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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,421
  • Edited 10:31am Jan 22, 2010 10:18am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting NightMoves
I totally agree I think the trend collapse trading is a great method, I have not tried it yet, I would need to practice that before I take it live. But if you catch it just right it can be an enormous amount of pips in a very short time.

Trends slowly work their way to the final destination and when they get there, the fall with a huge momentum. I am just not familiar enough with the technique yet. So I need to learn a little more about it, but I do have an interest in learning that for sure.

--NM
Absolutely. Those SLANTED TRENDLINE is the major clue. I mean, look at every major severe moves in the forex market...more likely than not, it is the breakdown of H4, DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY slanted trendline(ESPECIALLY, if those breakdowns were triggered by FUNDAMENTAL data.)

But i dont do it the way hector does it though. I do it the way the guy TIM from england does it in this hector's video.

Inserted Video


My reasons are two fold

(#1) In hector's trend collapse system, he doesnt first zoom in into lower time frame to get a trend in place after the major, big slanted trend has collapsed. That makes me very, very uncomfortable. In other trading setups, he wait for a trend to form, but in his trend collapse system, he doesnt. Which is weird to me. I ONLY TRADE WITH THE TREND.

(#2)Also, hector uses trend collapse on any time frame from m30 to monthly. I dont like that. At all. I prefer to only take seriously the H4, daily, weekly, monthly slanted trendline collapse, and with setup chart at m30 and h1(only after a 3SMA trend has formed in these lower timeframes) following the higher time frame slanted trend has collapsed. Anyways, like i said, tim from england captures my exact approach.

Inserted Video
  • #2,422
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:39am Jan 22, 2010 10:39am
Quoting EntropyLad
Absolutely. Those SLANTED TRENDLINE is the major clue. I mean, look at every major severe moves in the forex market...more likely than not, it is the breakdown of H4, DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY slanted trendline(ESPECIALLY, if those breakdowns were triggered by FUNDAMENTAL data.)

But i dont do it the way hector does it though. I do it the way the guy TIM from england does it in this hector's video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIh5J...eature=related

My reasons are two fold

(#1) In hector's trend collapse system, he doesnt...
I have seen Hectors method of trend collapse trading, I think you have the right idea, I traded the AUDJPY that way a week or so ago, during the Asian session and it worked out really well. I have not tried Hectors way of doing it, also what I look for is to see how far the trend retraced, to help determine of the trend is done with, I use the last big retracement depth, if the next retracement in what looks like the trend is coming to an end retraces past the last retracement of the trend I have been following then I consider the trend over and time to start looking for entries going the other way.

--NM
  • #2,423
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:45am Jan 22, 2010 10:45am
Quoting NightMoves
Those slanted trend lines seem to be quite the clue dont they? I just went and looked at several different charts and each one of the trends fell apart after the slanted tren line was breached...I need to investigate that further, that is extremely interesting....

--NM
I have seen 600 pips gain within 2 days. The standard ADR doesnt apply. In fact, based on what i have seen, that is generally when ADR gets beaten senseless like a redheaded stepchild. The price pattern projection tends to work in setting TP, but in about, say, 40% of cases, that gets disrespected too--with price galloping forward for 5 to 7 trading days like a wild african gazelle on steriods. Especially, if the break of the slanted trendline was precipitated by fundamental data. There are times, when my 1st TP is actually the price pattern projection, i will just leave the remaining 1/2 there. And in very some strong cases, the moves will go all the way back to DAILY or WEEKLY 50% or 61% fib level in two weeks.
  • #2,424
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:47am Jan 22, 2010 10:47am
Quoting NightMoves
I have seen Hectors method of trend collapse trading, I think you have the right idea, I traded the AUDJPY that way a week or so ago, during the Asian session and it worked out really well. I have not tried Hectors way of doing it, also what I look for is to see how far the trend retraced, to help determine of the trend is done with, I use the last big retracement depth, if the next retracement in what looks like the trend is coming to an end retraces past the last retracement of the trend I have been following then I consider the trend over and...
I get your point. Solid reasoning. Of course, how well the price action breaches the 50sma and how long it stays above it are also indicative. Good points all around, nightmoves.
I have learned a lot here in a couple of days. Thank you. Thanks too to CUSTOS.
  • #2,425
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:54am Jan 22, 2010 10:54am
Quoting EntropyLad
I get your point. Solid reasoning. Of course, how well the price action breaches the 50sma and how long it stays above it are also indicative. Good points all around, nightmoves.
I have learned a lot here in a couple of days. Thank you. Thanks too to CUSTOS.
Yes there are some pretty smart traders out here for sure. Had I left that trade open and I did think about my lot size was reduced of course, but right now that trade would be around 400 pips. But it got into a range type of atmosphere and I decided not to keep playing with it. But that mehtod does work without a doubt when you can see all the signs, and frankly those signs seems to devlop on every single collapse.

--NM
  • #2,426
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:11am Jan 22, 2010 11:11am
Quoting EntropyLad
I get your point. Solid reasoning. Of course, how well the price action breaches the 50sma and how long it stays above it are also indicative. Good points all around, nightmoves.
I have learned a lot here in a couple of days. Thank you. Thanks too to CUSTOS.
I think that's a good approach.
Also another thing I like to do is to look at counter-trend trades (h1 to h4) at daily to monthly S/R's. Which means at ranges or flat top or flat bottom triangles, and then instead of taking the continuation signal, I took a bpc against the trend. But just make sure to take off some very fast, since it can reverse on you fast and hit your stop loss. But on occasions I almost caught the bottom or top with that approach. (but very high risk)
  • #2,427
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:15am Jan 22, 2010 11:15am
Quoting NightMoves
Yes there are some pretty smart traders out here for sure. Had I left that trade open and I did think about my lot size was reduced of course, but right now that trade would be around 400 pips. But it got into a range type of atmosphere and I decided not to keep playing with it. But that mehtod does work without a doubt when you can see all the signs, and frankly those signs seems to devlop on every single collapse.

--NM
Nightmoves, are you talking about the AUD/JPY one from DEC? That one was glorious. The DOWNWARD moving slanted trendline on the DAILY collapsed on the 29th at 81.50ish. Zoom into the 1HR time frame to get an upward moving 3SMA. That baby didnt take a stop until 86.00ish. Of course, the trigger chart was 15mins(since 3SMA upward alignment was on 1hr). Some nice +400 pips gain there.
In retrospect, i guess i could have taken the trade on the 30mins/5mins and get even a better entry.
  • #2,428
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:18am Jan 22, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Custos
I think that's a good approach.
Also another thing I like to do is to look at counter-trend trades (h1 to h4) at daily to monthly S/R's. Which means at ranges or flat top or flat bottom triangles, and then instead of taking the continuation signal, I took a bpc against the trend. But just make sure to take off some very fast, since it can reverse on you fast and hit your stop loss. But on occasions I almost caught the bottom or top with that approach. (but very high risk)

CUSTOS, that is too scary for me! I leave that to the jedi masters(custos and nightmoves).
  • #2,429
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:23am Jan 22, 2010 11:23am
Quoting EntropyLad
I have seen 600 pips gain within 2 days. The standard ADR doesnt apply. In fact, based on what i have seen, that is generally when ADR gets beaten senseless like a redheaded stepchild. The price pattern projection tends to work in setting TP, but in about, say, 40% of cases, that gets disrespected too--with price galloping forward for 5 to 7 trading days like a wild african gazelle on steriods. Especially, if the break of the slanted trendline was precipitated by fundamental data. There are times, when my 1st TP is actually the price pattern...
Here is just such an example in the EURGBP pair hourly chart, the trend has been in place for about 8 days, now look at how I have the chart marked up and you can see how the trend picked momentum just before the collapse, then how cleared the last retracement of the main trend after the collpase. That is basically what AUDJPY had done I traded that.

So yes it does work, and it would have worked here as well. So you can trade these trends as they are trending and you can trade them as they collapse.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Trend collapse.png Size: 111 KB
  • #2,430
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:36am Jan 22, 2010 11:36am
Quoting EntropyLad
Nightmoves, are you talking about the AUD/JPY one from DEC? That one was glorious. The DOWNWARD moving slanted trendline on the DAILY collapsed on the 29th at 81.50ish. Zoom into the 1HR time frame to get an upward moving 3SMA. That baby didnt take a stop until 86.00ish. Of course, the trigger chart was 15mins(since 3SMA upward alignment was on 1hr). Some nice +400 pips gain there.
In retrospect, i guess i could have taken the trade on the 30mins/5mins and get even a better entry.
No this was about a week or two ago and some where in this thread is the posting of it, however it was out of context from they way we normally trade on this thread and created some confusion as to why I took the trade and I probabaly should not have posted it, so I have not posted anymore like that, but I do trade the collapse from time to time.

--NM
  • #2,431
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:54am Jan 22, 2010 11:54am
Quoting NightMoves
Here is just such an example in the EURGBP pair hourly chart, the trend has been in place for about 8 days, now look at how I have the chart marked up and you can see how the trend picked momentum just before the collapse, then how cleared the last retracement of the main trend after the collpase. That is basically what AUDJPY had done I traded that.

So yes it does work, and it would have worked here as well. So you can trade these trends as they are trending and you can trade them as they collapse.

--NM
I agree with pretty much everything you wrote, except that i dont go lower than H4 with my major trendline collapse. I would have drawn the trendline in H4, then zoom into M30 for my 3SMA alignment going upwards. The below charts explain it. The first one is the 4HR trendline, the second one is the M30 chart with the 3sma alignment, naturally, i will then go to 5mins timeframe to take my entry as per 1,2,3 formation trade or bpc trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h4.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp m30.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #2,432
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:17pm Jan 22, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting NightMoves
Here is just such an example in the EURGBP pair hourly chart, the trend has been in place for about 8 days, now look at how I have the chart marked up and you can see how the trend picked momentum just before the collapse, then how cleared the last retracement of the main trend after the collpase. That is basically what AUDJPY had done I traded that.

So yes it does work, and it would have worked here as well. So you can trade these trends as they are trending and you can trade them as they collapse.

--NM
NIGHTMOVES, This is the slanted trendline collapse of your EUR/GBP trade.

I have attached the H4(1ST CHART) AND THE 1-HR setup chart (2nd chart).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h4 trendline.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 trendline.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #2,433
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:03pm Jan 22, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting EntropyLad
NIGHTMOVES, This is the slanted trendline collapse of your EUR/GBP trade.

I have attached the H4(1ST CHART) AND THE 1-HR setup chart (2nd chart).
I just pulled the trend line from a different time frame in my example, what I was getting at with that example is almost every trend that I have looked at this morning had gained momentum just before the collpase, and that is something i never really paid attention too, then they kind of flat line and then start trending in the opposite direction, so basically the slope of the line seens to steepen just before the collpase.

I need to look into this further but it looks like this may be the case more than not the case so I need to look deeper into this to make sure that really is the case. Make sense?

--NM
  • #2,434
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:13pm Jan 22, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting NightMoves
I just pulled the trend line from a different time frame in my example, what I was getting at with that example is almost every trend that I have looked at this morning had gained momentum just before the collpase, and that is something i never really paid attention too, then they kind of flat line and then start trending in the opposite direction, so basically the slope of the line seens to steepen just before the collpase.

I need to look into this further but it looks like this may be the case more than not the case so I need to look deeper...
Yeah. I read about this in one of those books on technical analysis...in stocks trading, sometimes they will form gaps after gaps, furious runs, then violently collapse. They call them exhaustion gaps. Since gaps rarely occur in forex(except on weekends), i guess the equivalent will be strong moves like you said. I also get the concept of close above the previous retracement high as in the EURGBP(i think victor sperandeo does that with trendlines).
  • #2,435
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:20pm Jan 22, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Yeah. I read about this in one of those books on technical analysis...in stocks trading, sometimes they will form gaps after gaps, furious runs, then violently collapse. They call them exhaustion gaps. Since gaps rarely occur in forex(except on weekends), i guess the equivalent will be strong moves like you said. I also get the concept of close above the previous retracement high as in the EURGBP(i think victor sperandeo does that with trendlines).
We are probabaly reinventing the wheel here because I am sure all this stuff has to be documented somewhere...LOL

--NM
  • #2,436
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:30pm Jan 22, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting NightMoves
We are probabaly reinventing the wheel here because I am sure all this stuff has to be documented somewhere...LOL

--NM
haha, that for sure, e.g. S/R levels have probably been the most obvious things in trading ever since the invention of the financial markets, but due to all the technical indicators and all this other bogus out there, it's hard to find the really good and important information (like trading off those levles) to become a good trader. If I had started right away with S/R levels, I would have avoided a lot of losers...
  • #2,437
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:15pm Jan 22, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting EntropyLad
UPDATE on the USD/JPY weekly that i sold short at 90.40 earlier during the day.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2383
Anyways, closed out 1/3rd at 89.90 for + 50 pips. There is some resistance on the daily chart at 90.00. Thinking i should locked in some gains here. I genuinely dont expect USDJPY to go all the way to 86.60(that just FEELS too much for me.), but i am willing to leave the last 1/3rd around and see how far it can go down. The second 1/3rd will be offloaded at 88.60 for a +180 pips.
Just checking in on the USDJPY weekly/daily short trade initiated at 90.40. Market close now at 89.846. The 90.00 area was resilient. We will see how it goes next week. How it handles the 89.50 and 89.00. My second 1/3rd target is 88.60 for +180pips. Long way to go down. The 3rd 1/3rd price target is 86.60, which is a galaxy away from here at +380pips. (i seriously doubt it will go that far).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2384
  • #2,438
  • Jan 22, 2010 5:27pm Jan 22, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Just checking in on the USDJPY weekly/daily short trade initiated at 90.40. Market close now at 89.846. The 90.00 area was resilient. We will see how it goes next week. How it handles the 89.50 and 89.00. My second 1/3rd target is 88.60 for +180pips. Long way to go down. The 3rd 1/3rd price target is 86.60, which is a galaxy away from here at +380pips. (i seriously doubt it will go that far).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2384
It's hard to beat a good trade! It is kind of fun to lock in some profits and let the trend work its magic for days on end...
  • #2,439
  • Jan 22, 2010 7:01pm Jan 22, 2010 7:01pm
Thanks... I did look in several thread but I do not find.

Anyway... What is "rules" ( if there are ) in your method ?
Do you use CUrrency Meter yet?

Thanks in advance..


Quoting NightMoves
It's hard to beat a good trade! It is kind of fun to lock in some profits and let the trend work its magic for days on end...
  • #2,440
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:49pm Jan 22, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting AlbertoFX
Thanks... I did look in several thread but I do not find.

Anyway... What is "rules" ( if there are ) in your method ?
Do you use CUrrency Meter yet?

Thanks in advance..
Hi AlbertoFX,
If you go through the first few pages of the thread you will find the rules we use in this method, they are pretty simple rules and the simple moving averages are set at 30,50,100 all on the close. I really do not use the currency meter too much because I have all my charts setup so I can see the trends fairly quick across the board.

--NM
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