy?
Thanks in advance...


Quoting acsand
Hi NightMoves,

First off, thank you for posting this thread. I am a pipnoob who has been developing my own SMA based trend trading strategy and this really refined exactly what I have been looking for.

I woke up today eager to begin trading this strategy and I will tell you after doing much research early in the day to identify the stronger trends, I have been 4/4 in trades for my day (done for the night now)

Here is my results:

USD/JPY // SHORT // Entry: 86.34 // SL: 86.90 // Closed Trade @ +43pips
EUR/JPY // SHORT // Entry: 130.10 // SL:...
  • #2,443
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:29am Jan 24, 2010 6:29am
Quoting AlbertoFX
HI...

I am reading entire thread... but I see your post.

Can you kindly share your sma trend strategy?
Thanks in advance...
HI AlbertoFX,

The first few pages are of this thread are pretty much devoted to the use of this method, if there is something inparticular you are not understanding let us know what it is and we can then answer your questions.

--NM
  • #2,444
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:34am Jan 24, 2010 6:34am
I was thinking of a more low-risk entry using the bpc. Instead of entering at the continuation part, we could also enter at the pullback aspect almost to the pip.
e.g. if h1 is my setup chart and m15 is my trigger chart, I will look for a break of the retracement trendline on the m15 and a likely area where price will pull back to (S/R level on m15) and enter maybe 2 pips below that area with a stop 5 pips above that area, which would be a really small stop.
Now, many breakouts turn upside down on us, so I would recommend taking off 50% before it hits the breakout low/high. After hitting that low/high it's risk free and we can look for our normal targets as usual.
What use would that give us? Less risk but bigger position size. If I only have a 10 pip stop loss instead of a 30 pip stop loss, I can enter with only 3% of my account instead of 5% (thus reducing the risk of the trade) but my lot-size would be much bigger due to the small stop loss. (I calculate my lot-size according to my stop loss).
Now, important here is to be able to identify S/R levels, but that is important with everything we do here.

What do you guys think?
  • #2,445
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:44am Jan 24, 2010 6:44am
Quoting Custos
I was thinking of a more low-risk entry using the bpc. Instead of entering at the continuation part, we could also enter at the pullback aspect almost to the pip.
e.g. if h1 is my setup chart and m15 is my trigger chart, I will look for a break of the retracement trendline on the m15 and a likely area where price will pull back to (S/R level on m15) and enter maybe 2 pips below that area with a stop 5 pips above that area, which would be a really small stop.
Now, many breakouts turn upside down on us, so I would recommend taking off 50% before...

here is an example
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #2,446
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:44am Jan 24, 2010 6:44am
Quoting Custos
I was thinking of a more low-risk entry using the bpc. Instead of entering at the continuation part, we could also enter at the pullback aspect almost to the pip.
e.g. if h1 is my setup chart and m15 is my trigger chart, I will look for a break of the retracement trendline on the m15 and a likely area where price will pull back to (S/R level on m15) and enter maybe 2 pips below that area with a stop 5 pips above that area, which would be a really small stop.
Now, many breakouts turn upside down on us, so I would recommend taking off 50% before...
I am not sure. I would imagine if it is an A+ setup it would work out quite well, even though I have looked for a way to enter a little quicker I still keep coming back to using the same entry signal as we normally use, so I think it depends on the quality of the setup.

--NM
  • #2,447
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:48am Jan 24, 2010 6:48am
Quoting NightMoves
I am not sure. I would imagine if it is an A+ setup it would work out quite well, even though I have looked for a way to enter a little quicker I still keep coming back to using the same entry signal as we normally use, so I think it depends on the quality of the setup.

--NM
thanks for your comments. Well, I anyways just like to take A to A+ setups. Maybe I will add it to my entry techniques, gonna try it more on demo before really using it.
  • #2,448
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:52am Jan 24, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Custos
here is an example
So you are really looking to enter in the area where the normal SL would be placed, again I think it would be determined by the quality of the setup. A 5 or 10 pip SL can get popped rather quickly even after PA passses by the the normal entry location. And then on the other hand, I have seen PA really pick up momentum in the right direction right after the entry.

I guess some experimenting would be needed to see how well it works I am just a little leary of such a small SL even after price starts heading in the right direction. Albeit a risk of 5 pips to gain 50 to 100 does sound good...

--NM
  • #2,449
  • Jan 24, 2010 6:59am Jan 24, 2010 6:59am
Quoting NightMoves
So you are really looking to enter in the area where the normal SL would be placed, again I think it would be determined by the quality of the setup. A 5 or 10 pip SL can get popped rather quickly even after PA passses by the the normal entry location. And then on the other hand, I have seen PA really pick up momentum in the right direction right after the entry.

I guess some experimenting would be needed to see how well it works I am just a little leary of such a small SL even after price starts heading in the right direction. Albeit a risk...
exactly, that's what I would try to do. Yeah, I know that this could be a little dangerous. That's why you really gotta be good in determining the S/R level price could move to. And yeah, 10 pips to gain 100 pips is exactly the reason why I wanna try that on demo.
  • #2,450
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:05am Jan 24, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Custos
exactly, that's what I would try to do. Yeah, I know that this could be a little dangerous. That's why you really gotta be good in determining the S/R level price could move to. And yeah, 10 pips to gain 100 pips is exactly the reason why I wanna try that on demo.
Thats why they have demo accounts, so you can test those theories. I have not even looked over the charts yet today to see what is looking good for the Asian session, and for the week you watching anything interesting?

--NM
  • #2,451
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:15am Jan 24, 2010 7:15am
Quoting NightMoves
Thats why they have demo accounts, so you can test those theories. I have not even looked over the charts yet today to see what is looking good for the Asian session, and for the week you watching anything interesting?

--NM
the best opportunities I've found are eur/usd, as discussed last week.
the usd/jpy h1 short
on the following the weekly is ranging, but nonetheless good opportunities.
usd/cad & eur/cad long h1, once it retraces back a bit. cad/chf h1 short, once it retraces back a bit, and I would say gbp/chf h1 for a short (LOB).
nzd/jpy & chf/jpy h1 looks also good for a short. maybe also cad/jpy h1.

what about you?
  • #2,452
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:23am Jan 24, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Custos
the best opportunities I've found are eur/usd, as discussed last week.
the usd/jpy h1 short
on the following the weekly is ranging, but nonetheless good opportunities.
usd/cad & eur/cad long h1, once it retraces back a bit. cad/chf h1 short, once it retraces back a bit, and I would say gbp/chf h1 for a short (LOB).
nzd/jpy & chf/jpy h1 looks also good for a short. maybe also cad/jpy h1.

what about you?
I just went through my charts and here is what I have:
E/U- Short
U/J Short
CADJPY Short
E/J short


Thats is really about all I am seeing, these are all on the 1 hour TF.

--NM
  • #2,453
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:29am Jan 24, 2010 7:29am
Quoting NightMoves
I just went through my charts and here is what I have:
E/U- Short
U/J Short
CADJPY Short
E/J short


Thats is really about all I am seeing, these are all on the 1 hour TF.

--NM
e/j is just sitting at major weekly support. maybe you wanna wait for it to go below support.

best regards
  • #2,454
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:36am Jan 24, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Custos
e/j is just sitting at major weekly support. maybe you wanna wait for it to go below support.

best regards
Yes I have the S/R levels marked up in this chart showing the weekly levels, there is about 50 pips in between the the major Support levels from what I am seeing this trade would really have to be watched closely until it get out of the brush piles.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp sr levels.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,455
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:57am Jan 24, 2010 7:57am
There is USD news tomorrow morning so I am not sure how much any of the USD crosses are going to move before that comes out, but the rest of the pairs on the list seem to be pretty much in the clear no big news anyway.

--NM
  • #2,456
  • Jan 24, 2010 12:42pm Jan 24, 2010 12:42pm
CUSTOS modified entry suggestion.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2446

Quoting Custos
here is an example
I understand what you are saying here, but this requires PRECISE entry. Essentially, you are trying to pick top and bottom on a trigger chart, that is just too high risk for me. I prefer the 1,2,3 confirmation: because it confirms the trend is indeed in place. It forces me not to try and pick market direction, it lets the market reveals its direction to me.(yeah, trading at the bottomline is still picking market direction). Perhaps, a more conservative approach is to use the #1 in 1, 2, 3 formation as the SL point. (i have attached a chart below showing what i mean); nonetheless, the whole approach is too high risk for me even with modifications.

Another thing is the math involved. If you offload 50% just before the price action reaches the #2 of 1,2,3 formation after entry at #3. What possible gain do you REALLY have left? I mean, the math is this:

Ax = 50% value of risk................equation #1
By = 50% value of risk................equation #2

z(x + y) = 100% value of risk.......equation #3

Where A = distance between entry and exit.
Where B = distance between entry and SL.

You use equation 1 and 2 to get "x" and "y"(simple math division). Then you put in "x" and "y" into equation 3 to get multiplicative factor "z".

You just multiply the new found value of "z" with "x" to get how much lots you are suppose to sell at exit to get rid of 50% value of your total risk.

OR

You just multiply the new found value of "z" with "y" to get how much lots you are suppose to keep to get 50% value of your total risk.

Here is an example:

Let us say, the distance between entry and exit for the first 50% you are selling at #2 of 1, 2, 3 formation is 10 pips, and my SL, as per your suggestion is 5 pips above my entry. Let us also assume that My ADR profit target is 100pips away and i am using a total of 100microlots or (100mlots) in this trade. Just for an example.

As per the equation above, that means A = 10 pips and B = 5 pips.

So, that means that

Ax = 50 mlots; 10pips times X = 50mlots; X = 5.
By = 50 mlots; 5pips times Y = 50mlots; Y = 10.

Z(x + y ) = 100mlots; Z(5 + 10) = 100mlots; Z = 6.6667.

The amount i have to sell at the 1st PT to have sold 50% value of my risk = Z times X = 6.6667 times 5 = 33microLots.

The amount i must have left will be Z times Y = 6.6667 times 10 = 66.667microLots.

Now, since my ADR is 100 pips away, i am selling the remaing 66.667 microlots at 100 pips. All this translates into 66.667 X $1 X 100 = $6666.7. Since i sold the first 50% at 10pips, that translates into 33 X $1 X 10 = $330. Then, i average them = ($6666.7 + $330 ) divided by 2 = $3498.7.

That is my total gain here: $3498.7.

What then will be the gain for hector's approach, where you entered at the point where you sold your initial 50% and exit at the ADR of 100pips? Since your entry will be where you sold your initial 50%, profit target will have that 10 pips deducted from it, which makes it 90pips. Since you are risking the same amount to make everything fair and balanced-- that means you are risking 100microlots. And you sold everything at that 90pips. Which translates into 100 X $1 X 90 = $9000.

As you see, that $9000 is higher than $3498.7. Even if you only sell 1/2 at that ADR profit target, your gain will still be $4500-- which is still higher than $3498.7

This is the reason why i am not liking it soo much. Firstly, not only is the risk high(using 5 pips SL = that means nailing almost the exact top/bottom of #3 with a +/- 5pips margin of error), secondly, the selling of 50% of your total risk amount at soo close a point to entry drastically reduces your potential profit gain.

I dont mean to be critical or anything, these are just my two cents. Nonetheless, i think you should experiment with it and tell us how it goes.

Anyways, below is the attached chart that i promised earlier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: custos modified entry.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,457
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:29pm Jan 24, 2010 1:29pm
MODIFIED HECTOR ENTRY techniques

I have read a couple of posts with each person having their modified version of HECTOR's trading technique.

I guess i should share my own.

The first chart i attached is the way i handled S/R consolidations areas or GAPS (yellow area on the illustrative chart) on TRIGGER chart. Whenever i see them on the trigger chart. I tends to wait for a triple tops or triple bottoms formation. You can see clearly what i mean in the attached chart.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264360442




I did the same thing in this trade i posted here. The CAD/JPY short i posted here(my entry was at 87.30)
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264067358

AS You can see to the left, there is a FLAT TOP triangle on the trigger chart to the left. That was the reason why i waited for a triple top to be formed before entry. I have noticed that generally, when a perfect setup failed(as in those two hector video's below) it is because of a S/R consolidation to the left or a gap to the left or a RN. The way i handled that is to wait for a 3 tops confirmation, like a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 setup, rather than a 1, 2, 3 setup.

Video # 1
Inserted Video

Video # 2
Inserted Video


MY SECOND MODIFICATION TO HECTOR system is this:

Whenever there is a RN right in front of the completion of a 1, 2, 3 formation. I dont enter at +/- 5 pips below or above like hector suggested. Let us say, your 1, 2, 3 completed at around 90.05, Hector will recommend entering at 89.45. I dont do that. I wait for a breakout, of that 90.00 level, then a pullback, the retest that solidly failed at the 90.00, followed by a continuation afterwards. The illustrative chart below should be clear.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264360989

Again, you can see this in the CADJPY trade i took last week. I waited for the bounce off the 88.50(even though that ended up giving me a triple top formation(not that i dont like triple top formations))
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1264067358
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 2 3 4 5 entry formation.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bounce off rn entry.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,458
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:39pm Jan 24, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting EntropyLad
CUSTOS modified entry suggestion.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2446



I understand what you are saying here, but this requires PRECISE entry. Essentially, you are trying to pick top and bottom on a trigger chart, that is just too high risk for me. I prefer the 1,2,3 confirmation: because it confirms the trend is indeed in place. It forces me not to try and pick market direction, it lets the market reveals its direction to me.(yeah, trading at the bottomline is still picking market direction). Perhaps,...
good comment, well, I don't wanna use this method alone, I just want to add it to my arsenal of entry methods, so I can average into the trade with different entry points and offset already some of the risk early in the game. But I agree, this entry method is riskier than usual, but since the stoploss is so tight, I can just take 1% to 0.5% (instead of my usual 3%) of my account, and still have a huge lotsize on it (because of the tight stoploss), hope you understand what I mean.

But I will demo it anyways and see how it goes.
  • #2,459
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:53pm Jan 24, 2010 1:53pm
USE OF FUNDAMENTALS.

Since we are talking about modified hector trading. Here is how i use fundamental info with my trading hector approach.

I mostly employ fundamentals when trading slanted trend collapse system. Like i said in these two post(links below)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2423

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2421

I found that when a slanted trend collapse due to fundamentals data or shock, the new trend that is formed tends to run furiously and angrily for week or more. Completely disrespecting ADR and whatnot. Sometimes running to the 50% or 61% DAILY or WEEKLY fibo retracement level. I make my best pips this way. As such, i need to be familiar with fundamentals assessments of various countries.

I generally go to these websites for my fundamentals


#1.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Econ...spx?Symbol=GBP
(It gives all the detailed, raw fundamental data/info on various countries around the world)

#2
http://www.actionforex.com/contentse...ntal-analysis/
(this is a site that aggregates all the fundamental analysis from various banks and brokerages around the world into one single place. They have daily updates and weekly updates. I always read them. This helps me in contrasting my thinking with others to see what i have missed, and also, gives me an idea of what everybody is looking forward to fundamentally)

#3
http://www.fx360.com/commentary/Index.aspx
(i only check out kathy lien and boris schlossberg fundamental analysis here. I ignore the technical analysis on this website. I find kathy and boris fundamental insights to be useful and many times on the money.)

#4. Of course, i also use the forexfactory calendar.

My two cents
  • #2,460
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:53pm Jan 24, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting EntropyLad
MODIFIED HECTOR ENTRY techniques

I have read a couple of posts with each person having their modified version of HECTOR's trading technique.

I guess i should share my own.

The first chart i attached is the way i handled S/R consolidations areas or GAPS (yellow area on the illustrative chart) on TRIGGER chart. Whenever i see them on the trigger chart. I tends to wait for a triple tops or triple bottoms formation. You can see clearly what i mean in the attached chart...
nice modifications. I like your approach.
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