Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 25 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #481
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:10am Jan 22, 2010 3:10am
1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.
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  • #482
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:13am Jan 22, 2010 3:13am
Quoting medici
This could also be read from the Euro chart, i.e. that the Euro was weakening, no?

Agreed, the LH at the 4150 level actually showed up better than swissys HL......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #483
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:19am Jan 22, 2010 3:19am
Quoting Vantage
1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.
Indeed. I've been mentioning the 6273 level a few times. Old Fibonacci level (end of June high, 8 July low) that's been in play ever since. Check a daily chart and note how many times it's been daily high/low. Was also pivot for the mid December consolidation after the post NFP drop.
  • #484
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:24am Jan 22, 2010 3:24am
For those of you uncomfortable with buying at levels where price is seemingly moving in the wrong direction, 30 and 60 1min LWMAs may be an alternative.

Wait until the MAs have crossed and are sloping in the right direction, and buy on a pullback to the 30 period MA (at least).

Also works well when getting out of a congested area when there's a bit of a battle or dealer stop chasing going on around a level.

And it would have given a nice short in cable after 6273 held...
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  • #485
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:38am Jan 22, 2010 3:38am
Quoting medici
Indeed. I've been mentioning the 6273 level a few times. Old Fibonacci level (end of June high, 8 July low) that's been in play ever since. Check a daily chart and note how many times it's been daily high/low. Was also pivot for the mid December consolidation after the post NFP drop.



Darnit.....I keep forgetting about this level.....it would certainly have helped me to book those profits earlier and then go short earlier too......I've just closed my short after the news spike to the days open level at 6193......re-selling the retrace to the DP was a "news trade" option that I've passed on as I'm going out soon and have already exceeded my daily quota....I'll post a chart before I go....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #486
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:43am Jan 22, 2010 3:43am
Quoting Islander
Darnit.....I keep forgetting about this level.....it would certainly have helped me to book those profits earlier and then go short earlier too......I've just closed my short after the news spike to the days open level at 6193......re-selling the retrace to the DP was a "news trade" option that I've passed on as I'm going out soon and have already exceeded my daily quota....I'll post a chart before I go....
Well done! I always have those fib levels on my charts...
  • #487
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:51am Jan 22, 2010 3:51am
Quoting medici
Well done! I always have those fib levels on my charts...

Thanks.....I'll now keep them on my charts too.....

Chart below with potential entry signals at the arrows, exits at the ticks and reversal at the cross....a good morning .....back for early NY.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #488
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:14am Jan 22, 2010 4:14am
Quoting Vantage
1hr chart, lots of upper wicks at 6275 where market profile also showing potential large vol resistence.
I ended up doing an hour or two painting so that the guys here will finish and don't have to come back Monday. Mrs V got a bit of the move (entry as per 1 of Islanders sell areas in above post) but exited pre news.

Topic for discussion? Yesterday and today the immediate pre-news trade gave the direction of the news move. Obviously this doesn't work all the time but do you guys have any idea how often?
  • #489
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:20am Jan 22, 2010 4:20am
awesome trading islander, me personally i took the break south of the 6250 level about 5 min or so before news time and closed it at the 25 level after seeing some stalling on the 1 min chart before news, then did a risky entry after news entering the break below 6200 and exited at 90 level, pretty much caught the bottom, but thats a littl too risky for my taste.
If you don't mind me asking, what is your daily quota trading this pair?
  • #490
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:25am Jan 22, 2010 4:25am
Quoting medici
For those of you uncomfortable with buying at levels where price is seemingly moving in the wrong direction, 30 and 60 1min LWMAs may be an alternative.

Wait until the MAs have crossed and are sloping in the right direction, and buy on a pullback to the 30 period MA (at least).

Also works well when getting out of a congested area when there's a bit of a battle or dealer stop chasing going on around a level.

And it would have given a nice short in cable after 6273 held...
Some of our trade entries, on 1 minute the 2nd lower high/higher low. See Islanders 1 min chart for his first sell arrow.

Also where 5 min candle and 1 min entry agree. See 8.40 shooting star and 8.44 1 min entry, again this is the first sell per Islanders chart above.
  • #491
  • Jan 22, 2010 6:10am Jan 22, 2010 6:10am
Quoting Vantage
I ended up doing an hour or two painting so that the guys here will finish and don't have to come back Monday. Mrs V got a bit of the move (entry as per 1 of Islanders sell areas in above post) but exited pre news.

Topic for discussion? Yesterday and today the immediate pre-news trade gave the direction of the news move. Obviously this doesn't work all the time but do you guys have any idea how often?
Interesting question. Unlike in the equities markets, insider trading is not unlawful, and some people get hold of the data or have research staff who are good at estimating them. Remember Soros had a 'fly on the wall' inside when betting against BoE. I once talked to a trader who had done some statistical work around this for the NFP. The idea was that if the last 15m candle before 8.30am EST was long but not too long then one could enter in the direction of the candle with a certain stop.

Any other thoughts?
  • #492
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:52am Jan 22, 2010 8:52am
Quoting medici
Interesting question. Unlike in the equities markets, insider trading is not unlawful, and some people get hold of the data or have research staff who are good at estimating them. Remember Soros had a 'fly on the wall' inside when betting against BoE. I once talked to a trader who had done some statistical work around this for the NFP. The idea was that if the last 15m candle before 8.30am EST was long but not too long then one could enter in the direction of the candle with a certain stop.

Any other thoughts?
When I news traded with a small group, the opinion was that the Euro news was generally well leaked and thus the release not worth trading, whereas the British news was better controlled and thus more liable to be out of line with expectations and give immediatly tradeable moves.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #493
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:57am Jan 22, 2010 8:57am
Quoting medici
Any other thoughts?
I suppose the only way is if in a trade say 30 mins before and up to either take partial profits and let balance run or let whole position run and keep track of results over a period.
  • #494
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:59am Jan 22, 2010 8:59am
What a great short trade from mid morning.....plenty of signals and once the fall started the 1 min 30 ema would have guided you to loads of pips.....pity I was out!

Its now looking as if the 6085 level will hold for a retrace and after the ~200 pip fall I would expect a minimum of a 50 pip bounce with a 50% retrace possible.....TWT

However, I've finished for the week, back for Mondays early action - I wish everyone a good weekend....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #495
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:20am Jan 22, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Islander

I wish everyone a good weekend....
Same to you and everyone else on the thread. See you Monday.
  • #496
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:24am Jan 22, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Vantage
I suppose the only way is if in a trade say 30 mins before and up to either take partial profits and let balance run or let whole position run and keep track of results over a period.
There's also the game of fading the initial moves. Dealers use the thin liquidity around news time to take out orders. NFP is notorious for that, Last time, for example, in the Euro it was up to 4410-15 then down to 4300, and then up again. Works similarly around other big news releases.
  • #497
  • Jan 22, 2010 9:52am Jan 22, 2010 9:52am
Quoting medici
There's also the game of fading the initial moves. Dealers use the thin liquidity around news time to take out orders. NFP is notorious for that, Last time, for example, in the Euro it was up to 4410-15 then down to 4300, and then up again. Works similarly around other big news releases.
Sure, just want to stress that this discussion would be for UK news events only. Probably not for interest rate news but the run of the mill items like this morning.

Cheers guys see you Monday.
  • #498
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:00am Jan 22, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Vantage
Sure, just want to stress that this discussion would be for UK news events only. Probably not for interest rate news but the run of the mill items like this morning.

Cheers guys see you Monday.
Don't you think that this morning's news, when cable went down to 6191 and then up, was an example of what I suggested and could have been faded?
  • #499
  • Jan 22, 2010 10:16am Jan 22, 2010 10:16am
Two longs I took just before the fix.
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  • #500
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:07am Jan 22, 2010 11:07am
Here are the Fibonacci levels I keep on my daily chart.

The blue is the range since summer. High end of June, low 8 July. Capped the latest medium term up move at the 61.8% level 6453. Capped today's up move at the 38.2% level at 6273.

The brown is the January 85 low to the November 07 high. I've taken some good trades off those levels.

Any levels that I am missing?
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