Technical Analysis Fallacy

Thanks Fti for the music,

Few days ago I thought of renting dvd to watch Born free because I heard the song from radio, well I love animal.
And also My way is one of my favourite song.

Thank you,

Hello Pete, if you want, write me email here, i will send you something.. [email protected]

thank you acim,

i missed that,

regards, pax

Hi all!
Pardon this long post, i'm just want to contribute a little of my personal experience and hope someone can guide me in the right direction. Enough of being a lurker!

This is my second post on this thread ( and my only 2 posts! ) because i was busy reading through the whole thread as well as trying to absorb as much as i can. Currently on pg 132 and still going. I first got interested in Forex when my brother went for a 3day course that he paid $2000+ for. Well we all know what comes out of that do we. Let's just say he ended up in the 95% bracket and gave up. However this event piqued my interest in Forex and since then. I've read many, many books on Forex education, trading psychology etc since i was 18years old ( 22 now btw ) and took part in 1 Forex workshop offered by my school. Which of course turned out to be nothing more than what i learned from reading.

( Btw the course notes from my brother's workshop taught nothing but MA crossovers and confirmation signals from RSI etc. Basically i could have took all this info off FF and sold it to anyone if i have the gift of the gab. )

I've read many threads on FF, basically Feb's long term trading, Billyray Valentine, James 16, Strat's, Jacko's thread and i found that, I do not like the idea, of leaving my trades unattended. Guess that's me!

Then i stumbled upon this thread. After reading fti's thread, i must say the first thought on how he uses his MO and MM was " Wow, whatever he is teaching is basically the opposite of whatever i learned from all the Forex books i read. But it makes more sense than everything i've ever learned! " . And i totally agree with fti when i questioned myself deep inside. Why do i want the indicators on my screen? I found out the answer was
1. Confirmation.
2. Something to put the blame on other than me.
3. So that i can act according to the signals blindly and just place orders and earn money. Whee no hard work or pain on my part!
4. Lastly, so that i can act smart and make my chart look pretty and intimidating to the uninitiated.
After this one of many A-HA moments, began my journey of devouring more of this thread and acquiring more knowledge.

I know his thread keeps talking about the 'dance', and for the life of me i cannot figure it out, ( i'm pretty analytical by nature ) i kept thinking there must be some secret...must be! And the more i read the more frustrated i got, because i still cannot figure out the dance! When do i know the retracements reversals etc are coming??? How do i know it's a retracement before the continual of a trend and not a reversal??? His MM strategies and MO made sense to me though, as well as his AOW applications and i totally agree nimbleness is key. I kept thinking about the dance until one day, i was just sitting there imagining 2 person learning to dance, just by listening to music alone. That's when my another A-HA moment came.

NO ONE LEARNS HOW TO DANCE BY LISTENING TO MUSIC ALONE. They have to go through the dance steps and learn. Step-by-step. People learn by stumbling and stepping on people's toes. By dancing to the wrong tempo and re-adjusting themselves.

This lead to my final lightbulb switching on. The brightest of all. Like a stadium spotlight. For close to four years, i have been reading and acquiring knowledge about Forex ( akin to the music part ). With little or no application over the years ( no practical dancing ).

And so last week i decided to take the plunge. I tried demo-ing using fti's teachings. It was literally an EPIC FAILURE. I made all the mistakes i could possibly make. From overexposure during rescues to wrong timing of rescues to riding the wrong trend and making myself believe i was correct by referring to higher and higher TFs. Not to mention my totally off timed entries and attack sequences ( laughing to self now. )
BUT, most importantly, i learned. All this made me focus, and i'm not doing anything just by going through the motion. I do not know how to explain this feeling, but a good analogy would be something like, comparing slow jogging to a full 2.4km sprint. The latter literally makes you feel alive and tests your resolve. Maybe that's what fti meant when he said he threw his junior dealers into the deep end.

As of now, yes i'm still dancing, albeit badly, i still dont know how to feel between retracements or reversals, but hey i know i'm trying and improving. Maybe i still cannot feel the pulse of the market to dance correctly, everything might be ill-timed, but i just need to live long enough to figure it out. Maybe i'll even start a trade journal on FF just to motivate myself and keep track of my own results.

Again sorry for this long post. Any constructive criticisms are much welcome.

PS: I found this quote by another poster in another thread. Found it real meaningful and decided to share it here. It's my current wall paper now. LOL.

'Technique can be taught and learned by anyone. Mastery can be taught by few and unfortunately learned by even fewer. Experience has always been the teacher of mastery. I seek to learn from their ( in this case fti and others who have already learned ) experience. There is no rush. A million dollars will not make a person happy. You will discover that. A million dollars or 20 million dollars can only give you time. It is up to you to spend the time wisely to make you happy.'

Last of all. Thank you fti from the bottom of my heart.

Thank you for the long post and welcome.

I would suggest you start by studying simple price action. If you read a book (like the one by Nison) you will see that the patterns repeat but they are not 100% but is good for starting out. There are also many threads on FF that are devoted to PA. Try not to get excited with patterns because you will start to see them before they form (and be wrong about it). This is just my recommendation, not fti's. He recommends reading Papermoney and internalizing AOW.

If you read the thread you will see that fti mentions some patterns only briefly. He also mentions that it works best when they are compounding. I believe there is no magic there and you can start to see the right "clues" only with time and experience. Try not to be rigid. It's hard to leave the wishful thinking at home.

Welcome !
it is nice to see new member , if u work hard and keep practicing you ll get there eventually , just keep an open mind to anything the market teaches you

the thing about retracement or reversal is ... it doesnt really matter ...
take a guess and play along , if it proves to be otherwise , minimize loss and turn or whatever strategy comes up in ur mind to make profit out of it ...

This question is like the holy grail.. I believe it is the most important thing in trading. Let's see if someone can really answer it.

Piscicida,

Nice post... Just remember its a Marathon not sprint...also trust me take your time as we all have enough time .... learn in steps... make 1 cent ( i know what i am saying).. 5 cent.. 1$... you will get there...


V

[quote=piscicida;3392074]Hi all!
Pardon this long post, i'm just want to contribute a little of my personal experience and hope someone can guide me in the right direction. Enough of being a lurker!

quote]

Welcome and thanks for your thoughful post. The key to success here is hard work, thoughful questions, hard work, practice, and hard work. Pattern recognition will come, and everyone here has a different way of looking at pullbacks and reversals. One final thought: PA is the boss, so don't let your brain get in the way (don't think what the market will do, take what the charts gives you). The sooner you get that, the better. Best of luck and look forward to seeing you around.

Hello. I am a begginer, but : Trade as much as you can. Trade demo. Dont think that you are good or bad in some moments, it is a long way. Replace fear with solving problems... When it wont be working, allow yourself to relax. Dont be so happy, when you win some trades. Dont be so unhappy when you lose. You will slowly controll your emotions when trading. Your health is important, so dont have nerves from trading. It is just training. This all is also, what i have to solve. Good luck.

not able to make money today , guess calling it a night ,
good weekend to all

let it goo...

Good weekend...

V

The dance is simply moving with the market, adding when it builds momentum, decreasing when slows and waiting for the next step. Think waltz.

You don't know the difference at first, you just know the original move is losing steam.

Yes, it requires a feel for adding and taking profits, which will come by experience.

regards,

Why would you want to keep a bad position? Rescue bad timed entries if able, if price violates your current move, you can look to the next higher timeframe to see if you are still in trend and likely spots to try to mount rescue, in doing so you can guesstimate the needed resources and time needed --- is it feasible.

If the answer is no, before it costs you any more... kill it. (as he drags his thumb across his throat)

Hi ALL,

A word of caution.

Many here emailed me regarding broker access.
Some thinks I advocate using oanda as prime broker.
Please be advised that that is very far from the truth.

Just that you are not mislead. Please be aware that oanda is only an electronic price feed. They are fully automated and have no other facilities to access market if their platform goes down. As some may experienced demoing them , their feed went down today. Some wise learners had millions of demo dollars in the open with no way of getting in or out of the market.
So I advise you not to put all your eggs in one basket. Although they may be providing very fine spreads for trades. It is ill advised that you credit risk exposure to them, be all your capital.
In fact, it is most prudent to have a few access to the market place just in case the feed poops. I leave you to chose who your better counterparties should be. This is because the retail market place is still in infancy and none of the broking counterparties I am privy to, have any time tested legacy of reliability for robust credit risk. The spots on the banks have that, if you chose to trade without margining, but their price spreads may not be as sexy.


regards

Oh and regarding the markets today. I was questioned regarding why I believe that the usd had hit the fan. Fundamentally its is very obvious, when a people without hands on experience tries to tweak existing musical instruments.(althought some leaders are jack of all trades, its hard to expect them to be masters of all, esp with ineffective advisers) It gets all out of tune. Any way what ever the bias, you need to dance the tunes appropriately. The dance today was a rapre of the cable crosses. Nothing new, just tricks from the old book of strategies in eventless(newsless) days

Is this Oanda, Asia Pacific Ltd.?

Have a great weekend everyone

them anywhere is still them. Doesn't matter where the ops, still under the same board of managers.

regards

PS: and middle fingers for the stupid english city official who has no business commenting on monetary issue of which is out of his jurisdiction. He really really screwed the crosses. May be he was too free and that the city should heap stuff on his office to keep him busy. My feelings is that the managers of the iron lady should give him a tight slap , to set precedence for other morons to do the same. ya i was very long the cable crosses, evidently.

is there more to say?
I agree:
dance, baby, dance

couldn't agree more. Puts it all in one quote. If you want to forecast the markets then go get your audience and speak - there's always someone to believe. We are something else - we are TRADERS!

Hi fti, I missed this story completely. Do you have more details on this? Not the middle finger part - LOL - I get that part. Most importantly, how are you doing? I hope you are well, and I miss your daily leadership here. Have a good weekend.