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  • #921
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:22pm Jan 18, 2010 7:22pm
closed out my gbp/usd trade for a substantial loss - wasn't moving the other way, plus I didn't want to add another level with CPI news etc coming out tomorrow.

i know this probably isn't the best course of action, but time to move on and look for other opportunities!
  • #922
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:04pm Jan 18, 2010 8:04pm
Slow day today, not much happened. Lots of trades out there so pick and choose what you would like to do. I didnt do any straddle trades but if I had a choice it would have been the aud/usd. Good luck trading.
TAKE PROFITS

STRADDLE TRADE

CLOSED FOR LOSS
OPEN TRADES
chf/jpy, -13
eur/aud -19
eur/cad, -09
eur/gbp, -44
eur/jpy, -11
gbp/chf -105
nzd/chf -16
usd/jpy -35

TOTALS
total for day +0
 for the week +0
for the month +661
Carry over -252

primary trades
BUYS
SELLS gbp/usd,
gbp/nzd ?? even though it qualifies it is not a strong signal and I have many other trades going so i wont be taking it.

Secondary trades
BUYS eur/chf
SELLS aud/chf, nzd/usd

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that [/quote]
  • #923
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:12pm Jan 18, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting scottik187
closed out my gbp/usd trade for a substantial loss - wasn't moving the other way, plus I didn't want to add another level with CPI news etc coming out tomorrow.

i know this probably isn't the best course of action, but time to move on and look for other opportunities!
I closed that one out last Friday night. I have learned that if I had a good day and some other currency has stayed in the hole, I will go ahead and take the minimum loss or set my SL to prevent a deep backup. I dont always follow my own advice though. Over time when you get 2 or 3 levels deep you will learn to take that small loss. There are plenty of opportunities in the future plus it allows you to get a better entrance later. With the spike up today I hope to later get a good entrance on the GBP/USD. Bury the trade and go on.
  • #924
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:23pm Jan 18, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting nanningbob
I closed that one out last Friday night. I have learned that if I had a good day and some other currency has stayed in the hole, I will go ahead and take the minimum loss or set my SL to prevent a deep backup. I dont always follow my own advice though. Over time when you get 2 or 3 levels deep you will learn to take that small loss. There are plenty of opportunities in the future plus it allows you to get a better entrance later. With the spike up today I hope to later get a good entrance on the GBP/USD. Bury the trade and go on.
Yeah I was thinking about closing the trade on friday when you did...but I didn't. Ah well.

i don't really like the look of any gbp sells right now, seems to be quite a lot of bullish sentiment there. I got out of my gpb/chf trade for a small profit as I didnt want to be exposed to the gbp so much.

As there sin't to much else happening, I'll be playing it safe until another some more opportunities come up...
  • #925
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:34pm Jan 18, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting Toothman
https://server.iad.liveperson.net/hc...o/chatinfo.gifYou are now chatting with 'Robert'
Robert: Welcome to the FX Solutions Australia on line chat service....
What bothers me about all of this, if the USA wants to screw everything up that is one thing but I dont understand why companies dont want to take US citizens overseas. Are we going to need dual/citizenship in other coutries to trade??
  • #926
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:31am Jan 19, 2010 3:31am
Quoting scottik187
closed out my gbp/usd trade for a substantial loss - wasn't moving the other way, plus I didn't want to add another level with CPI news etc coming out tomorrow.

i know this probably isn't the best course of action, but time to move on and look for other opportunities!
Next time have a plan for your exit. I just am going to use your exit as an example. If you use the S/R indicator on a daily chart you will see that priced stopped right at a major S/R line on the daily. The plan should have been, if price breaks this S/R line on the daily then exit. If it bounces off look for my best exit for the trade. I would have put a sell here to minimize my lose if it bounced and exit some point above if price kept going. You will learn in trading to minimize losses playing off of these major S/R lines. Notice the Daily chart below. You can see the blue line I drew showing two major S/R spots in the past. I put white arrow pointing to them. If price breaks that point your plan would be to exit. If price bounces your plan is to take the sell and reduce my loss. Once you get the hang of using S/R lines you can increase your profits and decrease your losses more. I hope this is a help to you. Next time plan where you want to take your loss, dont do it at the R line, do it after it is clearly broken. Look for the bounce and see if you get it, many times you will get it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #927
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:23pm Jan 19, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting nanningbob
Next time have a plan for your exit. I just am going to use your exit as an example. If you use the S/R indicator on a daily chart you will see that priced stopped right at a major S/R line on the...
Thanks for the advice - looks great. I'm working on using the s/r lines some more, they are great places to place trades/get out etc, esp when combined with the indicators. Aside from that bad trade, I'm going pretty well using the system. Just need more experience managing trades...this will come with time!
  • #928
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:25pm Jan 19, 2010 4:25pm
dear Bob,

brilliant strategy, thank you very much, I have read all postings sofar and I am demo trading right now.

I wanted to study the losing trades from december, but with the recovery 4-2-4 theory (of course in hindsight) I could not make a loss of it.....
Perhaps because of the MA arrows, they do repaint with historical data , maybe some long positions were taken earlier then I could see.

Cheers and thanks again!
  • #929
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:53pm Jan 19, 2010 4:53pm
Signals:

Buy: eur/gpb
Sell: gbp/chf

I'm still a bit worried about these gbp pairs, however it has ran quite hard and may be due for a pullback imo.
  • #930
  • Edited 6:24pm Jan 19, 2010 6:09pm | Edited 6:24pm
Closed a couple of small profits to reduce my overall risk. Price didnt move much except on the gbp pairs. I like my positioning on all my trades except the eur/gbp.
TAKE PROFITS
eur/chf +25
nzd/usd +10
usd/jpy +22
STRADDLE TRADE
usd/jpy see pic below
CLOSED FOR LOSS
OPEN TRADES
aud/chf, -44
chf/jpy, -35
eur/aud -90
eur/cad, -42
eur/gbp, -103 L2 0
eur/jpy, -42
gbp/chf -190 2L -10
gbp/usd, -39
nzd/chf -16
TOTALS
total for day +57
 for the week +57
for the month +718
Carry over -611

primary trades
BUYS eur/usd
SELLS usd/chf


Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that [/quote][/quote]
  • #931
  • Jan 19, 2010 6:15pm Jan 19, 2010 6:15pm
USD/JPY. Do I ride the trade or TP. That is always the question when you come to a S/R line. Blue and White are at the top but good news last night for the USA so it could continue. What do you do? I have been straddle trading these trades. I take my maximum profit at the R line and then put a pending order buy on the other side. I also put a pending order buy at its previous S line in case we have a double bottom. So here is a pic of my trade and set up. I get tired of losing these small 20-50 pip profits because I think price will continue but they dont. So now I take them and use the pending order to follow the trade in case price does continue. I used orange arrows to show previous S/R lines. Strong enough to close the trade for TP but knowing price may continue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #932
  • Jan 19, 2010 6:45pm Jan 19, 2010 6:45pm
There are several things about FOREX, theories I have developed about why price moves back and forth.
1. FOREX is NOT about traders. It was set up so businesses could trade world wide and banks are needed to exchange currencies. Most of the action comes from business and government transactions. As trade flows in one direction, sooner or later it has to also flow back.
2. When banks do transactions I believe the do all the buys first then the sells or visa versa. So price will move one way and then reverse. This is the cause of Monday gaps as banks process their weekend deposits and exchanges.
3. No matter what the fundamentals are if there has been a run on a currency and the banks have been selling say lots of CHF because businesses are exchanging GBP, sooner or later they need more CHF to sell their customers. So they have to buy some CHF to restock their supplies. Remember we trade in hundredths or thousandths of a penny, they exhange to the nearest penny, they make a whole lot more than we do on an exchange. So a move of 5-800 pips may not even be one penny at a bank counter but they need more CHF to make transactions with their customers so price retraces at some point.

These are some of my theories concerning FOREX and why I play the retraces. I know they are coming. S/R points are places where banks need to restock so price pauses, retraces and then continues if demand is still there. These retraces cause me to make profit or close out a trade for a minimum or zero loss. I know they have to come, banks need to balance their currency reserves. I dont know if I am right or wrong on this issue but it made sense to me on why price moves like it does. Banks needs in relation to business and government transactions is what moves the market on a daily basis.
  • #933
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:45pm Jan 19, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting nanningbob
USD/JPY. Do I ride the trade or TP. That is always the question when you come to a S/R line. Blue and White are at the top but good news last night for the USA so it could continue. What do you do? I have been straddle trading these trades. I take my maximum profit at the R line and then put a pending order buy on the other side. I also put a pending order buy at its previous S line in case we have a double bottom. So here is a pic of my trade and set up. I get tired of losing these small 20-50 pip profits because I think price will continue but...
Dear Bob

Once again thanks for your great thread. For xxxjpy pairs it is useful to see stevehopwood`s scooby-doo BOJ JPY trading robot. there is a JPY specialist professional trader who is a regular contributor who gives very good insight into BOJ (Bank of Japan) policy.

Regards
  • #934
  • Edited 4:52pm Jan 20, 2010 4:37pm | Edited 4:52pm
Open Positions:

Sell

gbp/chf: - 126

Positions to open:

Buys: eur/jpy, eur/gpb, eur/usd, aud/usd (secondary trade).

Sell: aud/nzd, usd/chf, usd/cad.

Lets hope we see some pips coming our way today!

Still wary of eur weakness and general gpb strength.
  • #935
  • Jan 20, 2010 5:31pm Jan 20, 2010 5:31pm
nice day/bad day liked my profits, however the euro and chf continues to get clobbered. eur/gbp concerns me but the others are being normal in their movements. Looking for some price retracements today to give me a big day or ????? Thurs is usually a good retracement day.
TAKE PROFITS
eur/cad 2L + 75
gbp/usd, +101
nzd/chf + 45
STRADDLE TRADE
Too many open trades will not take one today.
CLOSED FOR LOSS
OPEN TRADES
aud/chf, -26
chf/jpy, -81
eur/aud -27
eur/cad, -26
eur/usd did not enter yet
eur/gbp, -179 L2 -73
eur/jpy, -194 L2 -8
gbp/chf -305 2L -128 3L 0 Price is at R line on the daily so took a 3rd position
usd/chf -111
usd/jpy +5


TOTALS
total for day +221
 for the week +278
for the month +939
Carry over -1153

primary trades
BUYS nzd/jpy,
SELLS aud/nzd, gbp/nzd


Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that [/quote][/quote][/quote]
  • #936
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:35pm Jan 20, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting astral77
Dear Bob

Once again thanks for your great thread. For xxxjpy pairs it is useful to see stevehopwood`s scooby-doo BOJ JPY trading robot. there is a JPY specialist professional trader who is a regular contributor who gives very good insight into BOJ (Bank of Japan) policy.

Regards

Thank you, I hope we have been helpful.

Bob
  • #937
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:36pm Jan 21, 2010 4:36pm
I took the gbp/nzd but now wish I hadnt. I will reenter around the 300 mark on that one because it is so volatile. Missed some bigger profits by closing out early but had too many trades going. Eur/jpy needs to turn or retrace but the other trades I feel good about. The NZD is showing primary trades but it is getting so badly crushed right now I am not taking anymore trades on it today. The others are iffy to me so I am just staying put with my trades. Caught a nice retrace on the gbp/chf hopefully it will fall some more. I have banked enough profit this month that if I need to use some of it to get out of some bad trades I can do that. Hopefully wont need to do that.
TAKE PROFITS
aud/chf, +35 boy did I close this too early
eur/aud +10 hit my TS and then went up and up sheesh
eur/cad, +10 hit my TS and then went up some more
gbp/chf +87
usd/jpy +22
STRADDLE TRADE

CLOSED FOR LOSS
OPEN TRADES

aud/nzd -51
chf/jpy, -120 2L 0
eur/usd -38
eur/gbp, -146 L2 -40
eur/jpy, -323 L2 -165 L3 0
gbp/chf -187 2L -10
nzd/jpy, -164 2L 0
gbp/nzd -271 maybe should have stayed away from this one ???
usd/chf -99

TOTALS
total for day +164
 for the week +442
for the month +1103
Carry over -1614

primary trades
BUYS
SELLS


Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that
  • #938
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:45pm Jan 21, 2010 4:45pm
Open Positions:

aud/nzd: - 75
usd/cad: - 65

Closed positions:

usd/chf: +20
gpb/chf: +4 should have added another level yesterday at the R line.


I stayed away from the nzd pairs (aside from the aud/nzd) because of the volatility.
  • #939
  • Jan 22, 2010 7:57pm Jan 22, 2010 7:57pm
I took a gbp/nzd trade at the R line and it made my day. Other than that prices were fairly stagnate. Did get enough movement to break even out of the gbp/chf trade.
Monday trades, lots of them but dont get too many NZD or JPY trades. You dont want to be overloaded in any group just in case they keep running. So pick and choose your poison. I am going to straddle trade the gbp/nzd. I think I am crazy but all the NZD are overbought/oversold so time for a change of direction.
TAKE PROFITS
eur/usd +29
eur/gbp, +37
gbp/chf +95 -39 -51
gbp/nzd +140 took a 2nd level at R line worked out
STRADDLE TRADE
I may be nuts but I am going to straddle trade the gbp/nzd
CLOSED FOR LOSS
OPEN TRADES
aud/nzd -65
chf/jpy, -169 2L -45
eur/gbp, -54
eur/jpy, -356 L2 -204 L3 0-37
nzd/jpy, -203
gbp/nzd -316
usd/chf -99

TOTALS
total for day +211
 for the week +653
for the month +1304
Carry over -1548

primary trades
BUYS usd/jpy nzd/usd nzd/chf nzd/jpy gbp/jpy aud/jpy
SELLS usd/cad eur/nzd

maybes eur/cad eur/aud
Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp nzd.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #940
  • Jan 25, 2010 5:41pm Jan 25, 2010 5:41pm
With the nzd interest rate news tomorrow I am dropping out of all those positions. I will get out of the aud/nzd and nzd/jpy today at my best exit. I closed all the others. Thank you gbp/jpy for the nice move to clean out some of my not so good trades. USA is also having interest rate day but they arent going to change so I will keep those trades. Took some L2 & L3 profits and glad I did on the chf/jpy and eur/jpy. Cut my DD in half so happy with that. Not much in new trades today.
TAKE PROFITS
eur/aud didnt take the trade but it would have been 40-50 pips dont ask me why I took all the others and not this one
aud/jpy +30
chf/jpy, 2L +30
 eur/jpy, L3 +53
eur/nzd +10 moved my SL to +10
gbp/jpy +152
usd/jpy +12
STRADDLE TRADE
it didnt break support so closed out for a small loss on gbp/nzd see below
CLOSED FOR LOSS
 eur/gbp, -48
gbp/nzd -162 2L -3
nzd/usd - 05
nzd/chf - 10
OPEN TRADES
aud/nzd -65
chf/jpy, -101
eur/cad -32
eur/jpy, -293 L2 -133
gbp/nzd 0 (I took this trade again at the R line put a stop on the other side because I dont want to get deep into it again. But thought it was worth taking a chance. If it moves down real good I may use it to take out the eur/jpy trade if it doesnt move anywhere) Planning my exits
nzd/jpy, -145
usd/cad -10
usd/chf -71

TOTALS
total for day +59
 for the week +59
for the month +1363
Carry over -850

primary trades
BUYS
SELLS gbp/usd gbp/nzd (I took this trade again at the R line put a tight stop on the other side)

Secondary trades
BUYS
SELLS will take eur/nzd at R line today if it moves back up to it.

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy

aud/cad - aud/nzd this matches minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.

chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd

gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy

Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility.
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that
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