Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 472 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,421
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:44pm Jan 22, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting strat
Screwed up on USDJPY!...
Yepp, that's the BIGGEST problem with fundamentals.

They can indicate reversals, but they DON'T tell you WHEN the reversals will happen.

I ran into the exact same problem learning to trade based with fundamentals. Took me a while to learn that trading based on fundamentals requires a different approach if you want to get in early, which I will not go into here.

The fundies are still pointing upwards on USDJPY, but as you mentioned you have to trade YOUR system.

But this has me thinking if having fundamental analysis on this thread, is taking away the focus from technical analysis.
-Razorjack
  • #9,422
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:08pm Jan 22, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Razorjack
Yepp, that's the BIGGEST problem with fundamentals.

They can indicate reversals, but they DON'T tell you WHEN the reversals will happen.

I ran into the exact same problem learning to trade based with fundamentals. Took me a while to learn that trading based on fundamentals requires a different approach if you want to get in early, which I will not go into here.

The fundies are still pointing upwards on USDJPY, but as you mentioned you have to trade YOUR system.

But this has me thinking if having fundamental analysis on this thread, is taking...
But this has me thinking if having fundamental analysis on this thread, is taking away the focus from technical analysis.

No, not a problem. This sometimes happen to me at trend changes but I make up for it when we lock on to the trend.

The problem is mine - Lack of Discipline!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,423
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:25pm Jan 22, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting strat
But this has me thinking if having fundamental analysis on this thread, is taking away the focus from technical analysis.

No, not a problem. This sometimes happen to me at trend changes but I make up for it when we lock on to the trend.

The problem is mine - Lack of Discipline!
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

It is good to know that you are still like us -human! LOLhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,424
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:47pm Jan 22, 2010 1:47pm
EW theory is ALWAYS easy after the fact. Anyone can go back and find the 5 wave sequence.

How many though, can really (honestly) do this as it is happening in REAL TIME?

And those that tell you they CAN do this always have an excuse for when a wave doesn't materialise - it is a sub wave or an Alternate wave - what good is that when you are trying to make money with the damned thing!

But, when it works, it works (like everything else!)

However, PASR works better, more reliably and more frequently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott wave made easy.gif Size: 31 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,425
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:39pm Jan 22, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting Blackeagle
That channel is not a valid one (too much violation), and this currency is moving sideways since June' 08. All you can do is to trade the range if wide enough but not the subject of this thread (see my previous posts re. EJ range trade).

I am attaching a perfect channel for you. Still valid after 20yrs.
Noted. Poor wording again on my part. Do you see any validity to an internal path within a range such as I have shown with those lines? I don't know what else to call them but I see them often...it's almost as if they were non-horizontal SR lines...not quite DSRI. I realize they may be old DSRI but they still show a path to me.

-m
  • #9,426
  • Edited 7:37pm Jan 22, 2010 2:50pm | Edited 7:37pm
As mentioned before, I now see USDJPY as a technical trade (since the week of 12/27). That puts the 50 fibo into play at 89. And, yes, I agree that the thread is off balance....it's a fine line.

There was nothing wrong with entering a long on 1/19. It was the proper technical play, and I took it myself. Other entiries on a daily basis, however, were likely undisciplied. There was ample room for profitable or break even stops if entry on 1/19 was chosen (100 pips). If I commit a sin and look at the intraday chart, one sees the chopping block nature of this quite clearly. As long as one lives to trade the next day, some sort of re-entry startegy will likely make up the loss and more as the presumed trend resumes.

E/J is the more interesting market to me. I agree with Strat that the downward pressure is much greater this go round. Holding 127 is a nice start, but the close remains concerning. Again, the intraday ameliorates that a bit, but it may, nevertheless, be wise to catch this monster on the upswing for purposes of this strategy which maximizes the profit-stress ratio.

LOL - Strat, we all need to come back to earth sometimes....I've been chasing longs in that market for months! SInce you can take the heat and know it already - it was a "hopeful" but vulnerably managed trade against a shocking news break. The only tipoff was a 4-hour doji at the top before the axe fell. And there was little confirmation from other markets. Kudos to you for stepping up and reminding us to always be aware of the possible nonsense move. (It's not nonsense if it costs one her capital!)
  • #9,427
  • Edited 5:04pm Jan 22, 2010 2:53pm | Edited 5:04pm
As to overall fundametal view, it is a nice debate and probably increases the odds of being correct, but if one can say that his/her bias is long because the sky is blue, it serves as a technical focus, and should remain so to serve its purpose. It is not a blessing to act stupidly unless one is incredibly well capitalized. There is a system at work on this thread, and it is effective. The only discetionary part really is reading the monthly charts for underlying direction versus reversal. S/R lines and candle interpretation are somewhat subjectiive, but overall if used together, should produce profits.
  • #9,428
  • Jan 22, 2010 5:14pm Jan 22, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting Donadoney
No words for this really.
It is classic PA and Blackeagle style combine. Price went straight up to resistance, each candle closed higher than previous candle until last candle at resistance. The next candle opened lower and closed lower than the last candle. The near support at 1.6750, price may lose momentum if a bounce here but it is a good setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf-01-22-10.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #9,429
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:21pm Jan 22, 2010 10:21pm
Blackeagle and Strat thanks

The value of your training cannot be expressed.

I still have a ways to go, but I see some more light.

Hopefully the government doesn't destroy our leveraging ability.

for now I'll keep learning!
  • #9,430
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:17pm Jan 22, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting Donadoney
Blackeagle and Strat thanks

The value of your training cannot be expressed.

I still have a ways to go, but I see some more light.

Hopefully the government doesn't destroy our leveraging ability.

for now I'll keep learning!
Hopefully the government doesn't destroy our leveraging ability

All this means to me is that i will have to up the amount i keep in my account.

Which i will admit sucks! as i like the feeling of keeping my money in the bank instead.
  • #9,431
  • Jan 23, 2010 2:40am Jan 23, 2010 2:40am
There is one week left until we get a new message from Big Boss so i'll skip the monthly chart now.

I've marked the last 3 candles on the weekly chart, because there is a story there. I've understood the Boss's story this way:
After a consolidation, the bears charged the major support (candle #1) The bulls defended the support, stopping the bears right there (candle #2 doji). Then the bulls counter attacked (candle #3) and managed to drove the bears above the first candle's high. The bulls have the ball and they are in the bears penalty box.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_boss.png Size: 29 KB


On the Worker level we see that the last week was very bullish. The price touched the psycho level 1.0600. The rejection was weak and probably next week we might see a "battle" at the psycho level.

In the event of a strong rejection next week, I've moved my SL under the minor support from the worker. This will lock in profits equivalent to 50% of the initial risk and still leaving enough space to the trade to develop.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_worker.png Size: 25 KB


Too bad that I dont know what was the real volume this week. If the bullish move was made on a high volume then we should expect weak resistance until the next major R level. If the volume was weak, then we could see a strong rejection next trading days.

Have a nice weekend all!
  • #9,432
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:12am Jan 23, 2010 3:12am
Nice one hcristea, once again it proves how reliable are Weekly & Monthly SR levels.

P.S. Before completely cornering the bulls I would like to see the ball back down a little for us late comers.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #9,433
  • Jan 23, 2010 4:15am Jan 23, 2010 4:15am
Quoting soso
P.S. Before completely cornering the bulls I would like to see the ball back down a little for us late comers.
If the price goes makes a wobble or a retrace and a PA for LONG, I don't think I will add to the current position while its between major SR lines and inside October's Hammer because its a high risk zone. If the price will make a retrace, it will most probably hit my SL
  • #9,434
  • Jan 23, 2010 5:52am Jan 23, 2010 5:52am
The problem is mine - Lack of Discipline!
[/quote]

This to me is the great lesson here, Strat has not blamed anyone but himself, no news report or anything. He is the captain of his ship. we all need to take note and learn.
  • #9,435
  • Edited 6:20pm Jan 23, 2010 10:11am | Edited 6:20pm
There have been some interesting posts on GBPCHF showing the retesting of the R line around 1.7003 (and thanks to Blackeagle for suggesting the R line could be sloped downwards! Now why didn't I think of that?).

I've had a look at the Daily chart and am sorely tempted to go short at 1.6739 which is 10 pips below the shadow of yesterday's candle (daily) with a SL at 1.6937 (10 pips above wick of the candle) but there are some issues.

I've missed the first day of the drop! [I tend to do that quite a lot as I am 'waiting for confirmation'...!!!.]

The MAs are not far below the current price, and first major Support (TP1) is at 1.6526 which is only 213 pips Reward for a Risk of 198. Not particularly favourable therefore. It is nearly at the 50 Fib level.

[There is a minor SR line at 1.6704 but I think this can be ignored as it hasn't been at any major SHs or SLs.]

However there could be TP2 at the next Support at 1.6335. This is MUCH better as a R:R.

Weekly chart shows a SS after a pretty consistent range since the end of Sept 2009.

Monthly? well it's not the end of the month yet, but seems to be developing a spinning top doji........... this may change of course.

I am tempted to enter two Shorts for minimum bet size, one with a Limit to TP1 and the second to TP2 - or to let run.

Any thoughts on this gratefully received!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.d.23.01.2010.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.w.23.01.2010.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.m.23.01.2010.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #9,436
  • Jan 23, 2010 1:08pm Jan 23, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
There have been some interesting posts on GBPCHF showing the retesting of the R line around 1.7003 (and thanks to Blackeagle for suggesting the R line could be sloped downwards! Now why didn't I think of that?).

I've had a look at the Daily chart and am sorely tempted to go short at 1.6739 which is 10 pips below the shadow of yesterday's candle (daily) with a SL at 1.6937 (10 pips above wick of the candle) but there are some issues....
this seems like a very tempting trade especially if you traded off the first BEEB

i feel its a little late to enter now because i think that a safe SL should be placed above the resistance of 1.7000 which would give a crappy r:r

although it does seem likely that the price will go to the bottom of the range at least to the first tp

also there is some minor suport at 1.6700 or so that you would be trading right in to
  • #9,437
  • Jan 23, 2010 4:23pm Jan 23, 2010 4:23pm
Just wanted to say a big thankyou to everyone involved in this thread. I have been studying and practicing and I think improving.
I remember Strat saying that the AAA+ setups "jump out at you", and I had that experience for the first time with GBP/CHF last week. It is so gratifying to see things work out the way you visualise them. So, thanks again, and I am now on my second "jump out" trade, I know it will work out great. I wouldnt have been able to do it with out this thread.
  • #9,438
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:05pm Jan 23, 2010 9:05pm
Hi Strat,

I have been lurking and skulking around these parts for a couple of months now, signed up late last year and still working my way thru the thread - I thought it was time to come clean and say G'day.

I am also an engineer and I am looking forward to the celebration of my 3rd 20th birthday later this year. I don't play the guitar, but I do have several cartons of vinyl that I hoarded waiting for the technology to catch up - now I just need to create the spare time to convert it into digital format to play on my IPod that may buy real soon!

I came across your thread around 12 months ago; I read it and it all made wonderfully good sense. I then continued to do what I have done for the past 5 years - chase the seductive short term goddess of FX. So, here I am, exhausted by the chase once more but, this time, I REALLY MEAN IT, I am ready to embrace the LONG TERM STRESS FREE TRADING mantra.

I liken it to giving up smoking; I used to tell people that I liked the giving up process so much that I did it four times; I now know that on three of those times I left a tiny little escape route in the back of my mind and that on the fourth time I nailed the door firmly shut. That was 25 years ago and it has remained nailed shut since.

I look forward to telling the same story about putting my addiction to short term trading behind me as I sit back and relax in the glow of my successful long term stress free trading environment.

Thanks for starting this thread and thanks for continuing to be an inspiration in the way that you keep building the resource and manage it on a daily basis (this week's description of your JPY trade is an excellent example - I have never before seen such open honesty in a trading forum and I salute you for it).

Back to the reading and learning and practising.

Regards,
Mike
  • #9,439
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:52pm Jan 23, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting patrick25
It is classic PA and Blackeagle style combine.
Based on daily, entry would be at the open of Friday's bar due to Bearish Engulfing at resistance (if you use H4 based on my previous posts, entry was at 1.6964 or 1.6910 - depending on your risk profile). Entry on Monday is a bit late, IMO.
  • #9,440
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:58pm Jan 23, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting Donadoney
Blackeagle and Strat thanks

The value of your training cannot be expressed.

I still have a ways to go, but I see some more light.

Hopefully the government doesn't destroy our leveraging ability.

for now I'll keep learning!
You are all welcome.

If that is the case, then you need to decrease your trade size, if can't increase your account size, a kind of risk control, lol.
4 traders viewing now