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  • #9,321
  • Jan 19, 2010 10:46am Jan 19, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Blackeagle
This is my interpretation on daily. After breaking Dec 4th high, we can say that the trend has reversed based on a full cycle (HL-HH), but breaking of Jan 4th low indicated a half cycle (LL only) which can be a signal to return to downtrend. To confirm downtrend we need a full cycle (an LH and then break of recent LL not in sight atm). Of course, this interpretation is correct if you look at daily tf only.

When you switch to weekly tf, although we see HH, we need HL and break of that HH to confirm trend reversal. Because we need this full cycle...
I find peak and trough analysis for determining the trend more reliable.

Yes. Agree 100%. Swing analysis is far more reliable in trend determination than TL breaks and is a major component of my trend trading.

TL analysis, breaks, re-test and breakouts are equally important when trading with an established trend.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,322
  • Jan 19, 2010 10:56am Jan 19, 2010 10:56am
Quoting LarryK
I have been staying away from this pair because although there has been a lot of discussion by people who are already long, Strat has not as far as I know agreed that this can be traded long yet.

I was just thinking then that if in fact it has changed, then there will be corrections and pullbacks in the direction of the 'old' trend which with suitable PASR should be tradeable. Assuming that the trend may have changed then trading these corrctions will just need to be done with that in mind.

And when the point is finally reached when the trend...
Strat has not as far as I know agreed that this can be traded long yet.

I am not a Forex guru or wizard and don’t remember where I said I would give signals for trend change. I can be wrong as easy as the next trader.

I will teach how to identify trend change but in accordance with my “No Signals” and “Teaching to Fish” policy, I will not give signals, approvals etc.

Each individual student has to take what is being taught on here and apply it to his or her own trading – right or wrong, and learn from any mistakes.

There is enough information on here for the astute, serious student to make their own decisions without the need for copying others’ trades or being given signals (a fish).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,323
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:00am Jan 19, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Razorjack
There's just a couple of things I would like to clarify. This will be simple repetition for those of you understand fundamentals.

The first is that we all know that we have short term, medium term and long term technical analysis, but what you may not know is that the same applies to fundamental analysis.

Please also be aware of how I'm classifying time:

Short term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several days to weeks, in other words the swings you see on the Worker

Medium Term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several weeks...
Strat, I'm not sure how these should be labeled, maybe someone can come up with a suggestion.

How about:

Worker fundamentals - Fundamentals impacting a time period of several days to weeks

BOSS fundamentals - Term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several weeks to months

BIG BOSS fundamentals - Term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several months to years
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,324
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:27am Jan 19, 2010 11:27am
Quoting LarryK
Please confirm that IF this daily candle remains more or less as it is then this is a BUOB which would be off SR and in the direction of the MAYBE new trend.

Would Alexandra add to her position here?

If my chart attaches please ignore the highlights, those are homework on history.

Larry
In contrast to the prior excess verbiage without conclusion, my answer to this is...............Yes!

See if we can close > 91.25 first.

Strat, you know I agree. Fundamentals provide context, not prediction.
  • #9,325
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:29am Jan 19, 2010 11:29am
Quoting strat
Strat, I'm not sure how these should be labeled, maybe someone can come up with a suggestion.

How about:

Worker fundamentals - Fundamentals impacting a time period of several days to weeks

BOSS fundamentals - Term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several weeks to months

BIG BOSS fundamentals - Term: Fundamentals impacting a time period of several months to years
Which could be abbreviated to:

WF
BF
BBF

FP
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #9,326
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:43am Jan 19, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Alexandra
In contrast to the prior excess verbiage without conclusion, my answer to this is...............Yes!

See if we can close > 91.25 first.

Strat, you know I agree. Fundamentals provide context, not prediction.
See if we can close > 91.25 first.

Yes, and if we are in a "trend change", I would prefer to basket all the SR together to 92.00 although it would be less risk and more stress free after 93.00

What I would really like to see is some positive momentum from the BOSS. Let's see if we get it this week.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,327
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:34pm Jan 19, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting Alexandra
In contrast to the prior excess verbiage without conclusion, my answer to this is...............Yes!

See if we can close > 91.25 first.

Strat, you know I agree. Fundamentals provide context, not prediction.
I was a bit reluctant to mention this but I already added to my position at 90.80, but this is my personal style .... different strokes .....

But the main point is that I agree that fundamental analysis does not predict, it provides more of a direction BUT it does NOT tell you when. That's where technicals like PASR comes in.

-Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #9,328
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:45pm Jan 19, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting strat
Strat has not as far as I know agreed that this can be traded long yet.

I am not a Forex guru or wizard and don’t remember where I said I would give signals for trend change. I can be wrong as easy as the next trader.

I will teach how to identify trend change but in accordance with my “No Signals” and “Teaching to Fish” policy, I will not give signals, approvals etc.

[font=Arial]Each individual student has to take what is being taught on here and apply...
Fishing is what I want to learn how to do!

Somewhere in the not too distant past Strat said 94 would be his price to start agreeing that this pair might have changed direction, so that was what I was alluding to.

I am simply wanting to improve my/our (other newbies) trading ability by asking questions and getting answers even if that is sometimes an invitation to go back to page 1.

I just love this place.

Larry

PS Anyone going to the World Cup later this year?
  • #9,329
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:55pm Jan 19, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Blackeagle
When you switch to weekly tf, although we see HH, we need HL and break of that HH to confirm trend reversal. Because we need this full cycle to confirm more reliable trend reversal, that is the main reason the uptrend on daily was a short lived one since Boss controls Worker.
I had not taken into consideration the most recent LL would have to take out the most recent HH on the weekly. I was using the monthly BUEB and the HH on the daily. Putting swing analysis to it changes things...which I had not done. Thank you for taking a look at the chart and responding.

-m
  • #9,330
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:56pm Jan 19, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting LarryK
Fishing is what I want to learn how to do!

Somewhere in the not too distant past Strat said 94 would be his price to start agreeing that this pair might have changed direction, so that was what I was alluding to.

I am simply wanting to improve my/our (other newbies) trading ability by asking questions and getting answers even if that is sometimes an invitation to go back to page 1.

I just love this place.

Larry

PS Anyone going to the World Cup later this year?
Anyone going to the World Cup later this year?

That was the plan for my son and I until a certain anniversary got in the way!

Maybe Soso will be going?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,331
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:18pm Jan 19, 2010 1:18pm
Guys to be quite frankish. Everything you say for anyone who has read any of this thread is a signal. I mean the damn trades are just so obvious, the codes BUOB BEEB etc will force newcomers to visit the previous pages at least. But other than that how do you disguise the trade of a BUOB off of support? Unless its after the fact?
  • #9,332
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:18pm Jan 19, 2010 2:18pm
For believers of the Green Line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: believers of the green line.gif Size: 30 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,333
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:34pm Jan 19, 2010 2:34pm
GBPUSD is a PASR lesson all by itself!

1 – PRICE at confluence of TL, Resistance and 50% Fibonacci

2 – Rejection of PRICE by confluence of TL, Resistance and 50% Fibonacci

3 – BEEB rejected by Worker support

4 – PRICE closes above Resistance

5 – PRICE tests the TL but closes back below Resistance

6 – All this is taking place around PSYCHO 1.6400
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd pasr lesson.gif Size: 34 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,334
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:49pm Jan 19, 2010 2:49pm
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I was wondering about the fundamentals being introduced to the thread now, personally I have no experience in following information like that, it always sound pretty daunting to read or listen to someone talk fundamentals. I admire the people who have a gift to get to the bottom of such information and get benefit from it.

There is so much information that we are already processing here and it is just a concern that I may not get the full benefit of such information, plus this needs to be done in a manner that we can understand it as the jargon can be a "goobely gook" for many.

I want this to be a meaningful exercise too.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #9,335
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:49pm Jan 19, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting Razorjack
Hi Lotuselanman,

Sorry for not being clear, what I meant was how the UK economy will cope when there is no ADDITIONAL QE over the planned 200 Billion GBP, being injected into the economy.

So it's the former not the latter.

-Razorjack

I think the net result will be Stagflation... the worst possible outcome.
  • #9,336
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:56pm Jan 19, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I was wondering about the fundamentals being introduced to the thread now, personally I have no experience in following information like that, it always sound pretty daunting to read or listen to someone talk fundamentals. I admire the people who have a gift to get to the bottom of such information and get benefit from it.

There is so much information that we are already processing here and it is just a concern that I may not get the full benefit of such information, plus...
Your point is well taken Jideck and wife, and is shared by other students.

I have asked those posting fundamentals to finish their post with a summary or bottom line so that technibrats like us can understand it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #9,337
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:01pm Jan 19, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting strat
GBPUSD is a PASR lesson all by itself!

1 – PRICE at confluence of TL, Resistance and 50% Fibonacci

2 – Rejection of PRICE by confluence of TL, Resistance and 50% Fibonacci

3 – BEEB rejected by Worker support

4 – PRICE closes above Resistance

5 – PRICE tests the TL but closes back below Resistance

6 – All this is taking place around PSYCHO 1.6400
Hi Strat

After post like this I only realise how much more I need to progress to analyse PASR like you do. It keeps me on my toes too!

Thanks Strat.
Happy trading
Jideck
  • #9,338
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:34pm Jan 19, 2010 3:34pm
Strat
the only way i can get a close approximation to that line , is to make it linear weighted?
i don't remember that type being discussed on the thread, unless its down to feeds?

Cheers
  • #9,339
  • Edited 4:03pm Jan 19, 2010 3:51pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting strat
Your point is well taken Jideck and wife, and is shared by other students.

I have asked those posting fundamentals to finish their post with a summary or bottom line so that technibrats like us can understand it.
Apologies gentlemen (and ladies),it wasn't intentional to post a lot of nonsense that no one understands. One of the main reasons I post on this forum is to help me clarify my thinking and get my thoughts out so I can see it from another light. I tend to skip over details and forget that there are others reading.

Anyways, here is a summary of my views without the gobbledy gook!

USD
Boss Fundamentals (Outlook few weeks ahead): US economic recovery has been slow, but starting to pick up steam, be careful about shorting the USD. I'm shorting AUDUSD down to at least 0.87, possibly even lower and going long USDCAD up to 1.0850 or higher. I am also long on USDJPY.

Big Boss Fundamentals (Outlook several months ahead):An expectation of interest rate hikes this year, the US economy is expected to recover faster than JP, but slower than Australia, New Zealand and Canada. So I'm looking for the 1st leg of the LONG TERM uptrend in USDJPY to develop over the next few months, as well as for AUDUSD and NZDUSD to continue upwards and for USDCAD to continue downwards, AFTER the correction mentioned above, on to the 2nd leg of the long term trends.

JPY
Boss Fundamentals (Outlook few weeks ahead): The fundamental conditions driving the USDJPY downtrend have started to change and I believe the markets are now starting to factor in future rate hikes by the Fed this year into the current prices, weakening the JPY. This means look for a change in the major trend direction from down to up in USDJPY. GBPJPY may also see a change in the trend direction, but the recovery can be slow in the UK.

Big Boss Fundamentals (Outlook several months ahead): The JP economy has some serious problems with a huge growing national deficit in particular, which will take a very long time to recover from, >10 years. I'm basically looking to short JPY across the board. I'm anticipating the biggest gains to be seen in AUDJPY, NZDJPY and CADJPY this year. I'm also anticipating upward trends in GBPJPY and EURJPY, the extent of the gains will depend on how fast and how strongly the economies in GB and EZ recover over the coming several months.

So, I hope this clears things up a bit more and cuts through all the gobbledy gook!

-Razorjack
-Razorjack
  • #9,340
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:06pm Jan 19, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting Razorjack
Apologies gentlemen (and ladies),it wasn't intentional to post a lot of nonsense that no one understands. One of the main reasons I post on this forum is to help me clarify my thinking and get my thoughts out so I can see it from another light. I tend to skip over details and forget that there are others reading.

Anyways, here is a summary of my views without the gobbledy gook!

USD
Boss Fundamentals (Outlook few weeks ahead): US economy is starting to pick up steam, be careful about shorting...
Thanks Razorjackhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif ,this certainly looks good and sounds very positive for the future. Being aware of all these changes is good as we can position ourselves with some degree of ancitipation to where the currency may go in the future.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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