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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,321
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:29pm Jan 19, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting NightMoves
Anyone watching the EURAUD fall into the bottomlesss pit?

--NM
hm, there is still a support level on the monthly chart at around 1.5, then unchartered area.
Also it is right now at the channel bottom as shown in my chart. Still a waiting game. What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud w1 19.1.2010.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #2,322
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:41pm Jan 19, 2010 1:41pm
I don't like to lose, and I was thinking the whole day today of what the hell went wrong with the usd/jpy and went through all my rules again for determining most conservative entry possible.
Actually one of the rules I kind of ignored and for some reason didn't pay attention to in a while:
I want a pattern to develop BELOW the support level and then take the bpc.
This time we had price ABOVE support level and shooting through support for a bpc.
Well, and as mentioned the pullback didn't fully retrace back to breakout levels (missed it by 10 pips) and it was second half of jpy session, and price action was crap.
It's amazing how greed and maybe boredom can and will cloud your view sometimes and make you throw away all the rules you got. A never ending learning process.
  • #2,323
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:51pm Jan 19, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting Custos
I don't like to lose, and I was thinking the whole day today of what the hell went wrong with the usd/jpy and went through all my rules again for determining most conservative entry possible.
Actually one of the rules I kind of ignored and for some reason didn't pay attention to in a while:
I want a pattern to develop BELOW the support level and then take the bpc.
This time we had price ABOVE support level and shooting through support for a bpc.
Well, and as mentioned the pullback didn't fully retrace back to breakout levels (missed it by 10 pips)...
Yes it was not an A+ setup and why we took the trade I am not sure, we both mentioned how bad it looked and we still took it. But I guess that is part of trading and the part of the human aspect of it. I guess chalk it up to experience now, and not let that happen again is all we can do. Its not the maount of pips that were lost because it was a small loss but the fact we knew better than to take it in th first place...LOL I guess it shows we are only human too...

--NM
  • #2,324
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:28pm Jan 19, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Nicely done.

I just have to say that. Holding on to it is a good call.
Thanks EntropyLad,

It is a pretty slow moving pair and it takes awhile to get anywhere with it.

--NM
  • #2,325
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:57pm Jan 19, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting Custos
hm, there is still a support level on the monthly chart at around 1.5, then unchartered area.
Also it is right now at the channel bottom as shown in my chart. Still a waiting game. What do you guys think?
I see that level at 1.5 I was not zoomed out far enough to see 1999 and I think that is where it showed up it has been in place for a while.

As of right now I am not seeing much out here that I want to get into at the moment, I think I am going to sit on the sidelines and see if anything can get developed enough to be considered low risk, right now too many of these pairs are on the fence imo.

--NM
  • #2,326
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:53pm Jan 19, 2010 9:53pm
I was stopped out at .8700 to the pip for a -56pip loss, the British CPI numbers were definatly not in my favor, they were extremely bullish the pound. Anyway, on to the next one.
  • #2,327
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:49am Jan 20, 2010 6:49am
Hi All,

this morning I entered eur/jpy on 5min TF @ 7:00, still having to untrain myself from my previous sins, I exit with 20pips profit on the retrace instead of staying and appreciating the dymanic of the Red and Green MA's...

Trust the process - even if it is that of retraining...
  • #2,328
  • Edited 8:42am Jan 20, 2010 8:21am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Paulette
Hi All,

this morning I entered eur/jpy on 5min TF @ 7:00, still having to untrain myself from my previous sins, I exit with 20pips profit on the retrace instead of staying and appreciating the dymanic of the Red and Green MA's...

Trust the process - even if it is that of retraining...
HI Paulette,

Nice job on the 20 pips..

Sounds like we were looking at the same pair, I took a short entry on that pair last night, The 1 hour time frame was my setup chart and as of this moment I am stting on 81 pips, So now its a free trade I closed out half my position and now hopefully the trend will continue and I wil just follow it along with my stop.


--NM
  • #2,329
  • Jan 20, 2010 8:37am Jan 20, 2010 8:37am
Quoting NightMoves
HI Paula,

Nice job on the 20 pips..

Sounds like we were looking at the same pair, I took a short entry on that pair last night, The 1 hour time frame was my setup chart and as of this moment I am stting on 81 pips, So now its a free trade I closed out half my position and now hopefully the trend will continue and I wil just follow it along with my stop.


--NM
Looks like the second half of the trade may get stopped out I went to coffee came back and it was up 50 pips I am still in it but it may stop the second half out for 17 pips but I am going to let it go and see what happens.

--NM
  • #2,330
  • Jan 20, 2010 8:48am Jan 20, 2010 8:48am
Quoting NightMoves
Looks like the second half of the trade may get stopped out I went to coffee came back and it was up 50 pips I am still in it but it may stop the second half out for 17 pips but I am going to let it go and see what happens.

--NM
The second half just got taken out, so that trade is done, +17 on the second half. I guess that support area means business.

--NM
  • #2,331
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:00am Jan 20, 2010 10:00am
Gi Guys,
I wanted to post a couple of charts on the E/U pair, The weekly chart shows where I think the nex possible target could be if this down trending scenario plays out. The hourlly chart shows where we are now on the hourly trend, even though we are not trending on the 4 hour or or higher TF, it really looks more like a massive impulse wave to the bottom, so there is a chance of a big snap back imo, but the hourly certainly looks tradable.

So any thoughts on this hypothisis?

--NM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Weekly Down.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour chart possibly a trade setup.png Size: 53 KB
  • #2,332
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:01am Jan 20, 2010 10:01am
Hi,
Attached are some currency pairs to watch for the asian session. Those are probably a little risky, since the weekly is ranging on those pairs, but nonetheless worth a shot. I think they are all kind of viable for an Asian open break-out or swing trade on h1 to h4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overview 20.1.2010.gif Size: 101 KB
  • #2,333
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:04am Jan 20, 2010 10:04am
Furthermore, two pairs to watch for london session.
EUR/USD broke out of daily range to the downside. EUR/GBP did as well. However, EUR/GBP sitting at the lower part of the channel on the h1, so would wait till it retraces back a bit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overview london 20.1.2010.gif Size: 65 KB
  • #2,334
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:08am Jan 20, 2010 10:08am
Quoting NightMoves
Gi Guys,
I wanted to post a couple of charts on the E/U pair, The weekly chart shows where I think the nex possible target could be if this down trending scenario plays out. The hourlly chart shows where we are now on the hourly trend, even though we are not trending on the 4 hour or or higher TF, it really looks more like a massive impulse wave to the bottom, so there is a chance of a big snap back imo, but the hourly certainly looks tradable.

So any thoughts on this hypothisis?

--NM
haha, sorry, didn't see you posted eur/usd as well. I don't know, I see 1.37 as a much stronger support level on the weekly. 1.4 has been messed with quite a bit, just my opinion. For me 1.42 was the last big support level (on the daily) we went through now targeting 1.37.

What do you think?
  • #2,335
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:12am Jan 20, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Custos
haha, sorry, didn't see you posted eur/usd as well. I don't know, I see 1.37 as a much stronger support level on the weekly. 1.4 has been messed with quite a bit, just my opinion. For me 1.42 was the last big support level (on the daily) we went through now targeting 1.37.

What do you think?
but of course 1.4 is a very very round number, just hasn't been respected a lot recently in my opinion. 1.4 is definitely a danger zone.
  • #2,336
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:15am Jan 20, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Custos
Hi,
Attached are some currency pairs to watch for the asian session. Those are probably a little risky, since the weekly is ranging on those pairs, but nonetheless worth a shot. I think they are all kind of viable for an Asian open break-out or swing trade on h1 to h4.
Thanks for the heads up on those pairs Custos...

--NM
  • #2,337
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:28am Jan 20, 2010 10:28am
Man, i have to give it to you, nightmoves, you certainly have the moves...night or day. GBP has been mercilessly punishing the EUR like it owes it money. Holy smoke, batman!
  • #2,338
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:31am Jan 20, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Custos
but of course 1.4 is a very very round number, just hasn't been respected a lot recently in my opinion. 1.4 is definitely a danger zone.
I agree the 1.400 is a key area here is a daily line chart on the close, the 1.400 has held several time may do so again but I think a break below that level needs to be watched the line chart shows how many times this has been respected a little cleaner than the candle charts show (Blackeagel posted a line chart and I like the way the S/R levels stand out so I posted this one).

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Support and Resistance levels Daily.png Size: 57 KB
  • #2,339
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:32am Jan 20, 2010 10:32am
Quoting Custos
Hi,
Attached are some currency pairs to watch for the asian session. Those are probably a little risky, since the weekly is ranging on those pairs, but nonetheless worth a shot. I think they are all kind of viable for an Asian open break-out or swing trade on h1 to h4.

Thanks. Thanks. For caring to share all this with us. I appreciate it. Definitely going on my watch list. Besides, it gives me a window into how other intelligent traders trade and view trading setups.
  • #2,340
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:39am Jan 20, 2010 10:39am
Quoting EntropyLad
Man, i have to give it to you, nightmoves, you certainly have the moves...night or day. GBP has been mercilessly punishing the EUR like it owes it money. Holy smoke, batman!
I think I get lucky more than know what I am doing...

--NM
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