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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #12,981
  • Edited 3:03pm Jan 21, 2010 2:44pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting Babi

Many times an important news is due to release at a turning point of the market. It is not a coincident. when you hear the news, the market has already moved in some direction, many times an important S/R point is violated greatly. But could you count on it? No way. I can correctly predict around 70% to 80 % of the moves but the rest will steal a great portion of the profits I have already earned. If I can avoid those false moves, you can imagine.
this is what fti has been saying a lot over the last few months.. news is just a cover.

About practical things.. today you could see that the move started on usd/yen.. somebody was selling usd heavily and when that happens it is unwise to be long usd on other pairs like eur/usd. This is why we watch the 3 kingdoms.

This thread is not practical and in my humble opinion- never will be. There are several reasons for it. All discussed previosly.

Intermarket relationships and news analysis can be beneficial if you are a position trader and place only a few trades a year. On the time scale that we operate it does not play any role. Except for major disasters, disorders and panic (this you can see on the quotes board that you were interested in, lol).
  • #12,982
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:08pm Jan 21, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting piccolo
this is what fti has been saying a lot over the last few months.. news is just a cover.

About practical things.. today you could see that the move started on usd/yen.. somebody was selling usd heavily and when that happens it is unwise to be long usd on other pairs like eur/usd. This is why we watch the 3 kingdoms.
yes 3 kindoms is the most usefull correlation (the only one i watch) and to me also this is uncertain. i use it in analisys and sometimes trade it.... what i often think about is, is this order-flow or fundamental.

FTi said: that if out of sync there is something going on on the fundamental front (or something like that). for a long time i was thinking this depends on the timeframe... i look at the 3 on 5 min.tf, and often fast directional price action in one kingdom does not happen in the others. wich makes me think it is orders.

what do you think is a good TF to watch the kingdoms to follow the trend?? i have a feeling 5 min is too small.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #12,983
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:43pm Jan 21, 2010 3:43pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
[quote=j-pax;
what do you think is a good TF to watch the kingdoms to follow the trend?? i have a feeling 5 min is too small.[/quote]

Hi j-pax ,

I have started again from the begging of this thread and I remembered fti mentioning something about that .... I 've found it in post #51 . I know there are quite a few posts later about 3 kingdoms but I don't remember are later posts "in agreement" with this one.

........ " I normally keep the daily OHLC bar charts visable for
the EUR, cable, yen.(naked, term borrowed from leighsww)
chf is a bit of a wild lady, so i don't look at her much.
then I have the the short charts of the market I am actively trading.
normally sighting the 5min candles ,15min candles
and I keep hourly candles at the back of the screen just in case
the short charts becomes choppy then I refer to the hourly for direction."

Hope this helps :-)
  • #12,984
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:31pm Jan 21, 2010 4:31pm
Amazing!
Just got from work and checked U/Y....somebody wants yen in desperation.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #12,985
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:44pm Jan 21, 2010 4:44pm
music for twighlightzone although it's pretty busy....
"if you believe in things you don't understnd ... you will suffer" says stevie W.
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a reminder to myself: "study hard and trade well"
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #12,986
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:49pm Jan 21, 2010 4:49pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
I am just curious what you all think about this little passage from post #33 from fti :

...... "after entry watch the mkts.
Is it doing what you thought it should be doing?
are you comfortable with the position, if yes then add to the position.
if not get out, find a different level. and do it again. and again until you are satisfied with your position."

It seems to me like we should get out of our positions more often oppose to trying to rescue it ??? (trying to have more wins - better % of winning trades - and then end up with much larger loss compared to just "scout" loss)
Also .... reading through both threads and from my own experience .... seems like it's much "harder" for some of us to add to the position.

All comments welcome :-)
  • #12,987
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:39pm Jan 21, 2010 5:39pm
Hi guys,

obama declares war on bank & wall street. as the link below.
Will they affect us in term of leverage?

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100121/2/2aueq.html

Cheers,
  • #12,988
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:02pm Jan 21, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi guys,

obama declares war on bank & wall street. as the link below.
Will they affect us in term of leverage?

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100121/2/2aueq.html

Cheers,
No.
Just positions
  • #12,989
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:14pm Jan 21, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting acim
I am just curious what you all think about this little passage from post #33 from fti :

...... "after entry watch the mkts.
Is it doing what you thought it should be doing?
are you comfortable with the position, if yes then add to the position.
if not get out, find a different level. and do it again. and again until you are satisfied with your position."

It seems to me like we should get out of our positions more often oppose to trying to rescue it ??? (trying to have more wins - better % of winning trades - and then end up...
Reading through the thread myself, it's pretty clear to me that fti is a master at volatility skews. Probably the best I have seen in a public forum as well as being really good at many other dealer vetted trading techniques and vetted models.

For me, the position add or subtract is simple and needs only to be manageable.

Regards,
  • #12,990
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:33pm Jan 21, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting acim
I am just curious what you all think about this little passage from post #33 from fti :

Also .... reading through both threads and from my own experience .... seems like it's much "harder" for some of us to add to the position.

All comments welcome :-)
yup ,
when things go wrong get out , or if u r not sure if things are very wrong , at least reduce ...
the key is to reduce to a level u think is rescuable with respect to the current flow ...
simply reduce half and ask urself "can I rescue this ?" , if theres any hesitation in saying yes , reduce again , keep doing so , sync ur size with market flow ...

adding to positions is harder because it is the right thing to do , it is the right mindset to have , when u no longer have the difficulty to adding , and u add when u know market is in ur favour , u r into profitable zone ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,991
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:46pm Jan 21, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting maheswara
yup ,
when things go wrong get out , or if u r not sure if things are very wrong , at least reduce ...
the key is to reduce to a level u think is rescuable with respect to the current flow ...
simply reduce half and ask urself "can I rescue this ?" , if theres any hesitation in saying yes , reduce again , keep doing so , sync ur size with market flow ...

adding to positions is harder because it is the right thing to do , it is the right mindset to have , when u no longer have the difficulty to adding , and u add when u know market is in ur...
that was nice...good night...
done for the evening.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #12,992
  • Edited 10:59pm Jan 21, 2010 10:47pm | Edited 10:59pm
any thoughts on e/u ?
my eyes are watching a/u 9020 uj 8971 as I try to keep a pulse on the e/u.

reviewing the day areas of extra interest
e/u 4230
4176
3983
  • #12,993
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:06pm Jan 21, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting jacson101
No.
Just positions
Thanks Jacson

cheers
  • #12,994
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:12pm Jan 21, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting maheswara
yup ,
when things go wrong get out , or if u r not sure if things are very wrong , at least reduce ...
the key is to reduce to a level u think is rescuable with respect to the current flow ...
simply reduce half and ask urself "can I rescue this ?" , if theres any hesitation in saying yes , reduce again , keep doing so , sync ur size with market flow ...

adding to positions is harder because it is the right thing to do , it is the right mindset to have , when u no longer have the difficulty to adding , and u add when u know market is in ur...
Thanks Maheswara,

The above mentions are very very clear for me now.
How are you? hope you are doing well.
I'm very busy with study& practice.

Best regards,
  • #12,995
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:31pm Jan 21, 2010 11:31pm
@pete,
all well here , thanks
hope u r well too
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,996
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:50am Jan 22, 2010 12:50am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi guys,

obama declares war on bank & wall street. as the link below.
Will they affect us in term of leverage?

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100121/2/2aueq.html

Cheers,
For US brokers maybe, CFTC already proposed another 10:1 leverage cap. Brokers are opposing it, fearing that everybody will switch to brokers outside the US.
  • #12,997
  • Jan 22, 2010 1:18am Jan 22, 2010 1:18am
its tearing again ,
volatile time approaching ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,998
  • Edited 1:53am Jan 22, 2010 1:35am | Edited 1:53am
eyes open g/u 6259
au 9090
  • #12,999
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:02am Jan 22, 2010 2:02am
Quoting piccolo
For US brokers maybe, CFTC already proposed another 10:1 leverage cap. Brokers are opposing it, fearing that everybody will switch to brokers outside the US.
Thanks Piccolo,

For sure most retail traders will switch to brokers outside US.

Cheers,
  • #13,000
  • Edited 4:34am Jan 22, 2010 2:19am | Edited 4:34am
Watch out for concerted intervention. The usd is hit the fan , big time. Talk about leadership. A case of teaching grandmothers how to suck eggs. At least Buba & the Iron Lady still have brains on top.

Good trading ALL

regards

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