1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.
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DislikedThis could also be read from the Euro chart, i.e. that the Euro was weakening, no?Ignored
Disliked1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.Ignored
DislikedIndeed. I've been mentioning the 6273 level a few times. Old Fibonacci level (end of June high, 8 July low) that's been in play ever since. Check a daily chart and note how many times it's been daily high/low. Was also pivot for the mid December consolidation after the post NFP drop.Ignored
DislikedDarnit.....I keep forgetting about this level.....it would certainly have helped me to book those profits earlier and then go short earlier too......I've just closed my short after the news spike to the days open level at 6193......re-selling the retrace to the DP was a "news trade" option that I've passed on as I'm going out soon and have already exceeded my daily quota....I'll post a chart before I go....Ignored
Disliked1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.Ignored
DislikedFor those of you uncomfortable with buying at levels where price is seemingly moving in the wrong direction, 30 and 60 1min LWMAs may be an alternative.
Wait until the MAs have crossed and are sloping in the right direction, and buy on a pullback to the 30 period MA (at least).
Also works well when getting out of a congested area when there's a bit of a battle or dealer stop chasing going on around a level.
And it would have given a nice short in cable after 6273 held...Ignored
DislikedI ended up doing an hour or two painting so that the guys here will finish and don't have to come back Monday. Mrs V got a bit of the move (entry as per 1 of Islanders sell areas in above post) but exited pre news.
Topic for discussion? Yesterday and today the immediate pre-news trade gave the direction of the news move. Obviously this doesn't work all the time but do you guys have any idea how often?Ignored
DislikedInteresting question. Unlike in the equities markets, insider trading is not unlawful, and some people get hold of the data or have research staff who are good at estimating them. Remember Soros had a 'fly on the wall' inside when betting against BoE. I once talked to a trader who had done some statistical work around this for the NFP. The idea was that if the last 15m candle before 8.30am EST was long but not too long then one could enter in the direction of the candle with a certain stop.
Any other thoughts?Ignored
DislikedI suppose the only way is if in a trade say 30 mins before and up to either take partial profits and let balance run or let whole position run and keep track of results over a period.Ignored
DislikedThere's also the game of fading the initial moves. Dealers use the thin liquidity around news time to take out orders. NFP is notorious for that, Last time, for example, in the Euro it was up to 4410-15 then down to 4300, and then up again. Works similarly around other big news releases.Ignored
DislikedSure, just want to stress that this discussion would be for UK news events only. Probably not for interest rate news but the run of the mill items like this morning.
Cheers guys see you Monday.Ignored