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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,401
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:10am Jan 22, 2010 8:10am
Quoting pdean123
I have been in EU short on three separate entries: 12/29, 1/4, 1/5. Entering again today. See chart.
Hi pdean,
There have been a few places one could have grabbed a few pips, I am waiting for the one good shot and I think it is getting close.

--NM
  • #2,402
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:13am Jan 22, 2010 8:13am
Quoting pdean123
I have been in EU short on three separate entries: 12/29, 1/4, 1/5. Entering again today. See chart.

Thanks. Nice to know that works for you. I personally dont do indicators. They give me headaches. Migraine headaches. I just like to read price action only.

Good to know it works for you. Keep up the good work.
  • #2,403
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:16am Jan 22, 2010 8:16am
OK I expected a pull back there not a massive retreat...


--NM
  • #2,404
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:25am Jan 22, 2010 8:25am
Quoting EntropyLad
CAD red news is coming out...anybody plan on trading "blend the news" strategy with it?

Any of the CADs with the right trending setup will do. I like to do this on friday for RED labeled news.
I do not trade the news at all, I do not even blend the news. Althoug that technique is a little safer I still avoid the news like the plague.

--NM
  • #2,405
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:26am Jan 22, 2010 8:26am
Quoting NightMoves
OK I expected a pull back there not a massive retreat...


--NM
I notice that all the EUR are rising. Same with the CHFs. They've been beaten senseless all week, hell, even more than one week. I guess some profit taking is in order, especially, since this is friday.

The CADs are being demolished. CHF beats, the EUR beats, and the CADs are been beaten instead; this friday, at least.
  • #2,406
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:34am Jan 22, 2010 8:34am
Quoting EntropyLad
I notice that all the EUR are rising. Same with the CHFs. They've been beaten senseless all week, hell, even more than one week. I guess some profit taking is in order, especially, since this is friday.

The CADs are being demolished. CHF beats, the EUR beats, and the CADs are been beaten instead; this friday, at least.
I notice that, on the 4hr chart the EURUSD pair actually could come up some more to make this a little more believeable...we are not even near the 38% fib yet, on the hourly we are at the 50% level.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Friday Mahem.png Size: 41 KB
  • #2,407
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:34am Jan 22, 2010 8:34am
Quoting EntropyLad
CAD red news is coming out...anybody plan on trading "blend the news" strategy with it?

Any of the CADs with the right trending setup will do. I like to do this on friday for RED labeled news.
yeah, it's a good strategy, but more often than not I don't get filled where I want to get filled, so I also avoid news items, but once in a time I try it and find that I don't get filled again, haha. (At least with the red labeled news).
  • #2,408
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:35am Jan 22, 2010 8:35am
Quoting NightMoves
I notice that, on the 4hr chart the EURUSD pair actually could come up some more to make this a little more believeable...we are not even near the 38% fib yet, on the hourly we are at the 50% level.

--NM
yeah, I will leave eur/usd alone. bad PA and bad time.
  • #2,409
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:40am Jan 22, 2010 8:40am
Quoting Custos
yeah, I will leave eur/usd alone. bad PA and bad time.
I am still going to watch it, the NY session imo does not start moving the market until about an hour after it opens, give it another 30 to 45 minutes then it should start moving in the direction it is going to go.

--NM
  • #2,410
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:42am Jan 22, 2010 8:42am
Quoting NightMoves
EntropyLad,

I do not even trade the LOB without a BPC of some kind, I have to have that pullback or I will let just sit back and watch it go.

The flag formation on the 4 hour chart is looking really good, using a price pattern target which I use quite a bit this could be a nice trade setup if it follows through, about 350 pips could be in the works here or more, I always set my targets a little short just in case.

--NM
Absolutely. Everything i trade has to have a BPC...but there is a 1,2,3 setup and there is a BPC setup.
  • #2,411
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:48am Jan 22, 2010 8:48am
Nightmoves,

On the issue of price pattern projection. I do not normally use it(price pattern projection for my 2nd PT.) unless i am trading the formation of new, new trend at a smaller time frame(m30, h1) against the breakdown of major trend on a higher time frame(h4, daily, monthly, weekly). This is the time that i have seen price pattern projections works wonderfully and consistently. Otherwise, i just aim for ADR, RN, retracement high/low close for my 1st PT and 2nd PT. Let me show you a hector video of what i mean; it was a trade taken by a guy named Tim from England.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIh5JrGlufc&feature=related

Hector thinks it is high risk trade. I CERTAINLY DISAGREE with hector. In fact, i look for trades like that to take. I prefer them a lot. The reason? When those MAJOR trends breaks down, the reversal tends to be very strong and powerful and well sustained for the most part. Those trades ALMOST ALWAYS reach their price pattern projections and well beyond. I guess it is a trend collapse kind of a trade. Anyways, here is the video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIh5JrGlufc&feature=related

I do EXACTLY the same thing that Tim from England does. Those are my best winning trades. I look for breakdown of MAJOR TREND in the H4, DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY timeframe then trade the formation of a new trending SMAs on M30, H1 that is running counter to the higher time frame trend.
  • #2,412
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:01am Jan 22, 2010 9:01am
Quoting EntropyLad
Nightmoves,

On the issue of price pattern projection. I do not normally use it(price pattern projection for my 2nd PT.) unless i am trading the formation of new, new trend at a smaller time frame(m30, h1) against the breakdown of major trend on a higher time frame(h4, daily, monthly, weekly). This is the time that i have seen price pattern projections works wonderfully and consistently. Otherwise, i just aim for ADR, RN, retracement high/low close for my 1st PT and 2nd PT. Let me show you a hector video of what i mean; it...
I will watch those this morning at sometime, I use the pattern projections actually quite abit, however when I use those I also plan to be in the trade awhile, I may let it run several days at time and at other times I may close it down at the ADR or what ever target I set for the day.

So for me it depends on how well the trend is established, my pattern projections are usually based on 1 hr time frame. If the target gets hit and the PA is still looking good, then I will use a projection again until I reach a major S/R level and then I will reasses the whole situation.

--NM
  • #2,413
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:05am Jan 22, 2010 9:05am
I would think the NY session should be waking up within the next 10 minutes or so if they are going to do anything with this at all...

--NM
  • #2,414
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:15am Jan 22, 2010 9:15am
Not really coming down with any momentum is it?

--NM
  • #2,415
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:21am Jan 22, 2010 9:21am
Quoting NightMoves
Not really coming down with any momentum is it?

--NM
yeah, I would close it, if I were you. This is the wrong day and the wrong session to hang into it. But on the other hand i think it eventually will go down, but for that I rather wait for a new setup during london session.
  • #2,416
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:22am Jan 22, 2010 9:22am
I am losing confidence in this pair at a pretty fast rate here, I thought NY would bring a lot more to the table than that.....

--NM
  • #2,417
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:40am Jan 22, 2010 9:40am
I think what we really need here is a good break below 1.4050 level, after that I think it will be a pretty nice ride but right now we are really in the brush open the weekly chart and you will see it but I thought for sure we could get the 4050 level before we seen a bounce of any magnitude.

--NM
  • #2,418
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:51am Jan 22, 2010 9:51am
Quoting NightMoves
I will watch those this morning at sometime, I use the pattern projections actually quite abit, however when I use those I also plan to be in the trade awhile, I may let it run several days at time and at other times I may close it down at the ADR or what ever target I set for the day.

So for me it depends on how well the trend is established, my pattern projections are usually based on 1 hr time frame. If the target gets hit and the PA is still looking good, then I will use a projection again until I reach a major S/R level and then I will reasses...
Makes sense to me...i guess at some point, it boils down to finesse and how well each person can read price action.

What i was talking about earlier, about trend collapse and trending the opposite of it when the SMA on the lower time frame gets realigned. Here are a few examples from this week:

EUR/CAD, H4 time frame downtrending, M30 time frame uptrending. H4 slanted trendline was breached today and guess what? there was SMA alignment on M30, and price shoot up like crazy. In fact, the pattern price projection for this one is already reached at 1.4929

Another example: AUD/NZD. Daily pennant formation. The daily slanted trendline to the downside was breached to the upside on the 19th. The 3SMA came into alignment on M30 on the 20th. Price pattern projection reached.

CAD/CHF: DAILY slanted trendline to the upside was beached to the downside on the 20th. 3SMA aligned to the downside achieved on m30 on the 22nd(today).

EUR/AUD: the H4 slanted trendline to the downside was breached on the 21st to the upside. M30 SMA achieved upside alignment on 22nd.

GBP/CHF: the H4 slanted trendline to the upside was breached on the 21st to the downside. the M30 sma achieved upside alignment on the 22nd.

These are just a few from this week. There are more depending on how many pairs/crosses you trade. We are not even talking about the ones from last week or the week before that. Of course, you cant trade all of them because in certain cases there are (a)upcoming news, (b)the pullback didnt reach the area of confluence of dynamic support/resistance, etc. But you get the idea. In most cases than not, the breakout tends to be strong and pattern price projections get reached or exceeded.

My two cents

-Entropy

P.S. sometimes, i also like to look for ratio of candles. If it takes 6 candles to retrace from point A to point B, but it now take 3 candles to go from point B back to point A, it behooves me to think that the direction of those 3 candles(B to A) have greater momentum, as such, may breach, exceed and go further than previously expected point A. Especially, if the ratio is 50%(e.g. 6 to 3 candles) or lesser(e.g. 6 to 2 or 6 to 1 candles). Just my two cents from my little observations in the market.
  • #2,419
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:03am Jan 22, 2010 10:03am
Quoting EntropyLad
Makes sense to me...i guess at some point, it boils down to finesse and how well each person can read price action.

What i was talking about earlier, about trend collapse and trending the opposite of it when the SMA on the lower time frame gets realigned. Here are a few examples from this week:

EUR/CAD, H4 time frame downtrending, M30 time frame uptrending. H4 slanted trendline was breached today and guess what? there was SMA alignment on M30, and price shoot up like crazy. In fact, the pattern price projection for this one is already reached...
I totally agree I think the trend collapse trading is a great method, I have not tried it yet, I would need to practice that before I take it live. But if you catch it just right it can be an enormous amount of pips in a very short time.

Trends slowly work their way to the final destination and when they get there, the fall with a huge momentum. I am just not familiar enough with the technique yet. So I need to learn a little more about it, but I do have an interest in learning that for sure.

--NM
  • #2,420
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:12am Jan 22, 2010 10:12am
Quoting EntropyLad
Makes sense to me...i guess at some point, it boils down to finesse and how well each person can read price action.

What i was talking about earlier, about trend collapse and trending the opposite of it when the SMA on the lower time frame gets realigned. Here are a few examples from this week:

EUR/CAD, H4 time frame downtrending, M30 time frame uptrending. H4 slanted trendline was breached today and guess what? there was SMA alignment on M30, and price shoot up like crazy. In fact, the pattern price projection for this one is already reached...
Those slanted trend lines seem to be quite the clue dont they? I just went and looked at several different charts and each one of the trends fell apart after the slanted tren line was breached...I need to investigate that further, that is extremely interesting....

--NM
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