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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #9,361
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:22pm Jan 20, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting hcristea
Impatient, no. Adventurous, maybe... sometimes... not very often. Not now anyway.

I was watching this pair and last night I saw the chart and there was the PA at support and it felt right. I've set the order and closed the laptop.

I wasn't sure whether to answer to Razorjack's question (I have witnesses ) or not because it could be interpreted as bragging and childish especially after the price broke up. I did it because I was talking about the pair earlier on the thread.

Since i'm a student on the path, i'm going to keep you posted about the...
I was watching this pair and last night I saw the chart and there was the PA at support and it felt right. I've set the order and closed the laptop.

You're good!

Did you make a PLAN?

I wasn't sure whether to answer to Razorjack's question (I have witnesses ) or not because it could be interpreted as bragging and childish especially after the price broke up. I did it because I was talking about the pair earlier on the thread.

Good - yes you did, so no problem.


I could post my next steps here on the thread. Is this ok with you?

Yes, please do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,362
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:44pm Jan 20, 2010 2:44pm
USD/JPY BUOB @ S/R

I have had a good day to so far EUR/GBP and EUR/USD did well. However I also placed a trade on break of yesterdays buob on USD/JPY. Now I did this knowingly going against the weekly and monthly trend because USD was very strong today.



I have just closed it at break even as there was little movement on USD/JPY. This got me thinking, if we look at gains of USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and lack of movement on U/J, this may suggest U/J is weak and may be ready for further move down. Anyway just a thought going through my head, Ill be looking for bearish P/A on this pair now.
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  • #9,363
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:53pm Jan 20, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting strat
OK. So, do what you have to do and then ask any questions on here AFTER the event whether it works or it doesn't.

ALL:

Remember, this is a teaching how to trade thread NOT a trading journal thread.
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

With regard to stating whether one is long or short, such indication would normally cause me to to recheck my trades to see how others see opportunities, but as long as my entry is consistent with the PASR and my trade plan I would do nothing to be influenced by other trader's inclination to trade.

I have been in a number of trades since the beginning of the year (5/01/10)and the market was going against me until yesterday, meanwhile there were number of posts indicating moves that would have caused me to exit trades and take trades in the opposite direction. However it was a worthwhile - 2 week - wait. Saying that this is to emphasise that we need to trade what we see on our own charts plus be patient and no matter what stick to one's plan.

I agree with the premise to not show the entry signals and the only solid way to learn is to learn from charts the PA at SR.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,364
  • Jan 20, 2010 3:06pm Jan 20, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting strat


Did you make a PLAN?

The plan is to watch the PA as the price approaches the resistances above it. Then protect my profit by moving the SL under the price. I don't want a tight SL if there are no reasons for it. I prefer a wide SL to let the trade evolve. Reasons to tighten the SL are reverse PA at resistance. I don't use targets for taking profit.

I see the level 1.0704 as the first major resistance. There is a minor resistances at the current price level and above is the psycho you've mentioned. I'll watch the PA at these levels. Hostile PA might make me tighten the SL.

Next step is to move the SL to BE. For this, I would like to see tomorrow's candle. Right now is too early to move to BE.

I'm trying to apply Dr. Joe's advice and go with the trend and keep adding to the trade until it stops. In my trading experience I got only a few of those trades that started small and ended as monsters.

I know that now there is no up trend but i'm LONG so... I have to presume that the price will continue to go up. This could be a very short trade also No problem for me.
  • #9,365
  • Edited 3:28pm Jan 20, 2010 3:08pm | Edited 3:28pm
Quoting el_duende
USD/JPY BUOB @ S/R

I have had a good day to so far EUR/GBP and EUR/USD did well....
Let me see if I can give you a different perspective on this.

I think you're drawing premature conclusions and closing your trades without really understanding what's happening.

You are comparing USDJPY, a pair with characteristics very different from USDCAD, EURUSD and AUDUSD. USDCAD, EURUSD and AUDUSD will move in conjunction with each other because they are in sync in times of risk appetite and risk aversion. With the current market conditions when you have risk appetite the USD will weaken while CAD, EUR and AUD will strengthen. And when there is risk aversion the opposite happens.

USDJPY is very different, it doesn't move in sync with the others because it's not AS affected (only slightly affected) by risk aversion or risk appetite, because they are both safe haven currencies.

So what you are doing is basically comparing apples with oranges.

Instead what you can try to do next time is compare AUDUSD with AUDJPY or CADUSD with CADJPY or EURUSD with EURJPY, etc, if they both move down, it's risk aversion, if they both move up or one up and the other down, it's risk appetite.

So today it wasn't weakness in the USDJPY, but rather short term risk aversion as both the USD and JPY gained on other currencies today. And IMO it doesn't signal a possible downtrend, so I personally would not have closed USDJPY long positions.

Hope this made sense.
-Razorjack
  • #9,366
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:33pm Jan 20, 2010 4:33pm
PRICE has been pushed up all the way to the Major Root TL and is beginning to bounce off it. This also lines up very nicely with the Dec 17 high.

Have buyers got the momentum to push on up to 1.0600?

Is this the beginning of the end?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,367
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:40pm Jan 20, 2010 4:40pm
If you have missed today's moves (I have on some) don't worry, it's no big deal.

Just move on and wait for the next opportunity - I can guarantee that there is a move being set up for us right now as I write this.

Do not go back and do a post mortem trying to analyse why you missed it - you will only play into the hands of you know who. These things happen.

MOVE ON!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,368
  • Jan 20, 2010 5:06pm Jan 20, 2010 5:06pm
Adding the BOSS channel (blue) to the worker
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,369
  • Jan 20, 2010 5:30pm Jan 20, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting el_duende
USD/JPY BUOB @ S/R

I have had a good day to so far EUR/GBP and EUR/USD did well. However I also placed a trade on break of yesterdays buob on USD/JPY. Now I did this knowingly going against the weekly and monthly trend because USD was very strong today.



I have just closed it at break even as there was little movement on USD/JPY. This got me thinking, if we look at gains of USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and lack of movement on U/J, this may suggest U/J is weak and may be ready for further move down. Anyway just a thought going through...

Actually, your point is well taken. One never ones to ride the nag in the stable. Closing a trade due to lack of action can be an excellent move. Re-entry can always occur.

I do agree with Razorjack in keeping my own positions open; however, in contrast, my own assessment sees the lack of JPY buying against USD as a supportive sign for USDJPY, as against the stock selloff, commodity selloff, and risk averse temperament in the market today and in the EU over the last week. That is a switch from the prior pattern, and supports the conjunctive look of the monthly, weekly, and daily PA in that pair. GBPJPY continues to diverge as well, as noted, while the failure of EURJPY to re-achieve 131 predated the stock sell off, as noted here on Friday.
  • #9,370
  • Edited 6:43pm Jan 20, 2010 6:04pm | Edited 6:43pm
If one believes in E/J, the monthly pattern still is supportive and, at these levels, presents a low R/R on any supportive daily PA. It's cheap, in other words, relative to the monthly look. The close is a bit ominous, so not for the stress free crowd just yet, but value players who handle stops well may be interested.
  • #9,371
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:48pm Jan 20, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting Alexandra
If one believes in E/J, the monthly pattern still is supportive and, at these levels, presents a low R/R on any supportive daily PA. It's cheap, in other words, relative to the monthly look. The close is a bit ominous, so not for the stress free crowd just yet, but value players who handle stops well may be interested.
I'm not fast enough on the post button. I'm interested this time around. One possible concern though is the clear downward channel...this could be the time it doesn't make a return trip. I assume that's your reference to the close.

-m
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  • #9,372
  • Jan 20, 2010 8:43pm Jan 20, 2010 8:43pm
http://www.meetpips.com

Anyone try this? newbies like me , maybe need this.

---------
I try to learn this trading System , but still cannot got the right way.
Try to understand English Try to understand Forex
  • #9,373
  • Jan 20, 2010 8:58pm Jan 20, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting Razorjack

USDJPY is very different, it doesn't move in sync with the others because it's not AS affected (only slightly affected) by risk aversion or risk appetite, because they are both safe haven currencies.
They are both safe haven currencies, but especially since the financial crisis started, whenever risk aversion increased dramatically, USDJPY depreciated heavily on those days. So, USDJPY is affected depending on the degree of risk aversion, IMO.
  • #9,374
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:18pm Jan 20, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting mstandifer
I'm not fast enough on the post button. I'm interested this time around. One possible concern though is the clear downward channel...this could be the time it doesn't make a return trip. I assume that's your reference to the close.

-m
That channel is not a valid one (too much violation), and this currency is moving sideways since June' 08. All you can do is to trade the range if wide enough but not the subject of this thread (see my previous posts re. EJ range trade).

I am attaching a perfect channel for you. Still valid after 20yrs.
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  • #9,375
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:20pm Jan 20, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting mstandifer
I'm not fast enough on the post button. I'm interested this time around. One possible concern though is the clear downward channel...this could be the time it doesn't make a return trip. I assume that's your reference to the close.

-m

Closing above 129 appears to be a key to the bull case. We're trading on it now. I really don't want to deal with all the stops at 127, LOL, but I have to prepare for that possibility. Given the riches at stake, one can certainly afford to wait on new positions. For me, the daily chart is still consolidative/sideways.

Meanwhile USDJPY is carrying the load. A run at 92.50 seems likely; for me, that would be a convincing achievement.
  • #9,376
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:40pm Jan 20, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting Blackeagle
They are both safe haven currencies, but especially since the financial crisis started, whenever risk aversion increased dramatically, USDJPY depreciated heavily on those days. So, USDJPY is affected depending on the degree of risk aversion, IMO.
Agreed, and nice work on Chunnel last week. That set the stage nicely on the heels of the Cable run.
  • #9,377
  • Jan 21, 2010 12:28am Jan 21, 2010 12:28am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9286
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  • #9,378
  • Edited 2:20am Jan 21, 2010 1:11am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting Blackeagle
They are both safe haven currencies, but especially since the financial crisis started, whenever risk aversion increased dramatically, USDJPY depreciated heavily on those days. So, USDJPY is affected depending on the degree of risk aversion, IMO.
Yes, you are absolutely right and I agree 100%, Blackeagle.

You can see clear evidence of this when you have as you say DRAMATIC INCREASE in risk aversion, something that impacts long term trends. An example is the Dubai Debt crisis from Nov 25-27 '09, USDJPY took a dramatic downturn to 85 and the JP gov't was in an uproar.

However what I was referring to in the context of the post, was SHORT TERM or minor risk aversion, it wasn't dramatic or major yesterday. Which doesn't impact USDJPY as much as it does currency pairs like AUDSD, AUDJPY, etc. It's here in my original post:

Quoting Razorjack
So today it wasn't weakness in the USDJPY, but rather short term risk aversion as both the USD and JPY gained on other currencies today. And IMO it doesn't signal a possible downtrend, so I personally would not have closed USDJPY long positions.
But I can see how what I wrote could be misinterpreted. Unfortunately, I have a tendency to write posts as if I'm writing to myself and take a lot of details for granted.

Thank you for clearing that up.
-Razorjack
  • #9,379
  • Edited 2:19am Jan 21, 2010 1:35am | Edited 2:19am
Hello everyone,

Two major developments happening. For all of you who don't care to read the "gobbedly gook", just jump down to the end of the post for my conclusion.

1. It looks like Obama is looking to crackdown on Wall st in regards to "excessive risk taking" as the US gov't perceives it. Even though I believe it was the fiscal and monetary policies of the US that were a major factor in causing the environment that triggered the global financial crisis in the first place.

Gov't creates an environment to encourage risk taking -> it fails dramatically -> gov't blaims wall st and decides it needs to punish the risk takers they were encouraging to take risks in the first place. Unbelievable ..... political spinning at it's best.

Anyways, I don't think this is the thread to discuss this so let's move on.

Obama will deliver a speech on this later today.

Depending on Obama's plans, this could cause further SHORT TERM or MINOR risk aversion and have an impact of moving money from equities to safer investments like bonds adding further strength to the USD. Even if this event doesn't increase USD strength, there is very little chance that it will cause USD weakness, IMO.

2. China is looking to tighten it's monetary policy after a huge credit driven boom.

China is a huge consumer in commodities: #2 oil and energy after the US and #1 in metals like copper, IIRC. And monetary policy tightening could decrease the demand for these commodities.

And all this could have an impact on the commodity currencies like AUD, NZD, and CAD as we saw yesterday.

Conlusion:

So, what does this mean for us traders?

1. This can cause the USD to appreciate, depending on what Obama's plans are. I'm thinking to continue staying long USD. BE CAREFUL SHORTING USD.

2. China tightening it's monetary could weaken the commodity currencies like AUD, NZD, CAD, etc. I'm looking for further depreciation in these currencies.
-Razorjack
  • #9,380
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:21am Jan 21, 2010 2:21am
Does anyone know about Baba G's whereabouts? He has not been seen for a while here?

Femi
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